Speculation: Scheifele As A Calder Candidate

[lanky]

With Hertl out for over a month now, the Calder race is wide open. Does anyone think Scheifele can win it? If he keeps up his recent level of play he could be leading rookie scoring before the Olympic break.

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[wpgsilver]

I think the Jets would have to surge into playoff contention and he'd have to significantly outplay Mackinnon in the process.

In short, I don't think he's got a chance at this point.

 

[ihadtochangethename]

^what you said

 

[PhilJets]

lets try, rookie of the month for December first.. maybe if he gets a few more points this last few games of Dec.

 

[King Woodballs]

Like I said in the other thread.
He is barely in the conversation at the moment.

Could he have a chance? Yeah, but his play right now needs too extend until the end of the year really.

 

[KingBogo]

Its a long shot for sure, but if he continues with his current production he would end up in the 60 point range. If the team at least stays in the hunt until the last week or 2 and he has a few big games on national broadcasts its possible. That's a lot of ifs however.

 

[garret9]

So you're saying there's a chance

 

[Aavco Cup]

I think the Jets would have to surge into playoff contention and he'd have to significantly outplay Mackinnon in the process.

In short, I don't think he's got a chance at this point.

What do the playoffs have to do with the Calder? It's not a MVP award. It's a best player (rookie) award. After Hertl the next 7 rookies are all between 17 and 20 points. Whatever you say about Scheifele applies to all those players including MacKinnon. Staying healthy might be the most important thing. And don't forget about the D men Trouba Jones Krug Rielly Murray Gelinas if the forwards falter or don't stand out.

 

[Romang67]

His chance is much better now than 2 weeks ago, that's for sure.

If he keeps up what he's doing now, and Kane and Frolik keeps working with him, maybe?

 

[wpgsilver]

What do the playoffs have to do with the Calder? It's not a MVP award. It's a best player (rookie) award. After Hertl the next 7 rookies are all between 17 and 20 points. Whatever you say about Scheifele applies to all those players including MacKinnon. Staying healthy might be the most important thing. And don't forget about the D men Trouba Jones Krug Rielly Murray Gelinas if the forwards falter or don't stand out.

How do you quantify "best player"?

Its not purely based on stats.
Lets say Scheif and Mackinnon are essentially totally equal players, yet one player is a major reason his team is in the playoffs and the other is out of contention by the trade deadline, who gets the award?

I never said the Jets have to make the playoffs, but the Jets would need to be playing meaningful hockey. Putting up points on a bad team isn't enough to win the Calder when there are a number of worthy candidates.

I never implied that the things I stated were unique to Scheifele. So yes, what I said goes for all prospective candidates.
And yes remaining healthy is vital. Its the reason Landeskog won and not RNH.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

I'd go with MacKinnon at this point in the season, but if Scheifele continues on the trajectory he's on that could quickly change.

 

[Aavco Cup]

How do you quantify "best player"?

Its not purely based on stats.
Lets say Scheif and Mackinnon are essentially totally equal players, yet one player is a major reason

I never said it was based purely on stats.I would agree those intagibles could be a factor if the rookie was a major reason a team made the playoffs and it didn't show in his stats, but at this point you can't say that about MacKinnon. Duchene and Roy will get the credit if the Avs make the playoffs. Many rookies on last place or close to it teams win this award (including Hawerchuk) I can't remember playoffs ever being a reason someone won the Calder.

 

[wpgsilver]

I never said it was based purely on stats.I would agree those intagibles could be a factor if the rookie was a major reason a team made the playoffs and it didn't show in his stats, but at this point you can't say that about MacKinnon. Duchene and Roy will get the credit if the Avs make the playoffs. Many rookies on last place or close to it teams win this award (including Hawerchuk) I can't remember playoffs ever being a reason someone won the Calder.

The Calder is voted on, there's no ironclad criteria for how people select. I essentially outlined how I would select the Calder winner, and I think there are writers who vote who feel the same way.
I also never said a team has to make the playoffs.

