Schedule

[Drivesaitl]

Looking at this site:

2018-19 NHL Summary | Hockey-Reference.com


They have a stat called SOS (strength of schedule)... which evaluates every team's opposition based on goals for/against and the Oilers have had the toughest schedule so far this season so it's not just our perception that the schedule has been difficult... it's reality.

That doesn't fully excuse their play so far.. because the other stat on that site is SRS which rates all the teams based on their results INCLUDING taking into account strength of schedule and the Oilers come out at 21st overall.

Honestly that's probably pretty accurate... because last season they were 21st in that SRS stat as well and can you really say the team is better this season than last? Not really. McDavid is better and the rest of the team may have actually taken a slight step back.. which keeps them basically exactly where they were last year. On pace for 82 pts right now feels about right as well... just an ever so slight improvement over last season.

Its an interesting reference but one has to take into account that the Oilers have a tendency to play good teams well and shit the bed in games sometimes against relatively easier opponents. So its hard to see whether normalizing of opponent difficulty level down the road really means much other in terms of pts.

I mean, it's certainly possible to implode later in the season, but having the toughest stretch to start the year and making it out in a good position would likely be a big boost to the team and help mitigate some of the primary reasons for a later "implosion" (lack of confidence, unable to handle the pressure of an upcoming tough stretch etc). Honestly, having the tough stretch at the beginning and making it through in a positive manner could be the best thing for this club. If they can make it through this first stretch at .500 I'd be fairly confident that they would be a near lock, particularly given the apparent further weakness of this division this year.

But the counter is if the Oilers punch themselves out earlier in the schedule due to inordinate work load early and overuse of key players. The way we are using some players, and the efforts of those players, is by my eye unsustainable. Other than McDavid I haven't seen anybody in this lineup capable of sustained effort across the season. Our go to players have historically had dog segments in the season.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Looking at this site:

2018-19 NHL Summary | Hockey-Reference.com


They have a stat called SOS (strength of schedule)... which evaluates every team's opposition based on goals for/against and the Oilers have had the toughest schedule so far this season so it's not just our perception that the schedule has been difficult... it's reality.

That doesn't fully excuse their play so far.. because the other stat on that site is SRS which rates all the teams based on their results INCLUDING taking into account strength of schedule and the Oilers come out at 21st overall.

Honestly that's probably pretty accurate... because last season they were 21st in that SRS stat as well and can you really say the team is better this season than last? Not really. McDavid is better and the rest of the team may have actually taken a slight step back.. which keeps them basically exactly where they were last year. On pace for 82 pts right now feels about right as well... just an ever so slight improvement over last season.

They're also 3rd last in PDO at 96.7 which likely owes somewhat to the difficult schedule, somewhat to the high danger scoring chance stats. The team's play seems to be trending in the right direction so if they can clean things up in their own zone and limit the bad gaffes that have lead to goals against you would think they should be able to rack up some wins when the schedule gets easier. Key words in there being "you would think."

 

[nexttothemoon]

They're also 3rd last in PDO at 96.7 which likely owes somewhat to the difficult schedule, somewhat to the high danger scoring chance stats. The team's play seems to be trending in the right direction so if they can clean things up in their own zone and limit the bad gaffes that have lead to goals against you would think they should be able to rack up some wins when the schedule gets easier. Key words in there being "you would think."

I don't honestly see them trending in the right direction.

I see McDavid carrying a team (13 pts on the Oilers 18 goals) that's been outscored 18-25 overall. The SRS stats show the team is essentially exactly where it was last season... which likely means another similar finish in that ~80 point range which is trending ~15 pts short of a wildcard spot.

8th worst team shooting percentage and 5th worst team save percentage this season puts them squarely in the mediocre/poor category... again.

Remarkably they finished last season with those exact team stats as well... 8th worst team shooting percentage and 5th worst team save percentage.

They are the definition of a team running to stand still... hamsters on the same wheel going nowhere fast.

 

[Paperbagofglory]

They are the definition of a team running to stand still... hamsters on the same wheel going nowhere fast.

But this is the style that the coach loves.

Hes the guy that tells his crew to pick up a tool and look like you are doing something so the big bosses don't notice you effing up on a project.

 

[Cypress]

I don't honestly see them trending in the right direction.

I see McDavid carrying a team (13 pts on the Oilers 18 goals) that's been outscored 18-25 overall. The SRS stats show the team is essentially exactly where it was last season... which likely means another similar finish in that ~80 point range which is trending ~15 pts short of a wildcard spot.

8th worst team shooting percentage and 5th worst team save percentage this season puts them squarely in the mediocre/poor category... again.

Remarkably they finished last season with those exact team stats as well... 8th worst team shooting percentage and 5th worst team save percentage.

They are the definition of a team running to stand still... hamsters on the same wheel going nowhere fast.

Quality of opponents is high right now though. Numbers might improve once we start facing more middle-of-the-pack teams.

 

[Cypress]

Has anyone ever actually done a study of how teams do on the 2nd of back to back games vs the 1st of the back to back games. I know intuitively you'd think teams do worse in the 2nd games... but my guess would be that there's likely very little difference in the actual overall results.

I actually googled it before my previous post because I was wondering the same thing as you. Results suggest there is a small difference. 3% according to this article.
Impact of travel and back-to-back games on NHL teams – Hockey Squawk

 

[Paperbagofglory]

Quality of opponents is high right now though. Numbers might improve once we start facing more middle-of-the-pack teams.

How many years of a team playing down to their competition do you have to watch before you convince yourself that there are no easy matchups in this league?

 

[Cypress]

How many years of a team playing down to their competition do you have to watch before you convince yourself that there are no easy matchups in this league?

So you think their numbers will be the same against an average of all teams compared to their numbers against the string of top teams in the league they've been playing? I'll believe that when I see it.

The team is by no means perfect, but I am seeing a lot more positives so far this year than last.