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#GirlBoss #Vibes
- Jan 12, 2008
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Losing as much as possible does not equal Dahlin, just like losing as much as possible doesn't equal handing Colorado Jack Hughes. This isn't 1993. The worst team in the league now has a better chance of picking 4th than they do picking 1st, 2nd or 3rd [happened to Colorado last season].
The worse you finish, the better odds you get, but the odds are at least 80% for every team to not get the 1st overall pick.
Now, there's the argument that since you can't drop more than 3 spots, the lower you finish, the better since you'll at least get a top 4 pick if you're the worst, or a top 5 pick if you're 2nd worst. That I understand. But too often people will comment on how we need to tank to ensure Dahlin, or how stupid the Duchene trade was because we might've handed Colorado Jack Hughes [never does anyone mention anyone else in that draft that Colorado might get, even though they will have, at best, a 20% chance at Hughes].
I'm sure you understand how it all works and maybe you were just oversimplifying things, but inevitably with these draft lottery rules, it's partially about being a bad team, but so much more about getting lucky. I've focussed on Ottawa getting every top prospects not named Dahlin and Svechnikov, just because the odds are so far against us, even if we do finish dead last.
Yes but finishing dead last increases our chances compared to say 4th last by an order of magnitude. There is luck that goes into it and also the percentages mean something as well. I do agree that it is not cut and dry like years past when the lottery didn't exist.