Speculation: Sam Reinhart - Next contract discussion

[austropanther]

I think that will be the scenario yes…

That’s why I’m even more pissed at Duke’s production since coming back !

If only he scored a little, we could say he is getting back to form, and find his groove, and get value out of him.

With his performances since the comeback, we would be lucky to get a third for the guy…

And you know that if we get in the playoffs, this is not where his value will get pumped either.

The guy was responsible for the Sabres disallowed goal last night, with his brain-dead and soft-ass play on the board, behind the net… Duke wouldn’t have survived our training camp !

Keep the Sams, ALWAYS keep the Sams !!!

Completely agree, yet there were a few plays by Duke that showed he is on the right track. Drawing penalties on semi-breakaways and that beauty of a pass on Verhaege's 4th goal against CBJ... he still has the speed and skill and will get more solid each shift he plays this season.

In the end thoug Reinhart is always more important than Duke.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Outside of scoring. Reinhart does a lot of other things well that I like as well. He's good with puck possession, good hockey IQ, good grit, decent defensively, creates offensive chances (one of the best on this team), can play on any line.
The missed chances he had, I look at like this, nobody's perfect. At least he's in position to get or create those chances.
It would be hard to replace that stuff IMO, if he leaves.

 

[KW]

People use the term “hockey IQ” but I’ve never heard anyone say that so-and-so has low hockey IQ.

For example, GOAT Las Olas supposedly had high hockey IQ but he threw that pass right through the middle of the ice against Buffalo, that caused a Buffalo PP, eventually resulting in the 6-on-3 scramble. That was a low IQ play I guess.

So Reinhart has made some very low IQ plays when having an empty or near empty net to shoot at. He’s also made some high IQ plays with tips on PP and such. But overall through the season his hockey IQ is average, not high.

Unless just thinking about hockey is a high IQ thing, even without doing anything. In which case I’m a f***ing hockey genius.

 

[austropanther]

People use the term “hockey IQ” but I’ve never heard anyone say that so-and-so has low hockey IQ.

For example, GOAT Las Olas supposedly had high hockey IQ but he threw that pass right through the middle of the ice against Buffalo, that caused a Buffalo PP, eventually resulting in the 6-on-3 scramble. That was a low IQ play I guess.

So Reinhart has made some very low IQ plays when having an empty or near empty net to shoot at. He’s also made some high IQ plays with tips on PP and such. But overall through the season his hockey IQ is average, not high.

Unless just thinking about hockey is a high IQ thing, even without doing anything. In which case I’m a f***ing hockey genius.

Lundell showed great hockey IQ on the mentioned play because he saw that 2 players were completely open. His execution was bad because not exact enough! Same goes with Reinhart: the execution is not on point but seeing the chances, the open player and where he has to put himself on the ice to even be in high-danger situations makes him a player with high IQ!

 

[pantherbot]

He's the guy who gets handed all of the layups on the power play. He should probably have 40 goals, or close to it.

Again, I don't think he's ever going to have luck this bad over a full season again, but it's super frustrating.

Yeah but that's because he's in position for those primo chances. Probably why his career shooting percentage is so high. Maybe you could argue those chances should go in more often but just being in the right place is half the battle and can't really be taught. If he went back to care average he'd be close to 40, so fair point, but 30-40 goal scorers aren't easy to find.

We've created many ~30 goal guys dating back to Marchessault of recent past.

Barkov, Verheaghe and Tkachuk should all be 30ish goal players for a while.

Dadonov had 28 twice
Hoffman had 36 and 29 in 69 games
Trocheck had 30
Huberdeau had 30
Duclair had 31
Reinhart back to back 30 goal

We can produce multiple 20+ goal guys and have ability to create 30 goal guys as well. Not saying to get rid of Reinhart just because but if he's able to land a top 4 D we can re-sign, go for it.

If not, I'm just unsure we give out another long term deal on forward that may be close to 8 mil per.

I'm not tied to the guy, heck I was willing to trade him when it looked like we were a near-miss at the TDL, so if the return is right I'd trade pretty much anyone not named Tkachuk. But, he's already on the team, he's a good fit for the org, and he's a good player. So if he comes at a reasonable price, I'd prefer to keep him since we'd just have to replace him otherwise.

I also doubt anyone would trade a top-4 dman for Reinhart or the assets required for him, unless it was one of those TDL acquisitions by some contender looking for scoring boost.

 

[pantherbot]

People use the term “hockey IQ” but I’ve never heard anyone say that so-and-so has low hockey IQ.

For example, GOAT Las Olas supposedly had high hockey IQ but he threw that pass right through the middle of the ice against Buffalo, that caused a Buffalo PP, eventually resulting in the 6-on-3 scramble. That was a low IQ play I guess.

So Reinhart has made some very low IQ plays when having an empty or near empty net to shoot at. He’s also made some high IQ plays with tips on PP and such. But overall through the season his hockey IQ is average, not high.

