GDT: San Jose Sharks(14-13-0) @ Edmonton Oilers(11-15-2) 6:30pm CSN-CA

[Alwalys]

You don't expect failure but you should plan for it. I.e., you should consider the best case scenarios, the worst case scenarios, and try to guess what is most likely (and what that probable range is, with some kind of confidence ranges). You also should do whatever is reasonable to minimize the potential downside risks. That is part of the job of anyone who runs a business.

he did a fairly good job of that with the acquisitions of ward and martin in addition to jones.

 

[jakeytown]

Edit. No sense in arguing. Still love the team, still gonna back them no matter what.

 

[Alwalys]

Ok so if jones ever becomes an amazing goalie, I'll say "****, I cant believe I was wrong. My pride is more important being a fan of this team, so I'm gonna walk away and never root for them again, because I have guts and stick to a prediction I made that ended up being wrong. Guts." Chill out Roenick, of course I'll be happy if I'm wrong, because that is a good thing for the team. I only said that because I am explaining that I don't WANT Jones to be average, but unfortunately he IS so far. It's not about trying to be right or about guts

how about we let the season play out for christ's sake. our injury situation has ****ED this team up and it's impossible to say what will happen once that all clears up.

given the caliber of injured players there's every reason to believe things improve MASSIVELY.

 

[Led Zappa]

You don't expect failure but you should plan for it. I.e., you should consider the best case scenarios, the worst case scenarios, and try to guess what is most likely (and what that probable range is, with some kind of confidence ranges). You also should do whatever is reasonable to minimize the potential downside risks. That is part of the job of anyone who runs a business.

What's your point? If you think picking up Ward, Martin and Jones expecting to miss the PO's should be the expectation I don't know what to tell ya. There was no deal for Jones with a protected pick. We needed a starting goaltender. DW didn't do anything wrong in the offseason IMO and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out.

If you didn't like the trade you didn't like the trade. Fine. I do. What you don't do is pre-date your Wilson hate based on not making the PO's and having your pick turn into a Top 3 pick, but being fine with it if we make the PO's and Jones turns into a star.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Team played fine offensively without Couture in the 3rd. Still too many defensive gaffs in their own end and Jones played those 2 in the 3rd horribly.

Common theme of those 3 goals, they drove and got in front of the net.

 

[Alwalys]

Team played fine offensively without Couture in the 3rd. Still too many defensive gaffs in their own end and Jones played those 2 in the 3rd horribly.

Missing couture affects that.

 

[hockeyball]

Trust me, I'd love for jones to become that great of a goalie. But he hasn't shown any reason to believe that he will. Maybe I'll eat crow, and if so, I'll do so happily.

You are being absurd. He's posted very good numbers for a goalie who has never played a full season, and whose team is playing like absolute garbage.

Go back and look at Price's stats when he entered the league. Hell that entire fanbase wanted him gone for awhile. I wanted to trade for him and a lot of people around here laughed. Now he's maybe the best goalie in hockey. Have a modicum of patience ffs.

 

[CrypTic]

What's your point? If you think picking up Ward, Martin and Jones expecting to miss the PO's should be the expectation I don't know what to tell ya. There was no deal for Jones with a protected pick. We needed a starting goaltender. DW didn't do anything wrong in the offseason IMO and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out.

If you didn't like the trade you didn't like the trade. Fine. I do. What you don't do is pre-date your Wilson hate based on not making the PO's and having your pick turn into a Top 3 pick, but being fine with it if we make the PO's and Jones turns into a star.

I was disagreeing with your statement that you don't plan for failure. IMO you have to. I don't know where all this stuff you posted here is coming from.

I said that you don't expect to lose but you plan for it. So why are you coming back, acting like I said that DW should have expected the Sharks to lose? But he should have foreseen that there was a substantial risk that the Sharks would miss the playoffs, just like there was a reasonable chance that they would make the playoffs. It's not good to be either too optimistic or too pessimistic. You need to try to evaluate the range of somewhat likely outcomes and have some kind of protection against the downside and a plan for if that happens as well as some way to capitalize on the upside if that happens. You need to plan for both.

Do you have some insider info about there being no deal for acquiring Jones with a protected pick?

I'm not sure what you mean about pre-dating my hate. I don't hate DW. I haven't liked the unprotected first since I heard about the deal but I acknowledge that I wasn't in on the negotiations, nor on DW's talks with other GMs who had goalies available. I won't be surprised if Jones turns out to be an excellent goalie. I was one of the few ppl here who wanted DW to offer sheet him back when ppl were fanticizing about whom to offer sheet. I only say that bc I like Jones. I think most of the offer sheet discussions (like most of the trade discussions) are fantasies so that's not the standard I'm using here. Even if we win the Cup, I will think that DW should have lottery protected the pick bc I am basing my opinion on the information available at the time of the trade, not hindsight.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Missing couture affects that.