Its also not particularly surprising that bad teams often have Calder winners... they get the best rookies.

Like I said, in a competitive year where there is no clear cut winner if a rookie can help his team contend for a playoff spot that could be a decisive factor.

You don't agree, thats fine you would hypothetically vote differently.
But I feel confident in saying that all things equal a rookie playing well in meaningful games is far more impressive that a rookie playing well in meaningless games.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

Nope, Trouba has been better.

 

[koth]

Nope, Trouba has been better.

Pretty much. Trouba has been miles ahead of Scheifele this season. Trouba has been arguably our best defenseman.

Pierre LeBrun said he has Trouba on his list of Calder finalists, and he gets a vote.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Pretty much. Trouba has been miles ahead of Scheifele this season. Trouba has been arguably our best defenseman.

Pierre LeBrun said he has Trouba on his list of Calder finalists, and he gets a vote.

It seems to be harder for a defenseman to win this award. But my Trouba jersey hopes you're right.

 

[Gump Hasek]

I'd go with MacKinnon at this point in the season, but if Scheifele continues on the trajectory he's on that could quickly change.

^This^

Here is the rookie scoring list...
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....position=S&country=&status=R&viewName=summary

He is already in the conversation, but would need to maintain some semblance of his recent torrid scoring pace going forward in order to take the award.

 

[Dempsey]

I'm not even a Jets fan, but I'll say that Scheifele definitely has a shot at the Calder. He's only three points back of second in rookie scoring and it's not even the new year yet.

Edit: Only two points back of second after last night's game, plus the top guy is hurt. How can anyone say he doesn't have a shot at it?

 

[SLAYER]

So you're saying there's a chance

What was all that one in a million talk?

 

[gbill2004*]

I'd say Schiefle is the favorite at this point. It's his to lose now.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Scheifele plays for a small market team that isn't going to make the playoffs. In short it'll be hard for him to get voters attention unless he puts up stats that are clearly better than anyone else.

Same reasoning applies to Trouba.

 

[cbcwpg]

I would say if Scheifele keeps up to or close to this point / game pace for the rest of the season , he's got a good chance to win it.

Interesting chain of events...

In the 3rd year of the Jets 1.0, a Jet ( Hawerchuk ) won the Calder
In the 3rd year of the Jets 2.0, a Jet ( Scheifele ) could win the Calder

The 1st Jet winning the Calder coaches the "potential" 2nd Jet winner of the Calder

 

[ps241]

Scheifele plays for a small market team that isn't going to make the playoffs. In short it'll be hard for him to get voters attention unless he puts up stats that are clearly better than anyone else.

Same reasoning applies to Trouba.

Jonathan Huberdeau says hello Joe

I kid I kid.......you're right Mark or Jacob would need to put up clearly better stats in this season where there are some very good high profile rookies on playoff bound teams.

That being said this thing usually doesn't get going until after Christmas and at the beginning of the season I said I would thrilled if both our guys were on the short list.

 

[Guardian17]

Scheifele would have to maintain his current pace for the remainder of the year.

Seems unlikely.

 

[ps241]

Scheifele would have to maintain his current pace for the remainder of the year.

Seems unlikely.

correct I do think Mark would have to go north of 50 points this season. It still depend on what happens to MacKinnon, Kreider, and Hertl but on balance short of injuries or a collapse by Colorado MacKinnon is in a decent spot if he maintains his current pace. Mark has been on a heck of a roll over the past 13 games but maintaining that roll would be next to impossible.

I am impressed with Trouba he is on pace for a 30 point season (normalized over 82 games) and I don't really believe we have seen the best he has to offer yet. The only guys ahead of him pace wise are Krug and Gelinas and they are both 22 year olds. Not bad for a big 19 year old kid who can play tough D and PK and is averaging 21:07 TOI a game which is #2 behind only Jones 21:34 for rookie D men.