Speculation: 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft

[HoseEmDown]

The reason you expose McDonagh to Seattle is because he has a NTC until 24/25 so would be hard to move him going forward. We definitely could still use him the next few years but when Sergachev and Cernak are due raises we will need his cap gone and might be hard to do. If he gets selected we just pair Sergachev and Cernak and give them more minutes and responsibilities. With the money saved we could get a cheap bottom pair LD that's an upgrade over Borgman which we couldn't afford to do this year.

If we keep McDonagh and just trade Palat and Johnson we should clear up enough to keep Goodrow possibly, get a better depth D and fill out the roster. The reason you trade Palat is because he has one year left, we can't afford him after, having a career year so you extract more assets. Use those assets to dump Johnson or Seattle or somewhere else and we are good without losing too much firepower.

X - Point - Kucherov
X - Cirelli - Stamkos
Killorn - Gourde - Joseph
Maroon - Colton - Stephens

Moving the 10.3M of Palat and Johnson with the 3.5M we are currently over gets us 6.8M to fill out the roster. Obviously you resign Colton for hopefully around what Stephens and Joseph make so you have 6M to go. Foote gets 1M for 2 years then we are down to 5M. 1M for a backup goalie and now 4M. Barre-Boulet and Raddysh/Katchouk for forward spots at league minimum leaves 2.6M. See if Goodrow will take 1.75M for 2 or 3 years. Then you have 1M or so for a 7th D which should get you a decent player, maybe Kulikov or someone like that. The bottom 6 is still strong and you could move guys like Gourde or Killorn up if you wanted, maybe try ABB Or Joseph up there and give Colton the 3C spot if you think he can handle it.

Gourde - Point - Kucherov
Joseph - Cirelli - Stamkos
Killorn - Colton - Goodrow
Maroon - Stephens - Barre-Boulet
Raddysh/Katchouk

Hedman - Rutta
McDonagh - Cernak
Sergachev - Foote
Kulikov

Vasilevskiy
Backup

 

[OdinsFury]

I was in the camp of moving Palat a couple of years ago but apparently he has changed his diet and training and is in best shape of his life and his play has jumped accordingly. I now believe that we explore other options to reduce payroll that dont include moving Palat. As much as I like McD, it makes sense to move him at the end of the year. Cernak's play is now approaching that of McD which makes the latter more expendable. Hedman and Rutta should work long term as top pair and Serg-Cernak give you one of the best second pairs in hockey! Foote is showing that he can anchor the third pair and I think you do everything to put a veteran low cost Dman next to him!

 

[These Are The Days]

Hose has it right in that either McDonagh goes to Seattle now or we hold our peace on that for at least 4 more years. We are probably gonna have to take it. And if that was to happen I don't think Johnson has much more chance to go there either because to add him on top of it would mean Seattle is eating $11.75 million worth of our cap problems. That is a lot of money for an expansion team to take on from another club. We're gonna have to hope the trade market is warm on Killorn and Johnson both but the good news is they'll both have modified NTC's. Palat will too but it's the last year of his deal. We might just be able to ride that one out and say "Thanks for the memories" in summer 2022. Given how well he is playing I would like to be the case. Keep him for next year and buy some more time for other forwards to keep developing.

But anyway, those 3 guys are likely to be the bare minimum because right now we have 12 guys eating 96.3% of our cap space next year. To say we have to get out from under the old Yzerman contracts from summer 2017 is an understatement. With the exception of Palat (literally because his deal is ending) the flat cap is gonna make it impossible to honor the full duration those deals as originally intended.



Edit: but to end a "doom" post on a happy note, we'd have $13 million in space after those moves and I'm optimistic it's more than enough to bring back Coleman, Goodrow (but they're gonna have to work with us) Foote, Colton and anyone else I'm forgetting along with a bottom-pairing defender and a backup goalie.

 

[TampaBoltz]

It seems if McD was informed that he was going to be exposed for Seattle, he might waive his NTC for a team he would rather go to. Then we could get an asset back. I think our D would be fine if we can get a real solid D man for 2-3M to play the 3rd line. We are paying our goalie 9.5M to cover for any small mistakes made anyway. I'm not sold on Foote for the playoffs. We will see. But I would rather go 3-7 on the expansion draft so Joseph, Gourde, and possibly Colton could be protected. Palat, Killorn, and Johnson would have to be unprotected, along with Foote. If Joseph wasn't protected, I think they would take him quickly. His contract is real good and he's having a good year. I'm not sure if they would take the last year of Palat. It would be almost like a rental. Johnson plus a 1st would be the best for us. Also, we have to resign Goodrow. He is very important to the team. I think Coleman will be too expensive for us.

