Sandin or Brannstrom

[Joider]

Sandin has greatly improved his stock this season but he hasn't passed Brannstrom. They may have similar point totals, Brannstrom had 4 more points in 6 more games, but Sandin was somehow a -10, with all those points, on a playoff team. Brannstrom was a plus on Chicago, and only a -2 on Bellville who missed the playoffs. Usually, I never look at plus-minus but that -10 surprised me. He's clearly not as defensively adept as Brannstrom, at the moment, but that could improve with time.

 

[Advanced stats]

Brannstrom. If you add a poll try to have a separate option for fans of the teams voting

So we can get more credible opinions, due to leafs/Sens fans watching them play more regularly?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Brannstrom but it is close. I liked Sandin in his draft year and he had a strong D+1. But Brannstrom has some truly remarkable tools and I suspect they'll translate to the NHL level quite well as well.


I think this is a scenario where you're potentially looking at a future #2D in Brannstrom, versus a future #3D in Sandin. Both will be good, Brannstrom just a tough better.

 

[Stand Witness]

Brannstrom has the better raw ability imo... Not sure he plays the same way as Sandin.

I think both will have pretty high upside and should both be top 4s relatively easily. I see Sandin as more of an all around situations guy, whereas Brannstrom is an offense first guy. With that being said, proper development could easily put Brannstrom into the all around category. Both are great first pass guys and both can QB a powerplay. Not many guys can skate up the ice like Brannstrom can... which is I think the difference between their upsides.

 

[tony d]

I went with Brannstrom

 

[biotk]

Sandin has greatly improved his stock this season but he hasn't passed Brannstrom. They may have similar point totals, Brannstrom had 4 more points in 6 more games, but Sandin was somehow a -10, with all those points, on a playoff team. Brannstrom was a plus on Chicago, and only a -2 on Bellville who missed the playoffs. Usually, I never look at plus-minus but that -10 surprised me. He's clearly not as defensively adept as Brannstrom, at the moment, but that could improve with time.

It would have been better to not look at plus minus this time either.

You say that Brannstrom was only a -2 on Bellville, but during the 9 games that Brannstrom has played for Bellville that -2 was the worst on the team. Chlapik was -1, and everyone else was positive, with Goloubef and Paul both being +5. Bellville as a team was +17 on the year (way ahead of the Marlies, despite the Marlies finishing 9 points ahead - Bellville had bad special teams).

Brannstrom was a +1 on Chicago, but at the time he was traded that was probably close to last on the team - a team in which fellow rookie D Hague was +31 (and that was still only 4th on the team). Chicago as a team was +38 on the year.

So despite being on two teams that were actually really strongly on the plus side Brannstrom was -1 overall.

Sandin was, as you said, -10 on a playoff team. But the team was a -14 on the year - predominantly due to atrocious goaltending for the first half the season. In 6 playoff games so far he is +4 (leading all Toronto D). He has also improved dramatically over the course of the season and since turning 19 has been on fire with 23 points in 21 games (counting playoff games where he has 7 points in 6 games). Sandin has reportedly been the Marlies ice time leader since returning from injury in February and has played 28+ minutes several times, including in the playoffs, and plays very heavy minutes when the Marlies are protecting a lead.

During the world juniors Brannstrom somehow managed to be -1 with Sweden (last on the team) when Sandin was +4 (top on team) and incidentally Sandin started that tournament playing 3 or 4 fewer minutes a game than Brannstrom and finished playing 3 more minutes a game than Brannstrom (over the final two games) including more than 28 minutes in the final game - while playing with a injury that left him out for the next 4 weeks.

Plus/Minus is not a completely useless stat, but it is pretty close.

I was skeptical of Sandin for much of the season, but I was wrong. I like Brannstrom and certainly he has very high potential. In 50 games he had 32 points, with 20 coming on the PP and 12 at ES. With 6 playoff games, Sandin has now played 50 games with 35 points with 20 coming at ES and 15 on the PP. I would now take Sandin without a second thought.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

It would have been better to not look at plus minus this time either.

You say that Brannstrom was only a -2 on Bellville, but during the 9 games that Brannstrom has played for Bellville that -2 was the worst on the team. Chlapik was -1, and everyone else was positive, with Goloubef and Paul both being +5. Bellville as a team was +17 on the year (way ahead of the Marlies, despite the Marlies finishing 9 points ahead - Bellville had bad special teams).

