Senators have given up a goal on the 1st or 2nd shot against 20 times this year

[ijuka]

You can’t just double the percentage, no.

Imagine a coin with 50% heads. Your odds of getting heads on one of two coin flips is definitely not 2*50=100%.

P(scoring) = .1173
P(not scoring) = 1 - .1173 = .8827
P(not scoring, twice) = .8827 * .8827 = .7792
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - P(not scoring, twice)
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - .7792 = .2208

So, 22.08%

Thank you, It's good to keep the maths accurate.

Except, I'd say that power play shots and 3on3 shots have a higher chance to score than 5on5 shots and during the first 2 shots, it's less likely that there is a power play, so these probabilities probably need to be adjusted still.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Make that 21 times

 

[Golden_Jet]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

No
If the first shot doesn’t go in, there’s an 11.73% (assuming math was correct), of the second shot going in.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Thank you, It's good to keep the maths accurate.

Except, I'd say that power play shots and 3on3 shots have a higher chance to score than 5on5 shots and during the first 2 shots, it's less likely that there is a power play, so these probabilities probably need to be adjusted still.

No the original 11.73% calculation, includes all PP and PK’s, OT etc, for the season.
If it was 5 on 5 shots, the original calculation, then yes would be different numbers.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

I wasn't going to get into the Empty Net goals but that would complicate it more

Empty nets obviously skew the numbers, but it's also worth pointing out that the vast majority of the time the first shot or two in the game does not happen on the PP or 4v4 or 3v3 where the percentage of shots that end up being goals is a lot higher than at even strength.

It's also worth pointing out that the Sens have the lowest save percentage in the league. Most teams are not giving up goals on 22% of shots on average.

I don't have the stats for other teams but I imagine the number of times other teams have been scored on on the first two shots of the game is significantly lower than 21 times this year.

 

[Bleedred]

I'm really surprised. I always thought that Korpisalo deal was the best deal signed last July 1st. This is just very hard for me to process. How can Korpisalo possibly be so bad?

 

[Bleedred]

He did, and his gsaa last year shows that. Unfortunately hes garbage.

Last year was the exception. This year is the rule.

Last year was an up year. He's been a bad goalie for all but 3 years of his career and he was significantly outplayed by his goalie partners in Columbus in all but 2 years. Last year and his rookie season when Bob was hurt and struggled.

I honestly believe he's the worst goaltender in the league. There's several guys that are probably worse who get called up every year, but they're not mainstays in the league and if they are, they haven't been as consistently bad for 9 seasons and still kicking around the league and getting 5 year deals because of one up season.

I said on July 1st this was the worst contract of UFA day in 2023. It still remains the worst contract signed that day.

It had to make the goalie union happy though. Because it's gonna make a lot of goalies money when they see this guy got that deal and they're better than him. Because almost everybody is better than him.

Korpisalo was legit good a year ago. (As was Forsberg)

But his confidence looks totally shot now.

He was legit good last year.

Have you seen the rest of his career though? It's littered with seasons that are on par with this current one......

 

[majormajor]

Have you seen the rest of his career though? It's littered with seasons that are on par with this current one......

I did, I'm a Jackets fan.

Korpisalo was playing through hip problems for a lot of those seasons, that's why many folks thought he had turned a corner after getting double hip surgery and then having the great year he had last year.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

On a 30 shot game, that’s works to about 0.5-0.6 goals.

 

[Kegu]

Last year was the exception. This year is the rule.

Last year was an up year. He's been a bad goalie for all but 3 years of his career and he was significantly outplayed by his goalie partners in Columbus in all but 2 years. Last year and his rookie season when Bob was hurt and struggled.

I honestly believe he's the worst goaltender in the league. There's several guys that are probably worse who get called up every year, but they're not mainstays in the league and if they are, they haven't been as consistently bad for 9 seasons and still kicking around the league and getting 5 year deals because of one up season.

I said on July 1st this was the worst contract of UFA day in 2023. It still remains the worst contract signed that day.

It had to make the goalie union happy though. Because it's gonna make a lot of goalies money when they see this guy got that deal and they're better than him. Because almost everybody is better than him.


He was legit good last year.

Have you seen the rest of his career though? It's littered with seasons that are on par with this current one......

And? You seem to have my confused with someone who said otherwise.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'm really surprised. I always thought that Korpisalo deal was the best deal signed last July 1st. This is just very hard for me to process. How can Korpisalo possibly be so bad?

Who was arguing the opposite? Was pretty widely acknowledged as a terrible signing the moment it happened by HF.

There's always a couple Sens fans who would reflexively defend their team when all of HF is crapping on the Sens after Dorion would make a headscratching move, but I can tell you the Sens board wasn't thrilled with the move.

 

[Bleedred]

Who was arguing the opposite? Was pretty widely acknowledged as a terrible signing the moment it happened by HF.

There's always a couple Sens fans who would reflexively defend their team when all of HF is crapping on the Sens after Dorion would make a headscratching move, but I can tell you the Sens board wasn't thrilled with the move.

I was merely being sarcastic.

This was not met well by most fans.

I don't think most roasted it like I did, but I think the general consensus was this was not a good move, if not just for the term.