Speculation: Seravalli: Arizona looking to add, no longer subtract

[rt]

I totally forgot Hayton was a top five pick. Haha.

 

[Kai Yo T]

First round, sure

After that position need is a big factor.

It can be for sure. The farther you get into the draft the bigger each "tier" of players gets, meaning if you're picking 38th (just a random pick) there's most likely a bunch of players available that are all regarded equally as prospects. That allows us to pick the one that fills a need and it's still considered BPA.

 

[AZviaNJ]

It's always BPA, unless two players are equal, then position of need. That was stated by our scouting dept.

First round, sure

After that position need is a bigger factor.

 

[Schemp]

First round, sure

After that position need is a bigger factor.

...and the ability to trade up to.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

My ideal for this next season is a hope of Arizona playing hard / entertaining hockey with a few signature games, finishing somewhere in the bottom of the league standings-wise, which maximizes the chance of getting a high draft pick who will eventually turn into a 1D (or a different position of similar quality) a few years down the road. That's what I'm hoping for this year.

That's basically my ideal too, but not the part of the bottom of the league finish. The only time I ever even come close to wishing for that is if there is a generational player - McDavid, Matthews, Bedard - within our grasp. And then only if it looks like a trend early that we're going to finish that low - I was not a happy camper when Maloney went whole-hog tank for McDavid like he did.

I think the difference for me is that, admittedly based on a small sample size, I really trust our scouting department to be able to find talent in more places than just The Red Line's top-rated rankings. This is fairly new for me, because I have too many painful memories of previous Coyotes scouting departments basically picking names out of a hat, especially in the later rounds when they picked bloodlines instead of potential. But I have a feeling that a potential 1D might be hidden somewhere in our second round selections this season, and I think next draft - even if we miss the lottery - we have the assets to get a top-pairing defenseman (or maybe more than one).

 

[hbk]

That's basically my ideal too, but not the part of the bottom of the league finish. The only time I ever even come close to wishing for that is if there is a generational player - McDavid, Matthews, Bedard - within our grasp. And then only if it looks like a trend early that we're going to finish that low - I was not a happy camper when Maloney went whole-hog tank for McDavid like he did.

I think the difference for me is that, admittedly based on a small sample size, I really trust our scouting department to be able to find talent in more places than just The Red Line's top-rated rankings. This is fairly new for me, because I have too many painful memories of previous Coyotes scouting departments basically picking names out of a hat, especially in the later rounds when they picked bloodlines instead of potential. But I have a feeling that a potential 1D might be hidden somewhere in our second round selections this season, and I think next draft - even if we miss the lottery - we have the assets to get a top-pairing defenseman (or maybe more than one).

i know he's a bit of a different animal but the Draft Analyst podcast had an episode last year where he raved about Dudas and how he was a mistake free defenseman. Morgan has said that the Coyotes are excited about him but nobody is going on record just yet saying that he has top pairing potential. The cupboard may not be as bare as we think.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

i know he's a bit of a different animal but the Draft Analyst podcast had an episode last year where he raved about Dudas and how he was a mistake free defenseman. Morgan has said that the Coyotes are excited about him but nobody is going on record just yet saying that he has top pairing potential. The cupboard may not be as bare as we think.

I'll be honest - I started thinking that maybe our pipeline was in better shape than we thought when we let Lilleberg's rights expire so he could sign with the Lightning. EML was well-regarded and ready to play in the big leagues, like Moser was - so if he's expendable, we might be in a better position than a lot of pundits are saying.

 

[hbk]

I'll be honest - I started thinking that maybe our pipeline was in better shape than we thought when we let Lilleberg's rights expire so he could sign with the Lightning. EML was well-regarded and ready to play in the big leagues, like Moser was - so if he's expendable, we might be in a better position than a lot of pundits are saying.

we wanted and were going to sign EML but apparently there is something medical that scared our organization off. Didn't scare off Tampa though so you wonder....

 

[Kai Yo T]

Yeah. Always raises questions when you're team isn't willing but yet another team is.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Yeah. Always raises questions when you're team isn't willing but yet another team is.

Every team feels like they can fix the mistakes of another. That's why Max Domi keeps getting signed.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

We've got Duda, Lamoreaux and Kesselring coming...and we've already got Moser, Valimaki, Kolyachonok and Soderstrom...our D is just fine. We may not have a true #1, but having all the guys that would essentially be top 4 guys is good enough.

 

[RedBeard]

We've got Duda, Lamoreaux and Kesselring coming...and we've already got Moser, Valimaki, Kolyachonok and Soderstrom...our D is just fine. We may not have a true #1, but having all the guys that would essentially be top 4 guys is good enough.

Add to that a possible D taken at 12 or 38, a project D in the 3rd round, and a high chance we get another top D prospect in the top 10 next year.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Add to that a possible D taken at 12 or 38, a project D in the 3rd round, and a high chance we get another top D prospect in the top 10 next year.

Exactly...and there are quite a few stud Dmen in next years draft.

 

[Kaizen]

I'll be honest -

You're not usually?

 

[The Feckless Puck]

You're not usually?

Well, yeah, I am, but what I am also is VERBOSE!

 

[wbwing]

Everyone seems to keep forgetting Szuber. If he keeps this trajectory, he might be one of our top D prospects in a year.

 

[hbk]

Everyone seems to keep forgetting Szuber. If he keeps this trajectory, he might be one of our top D prospects in a year.

and he was the 5th D man we drafted last year.