Unless just thinking about hockey is a high IQ thing, even without doing anything. In which case I’m a f***ing hockey genius.

Some players are discussed as having low hockey IQ all the time. It means they have the physical tools, but don't know the right plays to make.

Missing a scoring chance while being in a prime position is not an example of low IQ, it's an example of high IQ (by anticipating play and being in the right place at the right time), but poor physical skills execution.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I'm not tied to the guy, heck I was willing to trade him when it looked like we were a near-miss at the TDL, so if the return is right I'd trade pretty much anyone not named Tkachuk. But, he's already on the team, he's a good fit for the org, and he's a good player. So if he comes at a reasonable price, I'd prefer to keep him since we'd just have to replace him otherwise.

I also doubt anyone would trade a top-4 dman for Reinhart or the assets required for him, unless it was one of those TDL acquisitions by some contender looking for scoring boost.

It'd likely be a limited D for F trade market but ya never know.

Definitely appreciate all the pros of Reinhart, will be an interesting story that plays out through offseason.

If he loves it in FLA that much, maybe Zito can negotiate down to 7 yr x $6.5 mil?
He's been 25 goal, 60ish pt player on a 82 game career average.
Of course he's improved on goal scoring but unsure he tops 80 pts again?

 

[KW]

Some players are discussed as having low hockey IQ all the time.

Examples? Links?

My point is that “hockey IQ” has undergone severe grade inflation. Half of NHL seems to have high IQ. Which to me is misleading because it’s primarily a comparative statement, so any population — in this case NHL players — would be normalized to “average IQ”, with a normal distribution of tails to high IQ and low IQ. This is not how it is used, so I disagree that it’s a well used and explained metric.

Its only intent is to generate hype about a player, often an average player. High IQ players have vision and anticipation, and thus they find themselves at the right place at the right time more often than other players do. Wayne Gretzky has had empirically the highest hockey IQ ever, judging by results.

Reino does not have high hockey IQ. He’s probably above average, but that’s not “high”.

 

[pantherbot]

Examples? Links?

My point is that “hockey IQ” has undergone severe grade inflation. Half of NHL seems to have high IQ. Which to me is misleading because it’s primarily a comparative statement, so any population — in this case NHL players — would be normalized to “average IQ”, with a normal distribution of tails to high IQ and low IQ. This is not how it is used, so I disagree that it’s a well used and explained metric.

Its only intent is to generate hype about a player, often an average player. High IQ players have vision and anticipation, and thus they find themselves at the right place at the right time more often than other players do. Wayne Gretzky has had empirically the highest hockey IQ ever, judging by results.

Reino does not have high hockey IQ. He’s probably above average, but that’s not “high”.

I'm not really sure what we're debating here. That there's no such thing as hockey IQ or that Reinhart isn't a high hockey IQ player? This gets graded on prospects all the time.

Some players are smarter about where to go and how other players will react to the play, I'm not sure why that's up for debate. Obviously it's all relative to the league, even the dumbest NHLer will have higher hockey IQ than your average minor-leaguer.

I don't think anyone is saying Reinhart is a genius, just that he seems pretty smart and is above average as you said. Not sure what the problem is with that. He's not particularly impressive in any physical category, but he seems to defend well, get into the lanes and helps get pucks out of the zone while on offense seems to be in the right place around the net. He's not a flashy or physically talented player, but he gets the job done.

 

[KW]

I'm not really sure what we're debating here. That there's no such thing as hockey IQ or that Reinhart isn't a high hockey IQ player? This gets graded on prospects all the time.

Some players are smarter about where to go and how other players will react to the play, I'm not sure why that's up for debate. Obviously it's all relative to the league, even the dumbest NHLer will have higher hockey IQ than your average minor-leaguer.

I don't think anyone is saying Reinhart is a genius, just that he seems pretty smart and is above average as you said. Not sure what the problem is with that. He's not particularly impressive in any physical category, but he seems to defend well, get into the lanes and helps get pucks out of the zone while on offense seems to be in the right place around the net. He's not a flashy or physically talented player, but he gets the job done.

Okay. I guess mine was just a general comment about hockey IQ. Not directed at anyone here. I just see it thrown around and feel it’s becoming meaningless… but it shouldn’t be… for example Barkov obviously has high hockey IQ, among the best in the league, even when his own game is otherwise not clicking like it used to, he’s still able to make and stop plays due to the IQ factor. I guess my whole thing is only that I’d like it thrown around less… JMO nothing more and probably mostly meaningless chatter.

 

[austropanther]

Okay. I guess mine was just a general comment about hockey IQ. Not directed at anyone here. I just see it thrown around and feel it’s becoming meaningless… but it shouldn’t be… for example Barkov obviously has high hockey IQ, among the best in the league, even when his own game is otherwise not clicking like it used to, he’s still able to make and stop plays due to the IQ factor. I guess my whole thing is only that I’d like it thrown around less… JMO nothing more and probably mostly meaningless chatter.

