New article by Wayne Scanlan on Sportsnet.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/senators-wont-competitive-prioritize-talent-bottom-line/
"According to CapFriendly, the hockey writer’s favourite summertime source, the Senators are saving $10.1 million from injury insurance payments and another $5.5 million in salary bonuses paid by rivals before trading players to Ottawa (Artem Anisimov, Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown).
Are you sensing a pattern here?"
The measure of any org is:
being 1 of the 2 teams that win a championship each year.
Or
Final 4 competing for a championship
Their are now 29 losing orgs each year.
Last time competing in the final 4:
Toronto 94 playoffs - 25 years ago.
Senators 2017 playoffs 2 yr ago.
Last time winning a championship:
Toronto 67 SC champ in a 6 team league - 52 yr ago
Senators 07 EC champs in a 30 team league - 12 yr ago
In what world should any Senators fan take org advice from Hockey media of the worst Sport org in NA.
I have developed 40+ Hockey theorems since 05-06.
High danger area homeplate (05-06) from 40-50 yr old observations.
I first posted my 2010 cup core theory around April 2016.
Vegas selected 100% of the players available in exp draft that fit my cup core theory.
Just before the exp draft I said they would be GA competative for a cup final.
The theory was based on my identification of the most important goal diff mechanism. GA.
And
Identifying the repetative rosters that fit all my theories and had competed in the final 4 for the past 25 years.
Toronto has forward depth.
Like Calgary’s
But they lacked the Open HIgh Danger Shot 2D-1G
2D - 3+(4 preferred) top 60 open HD Sh Density dmen.
1G - Top 10 Open HD sh save% goalie measured versus baseline established by Dpairs.
Their 2 types of shot measures
1. density: ( homeplate)
Defined x,y location in OZ which created a Cone.
But most on TSN 1260 alllen Mitchell’s Blog site Lowetide called it Rickisbox. 12 years later Media started calling it Homeplate.
I discovered in my mapping that avg HD sh ( homeplate) goes in 5 times more than avg LD shot( perimeter)
2. Quality: (06-07) (Open/ closed shots)
It was from a 45 yr old observation of a 7 yr old ( Ron Gunville) playing with us 10 year olds.
He moved with the ball like a table hockey goalie.
The puck hit him at a high rate.
Theorem: (06-07) hit goalie, Table Hockey Goalie movement
Closed shot: pucks that hit goalies have 0% chance of going in.
They have a density of 0
Open shot: pucks that hit the open space in net that require a goalie to make a save. >0 density
Oh!
You may recognize the name Ron Gunville.
I contacted him last year to get his permission to use his name.
He is Player Personel director of this years WHL champs the PA Raiders.
Their are teams that have Dpairs that greatly reduce the % of open shots and HD shots.
Theorem: (05-06) dpairs establish the save% baseline which goalies perform around.
Ottawa has superior Open High Danger Defence and Goalie depth than Toronto.
40% more top GA teams make the final than top GF teams.
7 of 8 final 4 teams are top GA teams.
That is why TO has bombed out before final 4
Last few years.
It only takes:
1. A Top open HD def sys coach like
Gallant, Tippett, Trotz, Deboer, Sutter, Berube, MacT
2. A top 10 open HD save% goalie like
Fluery. Binnington, Murray, C. Andersson, Holtby, Rollasson, Smith ........
3. 3+(4 preferred) top 60 open HD sh density dmen like
Mcnabb, Schmidt, C. Miller, Sbisa, Garisson, Engelland, Hjarlmasson, Larsson, Benning, Dumoulin, Matta, Lovejoy, Hainsey, Methot, Orpik, Niskanen, Spacek, Pronger, J. smith, Staios, Greene
Theorem: (06-07)0% Corsi.
0% corsi have 0% chance of going in the net.
0% corsi = (blocks + forced misses + closed shots)
Theorem: (07-08) Elite 0% Corsi dmen generate the lowest % of open shots per corsi.
Dmen like Russell, DeHaan, Stevens, Niedermeyer, Odelin, Daneyko, Albelin, Driver......
You can get a top HD pair by pairing a top 0% corsi Dman with a top 60 HD dmen. The pair will get the HD dmans usual results.
Their is further complexity of GA issue of 3F-1R-1D-1G structure versus 3F -2D-1G.
The rover based structure causes a higher % of uncovered open HD shots to the rovers side that he has abandoned.
The last 3 years GM’s have been pushing for Rover driven offence.
we have seen the save % median drop from the higher % of 3-1-1-1 structures.
15-16 .918, top 5 range .924 to .930
To
18-19 .912, top 5 range .927 to .934
Yet the standard of top goaltending is improving.
2 championship teams 29 losing orgs each year.
Sadly in the current NHL fans are looking at D like the ChL game were goaltending is like the 80’s NHL median save% of .875.
Rovers work in junior cause CHL goaltending sucks.
The top 5 rovers in the game generate even offence like a #6 to #9 fwd.
All the rest are #10-#14 forward level of Evp/60.
Sadly Senators seem to be moving away from 3-2-1 structure Dmen in their prospect pool.