Sandin/Liljegren vs Brook/Romanov

[Hahahax]

OHL is sturdier proving ground for players of that age than the KHL though because of playing time and more of an NHL player factory than the MHL, so he started as a much less enigmatic quantity than Romanov then add 3x the sample this year with most of it being at the 2nd highest level of pro hockey played on NHL ice. I'm not at all trying to say that Sandin should have gone way higher than he did, but he's definitely more of a known quantity than Romanov at this point

And that known quantity is still seen by most experts as a complete 2nd pairing dman potential.

 

[Randy Randerson]

And that known quantity is still seen by most experts as a complete 2nd pairing dman potential.

I'm not sure if you're referencing Sandin or Romanov here, either way I think what you're saying warrants asking for some back up, there should be a lot of published material if that's the case

the "known quantity" aspect really references the player's perceived floor rather than his ceiling too

 

[koyvoo]

I’m a Habs fan and I lean slightly to the leafs duo as well. I think all four are really good prospects though.

 

[Nizdizzle]

He's in the ECHL now... but don't tell him though.

The leafs are sending a guy who could be a "3rd pairing PP specialist in the NHL right now" in the ECHL, but i get warned for calling bull**** on that guy's opinions though.

If you were warned, it was probably because you called him some unpleasant names. People can have different opinions, even if they are clearly against the grain or outlandish. I'm sure people would have been freaking out in a few years ago Nashville fans were saying Josi reminding them of a top-10 NHL defenseman.

 

[Captain Mountain]

OHL is sturdier proving ground for players of that age than the KHL though because of playing time and more of an NHL player factory than the MHL, so he started as a much less enigmatic quantity than Romanov then add 3x the sample this year with most of it being at the 2nd highest level of pro hockey played on NHL ice. I'm not at all trying to say that Sandin should have gone way higher than he did, but he's definitely more of a known quantity than Romanov at this point

Eh, Draft is kind of a reset in terms known quality since, whether before or after, teams and media dig into the top players games. The statlines are different, but its so hard to figure out relative strength of leagues, let alone Q0T/QoC and data beyond the boxcar stats that it.

The draft doesn't matter much after the fact, but we have a smaller sample of Sandin than Romanov this year. Romanov was better at the WJC, Sandin, at least on the surface, looks better in league play. This stuff shifts constantly anyways, but saying there's a larger sample of Sandin only really extends to the vast majority of NA based fans.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I'm not sure if you're referencing Sandin or Romanov here, either way I think what you're saying warrants asking for some back up, there should be a lot of published material if that's the case

the "known quantity" aspect really references the player's perceived floor rather than his ceiling too

"Known quantity" has to do with general awareness and/or confidence of assessment, not perceived ceiling or floor.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Eh, Draft is kind of a reset in terms known quality since, whether before or after, teams and media dig into the top players games. The statlines are different, but its so hard to figure out relative strength of leagues, let alone Q0T/QoC and data beyond the boxcar stats that it.

The draft doesn't matter much after the fact, but we have a smaller sample of Sandin than Romanov this year. Romanov was better at the WJC, Sandin, at least on the surface, looks better in league play. This stuff shifts constantly anyways, but saying there's a larger sample of Sandin only really extends to the vast majority of NA based fans.

There's always going to be some shuffling post-draft. If you were a scout and your job depended on landing an NHL defenseman (let's say 300gp is the threshold for what qualifies) with a pick and you had the choice of Sandin or Romanov with the info we have on them today, which do you take? I think if you polled NHL scouts with that right now, it's a landslide to Sandin, which is what I mean

I disagree that the pre-draft info doesn't matter when we're only a few months of play removed from the draft, it matters less over time

"Known quantity" has to do with general awareness and/or confidence of assessment, not perceived ceiling or floor.

wouldn't the confidence of assessment pertain specifically to likelihood of the range of possible outcomes and how specific/narrow a range they are (ie. floor and ceiling)?