But in the end, Reinhart DOES have a high IQ in your opinion, or not? I'd say yes because the guy sees so many options for plays that most others don't have at all in their repertoire.

 

[Ghoste]

When the trade went down I remember asking the Sabers board about Sam. And quite a few mentioned his high IQ more than anything. And I believe they were correct.

-ghoste

 

[pantherbot]

Okay. I guess mine was just a general comment about hockey IQ. Not directed at anyone here. I just see it thrown around and feel it’s becoming meaningless… but it shouldn’t be… for example Barkov obviously has high hockey IQ, among the best in the league, even when his own game is otherwise not clicking like it used to, he’s still able to make and stop plays due to the IQ factor. I guess my whole thing is only that I’d like it thrown around less… JMO nothing more and probably mostly meaningless chatter.

Ah gotcha, that's fair. I don't see it mentioned too much, but that's just me. Maybe commentators also throw it around for smart plays and some players are better than others at certain aspects of the game, may not mean that they are overall an above-average IQ player.

I don't pretend to be a hockey expert at all, just an armchair guy who has played like super lower levels. Things I watch for high hockey IQ are like breaking up passes, making outlet passes/chips, good passes to open players or being open in the ozone, moving in direction of play before it even happens, stuff like that. Who knows if I'm right or not lol, but I think most agree Reinhart is above average hockey smart.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I take back the silly thought of trading Reino from a year ago.
My nickname at work is Ryno (Ryan) so the bond cannot be broken now, he must stay a Panther. He's been reward with a consistent bump on TOI on top line now and he's ran with it, could be another 30+ goal, 80 pt year for him.

Since coming here:

Reg season:

73 goals, 37 ESG, 35 PPG, 1 SHG
166 pts
173 games [only missed 4 games so far]
+22.
Averaging 19 mins of TOI. He's already at 21 mins this year.

Playoffs:

11 goals [7 ESG, 4 PPG]
17 pts
31 games

Didn't think he'd have leverage for $9 mil ask when thread was started but if Zito can somehow get this guy inked for around $8 mil per, I may get a Billy Z tattoo across my heart.

I know Tkachuk trade will be Zitos crowning achievement but Reinhart has been an elite pickup so far.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

I think you try to extend him if the price is reasonable, and if not, well,

I'll say this: I don't think it's possible -- not in a thousand years -- that he again flubs as many prime scoring chances / open net opportunities as he has this year. It's been kind of surreal, honestly.

Gonna pat myself on the back for predicting he'd bury more chances this year.

 

[Panteras]

I remember Maurice last year talking about Reino. He said if he ever needs to ask for advise or opinion from someone on the bench it is with Reino, or something along those lines. He also said if there’s one guy he sees becoming a coach after their career it’s Reino. Sign that man.

 

[I am not exposed]

I don't think we are going to be able to afford him.

 

[Chaos2k7]

I don't think we are going to be able to afford him.

I could see Rhino taking security over salary. He is happy here playing meaningful hockey.

 

[I am not exposed]

I could see Rhino taking security over salary. He is happy here playing meaningful hockey.

I hope so.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Could see Zito leverage some Signing Bonus money during year 4-6 of the Reinhart deal when Barkov and Tkachuk's SB money drops big time (2026-27) and Bob's deal is long gone.

8.25 mil to 8.5 mil seems about the top territory I'd think Zito wants to hit.
The term is gonna suck either way, don't see him taking less than 7 years.

I don't think we are going to be able to afford him.

I could see Rhino taking security over salary. He is happy here playing meaningful hockey.

 

[KW]

I could see Rhino taking security over salary. He is happy here playing meaningful hockey.

That’s actually a pretty good point… for counter example, see Jonathan Huberdeau. I’m sure Rhino would prefer 7-8M for 5-6 years over 9-10M for 5 years on an unpredictable team where life can become misery very quickly.

Plus Florida has the lowest tax, beats NY by 10%, give or take.

 

[TotalHomer]

7.5 million x 8

If he walks to UFA the max anyone can give is seven years and would have to offer 8.5 million AAV to match that offer. So probably at least 9 million AAV to make Rhino even consider leaving. I think most of the teams will balk at that price tag.

 

[Laus723]

Friedman on Mondays podcast:

He doesn't know how close it is, but there's a deal to get done with Reino. He thinks it's gonna be under Tkachuk. He believes the team and the agent know what each side wants and doesn't see it as impossible.

 

[Chaos2k7]

Friedman on Mondays podcast:

He doesn't know how close it is, but there's a deal to get done with Reino. He thinks it's gonna be under Tkachuk. He believes the team and the agent know what each side wants and doesn't see it as impossible.

This is why the top guys should take a little less, it keeps everyone from trying to break the bank.

 

[Marco 85]

Rhino is staying here. Period!

Him and his family love it here.
He has just built a new home.
Just a few minutes away from the
new practice facility.

He loves the team and management.

He knows what it’s like to lose in Buffalo.
He wants to win here.

He’ll get his money and finish his career here.