 

[rt]

We've got Duda, Lamoreaux and Kesselring coming...and we've already got Moser, Valimaki, Kolyachonok and Soderstrom...our D is just fine. We may not have a true #1, but having all the guys that would essentially be top 4 guys is good enough.

I still think that’s a pretty bad pool of D for a club that stripped it all down to the studs to rebuild. A lot of work to be done, I think. But Dickinson or Levshunov would fix that quick. Would also be cool with Willander at 12th.

My hunch is we want Leonard, Willander and Strbak with our first three picks. If we get Sam Dickinson with like 8th overall or something next summer, We’d be sitting pretty.

Dickinson-Willander
Moser-Lamoureux
Duda-Soderstrom
Valimaki-Strbak

 

[TheLegend]

You're not usually?

Well, yeah, I am, but what I am also is VERBOSE!

 

[Jakey53]

Longish post incoming, conclusion's bolded near the end in TLDR form, the rest of this includes full context. And I don't need to talk about this anymore unless other ppl want to.

***

After thinking about it last night, I'm becoming more convinced that we most likely do not have enough quality players / prospects (at least not yet) to decide to start pulling out of the rebuild, at least not if we want a potential SC winner at the other end of this. Right now our best players / prospects are Keller, Cooley, Guenther (maybe Crouse) and a whole lot of magic beans in the form of future picks in the next few years. Comparing this to other SC contending teams, or other teams in a similar-ish point in rebuild (ie Buffalo, Ana etc), we are simply not as good as them in terms of quality of pipeline.

A lot of people seem to be making the argument of... "oh, when we try to get better, we probably won't get better anyway (and maybe we'll actually get worse) so who cares" and my response is a head shake.

The whole point is to be a SC contender at the end of this. To be one of the best teams in the league for an extended period of time. Among other things, that requires quite a few good players and good roster construction ie no real holes in the lineup. We've never had that since we've moved to AZ.

If instead we want to be a consistent playoff team for a few years, one that wins a series or two but never really has a chance to win the cup before fading into yet another rebuild? Sure let's end this rebuild early and let's expect a period of "success" like the early 2010s where we made the playoffs for a few years and made the WCF that one time... but never really challenged for the cup. I am not interested in that, at all.

***

Looking at it from the other direction, this is the ONE time that we can be bad and no one will care. There are no expectations. We barely have an arena, we don't (yet) have a place to play after this lease is done, we might even be moved after this lease is up and no one will be surprised. And yet, we're still going to sell out anyway because we only have 4600 seats. We're such a sh*tshow our top prospect Cooley isn't even joining the team this year, and no one cares because everyone understands where he's coming from.

And realistically no matter what we do, we're most likely not making the playoffs this year even if we sign every big UFA out there, which is not realistic anyway because top players don't want to come here right now.

So like... even if we do everything we can to win now, instead of missing the playoffs by 25 points maybe we miss by 15 points instead. Is there a difference? Before someone says something about "losing culture," Tourigny has us playing hard regardless of whether we finish with 60, 70, or even 80 points. But, regardless, to me, culture now is not an issue at all. Culture when Cooley et al enter their primes in 4-7 years? Yes that would be an issue, we can address it then if needed.

To me, right now by far the biggest concern is making sure we surround Cooley / Keller etc with enough talent to play with so that we have a chance of winning a cup while they're still in their primes or at least still productive players (like Ovi with WSH or Stamkos with Tampa). Imo, that's the only thing we should be concerned about right now, nothing else is even remotely as important. So the team is bad for another year or two, who cares. The team will be bad anyway, as long as there's a cup contending team at the end of this that's all that matters.

***

P.S. To be clear, I am not suggesting we trade Keller / Crouse etc to enter yet another rebuild. I am definitely suggesting we see this current rebuild through instead of pulling out early. Which I am surprised seems to be the minority opinion here, but so be it

rt said, and I agree. We are not pulling out of the rebuild, just out of tanking. We have to take the next step in this rebuild. I just read your first paragraph as your posts are too long for me. I fall asleep before I finish.

 

[Jakey53]

We've got Duda, Lamoreaux and Kesselring coming...and we've already got Moser, Valimaki, Kolyachonok and Soderstrom...our D is just fine. We may not have a true #1, but having all the guys that would essentially be top 4 guys is good enough.

Looking at those players as of today, it is not very promising. I love Valimaki's personality, but was he a flash in a pan last year, Kesselring played like barely a third pairing, same with Soderstrom, and the rest are really unknown. Moser is the best of the bunch but that isn't saying much. BA has to go after a one or two D.

 

[hbk]

Looking at those players as of today, it is not very promising. I love Valimaki's personality, but was he a flash in a pan last year, Kesselring played like barely a third pairing, same with Soderstrom, and the rest are really unknown. Moser is the best of the bunch but that isn't saying much. BA has to go after a one or two D.

We won’t take a big step forward until defence matures. This is why i think we will take a step back this year.

 

[Jakey53]

We won’t take a big step forward until defence matures. This is why i think we will take a step back this year.

To early to tell, but I think BA wants to improve over last year.

 

[hbk]

To early to tell, but I think BA wants to improve over last year.

A lol of things fell our way to reach 70 points. I don’t think improvement is necessarily a straight line. We can be better as a team but have kess points.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

We won’t take a big step forward until defence matures. This is why i think we will take a step back this year.

I agree, but not on the step back. When Cooley comes up I want to trade one of our top 6 forwards for a 1st or 2nd pair RD or a first pair LD