 

[Captain Mountain]

There's always going to be some shuffling post-draft. If you were a scout and your job depended on landing an NHL defenseman (let's say 300gp is the threshold for what qualifies) with a pick and you had the choice of Sandin or Romanov with the info we have on them today, which do you take? I think if you polled NHL scouts with that right now, it's a landslide to Sandin, which is what I mean

I disagree that the pre-draft info doesn't matter when we're only a few months of play removed from the draft, it matters less over time

1) I have no idea. I've seen two drafted prospect rankings post WJC. Pronman had Sandin ahead of Romanov, Button had Romanov ahead of Sandin. Sandin probably gets the nod due to the fact that he plays in NA and there are exponentially more scouts here than in Russia.

wouldn't the confidence of assessment pertain specifically to likelihood of the range of possible outcomes and how specific/narrow a range they are (ie. floor and ceiling)?

Why? confidence of assessment is how confident you are in your assessment.

I'm more confident in judging Sandin since he played in the OHL and is in the AHL. He plays on NHL size ice. There are tons of comparables he can be graded against and publicly available data to refine an assessment. He's not much of an enigma because there's a lot of projectable inputs.

Romanov is an 18 year old playing in the KHL. He has shown no offense, but by all accounts his transition and defensive game has been top notch. You don't know what factors into his lack of offense, if he'd be better on NHL size ice or even have many comparables.

Compound that with seeing him play at an incredibly high level against his peers at the WJC (whether you look at box scores, watch him or look at the tracked data), tie for most points in the tournament and win the Best D-man award (last 3 winners being Dahlin, Chabot and Werenski). And he's 18. That's even more confusing.

the "known quantity" aspect doesn't really reference "the player's perceived floor rather than his ceiling too". Projecting a floor and ceiling are based on data (scouting reports, tracking data, stats, etc.). In Romanov's case, its hard to project because we have less data. Is he the defensive D-man he was in the KHL or the all-situations D-man he was in the WJC? What's projectable?

 

[Randy Randerson]

1) I have no idea. I've seen two drafted prospect rankings post WJC. Pronman had Sandin ahead of Romanov, Button had Romanov ahead of Sandin. Sandin probably gets the nod due to the fact that he plays in NA and there are exponentially more scouts here than in Russia.

Looks like Button had Sandin a lot higher than Romanov: 2018 NHL Draft Rankings

I think Sandin's OHL experience, being that there's a pretty good body of comparison for CHL players and less for MHL players would weigh in, as would Sandin playing at a high level of pro hockey on NA ice if you were looking for likelihood of a player getting to the NHL for an extended career

if you were swinging for the fences the result might be the opposite, but that's what I mean by known quantity

Why? confidence of assessment is how confident you are in your assessment.

I'm more confident in judging Sandin since he played in the OHL and is in the AHL. He plays on NHL size ice. There are tons of comparables he can be graded against and publicly available data to refine an assessment. He's not much of an enigma because there's a lot of projectable inputs.

Romanov is an 18 year old playing in the KHL. He has shown no offense, but by all accounts his transition and defensive game has been top notch. You don't know what factors into his lack of offense, if he'd be better on NHL size ice or even have many comparables.

Compound that with seeing him play at an incredibly high level against his peers at the WJC (whether you look at box scores, watch him or look at the tracked data), tie for most points in the tournament and win the Best D-man award (last 3 winners being Dahlin, Chabot and Werenski). And he's 18. That's even more confusing.

the "known quantity" aspect doesn't really reference "the player's perceived floor rather than his ceiling too". Projecting a floor and ceiling are based on data (scouting reports, tracking data, stats, etc.). In Romanov's case, its hard to project because we have less data. Is he the defensive D-man he was in the KHL or the all-situations D-man he was in the WJC? What's projectable?

isn't the assessment the projection of what you believe a player could be (likely within a range, ie. good bet to be a top 4 defender with a chance to be a top pairing defender)?

