Schedule Format Once Seattle Starts Up

[Golden_Jet]

I think 56 games makes the most sense, doesn't sound like travel outside division.

US teams play their division 7 times each
Canadian teams play 8 teams each

 

[KevFu]

As much as I would love to see teams only play 1 game against each team in the other conference, it isn't happening. Expecting it to be 2 games vs each team not in your division (48) and then 34 split amongst the 7 teams in your division. 4 vs 1 and 5 vs the other 6. Unless, they add games to the season, which doesnt seem like the NHLPA is willing to do. HOWEVER, they may to add revenues to the pot after this past season and what is upcoming.

I don't expect people to do smart things. But if I could reach them, I'd gladly keep poking them with a stick til they see the light.

I find it hard to believe it was season ticket holders who wanted it changed. As a Rangers season ticket holder, I'll gladly sacrifice home games against the West for more games against the Flyers, Isles, Devils, etc. I loved that format. I know it will never go back to that, but wish it would.

And this is another thing the data shows, that I try not to get into much. STH want to see everyone in the league because they want more games with "traditional" NHL teams (aka, 1984-91 NHL teams).

@Ringmaster is right: It's the fans out West saying it. You know why? Because only 6 of those NHL brands in the Western Conference are more than 31 years old. What's the average age of a STH? The people filling out STH surveys in the West were predominantly fans of someone else first.

As a New Yorker in Phoenix metro, I understand it completely. As a stats nerd, I recognize it makes zero business sense and the league shouldn't cater to me when I can just by NHLTV.

 

[patnyrnyg]

Season ticket holders out west

People in Chicago, Los Angeles, Denver, St. Louis want to see Detroit, NYR, Philly, Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston.

In Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton they want to see Toronto, Montreal, Pittsburgh(Crosby), Washington(ovie), Detroit, Boston.

I think Crosby and Ovechkin used to come to Western Canada every 3 years and people were unhappy.


Edit: Divisional games were 8 times a year!!! Nobody out west wanted too see Phoenix, Nashville(back than), Columbus, Minnesota 4 times a year in their building over the favorable eastern teams!!!!

So, sacrifice games with rivals that have a bigger impact on play-off positioning for 1 game a year with Crosby and Ovechkin? Sounds wise.

 

[patnyrnyg]

I think 56 games makes the most sense, doesn't sound like travel outside division.

US teams play their division 7 times each
Canadian teams play 8 teams each

With 8-tem divisions in the US, that means each team plays each other 8 times. With the 7-team division in Canada, they will play 9 times against 4 teams and 10 against 2, assuming they use a balanced schedule.

 

[Ringmaster]

So, sacrifice games with rivals that have a bigger impact on play-off positioning for 1 game a year with Crosby and Ovechkin? Sounds wise.

Yes

Canucks fans don't care about more games with Arizona or Minnesota or Columbus would rather see Caps and Pens. YES

 

[MNNumbers]

Yes

Canucks fans don't care about more games with Arizona or Minnesota or Columbus would rather see Caps and Pens. YES

But you don't get to ignore Columbus and host Crosby and Ovechkin.... All 3 are Eastern Conference.

However, I think you are saying that you would rather have only 2 games vs the Central, and 2 games vs the Eastern Conference.

What about this question?
Would you rather have 2 extra games each year (one at home) vs Calgary and Edmonton (and Seattle, Vegas, all the California teams) and miss Crosby and Ovechkin every other year?
Or, would you rather have C and O every year, and the games you have now with CGY and EDM?

 

[patnyrnyg]

Yes

Canucks fans don't care about more games with Arizona or Minnesota or Columbus would rather see Caps and Pens. YES

What happens when Crosby and Ovechkin retire? Or, when the superstars land in the west?

 

[Golden_Jet]

What happens when Crosby and Ovechkin retire? Or, when the superstars land in the west?

That's why we will return to home/away in 21/22 instead of the crappy see the other conference once every 3 years in your building.

 

[KevFu]

Yes

Canucks fans don't care about more games with Arizona or Minnesota or Columbus would rather see Caps and Pens. YES

Right, but make a list of the Eastern Conference teams you want to see every year, and which Eastern Conference teams you would be okay missing a visit if it meant more games vs EDM/CAL.

You want to see PIT, WAS (while they have those stars), and TOR, MON, maybe NYR?

You mentioned CBJ, do you want to see FLA, CAR, BUF, OTT, NYI, NJD? What's your ratio of "Want" to "Not Want?"

