News Article: Salary Cap could fall $1.3M, however Bettman projects $71.5M Cap

[Husko]

How old will Kane be when that contract expires?

 

[joshjull]

How old will Kane be when that contract expires?

He will be 34 I think

 

[jc17]

LA:

Big RFA's: Toffoli, Jones

Albatross contracts:

Other non NMC contracts:

D
Green (2.5M till 2018)
Martinez (4 M till 2021)
Muzzin (4 M till 2020)

I'd look to get Muzzin from them.

 

[DazedandConfused]

What do you mean?

Atlanta got Buff, Ladd, Eager, Sopel and a couple other small peices off the first Chicago cap tweaking.

Don't think it'd be that similar though.

 

[old kummelweck]

Do the Sabres want to be like Atlanta was when they got Big Buff?

Personally, Kane's contract would scare me in the same way that signing Tarasenko to an OS scares me. And Kane's got a bigger contract.

In 5 years, that Kane contract wont look so scary.

From 2005 - 2008, the cap went up over 10% each year.
2009 it didn't move
2010 it went up 4%
2011 it went up 7.6%
2012 it contracted -7%
2013 and 2014 it went up over 6%
2015 it is expected to contract -2%

That's 40% increase in 10 years. Right now, Kane's contract is 15% of their cap. In 5 years that'll be closer to 10% based on the past 10 year trend.

 

[TehDoak]

In 5 years, that Kane contract wont look so scary.

From 2005 - 2008, the cap went up over 10% each year.
2009 it didn't move
2010 it went up 4%
2011 it went up 7.6%
2012 it contracted -7%
2013 and 2014 it went up over 6%
2015 it is expected to contract -2%

That's 40% increase in 10 years. Right now, Kane's contract is 15% of their cap. In 5 years that'll be closer to 10% based on the past 10 year trend.

But that just isn't repeatable. In fact the latest CBA made changes to prevent that kind of cap escalation.

Also most of the gains MADE by the cap at that time were rising crude oil prices which drove the Canadian dollar high compared to US $.

The reason the cap is shrinking this year? The canadian dollar is down due to crude prices crashing.

We'll see some growth, but I'd be shocked if the cap eclipsed 82-84 M by the end of the decade. It'll be alot slower (1-2% a year). Kane's cap hit would likely shrink from 15% to 12-13%

You also need to consider expansion teams.

The "dumbed down" version of how the salary cap is determined is Revenue*.5/# teams = cap (I know, that only determines the mid point between the floor and ceiling, but i did say dumbed down version)

So, we had two teams, both of which will likely be revenue neutral to start(my guess is that their expansion fee(s) will be added over several years to prevent a one year cap escalation), it should slow cap growth even more.

 

[Paxon]

But that just isn't repeatable. In fact the latest CBA made changes to prevent that kind of cap escalation.

Also most of the gains MADE by the cap at that time were rising crude oil prices which drove the Canadian dollar high compared to US $.

The reason the cap is shrinking this year? The canadian dollar is down due to crude prices crashing.

We'll see some growth, but I'd be shocked if the cap eclipsed 82-84 M by the end of the decade. It'll be alot slower (1-2% a year). Kane's cap hit would likely shrink from 15% to 12-13%

You also need to consider expansion teams.

The "dumbed down" version of how the salary cap is determined is Revenue*.5/# teams = cap (I know, that only determines the mid point between the floor and ceiling, but i did say dumbed down version)

So, we had two teams, both of which will likely be revenue neutral to start(my guess is that their expansion fee(s) will be added over several years to prevent a one year cap escalation), it should slow cap growth even more.

Expansion fees go directly and solely to the owners. The players don't get a piece so they're not relevant to the cap AFAIK.

 

[Jim Bob]

What do you mean?

Atlanta gave up a fair amount to help Chicago deal with their cap issues.

 

[Jim Bob]

Atlanta got Buff, Ladd, Eager, Sopel and a couple other small peices off the first Chicago cap tweaking.

Don't think it'd be that similar though.

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nhl/news/story?id=5320715

The Chicago Blackhawks made a blockbuster trade with the Thrashers on Wednesday, the Stanley Cup champions moving Dustin Byfuglien, Ben Eager, Brent Sopel and a prospect to Atlanta for a first-round pick, a second-round pick, forwards Marty Reasoner and Joey Crabb and prospect Jeremy Morin.


The first- and second-round picks that Chicago gets in the deal were acquired by Atlanta in the trade that sent Ilya Kovalchuk to New Jersey last February.

The prospect Atlanta is getting from Chicago is Akim Aliu.

Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman admitted that the deal was "simply a salary cap move."

"It's exactly what we set out to accomplish," he added. "To get some draft choices. ... There were a lot of other considerations and we're satisfied where we ended up."

Rick Dudley, who in April was promoted to general manager in Atlanta, said the deal made the Thrashers
"significantly better, immediately."