I think we're saying the exact same thing - Sandin's sample is more reliable and there's less obstacles to overcome for him to play in the NHL, there's less projecting to do in order to figure out what he's expected to be in the NHL than Romanov. That's exactly what I mean when I say "known quantity"

 

[LeafsNation75]

My vote was for Sandin and Liljegren.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

I’m a Habs fan and I lean slightly to the leafs duo as well. I think all four are really good prospects though.

did you watch the WJC if I can ask ? Toronto duo was underwhelming, well Sandin was fine, I had bigger hope for Lili but he did nothing amazing at the cup either.

 

[koyvoo]

did you watch the WJC if I can ask ? Toronto duo was underwhelming, well Sandin was fine, not lili

Yes, the Habs WJC discussion is filled with my posts, live during games. I was very impressed with Romanov’s game and his individual stock definitely rose the most of the four during that tournament. But it’s still a tiny 7 game sample size.

Edit-
As an example, many people bumped Poehling above Suzuki on such a small sample size as well. I did not. It’s notable, but doesn’t trump the other 11 months and two weeks in a calendar year.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Looks like Button had Sandin a lot higher than Romanov: 2018 NHL Draft Rankings

I think Sandin's OHL experience, being that there's a pretty good body of comparison for CHL players and less for MHL players would weigh in, as would Sandin playing at a high level of pro hockey on NA ice if you were looking for likelihood of a player getting to the NHL for an extended career

if you were swinging for the fences the result might be the opposite, but that's what I mean by known quantity


isn't the assessment the projection of what you believe a player could be (likely within a range, ie. good bet to be a top 4 defender with a chance to be a top pairing defender)?

I think we're saying the exact same thing - Sandin's sample is more reliable and there's less obstacles to overcome for him to play in the NHL, there's less projecting to do in order to figure out what he's expected to be in the NHL than Romanov. That's exactly what I mean when I say "known quantity"

1) I very clearly said post WJC. As in the ones from Tuesday:

https://www.tsn.ca/russian-wingers-top-tsn-s-ranking-of-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.1241872

2) But that doesn't affect floor or ceiling more. Its a mistake to fixate on the projections. That's like starting with a conclusion and working your way back through the process.

What I'm saying is that Sandin is easier to judge and analyze because he's got comparables and more visibility. We can compare his skating, his production, his tracking, play to other prospects and previous AHLers.

Romanov generally doesn't have that. And in the environment where he had that, he was lights out.

And none of this has anything to do with obstacles they may have to reach the NHL, that's more on what they need to work on. Both orgs should have a pretty good handle on that.

 

[biotk]

He's in the ECHL now... but don't tell him though.

The leafs are sending a guy who could be a "3rd pairing PP specialist in the NHL right now" in the ECHL, but i get warned for calling bull**** on that guy's opinions though.

It's for a conditioning stint, since he was injured. You sure don't seem to know very much about the player, so you should probably defer to leafs fans here

Yes, a conditioning stint in the ECHL. NHL ready players do their conditioning stints in the AHL, not the ECHL. If he could be a 3rd pairing PP specialist in the NHL he wouldnt go condition in the ECHL... well, he could, but it would be a first.

You seem pretty hung up about the league. Lilly wanted to come back pretty early from a high ankle sprain. Practice conditions can only tell you so much, and the Marlies were on a stretch of 7 days off (so the choices were play a hockey game in the ECHL or don't play a hockey game at all) and when the Marlies play next it will be back to back games against the team that is blowing apart the AHL. Not great games to be seeing how well your ankle holds up under game conditions - both for the player and for the team. So they sent him to Maine to play a game with their ECHL affiliate to see how he felt playing on that ankle and then immediately recalled him back to the Marlies because the answer either was - it's fine or it's not. That is very intelligent asset management. If other teams don't do the same thing, then they are worse off for putting some kind of bizarre pride (ewww ECHL) ahead of common sense.
​

 

[biotk]

As for the two pairs of players - I can't honestly evaluate the four, and neither can anyone else on here, so it is a pissing match based on nothing but feelings and emotions.

