Prospect Info: San Jose Sharks top prospect

[DonskoiDonscored]

Between Bergman or Tierney for me. I think Tierney will be the future captain of this team.

 

[Timo Time]

If I had it my way, I'd say Mueller/Abeltshauser/Tierney/Goldobin would all be in the same tier of 'Top Prospect' for the org. But based on comments by DW and NHL readiness, I chose Mueller.

 

[SJeasy]

So, I think that value is kind of one with a large inflection point.

Say the Sharks draft Giroux or someone similar in the late first. All of a sudden, they go from an F to an A-. Then one more guy and they go to an A+...

I would agree that outside of the 2003 draft, finding those franchise-quality players outside of the top-5ish or so is incredibly difficult.

With forwards, incredibly difficult. Kopitar may be the only one lately. Dmen, better chance. Subban and Karlsson come immediately to mind. Obviously, franchise goalies can come from anywhere and top pick goalies do not have a decided edge over later picks.

For others, I do not give the franchise label lightly.

 

[OrrNumber4]

With forwards, incredibly difficult. Kopitar may be the only one lately. Dmen, better chance. Subban and Karlsson come immediately to mind. Obviously, franchise goalies can come from anywhere and top pick goalies do not have a decided edge over later picks.

For others, I do not give the franchise label lightly.

Do you really think Subban and Karlsson compare to other franchise-level D-men?

Yes, both have won the Norris off the strength of their offensive contributions. And both can develop more.

But right now...well, they get a lot of attention because they put up points, and because of the dearth of quality at their position...but are they assuredly franchise-level?

 

[5H4RK5]

I will follow DW lead and choose the biggest guy KA.

 

[SJeasy]

Do you really think Subban and Karlsson compare to other franchise-level D-men?

Yes, both have won the Norris off the strength of their offensive contributions. And both can develop more.

But right now...well, they get a lot of attention because they put up points, and because of the dearth of quality at their position...but are they assuredly franchise-level?

Yes absolutely on Subban. His defensive issues are extremely overblown. Karlsson is so close despite his lack of defense. He is as close as we are getting to Orr offensively in the modern era when he is healthy. For dmen, I look at the net of offense and defense, not pure offense or pure defense. It is usually best expressed in team relative plus/minus.

I would consider Weber more marginal. McDonagh is in the margins as well.

Recall also that it takes two or more franchise guys to get to the silver thingy. Subban and Karlsson don't have that support.

 

[Gecklund]

If you leave polls open for 4 days, we won't finish. Have the polls be 1 day, 2 tops. That's the only way to get these lists done.

Yeah sorry about that. I was meaning to only leave it open for 2 but I accidently left it so I figured I would wait until there was 100 total votes. I'm going to open the 2nd one pretty soon.

 

[matt trick]

So, I think that value is kind of one with a large inflection point.

Say the Sharks draft Giroux or someone similar in the late first. All of a sudden, they go from an F to an A-. Then one more guy and they go to an A+...

I would agree that outside of the 2003 draft, finding those franchise-quality players outside of the top-5ish or so is incredibly difficult.

For the most part, it isn't even top 5, it's more like top 3.

2000-2010
4th overall: Pietro (pretty close), Backstrom (pretty close) Johansen (maybe), every one else is a good distance away.
5th overall: Kessel (yes), Carey Price (pretty close), Vanek (not really)

 

[Led Zappa]

For the most part, it isn't even top 5, it's more like top 3.

2000-2010
4th overall: Pietro (pretty close), Backstrom (pretty close) Johansen (maybe), every one else is a good distance away.
5th overall: Kessel (yes), Carey Price (pretty close), Vanek (not really)

More evidence for my point of view.

Thx,

 

[OrrNumber4]

Yes absolutely on Subban. His defensive issues are extremely overblown. Karlsson is so close despite his lack of defense. He is as close as we are getting to Orr offensively in the modern era when he is healthy. For dmen, I look at the net of offense and defense, not pure offense or pure defense. It is usually best expressed in team relative plus/minus.

I would consider Weber more marginal. McDonagh is in the margins as well.

Recall also that it takes two or more franchise guys to get to the silver thingy. Subban and Karlsson don't have that support.

Well, there is this popular notion that someone defensemen can accept being bad defensively, since when they are on the ice, the puck spends all the time in the offensive zone.

The problem is, when that player comes up against a great team that can pin him in his own zone...disaster will occur. And, I think Subban is emblematic of this. Great offensive D-man. Understated, defensively, as well. But the best teams in the league will find ways to get a lot of time in the Montreal defensive zone whilst Subban is on the ice. And he is not elite enough in his own zone, to be a difference-maker in his own zone.

When one looks at large sample sizes, and sample sizes against multiple teams, this will get hidden.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Uh huh huh huh huh huh. 'Rod'. Uh huh huh huh huh huh.

 

[SJeasy]

Well, there is this popular notion that someone defensemen can accept being bad defensively, since when they are on the ice, the puck spends all the time in the offensive zone.

The problem is, when that player comes up against a great team that can pin him in his own zone...disaster will occur. And, I think Subban is emblematic of this. Great offensive D-man. Understated, defensively, as well. But the best teams in the league will find ways to get a lot of time in the Montreal defensive zone whilst Subban is on the ice. And he is not elite enough in his own zone, to be a difference-maker in his own zone.

When one looks at large sample sizes, and sample sizes against multiple teams, this will get hidden.

I am not looking at sample sizes, I used the playoffs. Top competition. Montreal is not a possession team and you are looking more at team effects than Subban himself. He is taking on top guys with little support in a forward corps for holding it and maintaining it in the other team's zone. One guy can't do it all which goes back to the issue of more than one franchise guy (and a supporting cast) to get to the silver thingy. As it is and by eyeball, Subban does a superior job of getting and holding the puck in the ozone. He was huge reason why the Habs got as far as they did.

And I also said the net of offense and defense and you twisted the argument to a benchmark level of defense. It isn't. It is just as legitimate to win 5-3 as it is to win 2-1. What ultimately matters is that the team wins. If a player is on the ice for 3 goals for and 2 goals against on average, he is doing a masterful job. More masterful than a guy who is on ice for 1 goal for and .5 goals against on average. It's the differential that counts and yes matchups of teams and players do matter.