Not getting the right matchups isn’t the issue. Having a terrible team is.
If you’re so dependent on matchups that you do relatively well at home and get destroyed on the road, you don’t have enough NHL quality players to be competitive against other NHL teams.
Sens have too many players getting caved in.
Wait, have you seen the numbers I posted about how we fare at home vs on the road?
Home : 5-6-1 (25th in P%), 36 GF, 36 GA (which is 3.0 GF/GP and 3.0 GA/GP)
Road : 4-13-0 (31st in P%), 39 GF, 79 GA (which is 2.29 GF/GP and 4.65 GA/GP)
I mean, that's pretty telling. But you're right we have too many weak players. It's not that they can't play in the NHL, it's just that they're playing way above their capacities because of the lack of good established players (normal in a rebuild but you need some kind of limit, look at the Kings for example who have some strong veterans)
Now look at that :
At HOME, among 201 D-men who played at least 80 minutes at ES, ranked from worst (had to lower it to 80 mins because we played less at home) :
CA/60 : Coburn 3rd, Zub 23rd,
Zaitsev 31st, Chabot 39th,
Gudbranson 70th,
Reilly 94th
SA/60 : Coburn 10th,
Gudbranson 18th,
Zaitsev 52th, Chabot 65th, Zub 114th,
Reilly 138th
SCA/60 : Coburn 10th,
Zaitsev 105th, Chabot 115th, Zub 122th,
Gudbranson 129th,
Reilly 150
HDCA/60 : Coburn 77th, Chabot 86th,
Zaitsev 128th,
Gudbranson 131, Zub 188th,
Reilly 191
GA/60 :
Gudbranson 18th, Chabot 35th, Coburn 111th,
Zaitsev 123rd,
Reilly 130th, Zub 137th
On the ROAD, among 178 D-men who played at least 100 minutes at ES, ranked from worst :
CA/60 :
Zaitsev 12th,
Gudbranson 14th, Chabot 21st,
Reilly 85th, Brannstrom 140th, Zub 158
SA/60 :
Zaitsev 13th,
Gudbranson 18th, Chabot 28th,
Reilly 57th, Zub 161st, Brannstrom 163
SCA/60 : Brannstrom 4th, Chabot 5th,
Gudbranson 6th,
Zaitsev 13th,
Reilly 43rd, Zub 84th
HDCA/60 : Chabot 8th,
Gudbranson 10th, Brannstrom 12th,
Zaitsev 19th,
Reilly 28, Zub 96
GA/60 :
Reilly 3rd (Djoos and Hughes are the only worse),
Zaitsev 5th, Chabot 12th, Zub 23rd,
Gudbranson 64th, Brannstrom 71th
Conclusions :
Of course, advanced stats don't tell the whole story but we can notice some disperancies. Keep in mind, guys at home from other teams can have more favorable matchups too.
Our best "shutdown" D-man is 25 y/o rookie from Russia who doesn't speak english and wasn't played until the 9th game...
Looking at that, it seems that Reilly and Zaitsev (and Gudbranson to a smaller extent) are getting ABUSED on the road. I think opposing teams target those 3 as to when to send their best guys, which sounds pretty logic to be honest. Problem is they play on all 3 pairings most of the time lol. In the end, the whole defense gets abused. I would like to do that exercice for the forwards
Chabot also get abused on the road but he plays way too much, against top competition and doesn't have a good partner. He absolutely needs his Methot if we want to go anywhere.
This isn't perfect because Coburn has played less than 100 ES TOI on the road and Brannstrom has played less than 80 ES TOI at home but didn't want to change all the criterias after the fact lol. I'm fast but it's still a bit of work