Brannstrom was a +1 on Chicago, but at the time he was traded that was probably close to last on the team - a team in which fellow rookie D Hague was +31 (and that was still only 4th on the team). Chicago as a team was +38 on the year.

So despite being on two teams that were actually really strongly on the plus side Brannstrom was -1 overall.

Sandin was, as you said, -10 on a playoff team. But the team was a -14 on the year - predominantly due to atrocious goaltending for the first half the season. In 6 playoff games so far he is +4 (leading all Toronto D). He has also improved dramatically over the course of the season and since turning 19 has been on fire with 23 points in 21 games (counting playoff games where he has 7 points in 6 games). Sandin has reportedly been the Marlies ice time leader since returning from injury in February and has played 28+ minutes several times, including in the playoffs, and plays very heavy minutes when the Marlies are protecting a lead.

During the world juniors Brannstrom somehow managed to be -1 with Sweden (last on the team) when Sandin was +4 (top on team) and incidentally Sandin started that tournament playing 3 or 4 fewer minutes a game than Brannstrom and finished playing 3 more minutes a game than Brannstrom (over the final two games) including more than 28 minutes in the final game - while playing with a injury that left him out for the next 4 weeks.

Plus/Minus is not a completely useless stat, but it is pretty close.

I was skeptical of Sandin for much of the season, but I was wrong. I like Brannstrom and certainly he has very high potential. In 50 games he had 32 points, with 20 coming on the PP and 12 at ES. With 6 playoff games, Sandin has now played 50 games with 35 points with 20 coming at ES and 15 on the PP. I would now take Sandin without a second thought.

This guy understands how +/- works and didnt just cherry pick numbers, gave the full context.

If I were offered one of these 2 for free I would take Brannstrom, but that's only out of what's likely ignorance as it's going more on his hype/potential. Rolling the dice and hoping he turns out as well as what his potential is.

Aside from the trade to Ottawa, havent really followed either of them.

 

[biotk]

This guy understands how +/- works and didnt just cherry pick numbers, gave the full context.

If I were offered one of these 2 for free I would take Brannstrom, but that's only out of what's likely ignorance as it's going more on his hype/potential.

Up until a couple days ago I would have taken Brannstrom. I was more impressed with Sandin at the WJC, but didn't think much of it. Having watched Sandin live on May 1st and May 3rd I have changed my mind. He looked like he was everywhere, and while not perfect, he seemed to be in complete control of the whole game when he was on the ice - at both ends of the ice, in he neutral zone and while on the PP and PK. But I could change my mind again, and I don't think you can go wrong with either one.

 

[Joider]

It would have been better to not look at plus minus this time either.

You say that Brannstrom was only a -2 on Bellville, but during the 9 games that Brannstrom has played for Bellville that -2 was the worst on the team. Chlapik was -1, and everyone else was positive, with Goloubef and Paul both being +5. Bellville as a team was +17 on the year (way ahead of the Marlies, despite the Marlies finishing 9 points ahead - Bellville had bad special teams).

Brannstrom was a +1 on Chicago, but at the time he was traded that was probably close to last on the team - a team in which fellow rookie D Hague was +31 (and that was still only 4th on the team). Chicago as a team was +38 on the year.

So despite being on two teams that were actually really strongly on the plus side Brannstrom was -1 overall.

Sandin was, as you said, -10 on a playoff team. But the team was a -14 on the year - predominantly due to atrocious goaltending for the first half the season. In 6 playoff games so far he is +4 (leading all Toronto D). He has also improved dramatically over the course of the season and since turning 19 has been on fire with 23 points in 21 games (counting playoff games where he has 7 points in 6 games). Sandin has reportedly been the Marlies ice time leader since returning from injury in February and has played 28+ minutes several times, including in the playoffs, and plays very heavy minutes when the Marlies are protecting a lead.

During the world juniors Brannstrom somehow managed to be -1 with Sweden (last on the team) when Sandin was +4 (top on team) and incidentally Sandin started that tournament playing 3 or 4 fewer minutes a game than Brannstrom and finished playing 3 more minutes a game than Brannstrom (over the final two games) including more than 28 minutes in the final game - while playing with a injury that left him out for the next 4 weeks.