 

[The Gongshow]

I'm all for a Serg - Cernak pair, but we'd need a competent 3rd pair LD (easier said than done, I know). A reliable vet, perhaps. NOT SCHEN OR BORGMAN (I know Schenn is RD)

Johnson is out biggest problem right now because at least Killorn has value, Palat has value. No one has been biting at Johnson unless an asset is attached.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'm all for a Serg - Cernak pair, but we'd need a competent 3rd pair LD (easier said than done, I know). A reliable vet, perhaps. NOT SCHEN OR BORGMAN (I know Schenn is RD)

Johnson is out biggest problem right now because at least Killorn has value, Palat has value. No one has been biting at Johnson unless an asset is attached.

I think we're gonna be okay there. Next year there is a gluttony of 30-somethings who can play a 3rd pairing role for cheap. Because of the flat cap a lot of guys are just gonna be trying to get jobs. I think whoever we get as a #5/#6 will cost about as much as Rutta is now.

As for Johnson, fortunately for us he's shown a few signs of life and may not be a net negative in a trade

 

[Lightning1995]

I think we're gonna be okay there. Next year there is a gluttony of 30-somethings who can play a 3rd pairing role for cheap. Because of the flat cap a lot of guys are just gonna be trying to get jobs. I think whoever we get as a #5/#6 will cost about as much as Rutta is now.

As for Johnson, fortunately for us he's shown a few signs of life and may not be a net negative in a trade

There will still be a material cost to move TJ.

 

[Sky04]

Yeah we're not exposing McDonagh with this thin blueline

 

[HoseEmDown]

Yeah we're not exposing McDonagh with this thin blueline

With McDonagh and his 6.75M gone the blueline isn't thin because you can replace him with better than minimum salary talent. Bottom pair LD is one of the easiest positions to fill, if you have a little money, 700k isn't enough. Sergachev is already playing more minutes than McDonagh so he's already passed him in my book. You can get a solid veteran bottom pair D, a better 7th D than Schenn or even an upgrade on Rutta and make him the 7th D. Plus long term we need his money gone for Sergachev and Cernak raises.

 

[Byrddog]

With McDonagh and his 6.75M gone the blueline isn't thin because you can replace him with better than minimum salary talent. Bottom pair LD is one of the easiest positions to fill, if you have a little money, 700k isn't enough. Sergachev is already playing more minutes than McDonagh so he's already passed him in my book. You can get a solid veteran bottom pair D, a better 7th D than Schenn or even an upgrade on Rutta and make him the 7th D. Plus long term we need his money gone for Sergachev and Cernak raises.

While it could be true that Sergi has passed him it is pretty obvious the D can not be watered down any more. We need to add D not subtract it. Thats pretty clear after the last 3 games and if Heddy had not came back last night the only top 4 D we would have had was Sergi. Looks like Rutta may be out now though I bet Heddy will be sore and not able to go next game too so Witkowski will get an emergency call to link up with Schenn and Borgman. Injuries happen last year we had flexibility to cover them. Now not so much. Even getting McD back for next game the D will still be below what I would like.

 

[NatoGhost]

While it could be true that Sergi has passed him it is pretty obvious the D can not be watered down any more. We need to add D not subtract it. Thats pretty clear after the last 3 games and if Heddy had not came back last night the only top 4 D we would have had was Sergi. Looks like Rutta may be out now though I bet Heddy will be sore and not able to go next game too so Witkowski will get an emergency call to link up with Schenn and Borgman. Injuries happen last year we had flexibility to cover them. Now not so much. Even getting McD back for next game the D will still be below what I would like.

We need to add by taking away McDs cap hit and spreading it to other D spots. And still save a few bucks potentially. 6.75 and McD gone and two 1-3m D depending on their ability.

 

[JTBF81]

McDonagh's expendable. Not saying it won't hurt to lose him, but he's too expensive.

If we move McD, I bet we also move Killer and TJ, and that will leave money to sign a defenseman on a one-year deal. Maybe only about $2m, but enough for an upgrade over Borgman or Schenn.

Plus, Foote will have another season under his belt (not to mention Serg and Cernak, who are also still improving their games), so the defense will naturally improving.

