it will all depend on what they end up losing.
the NHL has already made about 4 billion based on projecting 84-88. They have to make about a billion more to “break even”.
From the atheletic player salaries are about 2.5 billion. So again that makes it a 5 billion dollar year. Moreover. They already gave 14% escrow.
That means 350 million is already in the pot.
So that makes the current split 2.5 billion-350 million = 2.15 billion for the platers. 1.85 billion for the owners.
to “break even” for this year the league will have to make up about 300 million in revenues this playoff to even up the split from what I can figure.
that’s doable. Locking the cap for a few years Wouldn’t help in that case I don’t think
You need to factor in:
- $120-140m in non salary benefits. Note: some of these would be reduced if there's no playoffs.
- The players were still going to lose 5-10% of the escrow even if this season wasn't suspended.
Rough napkin math:
- Revenue in 2018-19 was approximately $5.1B.
- Per the December BoG guidance, the NHL was projecting approximately a 4% increase in revenue this season, which would be a total of ~$5.3B
- Players would receive ~$2.65B. Subtracting out $130m for non-salary benefits means players receiving about $2.52B in salary.
- Players last season lost 9.8% of their paychecks to final escrow.
- With the slight lowering of the escalator for 2019-20 let's assume the players were on course to lose 8% in 2019-20.
- 8% loss would translate into player compensation in 2019-20 projected at $2.74B.
- Per Larry Brooks, the PA informed its members that worst case scenario for the players would be 35% escrow loss (this includes the withheld 14%). Presuming this scenario is season canceled, but could possibly include revenue that is eventually collected.
- Losing 35% of $2.74B would mean the players giving up $960m.
- The 35% figure would translate to HRR for 2019-20 of approximately $3.75B. A 30% drop from the $5.3B projection. Note: I reduced the non-salary benefits here to $90m to back out some of the non-payed league playoff bonus money.