Plus/Minus is not a completely useless stat, but it is pretty close.

I was skeptical of Sandin for much of the season, but I was wrong. I like Brannstrom and certainly he has very high potential. In 50 games he had 32 points, with 20 coming on the PP and 12 at ES. With 6 playoff games, Sandin has now played 50 games with 35 points with 20 coming at ES and 15 on the PP. I would now take Sandin without a second thought.

I would not use a 9 game sample size after a transitional period to really demonstrate anything. I'm partly at fault for including it in my original post, but in those 9 games, Brannstrom was our best defender by far while the team was playing like absolute garbage. Again 9 game sample size though so I don't think there's much we can draw from it in hindsight. Although from what I watched he played quite well.

The Chicago point is fair; however, Chicago's goaltending was extremely average which didn't help Brannstrom. Hague was also utilized much more like a 2 way D than Brannstrom who was more of a PP specialist. Because of this, less of Brannstrom's points counted as pluses and he was on for more even strength -'s. Despite this, he still had an above even rating,

Also, someone in this thread who said that he watched Sandin quite a bit admitted that he fed off of Bracco who had an outstanding season. This isn't to say that Brannstrom couldn't have fed off of players like Carr but Sandin clearly had all the help in the world 5v5 and still managed to be negative whereas Brannstrom managed to be even despite getting less 5v5 points. Wouldn't it seem even more worrisome that Sandin had ALL those 5v5 points and was still a negative? He had one of the worst plus-minus ratings on the entire team.

Also, aren't the awful goalie stats for the Marlies somewhat because of defensive incapabilities? It could be very easily argued that Sandin's poor defensive play didn't help the already middling goalie stats. Granted it is probably a wider defensive issue but the stats sort of suggest he could have been at least part of the problem.

I'm reiterating a bit here, but the World Juniors is far too small a sample size to take anything meaningful out of. A range of 3-4 minutes is quite small and could be because of a number of factors from coaching preference to odd man opportunity. Even luck is a factor in that situation.

It's still too early in each players career to make rash judgements, but from the biggest and best sample size we have, the ahl regular season, the stats certainly suggest that Brannstrom was better defensively. Defense is the one knock I constantly hear against Sandin from scouts. This doesn't mean he can't improve, but at this point I would definitely take Brannstrom over Sandin. He's more of a complete player.

 

[Semantics]

If there's anything I've learned in my 15+ years on the site it's that HF will always pick the big name prospect over the underdog, and stick with that until both players are established NHLers and the outcome is decided.

Thus, Sandin will ****never**** come close to winning any poll on this site. There is literally nothing Sandin could have done in the AHL this season to make him win this poll. There is no point in posting such polls until 3-5 years from now.

 

[Lays]

Flip a coin. Homer voted Sandin and wasn't surprised by the results, but they're laughable.

Brannstrom will likely be able to run a power play and produce more points, Sandin fits more in the mold of a two-way defenceman. How they continue to develop is anybodies guess. They both look great thus far, and even as a Leaf fan I'm surprised at just how good Sandin has looked so far. Pleasant surprise for a late 1st rounder.

Brannstrom is better defensively though he's not only a PPQB. Sandin gets blown by a few times a game and while he's smart on the puck, he isn't great defensively.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Brannstrom.

That being said, the gap has closed considerably since the beginning of this season.

This is exactly where I am.

Voted accordingly.

 

[TOGuy14]

Sandin is the better player right now, but I think Brannstrom has a higher ceiling, if he can reach it.

 

[topshelf15]

Meh ,both teams have a good LHD prospect...Ours just cost us our best forward ,theirs did not .....So of course Ottawa fans are going to vote for their guy,because if Brannstrom is a flop ...It just adds to the misery for us

 

[garyturner3]

Brannstrom. If you add a poll try to have a separate option for fans of the teams voting

Why? So you can label half of the voters as biased and discredit their votes? Those options are completely pointless in polls.