Also, if you want to go by our performances without him, you can't just look at how we did when Cernak was out too. We played one game where we were just missing McDonagh -- and we won 2-1. Wasn't until Drago got hurt that the defense started to struggle. And of course it's a tiny sample size anyway.

I see you ran some cap scenarios downthread, and I generally agree with your estimates. I think you're cheaping out on the backup goalie a bit (I'd add another $0.5m there -- we're in a bad way if our backup is worse than McElhinney) but that's minor. But take that D corps and compare it to what we ran with last game. We'd have Cernak and some vet on a one-year $2m-ish deal rather than Schenn and Borgman like we had vs Carolina.

I agree that moving McD makes things easier moving ahead, but only if a solid 3LD(Kulikov or someone similar perhaps) and another piece(on the right preferably) are basically done deals. Matt Benning would be a solid add imo, at only 1 million aav and another year after this one, but who knows what he would cost in a trade.

The other factor is how Tampa moves McD and Johnson. Hopefully McD could be convinced to waive, and maybe Tampa could get some value in the trade, as I'm not sure Seattle would take him without some sweetening. Johnson seems earmarked for Seattle with some kind of add. Hopefully get a 2nd for Killorn and something maybe for McD(but no doubt if will be difficult, as even if he waives it will likely be for a small number of teams and his cap hit and remaining term will scare some teams away).

 

[AZviaNJ]

McDonagh to Seattle in expansion is a win-win. TB still has as strong a top 3 on the blue line as there is in the NHL. McD's spot could be replaced by a younger player(s). Chicago and LA suffered from holding on to expensive veteran players after cup runs. It would be a good time for TB to walk away from McD.

Seattle could really benefit from a vet Dman who is still playing at a very high level and is a tremendous leader. What a great fit for a (likely) young team. A much better choice than TJ or Killorn. I'd be shocked if Seattle passed on McD if he was available.

 

[NatoGhost]

McDonagh to Seattle in expansion is a win-win. TB still has as strong a top 3 on the blue line as there is in the NHL. McD's spot could be replaced by a younger player(s). Chicago and LA suffered from holding on to expensive veteran players after cup runs. It would be a good time for TB to walk away from McD.

Seattle could really benefit from a vet Dman who is still playing at a very high level and is a tremendous leader. What a great fit for a (likely) young team. A much better choice than TJ or Killorn. I'd be shocked if Seattle passed on McD if he was available.

I agree even though he is getting older and it's a high cap hit, how many teams will be leading a potential top 2 D exposed?

Although these days in the flat cap, cost conscious world it does seem every dollar is being scrutinized more than ever, so it's hard to say for sure.

 

[Byrddog]

We need to add by taking away McDs cap hit and spreading it to other D spots. And still save a few bucks potentially. 6.75 and McD gone and two 1-3m D depending on their ability.

Two cheaper D can not do what McD does. The Elephant in the room is no one wants to give up a forward to bolster the D. Sure Sure get rid of Johnson well thats not proven to be as easy as some suggest. There have been those who post JBB had a deal in place before Kuch had surgery. I do not believe that whatsoever if he had a deal in place to move Johnny he would have been moved same with Killer. There are no teams out there willing to help a team that just won the cup thats over the CAP unless it is a slam dunk deal like moving Vasi, Heddy, Kuch, Point players that would be a piece to build around. Johnson, Killer, Palat are rental guys who would be great to pick up at the deadline in there last year of the contract and thats just not the case. I can see a team being willing to trade for Sergi, Cernak and Cirelli but theres no way we can lose the defensemen.
The CAP struggle will follow this team into this offseason and we are going to be waiting for JBB to find a deal to move Johnson yet again and just before the deadline I suspect he will package a player with Johnny to finally settle this. Even if McD is exposed and taken the team is still going to be short$$$$ to fill out the roster and get defensive depth. So somehow we better win the cup again this year because it will not be as easy next year.

 

[Lightning1995]

Are Colton and ABB eligible for Seattle to take?

 

[HoseEmDown]

Are Colton and ABB eligible for Seattle to take?

Yes. So are Katchouk and Raddysh.