 

[Flukeshot]

On Sportsnet Radio, Tim and Sid were talking about the potential financial benefit of making the CDN division permanent. (The biggest challenge being there are only 7 teams).

Does it help both US and CDN future TV deals? Assuming roughly a 4/5xDiv, 2xOthers set up.

NBC (or someone) gets 75% of all games US vs US. Including all playoff games up to the final 4.

Sportsnet gets non stop CDN content. Including a guaranteed CDN team in the final 4.

Ultimately it's all about revenue. I could imagine that is a good option to increase it.

National advertisers would be happy knowing their ads/logos are going to be seen in more relevant markets.

Downside? Are there really any for the US markets? Other than...

1 American team likely needs to become an honorary Canadian. Do you force Seattle into that spot? Do you throw Buffalo in? Does that US team get some financial compensation?

The downside for the CDN markets is travel time and perhaps expense having to go east west.

 

[46zone]

I am very vocally on record saying Home/Away vs the other conference is incredibly stupid, bad for business, and should be eliminated even though I'd have lived 90 minutes or less from Western Conference NHL teams for the last 20 years and my team would visit me half as much.


Most people don't even understand the reason we have Home/Away vs the other conference. It's NOT because "every team in the league should visit once a year," because that is a really dumb business practice. The reason we have it is because the members of the Central division want to play the Eastern teams more and the Pacific teams less.

The schedule is going to end up as:
34 division games (5 games vs 6 opponents, 4 games vs one opponent)
48 non-division games (2 each vs the other 24 teams)

Because that's the only way you can get people to agree to divide 22 Eastern teams and 10 Western teams into two 16-team Eastern/Western conferences.

I agree, would like to see more division games and more games against other eastern teams. Really hate the home and away, couldn’t care less about seeing west coast teams come to Philly.

 

[KevFu]

What happens when Crosby and Ovechkin retire? Or, when the superstars land in the west?

It's a really weird component here. Because there's plenty of superstars in the West and we keep talking about Crosby/Ovechkin combined they have led the league in points in only one of the last 12 seasons.

Draisaitl, McDavid, Kane, Benn, and the Sedin Twins make 7 Western Conference NHL points leaders in the last 11 years. Throw in a couple Tampa guys along with Taylor Hall of the Devils, and Corey Perry of Anaheim who've won MVPs.

The elite player status on the ice seems to be a lot different than ticket draw marketing aspect. I don't really have the time to commit right now to a massive data dump exploration of Taylor Hall's 2018 Devils road attendance to see if his MVP season led to an increase in ticket sales on the road, but a quick glance at ESPN's road attendance shows that more people bought tickets to see a visiting Arizona team than a visiting New Jersey team, so I'm guessing he wasn't a bump at the gate (And Washington was 26th of 31 teams in average road attendance; so I don't know what that means).

 

[KevFu]

I wonder if this pandemic will make the leagues assess the travel/schedule from a standpoint of "Why aren't we playing SERIES?"

The max number of flights you could have in an NHL regular season is 84.
Subtract one from every home game you have after a previous home game.
Subtract one for every back-to-back game you have at the NYC/LA teams.
Subtract one if you don't start and end the season with a road game.

(The NYC/LA teams would have a slightly different formula, since road games at each are not a flight).

Boston had 59 flights in 2018-19.
If you played every opponent on your schedule in a two-game series and alternated home/road series, you'd have a max of 43 flights; and less if you did 4 straight games in LA/ANA or NJD/NYR/NYI.

Pretty sure if you asked the NHLPA if they wanted 43 flights or 60 flights, they'd pick 43.

 

[MNNumbers]

It's a really weird component here. Because there's plenty of superstars in the West and we keep talking about Crosby/Ovechkin combined they have led the league in points in only one of the last 12 seasons.

Draisaitl, McDavid, Kane, Benn, and the Sedin Twins make 7 Western Conference NHL points leaders in the last 11 years. Throw in a couple Tampa guys along with Taylor Hall of the Devils, and Corey Perry of Anaheim who've w
on MVPs.

The elite player status on the ice seems to be a lot different than ticket draw marketing aspect. I don't really have the time to commit right now to a massive data dump exploration of Taylor Hall's 2018 Devils road attendance to see if his MVP season led to an increase in ticket sales on the road, but a quick glance at ESPN's road attendance shows that more people bought tickets to see a visiting Arizona team than a visiting New Jersey team, so I'm guessing he wasn't a bump at the gate (And Washington was 26th of 31 teams in average road attendance; so I don't know what that means).

