GDT: Sens @ NYI: Last minute edition - March 16, 2024 TSN5

[UglyPuckling]

One way to think about it is we have a -17 goal differential and we have -30 goals saved compared to average. Put the two together and we've got a +13 goal differential. Then look at the point totals of teams in that differential neighborhood.

Goaltending covers up a lot of problems. Think about those 30 goals against. That's 30 less conversations in the GDTs about either soft goals or play breakdowns. The game is so fast that you barely notice a broken down play when there's a save and the puck goes off the other way.

What impact do the 30 goals against have on stats? We give 3.47/60. Reduce the goals against by 30, that number changes to exactly 3.00. And if we gave up 3 against per game, we'd be middle of the pact defensively.

Another way to look at it is we give up roughly .5 goals against above average. We've got 12 one goal losses. How would one less goal against in 30 games change the W/L? Quite substantially I presume.

I’m not sure we are talking about the same thing (but maybe we are)? I’m talking about games where we lost and only managed to score one goal. I’m not talking about losing a game by one goal (a Senator loss with a one goal differential).

 

[UglyPuckling]

Of the 9 games we scored one or fewer goals (for reference, contenders like NYR and Col have 8, Dal 10, Bos 11, Car 12, Fla 14 so I don't see that as a area of concern), only (see *** below) 3 were loses by one goal (we were only shut out once btw). We have another 9 one goal loses, bringing the total of one goal games to 12. Then there are the 9 games where we got scored on with the goalie pulled, some of which would have been one goal losses if not for the en GA.

After that, there's the impact playing in front of unreliable goaltending can have game to game to account for, it kills momentum and deflates a team.

I wonder if we are talking about the same thing? Are you saying that we had 12 games in which we only scored one goal? Or, was it 9 games in which we scored only one (or fewer) goal per your first sentence.

I wasn’t talking about how many games we lost by just one goal. *** The part of the sentence where I inserted “(see Note below) makes me think we are talking about different things.

I was talking about how many games in which we only scored one goal. I’m thinking its hard to win a game when you only score one goal. Of course, the same point would be even more true if we didn’t score any goals. Anyhow, I’m finding the wording rather confusing and perhaps (?) there’s additional info bering provided that isn’t what I was talking about.

 

[Micklebot]

I wonder if we are talking about the same thing? Are you saying that we had 12 games in which we only scored one goal? Or, was it 9 games in which we scored only one goal per your first sentence.

I wasn’t talking about how many games we lost by just one goal. I was talking about how many games in which we only scored one goal. I’m thinking its hard to win a game when you only score one goal. Of course, the same point would be even more true if we didn’t score any goals. Anyhow, I’m finding the wording rather confusing and perhaps (?) there’s additional info bering provided that isn’t what I was talking about.

Sorry, I started in response to your comment on games we only scored 1 goal in, and how we compared in that regard to some legit contenders. In my quick look, we seem to compare pretty favourably thought I only grabbed a handful of top teams, I think even if you add the rest of the teams with a division playoff spot, so top 12 teams in the league, we'd still be middle of the pack at worst in # of game where we scored 1 or fewer.

I then moved on to games we lost by one goal, to bring it back to what kind of impact stronger goaltending might be expected to have on our season.


9 games is we scored 1 or fewer
12 games is we lost by a margin of 1 goal.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Sorry, I started in response to your comment on games we only scored 1 goal in, and how we compared in that regard to some legit contenders. In my quick look, we seem to compare pretty favourably thought I only grabbed a handful of top teams, I think even if you add the rest of the teams with a division playoff spot, so top 12 teams in the league, we'd still be middle of the pack at worst in # of game where we scored 1 or fewer.

I then moved on to games we lost by one goal, to bring it back to what kind of impact stronger goaltending might be expected to have on our season.


9 games is we scored 1 or fewer
12 games is we lost by a margin of 1 goal.

OK. In summary then, there were 9 games in which we scored only one (or zero) goal. I think it's going to be tough for a team to win when it scores only one goal (or zero of course). Listing the number of "one goal games” that other teams have is good info though.

I’m not debating that goaltending hasn't been an issue and needs to improve btw. But, I don’t think its the only issue either.

 

[Micklebot]

OK. In summary then, there were 9 games in which we scored only one (or zero) goal. I think it's going to be tough for a team to win when it scores only one goal (or zero of course). Listing the number of "one goal games” that other teams have is good info though.

I’m not debating that goaltending hasn't been an issue and needs to improve btw. But, I don’t think its the only issue either.

Ok, but our number of games only scoring 1 or less doesn't appear to be unusual among contenders, so I don't see how that suggests we have other problems, unless you think Dal, Col, Car, Bos, and NYR share that problem?

 

[Cosmix]

Goaltending is part of the team.

When we got swept by buffalo in 1999, they didn't have a deeper team...or more star power, but they did have much better goaltending.

Gotta include goaltending in your analysis.


Didn't we always get outshot and were a minus team under Boucher?

What he was great at was game management. We would get the most points we could out of being a minus team getting outshot often.

Interesting question. I had to do a few searches before I could find some stats on Shots for and against under Boucher. Here is what I found.

Boucher was head coach at the start of the 2016-17 season. He was dismissed in March 2019 before the end of the season.

Season. S/GP. SA/GP
2018-19. 29.62 35.74
2017-18. 30.67 33.07
2016-17. 30.04 30.09

Boucher focussed on defensive play in his first season. SA/GP rose after that.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Ok, but our number of games only scoring 1 or less doesn't appear to be unusual among contenders, so I don't see how that suggests we have other problems, unless you think Dal, Col, Car, Bos, and NYR share that problem?

The mention of “other problems” was more a general comment.