 

[biotk]

Also, someone in this thread who said that he watched Sandin quite a bit admitted that he fed off of Bracco who had an outstanding season. This isn't to say that Brannstrom couldn't have fed off of players like Carr but Sandin clearly had all the help in the world 5v5

The first thing I learned on hf was that if someone makes a claim that could be backed up by statistics, but doesn't back that claim up with statistics, then the claim should be dismissed.

As I said, Sandin has 23 points in his last 21 games. Yes, he plays with Bracco on the PP (during Rosen's injury/call up/injury). He rarely plays with Bracco at ES. Of those 23 points in his last 21 games, 13 were at ES (1 goal, 8 primary assists, 4 secondary assists). Bracco was on the ice for 2 of those 13 points, and was a factor on 1 (an assist on Sandin's goal at 3-on-3 - where yes Bracco did almost all the work - the other ES point for Sandin in which Bracco was on the ice for was a primary assist for Sandin that occurred 3 seconds after a PP ended and Bracco was not a factor, while Sandin did all the work. (Of Sandin's 12 points prior to that, Bracco had a point on 4, I believe, I am not going to bother to go back and check)

As to your claims about plus/minus - I will repeat what I said before, it is simply a terrible stat and you are using it about as nonsensically as someone could use it.

I am not going to bother getting into a discussion about which D is better defensively because I think that is pointless for players outside of the NHL. So I will just say this:

Brannstrom's knock in Vegas' training camp for his D+2 was still that his defensive play was not good enough. And that continued in the AHL:

“But what he didn’t have coming in was a foundation of play without the puck defensively, and that was kind of exposed in training camp, giving up a lot of odd-man rushes, not reading those situations, losing body position in his 1-on-1.
“So what we’ve really focused on is his play without the puck and his foundation and fundamentals as far as stick and body positioning.”
Preaching patience

This was the opposite of Sandin during the Leafs training camp for D+1, who Babs (who doesn't trust young players) loved right away. Who in scouting reports was listed as a two-way D with limited offensive upside. And who Keefe said about his play from the start:

"Marlies coach Sheldon Keefe saw aspects right away, especially defensively, in Sandin’s game that most junior players never grasp. The way he used his five-foot-11, 183-pound frame stood out.
"He’s not the biggest or strongest guy, but positionally he puts himself in really good spots, his angles are really good, and he’s competitive," Keefe says.
"He gets involved physically. He uses what he has extremely well. That same sense helps him with the puck as well. He preserves space very well so he can skate out of tricky situations very well. He plays calm. There’s a poise and confidence well beyond his years."

As I said, I was skeptical until I had a chance to watch him play two recent playoff games live. (I had watched him on TV, but only at training camp when he was sheltered and at the WJC when the ice surface is bigger). However, when you are playing the heaviest minutes in the playoffs on a team that is 6-0 that says something. When your coach relies on you more in the final 5 minutes and on the PK when you have a small lead than Borgman (who played 48 games in the NHL the previous year) it is not because you are questionable defensively. If you believe that you haven't watched him play.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Brannstrom is better defensively though he's not only a PPQB. Sandin gets blown by a few times a game and while he's smart on the puck, he isn't great defensively.

Blown by a few times a game? Who are you watching exactly?

 

[Joider]

The first thing I learned on hf was that if someone makes a claim that could be backed up by statistics, but doesn't back that claim up with statistics, then the claim should be dismissed.

As I said, Sandin has 23 points in his last 21 games. Yes, he plays with Bracco on the PP (during Rosen's injury/call up/injury). He rarely plays with Bracco at ES. Of those 23 points in his last 21 games, 13 were at ES (1 goal, 8 primary assists, 4 secondary assists). Bracco was on the ice for 2 of those 13 points, and was a factor on 1 (an assist on Sandin's goal at 3-on-3 - where yes Bracco did almost all the work - the other ES point for Sandin in which Bracco was on the ice for was a primary assist for Sandin that occurred 3 seconds after a PP ended and Bracco was not a factor, while Sandin did all the work. (Of Sandin's 12 points prior to that, Bracco had a point on 4, I believe, I am not going to bother to go back and check)

As to your claims about plus/minus - I will repeat what I said before, it is simply a terrible stat and you are using it about as nonsensically as someone could use it.