This is easy to explain. Eastern media focus. When whatever percent of the US population lives east of the appalachian mountain chain, and the media itself has always been centered in New York, it should not be a surprise that what happens in the east has much better coverage.

Couple that with time zone issues. McDavid plays in the Mountain Time Zone. Most of his greatness isn't seen live by the high percentage of the country, because they are 2 hours ahead, and their day is done already.

This is NOT a commentary on NHL fans. Not at all. It's a commentary on how media does its business.

 

[KevFu]

This is easy to explain. Eastern media focus. When whatever percent of the US population lives east of the appalachian mountain chain, and the media itself has always been centered in New York, it should not be a surprise that what happens in the east has much better coverage.

Couple that with time zone issues. McDavid plays in the Mountain Time Zone. Most of his greatness isn't seen live by the high percentage of the country, because they are 2 hours ahead, and their day is done already.

This is NOT a commentary on NHL fans. Not at all. It's a commentary on how media does its business.

I completely agree. My stance that making a business decision to boost the sales of six games when it lowers the sales of another 10 is poor business.

 

[MNNumbers]

I completely agree. My stance that making a business decision to boost the sales of six games when it lowers the sales of another 10 is poor business.

And, yet, from an emotional standpoint, I can see why the Western fans want to see Crosby and Ovechkin. If all you hear on the national media is how great they are, and you see all of their highlights, you don't want to miss it.

True, in reality, that's not how it is. But, again, media perception.

 

[rojac]

Personally, 3 or 4 times a year is enough for me for any team, even rivals. I'd rather see as wide a variety of teams as possible.

In the end, it's just entertainment, so all this nonsense about finely balancing the schedule just seems silly. Too many fans take pro sports way too seriously.

 

[gstommylee]

On Sportsnet Radio, Tim and Sid were talking about the potential financial benefit of making the CDN division permanent. (The biggest challenge being there are only 7 teams).

Does it help both US and CDN future TV deals? Assuming roughly a 4/5xDiv, 2xOthers set up.

NBC (or someone) gets 75% of all games US vs US. Including all playoff games up to the final 4.

Sportsnet gets non stop CDN content. Including a guaranteed CDN team in the final 4.

Ultimately it's all about revenue. I could imagine that is a good option to increase it.

National advertisers would be happy knowing their ads/logos are going to be seen in more relevant markets.

Downside? Are there really any for the US markets? Other than...

1 American team likely needs to become an honorary Canadian. Do you force Seattle into that spot? Do you throw Buffalo in? Does that US team get some financial compensation?

The downside for the CDN markets is travel time and perhaps expense having to go east west.

The canadain only division with 1 US team will never happen. The Season ticket holders would be against it, the NHLPA would be against it and the NHL as well.

I agree, would like to see more division games and more games against other eastern teams. Really hate the home and away, couldn’t care less about seeing west coast teams come to Philly.

The season ticket holders would care since they are paying to see the games. They would never approve anything else than home and away vs the other conference.

 

[Anisimovs AK]

The last time the NHL had a schedule where two teams met 8 times in a single regular season was 1993.
The least amount of frequent visits by non-conference teams in the old format (9 road games at 15 teams per year) was three per team, but they'd be guaranteed to visit in year four. It was 2.4 visits from each team in a four-year stretch.

The last edition of the data I did can be found here:
Home/Away vs Everyone is Bad for Business

Basically, in the 4 or 5 times I've run the numbers, roughly 75% of the league or more sells more tickets for division/conference games than they do for non-conference games.

There's no correlation between which teams fall into the minority in any given year (Nothing like "Anaheim always sells more tickets vs the East." It's just random which non-sellout teams happen to draw a few extra fans for a non-division conference game than a division game).

That random variance is easily explained by more common attendance factors than opponent:
- Promotions/jersey retirements (usually scheduled to boost attendance of games vs lackluster opponents. I've been to two Islanders at San Jose games, and I have two Latino Heritage Night jerseys. It's one of their most popular promotions. There were 3x as many Islanders fans in Vegas as their were in San Jose).

- The day of the week the games fall on. (and Division games are more likely to be early midweek games, which typically don't draw as well).

- Variable Pricing structures (Buffalo is the textbook example: they charge more for CHI/TOR/BOS than teams like ARZ/FLA; and Arizona is one of the most sold-out games every year because it's also their cheapest tickets of the year).