Somewhat. It's a forward and d issue right now so one guy isn't the solution. They simply need to execute better.

 

[Alwalys]

I was disagreeing with your statement that you don't plan for failure. IMO you have to. I don't know where all this stuff you posted here is coming from.

I said that you don't expect to lose but you plan for it. So why are you coming back, acting like I said that DW should have expected the Sharks to lose? But he should have foreseen that there was a substantial risk that the Sharks would miss the playoffs, just like there was a reasonable chance that they would make the playoffs. It's not good to be either too optimistic or too pessimistic. You need to try to evaluate the range of somewhat likely outcomes and have some kind of protection against the downside and a plan for if that happens as well as some way to capitalize on the upside if that happens. You need to plan for both.

This is a whole bunch of "duh" ... but if you can't get it protected, you can't. In the end it actually doesn't really hurt you much because the pick goes out of conference. If you are confident in the quality of the asset you are trading for, it doesn't really matter what happens in the first year of his development.

I also disagree completely with the idea that there is a substantial risk they will miss the playoffs. It will take sustained very very bad luck, and even that has nothing to do with the quality of the asset acquired.

 

[Led Zappa]

I was disagreeing with your statement that you don't plan for failure. IMO you have to. I don't know where all this stuff you posted here is coming from.

I said that you don't expect to lose but you plan for it. So why are you coming back, acting like I said that DW should have expected the Sharks to lose? But he should have foreseen that there was a substantial risk that the Sharks would miss the playoffs, just like there was a reasonable chance that they would make the playoffs. It's not good to be either too optimistic or too pessimistic. You need to try to evaluate the range of somewhat likely outcomes and have some kind of protection against the downside and a plan for if that happens as well as some way to capitalize on the upside if that happens. You need to plan for both.

Do you have some insider info about there being no deal for acquiring Jones with a protected pick?

I'm not sure what you mean about pre-dating my hate. I don't hate DW. I haven't liked the unprotected first since I heard about the deal but I acknowledge that I wasn't in on the negotiations, nor on DW's talks with other GMs who had goalies available. I won't be surprised if Jones turns out to be an excellent goalie. I was one of the few ppl here who wanted DW to offer sheet him back when ppl were fanticizing about whom to offer sheet. I only say that bc I like Jones. I think most of the offer sheet discussions (like most of the trade discussions) are fantasies so that's not the standard I'm using here. Even if we win the Cup, I will think that DW should have lottery protected the pick bc I am basing my opinion on the information available at the time of the trade, not hindsight.

Well, you entered a conversation which was based on someone who said they would say DW totally ****ed up IF it becomes a top 10 pick. The rest of your post is pretty standard logic, which isn't used much around here.

And you'd have to think DW is pretty ****ing stupid to have not tried to make the pick lottery protected. I don't think he's an idiot, so I'm confident that deal couldn't be made. YMMV.

 

[Sharksrule04]

What's your point? If you think picking up Ward, Martin and Jones expecting to miss the PO's should be the expectation I don't know what to tell ya. There was no deal for Jones with a protected pick. We needed a starting goaltender. DW didn't do anything wrong in the offseason IMO and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out.

If you didn't like the trade you didn't like the trade. Fine. I do. What you don't do is pre-date your Wilson hate based on not making the PO's and having your pick turn into a Top 3 pick, but being fine with it if we make the PO's and Jones turns into a star.

I'm a big Wilson supporter so you won't get that from me however I would have thrown more into that trade to lottery protect the pick if possible. If not, I'm still fine with the trade.

 

[CrypTic]

Well, you entered a conversation which was based on someone who said they would say DW totally ****ed up IF it becomes a top 10 pick. The rest of your post is pretty standard logic, which isn't used much around here.

And you'd have to think DW is pretty ****ing stupid to have not tried to make the pick lottery protected. I don't think he's an idiot, so I'm confident that deal couldn't be made. YMMV.

I guess we just got our wires crossed then. I agree with you that it's not fair to DW to blast him if we end up winning the lottery but praise him if we go deep in the playoffs. (Although, if someone did that, at least they'd be consistent, unlike someone who only did one or the other. They'd be judging the trade based on hindsight.)

I disagree with your logic about DW lottery protecting the pick. I'm sure he asked bc if he didn't he was an idiot. I'm sure Sweeney's opening position was that he wanted an unprotected 1st bc he's not an idiot. What we don't know is what happened in the negotiations after that. How hard did DW press? What else did he offer? How inflexible was Sweeney? Did DW use his leverage of Boston being somewhat close to the cap and wanting to sign other players and having no real need for Jones (and very few if any other teams wanting a goalie at that point)? Neither of us will ever know that.

I think that an unprotected 1st for Jones was overpayment and I don't like to see that. It's a pet peeve of mine. I think DW did that with Dillon (and said so at the time). I've thought that about other trades as well. (Not all of them.) I think in the long run, it hurts the team even if the player pans out or even exceeds expectations. But that's one of my pet peeves and I don't expect others to share it.