 

[JTBF81]

Almost every roster I've tried for next year looks better overall if McD is the pick for Seattle. Not saying that McD is a bad player right now or anything, but unless he agrees to waive his ntc then having him be taken by Seattle is the best chance to gain that cap space before he may start to decline. I think JBB is going to do everything he can to keep Savard, as moving 3 draft picks to just see him walk in July doesn't seem like something he has in mind. Having the balance on both sides of the defense going ahead will be good, and Tampa could still run something akin to this next year:
Hedman-Cernak
Sergachev-Savard
Kulikov-Rutta/Foote/Schenn
Obviously it may not be Kulikov, but someone similar to his level/ salary will suffice at 3LD. They could also trade the oft injured Rutta in this scenario to save an extra 1.3 if they desired.

Moving Johnson with 1-1.25 retention, or just buying him out frees up enough cap there, and then trading one of Killorn or Palat for value should get Tampa to where they need to be. They should be able to keep Goodrow, and then it would likely come down to Coleman vs Savard. Since they would be moving on from McD in this scenario, keeping Savard is more of a priority, and some other team likely proces out of Coleman anyway. After all that, Tampa's projected roster would look something like:
ABB-Point-Kucherov
Killorn-Cirelli-Stamkos
Colton-Gourde-Goodrow
Joseph-Stephens-Maroon
(If Palat stays and Killorn goes, then Drej can go 1LW and ABB at 2LW)

Hedman-Cernak/Savard
Sergachwv-Savard/Cernak
Kulikov-Foote/Schenn
Maybe keep a Claesson type as depth, along with Thomas and Foote/Schenn

Vasilevskiy
New backup

Tampa should be able to make a 22 player roster work in this case. It's possible with keeping McD as well, but the F core and the right side of the defense would both be weakened further.

 

[Lightning1995]

Let’s see how the playoffs go down, but right now I would protect...
Vassy
Heddy Serge Cernek Foote
Stammer Point Kuch, Palat or Guorde

Would consider replacing Foote for both Palat and Guorde, Colton Joseph or ABB

Let them take Cirelli or McDonagh. Have to move some salary

 

[HoseEmDown]

Let’s see how the playoffs go down, but right now I would protect...
Vassy
Heddy Serge Cernek Foote
Stammer Point Kuch, Palat or Guorde

Would consider replacing Foote for both Palat and Guorde, Colton Joseph or ABB

Let them take Cirelli or McDonagh. Have to move some salary

Cirelli should still have value in the league and some teams may still see him as a 2C. So you shouldn't just let him get claimed by Seattle. Palat would have value as well but he has just one season left and we most likely can't sign him so he's easier to lose if Seattle was to take him. But I would think Seattle would prefer the younger 2C who they would have control over for longer. So you have to make them consider him to be such that they would be willing to take Johnson if we trade Cirelli to them. We move those 2 and we are cap compliant for next season with a little wiggle room as well.

 

[Lightning1995]

Cirelli should still have value in the league and some teams may still see him as a 2C. So you shouldn't just let him get claimed by Seattle. Palat would have value as well but he has just one season left and we most likely can't sign him so he's easier to lose if Seattle was to take him. But I would think Seattle would prefer the younger 2C who they would have control over for longer. So you have to make them consider him to be such that they would be willing to take Johnson if we trade Cirelli to them. We move those 2 and we are cap compliant for next season with a little wiggle room as well.

If the Lightning can package TJ and Cirelli somehow to Seattle they should do it

 

[The Gongshow]

I'm not ready to move on from Cirelli just yet. Still provides PK as well. He'd be more valuable as a trade asset, rather than giving him up for free to Seattle.

McD, Johnson or Palat should be the ones we hope Seattle takes, and if we still have Palat or McD after its not the end of the world because we know they will help the team still.

 

[The Gongshow]

I also have this awful gut feeling Stamkos might retire in which we'd have 8.5mil to save us from having to lose anyone we don't necessarily want to.

That said, I'd rather have Stamkos than McD, Palat or Johnson (see above post)

 

[JTBF81]

I'm not ready to move on from Cirelli just yet. Still provides PK as well. He'd be more valuable as a trade asset, rather than giving him up for free to Seattle.

McD, Johnson or Palat should be the ones we hope Seattle takes, and if we still have Palat or McD after its not the end of the world because we know they will help the team still.

Yeah, agreed. There are way too many already giving up on Cirelli after basically one bad half season's worth of games, gimme a break. He's not going to be some throw in to get rid of Johnson, and as you said, even if JBB was thinking of a trade, he'd have good value to someone.

 

[NightMist]

Take Joseph, Johnson, Killorn..........please Kraken, don't take Gourde or Mcdonagh.