Nvm

 

[CharlesPuck]

I subscribe to the belief that it's easier to get the votes for one team moving instead of three; and it's as simple as that. I doubt anyone had a "but what about relocation potential" thought process besides the people here on this board who are either supernerds that love drawing up league configurations, like @KevFu OR people who are gung-ho to get that team the hell out of Arizona.



Exactly. And the reason we have home/away right now is because that was the compromise that got the votes from people looking out for their own self interest.



I actually don't think it's that hard. I think the previous data would show making more money on ticket sales would be expected; HOW MUCH would be the debate.

The far bigger selling point is TV schedule and reducing the number of non-conference road games starting at 4 pm or 10 pm local time.

That being said, I think the travel aspect of my odd-looking three new Central/West conferences could easily be sold, too.

To recap, that was:
CAR, CBJ join the Adams (with BOS, MON, OTT, TOR, BUF, DET)
> Time zone changes, none. CBJ gets DET instead of PIT.

FLA, TB join the Norris (with WIN, MIN, CHI, STL, NSH, DAL)
> They'd get more games at the central, obviously, but less trips out West. Hockey isn't a 3.5 hour ordeal like baseball or football, it's a brisk pace, so they're done by 10:30 in regular season games anyway.

Travel wise, they make out quite well. NSH is the third-closest team to TB/FLA besides CAR and each other; there's
They're closer to STL and CHI than BUF and BOS. MIN and MON/OTT are similar distances.
They also would have one division opponent in Canada instead of three so less time spent in customs.

COL, ARZ join the Patrick (with NYR, NYI, NJD, PHI, WAS, PIT)
This is the one that sounds weird. But it's really not.

The six East Coast teams would be adding only TWO more games in a three-year cycle vs the 10 PTZ/MTZ teams in this format, but they'd play 18 of the 32 games vs the closest two opponents, and have EIGHT games drop from 10 pm starts to 9 pm starts, better for TV.

For COL and ARZ, the travel sounds horrific, but the Patrick are in a tight bunch, and the current Central isn't.

The shortest 7-game road trip through the current central in a loop would be 5261 miles (starting from either COL or ARZ).
The shortest 7-game road trip through my new Patrick in a loop would be 5183 miles. That's shorter.

It's better for players because it's one long flight East, then play games over a couple days, not traveling far between them, while EVERY TRIP in the Central division is a long one.

They can play 3 games in 5 nights in NY metro and stay in the same hotel, short bus to Philly or stuff like that.

It LOOKS crazy, but it works out to be better.

Lol. Dude you are out to lunch.

home and home is bad but Colorado and Arizona in the East is right... yikes man, yikes.

 

[KevFu]

Lol. Dude you are out to lunch.

home and home is bad but Colorado and Arizona in the East is right... yikes man, yikes.

I think everyone is too wrapped up in who's listed in which group, because they think you're never playing outside the group when it's practically the opposite. It doesn't matter who's listed in which group if the SCHEDULE and the TRAVEL is better than it was before.

The average distance between games would be shorter for the Avs in the Patrick Division, which would make their players a lot happier.
The problem with the Western Conference is that almost all those teams are very far from each other. You can't just look at "how far COL is from DAL, MIN, WIN, STL, CHI, NSH" vs "how far COL are from NYR, NYI, NJD, PHI, PIT, WAS" because they don't alternate home games/road games. They play multi-game road trips.

The grind of Western Conference travel comes from the medium to long flights BETWEEN EVERY GAME. It's doing 5 flights in 7 days.

Gallivanting from WIN-MIN-CHI-STL doing 400 to 700 mile flights every other day; or just chilling in a Manhattan hotel for five days.

 

[CharlesPuck]

I think everyone is too wrapped up in who's listed in which group, because they think you're never playing outside the group when it's practically the opposite. It doesn't matter who's listed in which group if the SCHEDULE and the TRAVEL is better than it was before.

The average distance between games would be shorter for the Avs in the Patrick Division, which would make their players a lot happier.
The problem with the Western Conference is that almost all those teams are very far from each other. You can't just look at "how far COL is from DAL, MIN, WIN, STL, CHI, NSH" vs "how far COL are from NYR, NYI, NJD, PHI, PIT, WAS" because they don't alternate home games/road games. They play multi-game road trips.

The grind of Western Conference travel comes from the medium to long flights BETWEEN EVERY GAME. It's doing 5 flights in 7 days.

Gallivanting from WIN-MIN-CHI-STL doing 400 to 700 mile flights every other day; or just chilling in a Manhattan hotel for five days.

dude, division rivals shouldn’t be across the country. Just listen to your argument, it’s nonsense.