I am not going to bother getting into a discussion about which D is better defensively because I think that is pointless for players outside of the NHL. So I will just say this:

Brannstrom's knock in Vegas' training camp for his D+2 was still that his defensive play was not good enough. And that continued in the AHL:

“But what he didn’t have coming in was a foundation of play without the puck defensively, and that was kind of exposed in training camp, giving up a lot of odd-man rushes, not reading those situations, losing body position in his 1-on-1.
“So what we’ve really focused on is his play without the puck and his foundation and fundamentals as far as stick and body positioning.”
Preaching patience

This was the opposite of Sandin during the Leafs training camp for D+1, who Babs (who doesn't trust young players) loved right away. Who in scouting reports was listed as a two-way D with limited offensive upside. And who Keefe said about his play from the start:

"Marlies coach Sheldon Keefe saw aspects right away, especially defensively, in Sandin’s game that most junior players never grasp. The way he used his five-foot-11, 183-pound frame stood out.
"He’s not the biggest or strongest guy, but positionally he puts himself in really good spots, his angles are really good, and he’s competitive," Keefe says.
"He gets involved physically. He uses what he has extremely well. That same sense helps him with the puck as well. He preserves space very well so he can skate out of tricky situations very well. He plays calm. There’s a poise and confidence well beyond his years."

As I said, I was skeptical until I had a chance to watch him play two recent playoff games live. (I had watched him on TV, but only at training camp when he was sheltered and at the WJC when the ice surface is bigger). However, when you are playing the heaviest minutes in the playoffs on a team that is 6-0 that says something. When your coach relies on you more in the final 5 minutes and on the PK when you have a small lead than Borgman (who played 48 games in the NHL the previous year) it is not because you are questionable defensively. If you believe that you haven't watched him play.

I did argue back with his 5v5 statistics and how they appear troublesome. What's really worrying is when someone clearly manipulates statistics for their own gain. You clarified that Sandin didn't necessarily benefit from Bracco in his last 21 games but that doesn't combat my argument of "isn't it weird with all those 5v5 points he's still a minus?" That problem still exists. That is an argument backed by statistics. I will admit, I'm having trouble finding in-depth statistics because the AHL website doesn't present them. What are you using?

Also, the hatred towards the plus-minus stat is a problem. You claim it's nonsensical but haven't justified it as such. In this situation how is a -10 not worrying for a rookie D who had more even strength points than powerplay points? I get the criticism when the stat gets used as a negative for players with a large number of minus's on horrible teams, like Oliver Ekman Larrson last year, but that is absolutely not the case in this scenario.

You also use manipulative quotes when discussing comments on their defensive game. You use a random beat writer for Brannstrom's quote. After some research, I couldn't find a single scout, of those who put their opinions on the internet, that disliked Brannstrom's defensive abilities. You then use the GM of the Toronto maples leafs and the coach as quotes for Sandin. This is manipulative. Of course, both of those individuals are going to hype Sandin, and his defensive game when it is constantly the most criticized part of the Leafs organization. There is no way either of them are going to be like "well he could be better defensively." Regardless, any sort of quote is pointless as the opinion could have changed by this point and bias is prevalent as you have perfectly demonstrated.

The last paragraph is just anecdote and not related to anything we're talking about. Just because he has been used on the PK in a close game situation means absolutely nothing, as does your two game scouting report. I watched half of Brannstrom's 9 games with Ottawa and I said he was our best defender, which he was. But I also admitted that the sample size was too small to draw anything conclusive. I won't assert that those nine games showed that Brannstrom was reliable in every facet of his game. He clearly has things to improve on.

I still posit the question, is a minus 10 player who had more even-strength points than powerplay points, meaning he was on the ice for a greater number of goals against, at least raise the thought of defensive shortcomings?

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I still posit the question, is a minus 10 player who had more even-strength points than powerplay points, meaning he was on the ice for a greater number of goals against, at least raise the thought of defensive shortcomings?

Considering Toronto was a -14 as a team at 5 on 5 on the year, while Chicago, and Belleville were +38 and +17 respectively, no it's not an issue.

You watched half of 9 games and concluded Brannstrom was the Baby Sens best D man, well Sandin has been the Marlies best defenseman for going on 2 months.

It's close, very close. Both are great prospects, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I'm happy that the Oilers have Safin, but haven't viewed either enough to say one way or the other.

