Senators have given up a goal on the 1st or 2nd shot against 20 times this year

[Hale The Villain]

With the Devils just scoring against the Sens on their second shot of the game, the Sens' goalies have now given up a goal against on the first/second shot 20 times in 76 games this year.

Pretty crazy stat that illustrates the struggles in net and on defense that the Sens have had this year.

Click to read more...

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

 

[Ezekial]

Proof that it's an anomaly season and they will be playoff bound next year.

 

[jbeck5]

Proof that it's an anomaly season and they will be playoff bound next year.

Lol stop.

Haven't we learned.

 

[NVious]

Matt Murray is available this offseason

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

 

[Divine]

I heard Korpisalo looked great after having surgery last year?

 

[Kegu]

I heard Korpisalo looked great after having surgery last year?

He did, and his gsaa last year shows that. Unfortunately hes garbage.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

 

[MikeyMike01]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

You can’t just double the percentage, no.

Imagine a coin with 50% heads. Your odds of getting heads on one of two coin flips is definitely not 2*50=100%.

P(scoring) = .1173
P(not scoring) = 1 - .1173 = .8827
P(not scoring, twice) = .8827 * .8827 = .7792
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - P(not scoring, twice)
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - .7792 = .2208

So, 22.08%

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

You can’t just double the percentage, no.

Imagine a coin with 50% heads. Your odds of getting heads on one of two coin flips is definitely not 2*50=100%.

P(scoring) = .1173
P(not scoring) = 1 - .1173 = .8827
P(not scoring, twice) = .8827 * .8827 = .7792
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - P(not scoring, twice)
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - .7792 = .2208

So, 22.08%

Correct from a purely statistical point of view, also a 1.37% chance of conceding a goal on each of the first two shots.

There is probably some game theory (way beyond me) to make the answer more complicated.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

You can’t just double the percentage, no.

Imagine a coin with 50% heads. Your odds of getting heads on one of two coin flips is definitely not 2*50=100%.

P(scoring) = .1173
P(not scoring) = 1 - .1173 = .8827
P(not scoring, twice) = .8827 * .8827 = .7792
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - P(not scoring, twice)
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - .7792 = .2208

So, 22.08%

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

I wasn't going to get into the Empty Net goals but that would complicate it more

 

[BayStBullies]

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

I wasn't going to get into the Empty Net goals but that would complicate it more

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

 

[NyQuil]

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

I don't recall the Senators appealing to the league over it.

 

[Dolemite]

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

This is why the Sens will never win if they get their pretty pink panties in a bunch over stupid shit like this.

Winners don’t cry over this.

Brady isn’t a winner. Teams know they can get under his skin really easily especially after this.

If he wants to win, he’s got to grow and shut the f*** up.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

This happened with the Oilers a few years back.

The problem was coaching. Players weren't prepared (including the goalie).

Hire Jay Woodcroft.

 

[swiftwin]

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

A Leafs fan talking about empty net goals? I'm surprised you haven't crosschecked someone in the face and cried to the league about it yet.

 

[swiftwin]

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

That's 18% higher than the Sens average, which is already the worst average in the league. I would say that's statistically significant.

 

[HaNotsri]

If Ottawa could just stop the first shot of the game from happening they would win 100% of their games.

 

[The Management]

I thought Korpisalo was going to work out there.

 

[Albatros]

It's hardly on the goalie alone if the team doesn't enter the ice ready to fight.

 

[ismelofhockey]

I'm just surprised Hischier wasn't crosschecked in the face for depositing the puck in the empty net long after the final horn. I was told this kind of thing was really disrespectful and that any NHL player would react with pure unadulterated rage...

 

[majormajor]

Korpisalo was legit good a year ago. (As was Forsberg)

But his confidence looks totally shot now.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

 

[Avs2022]

It will be ok. I'm pretty sure the Avs do the same thing.