 

[Randy Randerson]

1) I very clearly said post WJC. As in the ones from Tuesday:

https://www.tsn.ca/russian-wingers-top-tsn-s-ranking-of-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.1241872

lol calm down, missed that

2) But that doesn't affect floor or ceiling more. Its a mistake to fixate on the projections. That's like starting with a conclusion and working your way back through the process.

What I'm saying is that Sandin is easier to judge and analyze because he's got comparables and more visibility. We can compare his skating, his production, his tracking, play to other prospects and previous AHLers.

Romanov generally doesn't have that. And in the environment where he had that, he was lights out.

And none of this has anything to do with obstacles they may have to reach the NHL, that's more on what they need to work on. Both orgs should have a pretty good handle on that.

ya again, we're saying the same thing, you just seem not to like the teams "floor" and "ceiling" which are definitely implied when you start talking about assessments

 

[Captain Mountain]

lol calm down, missed that


ya again, we're saying the same thing, you just seem not to like the teams "floor" and "ceiling" which are definitely implied when you start talking about assessments

My issue isn't floor and ceiling, its when you say that " the "known quantity" aspect really references the player's perceived floor rather than his ceiling too".

My takaway from that is that you're suggesting that, you know, how known a quantity a prospect affects prospect's perceived floor rather than his ceiling. Which doesn't make sense.

 

[mattydamon]

I've been fooled by great WJC performances before - I like Sandin most of these 4 so I will go with TO.

 

[Randy Randerson]

My issue isn't floor and ceiling, its when you say that " the "known quantity" aspect really references the player's perceived floor rather than his ceiling too".

My takaway from that is that you're suggesting that, you know, how known a quantity a prospect affects prospect's perceived floor rather than his ceiling. Which doesn't make sense.

my reference to that in the original post was because the poster was calling one of these two (I honestly don't know which he was referencing) a potential 2nd pairing defenseman, which to me references only the ceiling without acknowledging the floor that make up the player's range of projection. In my opinion, at this stage of these guy's careers as late 1st/2nd round players, the perceived floor is the more important consideration for their current values - you may get a top pairing dman out of every 20/30 dmen taken in the range that these two were, but if the expectation is that one has a very good chance to be a 2nd pairing dman with a much smaller chance of being better than that, that player is more valuable to me at this stage than a guy who has a perceived higher ceiling with a lower floor because of the odds of busting

 

[Kunta Kinte]

Romanov and Brook are better than the other two by a huge gap...Sandin is small soft and bad.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Good poll. I think these are same caliber prospects even though Brook/Romanov were 2nd rounders.

Romanov seems like a really good prospect. And I think there is more risk to Liljegren as opposed to Brook, not that either are a guarantee.

Don't have a problem with Sandin at all, but ultimately the intrigue in Romanov is what tips the scales for me. Voted MTL duo.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

did you watch the WJC if I can ask ? Toronto duo was underwhelming, well Sandin was fine, I had bigger hope for Lili but he did nothing amazing at the cup either.

I would have to ask if YOU watched the WJC if you thought "the Toronto duo was underwhelming".

Or are you saying you barely even noticed Liljegren?

 

[sparxx87]

He's in the ECHL now... but don't tell him though.

The leafs are sending a guy who could be a "3rd pairing PP specialist in the NHL right now" in the ECHL, but i get warned for calling bull**** on that guy's opinions though.

It’s a conditioning stint. He was injured and still recovering.

Toronto Marlies send Timothy Liljegren to ECHL

 

[Mrb1p]

Fleury is doing better than Liljegren and he's our fourth best D prospect, nice try, Leaf nation.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Fleury is doing better than Liljegren and he's our fourth best D prospect, nice try, Leaf nation.

considering he's not even matching Liljegren's pace as an 18 year old, no. pretty weird timing after he did nothing in the last few games against the Marlies and Liljegren isn't even playing though