 

[tahoesharksfan]

They simply need to execute better.

Truly! They've already given up several this year on simple line changes...

 

[Bleedred]

Trust me, I'd love for jones to become that great of a goalie. But he hasn't shown any reason to believe that he will. Maybe I'll eat crow, and if so, I'll do so happily.

He had a .920 save percentage on the season coming into this game. It's only 22 games worth of material, but a .920 over the course of a season would be excellent.

Had to do the math since the NHL.com app has no updated things after tonight's game yet.

He's now down to a .916 on the season, if I got that right. He was at .923 before the Calgary game. We're still early enough into the season where two games like that could sink him pretty significantly.

.916 is pretty much on par with what Niemi provided here for most of his seasons, he averaged .917 as a Shark over those 5 years.

I always said if Niemi is going, we need to find an upgrade to him. That's not exactly an upgrade to him just yet, but I'm willing to give him more time.

Goals 1 through 3 tonight, ranged from semi stoppable to really horrible.

 

[dechire]

I was sick and slept through the game but it seems like that was a good thing. Hope Couture will be okay and Vlasic will be back soon. Sure this team is having problems but the injuries to key players certainly aren't helping.

 

[Bleedred]

The only silver lining is the two points help keep Edmonton out of the dumpster.

Would have liked an OT win, so they get just one point but Sharks get two.

Another silver lining was no shootout loss, would rather lose in overtime any day than even bother wondering if the shootout could have been a win. Unless it was like the last day of the regular season and the two points were a must and needed to get into the playoffs.

Concerned about losing 6 of 7 though, or is it 7 of 8 at this point? Can't keep track anymore.

 

[Timos Death Stare]

Thornton has looked terrible. Forcing passes, not making smart plays, looks slow. Ugh. He's starting to "lose a step" and he is becoming less effective.

 

[tiburon12]

Thornton has looked terrible. Forcing passes, not making smart plays, looks slow. Ugh. He's starting to "lose a step" and he is becoming less effective.

Came in to post this. Not sharp with passes of late, and has made some bad judgment calls leading to giveaways.

However, he is still very strong on the puck and does well on the cycle when he moves his feet. That Pavs goal highlighted what kind of game he can bring.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I guess we just got our wires crossed then. I agree with you that it's not fair to DW to blast him if we end up winning the lottery but praise him if we go deep in the playoffs. (Although, if someone did that, at least they'd be consistent, unlike someone who only did one or the other. They'd be judging the trade based on hindsight.)

It is completely fair to blast DW if a trade ends up going wrong, and praise him if it goes correctly. That's DW job...he must be primarily be judged on the results.

I understand that the situation "at the time" has some relevance to the discussion...a GM can't be preparing for every eventuality, and if something far out of left field affects the outcome of a trade, you give him a pass. But that kind of thing should happen infrequently, and in any case, that wouldn't apply to the Jones trade. The Sharks not making the playoffs wasn't some kind of ludicrous idea.

 

[Alwalys]

It is completely fair to blast DW if a trade ends up going wrong, and praise him if it goes correctly. That's DW job...he must be primarily be judged on the results.

I understand that the situation "at the time" has some relevance to the discussion...a GM can't be preparing for every eventuality, and if something far out of left field affects the outcome of a trade, you give him a pass. But that kind of thing should happen infrequently, and in any case, that wouldn't apply to the Jones trade. The Sharks not making the playoffs wasn't some kind of ludicrous idea.

it is fairly ludicrous to even approach where we were last season, but a bottom 3 finish would be ludicrous. and as mentioned earlier, it still has no real effect on the value of the asset. if jones turns out to be a solid starting goaltender, finishing even last overall doesn't change that.

 

[stator]

Thornton has looked terrible. Forcing passes, not making smart plays, looks slow. Ugh. He's starting to "lose a step" and he is becoming less effective.

This, regardless of the Pavs goal. Thornton needs to go down and center the 3rd line. Yes, he's a future HOFer, but no, he's not Mr Precious.

My guess is that DeBoer is staying away from addressing this as he probably sees what happened last year. In the end, though, he gives too much latitude to Thornton who's not producing.

 

[Ninja Hertl]

DeBoer already gives veteran players the benefit of the doubt, I don't see Thornton going anywhere unless he sucks for 25+ games.

going anywhere being the 3rd line

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Truly! They've already given up several this year on simple line changes...

Bad line changes, guys running into one another, players not picking up their guy, the goalie playing too deep in the net. Just not winning hockey the past 5 games.

 

[casubieowner]

Bad line changes, guys running into one another, players not picking up their guy, the goalie playing too deep in the net. Just not winning hockey the past 5 games.

DeBoer has been playing the top two lines & his top 4 D a lot. Wonder if that extra ice team is just catching up with them. The injuries certainly haven't helped either