 

[KevFu]

dude, division rivals shouldn’t be across the country. Just listen to your argument, it’s nonsense.

Edmonton to LA/Anaheim: 1720 miles
Denver to New York City: 1620 miles.

 

[patnyrnyg]

It's a really weird component here. Because there's plenty of superstars in the West and we keep talking about Crosby/Ovechkin combined they have led the league in points in only one of the last 12 seasons.

Draisaitl, McDavid, Kane, Benn, and the Sedin Twins make 7 Western Conference NHL points leaders in the last 11 years. Throw in a couple Tampa guys along with Taylor Hall of the Devils, and Corey Perry of Anaheim who've won MVPs.

The elite player status on the ice seems to be a lot different than ticket draw marketing aspect. I don't really have the time to commit right now to a massive data dump exploration of Taylor Hall's 2018 Devils road attendance to see if his MVP season led to an increase in ticket sales on the road, but a quick glance at ESPN's road attendance shows that more people bought tickets to see a visiting Arizona team than a visiting New Jersey team, so I'm guessing he wasn't a bump at the gate (And Washington was 26th of 31 teams in average road attendance; so I don't know what that means).

And, I have not once kept my tickets for Rangers-Oilers in a very long time. I have yet to see McDavid live, and frankly it does not bother me. If I go the next time they are in MSG, it is to see the Rangers, not to see 1 guy who is only going to play 20 minutes. And, when the schedule comes out and I decide on which games I am keeping and which I am offering up to friends, the western conference games are the last to be requested. If the Rangers had home games on back to back nights, I am likely only keeping 1. If it was Edmonton one night and a division game the other night, I am keeping the division game 9 times out of 10. Only time I am not is because it just happens to be a bad night/day. For example, until 2 weeks ago my daughter had hockey on Tuesday night. So, if the division game was a Tuesday I would keep Edmonton. But, western teams would rather have games against 10 or so teams to which there is no connection (no rivalry, less implication in the standings) just to get crosby and ovechkin into the building once each instead of more games with their rivals. Boggles my mind. Some need to give up this fantasy of the NHL "marketing their stars". This is not the NBA where Lebron plays the entire game and is involved in every offensive possession and even on a bad night is still going to score 20 points.

 

[MNNumbers]

And, I have not once kept my tickets for Rangers-Oilers in a very long time. I have yet to see McDavid live, and frankly it does not bother me. If I go the next time they are in MSG, it is to see the Rangers, not to see 1 guy who is only going to play 20 minutes. And, when the schedule comes out and I decide on which games I am keeping and which I am offering up to friends, the western conference games are the last to be requested. If the Rangers had home games on back to back nights, I am likely only keeping 1. If it was Edmonton one night and a division game the other night, I am keeping the division game 9 times out of 10. Only time I am not is because it just happens to be a bad night/day. For example, until 2 weeks ago my daughter had hockey on Tuesday night. So, if the division game was a Tuesday I would keep Edmonton. But, western teams would rather have games against 10 or so teams to which there is no connection (no rivalry, less implication in the standings) just to get crosby and ovechkin into the building once each instead of more games with their rivals. Boggles my mind. Some need to give up this fantasy of the NHL "marketing their stars". This is not the NBA where Lebron plays the entire game and is involved in every offensive possession and even on a bad night is still going to score 20 points.

This is a clear description of how (probably) most STH in the east feel. City pride, sports and old rivalries are very important in NY, Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit, etc. That's a character of the cities themselves, as well as the sports situation (at least as far as I can tell). I had an old friend born in 1912. He grew up in rural South Dakota with only 2 sports - baseball and boxing. The Yankees won too much, so he became a Red Sox fan. To this day, his nephews, nieces, great-nephews etc all are Boston fans in every sport. It's really cool, I think.

But, the whole flavor of hockey fandom feels different in the west. I think being from Minneapolis I am sort of in the middle. The western cities in general are much younger. There is not as much city pride in an us v them way. There are no cities in the west as close as NY and Boston to each other, so that sort of squashes out the rivalry thing a little bit. I think that makes fan interest more broad based. Pat always talks about his team - going to see the Rangers. I can understand that. The western fan also thinks a little like this: I want to see a good game. I'd like to see some great plays and some action. There is a little more desire for entertainment in there.

So, the league is sort of caught when they make the schedule matrix. It's hard to please everyone, and in general, the old eastern teams are going to be sold out a lot...I mean a lot....so maybe the league skews its decisions a little in favor of the western fan.

I don't know....those are just some random thoughts.