 

[Brobust]

Watched a fair bit of Sandin this season. Only bit of Brannstrom I've seen is from the WJCs.

Brannstrom is far more aggressive and dynamic. Really stands out when he's on the ice.

Sandin doesn't stand out as much. But he's a very agile skater and good puck mover.

They both make a lot of mistakes on defence.

Brannstrom has a higher ceiling but it's a toss up, IMO.

 

[Synesthesia]

This is Brannstrom, clearly.

Leafs fans can try to rationalize the other choice however they want, like by playing the victim card on page 1 if that's what they want, but it's Brannstrom.

 

[Joider]

Considering Toronto was a -14 as a team at 5 on 5 on the year, while Chicago, and Belleville were +38 and +17 respectively, no it's not an issue.

You watched half of 9 games and concluded Brannstrom was the Baby Sens best D man, well Sandin has been the Marlies best defenseman for going on 2 months.

It's close, very close. Both are great prospects, there's nothing wrong with that.

I said I thought that he was their best D, but put no stock into that opinion because it was only 9 games. You can say "best defenseman for 2 months" but that line means nothing. He's clearly been a good offensive force but his defensive ability remains in question.

Why do you think the Marlies were -14? I expect the retort of "it was just the terrible goalies." It makes much more sense to assume that it was both defensive ineptitude and poor goaltending of which Sandin could have easily contributed.

 

[biotk]

You also use manipulative quotes when discussing comments on their defensive game. You use a random beat writer for Brannstrom's quote.

Brannstrom's AHL coach for more than 80% of his AHL games, and who was so at the time of the quote (who is also a former NHL and AHL D) = beat reporter

You then use the GM of the Toronto maples leafs and the coach as quotes for Sandin. This is manipulative.

My quote was from Sandin's AHL coach.

Two quotes from AHL coaches about players they were currently coaching = being manipulative.

I did argue back with his 5v5 statistics and how they appear troublesome. What's really worrying is when someone clearly manipulates statistics for their own gain. You clarified that Sandin didn't necessarily benefit from Bracco in his last 21 games but that doesn't combat my argument of "isn't it weird with all those 5v5 points he's still a minus?" That problem still exists. That is an argument backed by statistics.

Sandin didn't benefit form playing with Bracco at ES because he almost never played with Bracco.

As to your argument about your +/- statistics being useful:

Chicago was +38 on the season. With everything being equal (all 6 D playing the same amount and the team being as good offensively and defensively when each is on the ice) you would expect a D to be +12.67 on the season. But as Brannstrom only played 41 games (of 76) you would expect +6.83 with everything being equal. Top 4 D play more than the bottom pairing, so assuming that Brannstrom played top 4 D ice time you would actually expect +8.2 (based on 40% instead of 33.3%).

Belleville was +17. With everything being equal and pro-rated to 9 games you would expect Brannstrom to be +0.67. Adjusting for top four you would expect him to be +0.80.

In total Brannstrom should have been expected to be +7.5 (with all D being equal) and +9 (when adjusting for the higher ice time that top 4 D have). Instead he was -1. That is 8.5 to 10 below what would be expected.

In the World Junior's Sweden was +6. You would expect Brannstrom to be +2 with everything being equal and 2.4 when adjusting for top four TOI. He was -1.

The Marlies were -14. You would expect Sandin when adjusted to games played to be -2.7 with everything being equal and -3.3 when adjusting for top 4 TOI. He was -10, so that is 6.7 to 7.3 below what would be expected - better than Brannstrom.

In the World Junior's Sandin was +4, which is 2 - 2.4 better than what would be expected - better than Brannstrom.

In the playoffs with the Marlies (+7 as a team) Sandin is +4, which is 2.3 - 2.8 better than what would be expected.

But again, this is stupid, because +/- is a stupid stat that does not tell people anything useful the vast majority of time

 

[biotk]

You can say "best defenseman for 2 months" but that line means nothing. He's clearly been a good offensive force but his defensive ability remains in question.

Not to people who have watched him play and understand hockey. I get that people over-estimate the ability of pretty much every single one of their prospects. Many Leafs fans are currently doing that big time with Liljegren as far as I am concerned.