They didn't get Ladd in that deal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nhl/news/story?id=5346395

The Chicago Blackhawks continued their battle against the salary cap Thursday as the Stanley Cup champions traded Andrew Ladd to the Atlanta Thrashers.

The Hawks received Ivan Vishnevskiy and a second-round pick in next year's draft.

"I kind of knew it was coming," Ladd said on "The Afternoon Saloon" on ESPN 1000. "Obviously, you want to stay where you just won the Stanley Cup, but at the same time, I'm going to a team with a lot of familiar faces."

Chicago traded Dustin Byfuglien, Ben Eager and Brent Sopel to Atlanta on June 23.

 

[TehDoak]

Expansion fees go directly and solely to the owners. The players don't get a piece so they're not relevant to the cap AFAIK.

Didn't the relocation fee from WPG go towards the cap though?

Regardless, adding two revenue neutral (or negative) teams to the mix is going to slow cap growth. I don't think we'll see a 90M (or even 85M) cap in this CBA.

 

[sabrebuild]

Didn't the relocation fee from WPG go towards the cap though?

Regardless, adding two revenue neutral (or negative) teams to the mix is going to slow cap growth. I don't think we'll see a 90M (or even 85M) cap in this CBA.

I would bet on one of those expansion teams, if there are any, being Canadian. That team won't be revenue neutral in the slightest.

 

[TehDoak]

I would bet on one of those expansion teams, if there are any, being Canadian. That team won't be revenue neutral in the slightest.

My prediction is:

2016 LV Expansion
2017 Seattle or OKC Expansion
2018: ARZ to Canada relocation.

 

[Jim Bob]

My prediction is:

2016 LV Expansion
2017 Seattle or OKC Expansion
2018: ARZ to Canada relocation.

I love the irony of Seattle vs OKC.

 

[boots electric]

silfverberg is getting paid peanuts by anaheim. no idea what sort of cap situation the ducks are in, but i don't think he would be a bad target

 

[DazedandConfused]

silfverberg is getting paid peanuts by anaheim. no idea what sort of cap situation the ducks are in, but i don't think he would be a bad target

The Ducks are fine.

 

[dotcommunism]

So it's going to have to be one of, maybe two of, Sharpe or Hossa.

Hossa's not going anywhere. Chicago absolutely cannot afford to take on the risk of the recapture penalties which would be significantly higher if he's traded than if they hold onto him.

 

[Needles]

I'd probably offer Silferberg 4-5 year contract, 3.33 million per year. The compensation would be a 2nd round pick. But Ducks would match that with ease.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Kane's contract doesn't scare me as much. Sure on the later half it'll be a bit over paid, but I think Kane is going to be a bit like St Louis where he just keeps going. Kane almost never gets hit hard, he plays smart. He's got a few prime years left, then he'll slowly declining from being "elite" to just being "Good"

If we're talking potential Kane deals, gotta think Ennis is a starting point. The list I threw together was basically me throwing a bunch of things at all the wall.

Kane for Ennis, 2016 1st (net capspace +5.9 M)
Bickell for Foligno (net capspace, +2.1 M)
Hodgson (net -900k buyout)
Crawford (+6 M)
+ Grigerenko/Larsson?

13 M or so cap space saved for Chicago?

Please let this go. It got closed on the main board because it's so outlandish.

 

[Husko]

Hossa's not going anywhere. Chicago absolutely cannot afford to take on the risk of the recapture penalties which would be significantly higher if he's traded than if they hold onto him.

In that case I just can't fathom anyway they get out of this situation without moving Sharp.

 

[omglolnub]

I think the Sabres will pull an Islanders from last fall and poach a couple of decent/good veterans from some of the teams that can't afford to keep them cause they wanna keep their kids more.

 

[RoofIt5hole]

Oh man.... that's the writing on the wall for the Blackhawks, Bruins, Kings, Lightning and Canucks.

Why shoot for offer sheets? You may be able to get a guy like P. Kane or Krejci via young assets.

Zero chance Krejci or Kane are going anywhere. Only shot realistically is At Saad. And that's only if Bowman can't find anyone to take Versteeg, Shaw, Bickell, & Sharp. The Hawks could also possibly float Crawford on the market if they make a deep run with Darling...

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

My prediction is:

2016 LV Expansion
2017 Seattle or OKC Expansion
2018: ARZ to Canada relocation.

I get where you are going and agree in part, but I don't see any way the league does 3 straight years of expansion drafts/divisional shuffling/etc.

 

[Moskau]

Ultimately there will be legal circumvention and clever cap management that will get most of the teams under the cap with their RFAs signed.

 

[MayDay]

When is the salary cap figure for next season officially announced?

Before July 1, I am assuming?

 

[Paxon]

When is the salary cap figure for next season officially announced?

Before July 1, I am assuming?

The article from NHL.com announcing last year's was June 28th. It might be a few days earlier without the Olympics stretching out the schedule.