Safe or Sorry: Blackhawks 15-16 roster

[CallMeShaft]

With our impending trouble with the cap after this season is over, we may see some friendly faces fade away. It is never easy to see a player we have grown to love leave the team. It is, however, fun to make a game of it.

It's simple, all players currently on the roster (sans Mashinter) are listed below. Put them into two groups, safe (meaning they'll still be playing for the Blackhawks a year from now) or sorry (they're gone). For each correct guess a user predicts, he or she gets a point. Who ever has the most points by the time of the 15-16 cap deadline, that person wins. Feel free to inquire about the rules if need be.

Current Roster (in no particular order):
Sharp
Toews
Hossa
Saad
Shaw
Kane
Bickell
Richards
Versteeg
Morin
Kruger
Smith
Carcillo
Keith
Seabrook
Hjalmarsson
Van Riemsdyk
Rundblad
Oduya
Cumisky
Rozsival
Crawford
Raanta

Click to read more...

 

[CallMeShaft]

My guesses:

Safe
Toews
Hossa
Saad
Shaw
Kane
Versteeg
Morin
Smith
Keith
Seabrook
Hammer
Van Riemsdyk
Crawford
Raanta

Sorry
Sharp
Bickell
Richards
Kruger
Carcillo
Rundblad
Oduya
Cumisky
Roszival

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Safe
Keith
Toews
Kane
Saad
Shaw
Hammer
Crawford

Everyone else sorry or potentially sorry

 

[CallMeShaft]

Seeing BWC's comment reminds me, if you'd rather just put one category with all your players, go ahead. I'll just consider every player not listed in one grouping, to be in the other.

 

[Taze em]

I'm really going to enjoy next year's team seeing what young guys become the next Saad's, Bolland's and Frolik's while still being a favorite.

As far as who is leaving, I wouldn't feel comfortable as Kruger, Oduya, Bickell, Richards, Versteeg. I think those are the guys we lose.

 

[Taze em]

Safe
Keith
Toews
Kane
Saad
Shaw
Hammer
Crawford

Everyone else sorry or potentially sorry

I wouldn't put Crawford on the "core" list. I don't think it happens but it wouldn't be as mind blowing as the others if he was moved.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

I wouldn't put Crawford on the "core" list. I don't think it happens but it wouldn't be as mind blowing as the others if he was moved.

Hawks aren't moving him after 1 year of his deal and even if they wanted to move him no one will trade for that contract

 

[Mad Dog Madison]

I'll second that Crow's contract makes him about as untradeable as Luongo was a few years ago.

I'm not knocking Crow, but that contract doesn't match up to his skill. He's an above average goalie, but certainly not top 5.

 

[UsernameWasTaken]

I wouldn't put Crawford on the "core" list. I don't think it happens but it wouldn't be as mind blowing as the others if he was moved.

It would be completely mindblowing if he were moved given we have no replacement in the system and the going rate for even a less proven starter is at least $6m (that's what Schneider was extended for; Bishop was extended for $5.95; Varlamov is at $5.9; Bernier will probably come in the same range next summer).

I'll second that Crow's contract makes him about as untradeable as Luongo was a few years ago.

I'm not knocking Crow, but that contract doesn't match up to his skill. He's an above average goalie, but certainly not top 5.

The current cost of an average goalie is $6m and quickly rising.

 

[Bubba88]

Safe
Toews
Hossa
Saad
Shaw
Kane
Smith
Keith
Seabrook
Hammer
Van Riemsdyk
Crawford


All the others could be gone

 

[LordKOTL]

Safe:
Toews
Kane
Keith
Seabrook
Hammer
Shaw
Crawford

Everyone else:
Saad: Hinges on his play this year. If he can be a top 6 winger and put up more than 20 goals, He'll remain

Sharp/Hossa: One stays and one goes. I think it mostly hinges on how much Hossa regresses (if at all), and whether or not Saad looks good enough in the top-6 to make losing Sharp something the team can mitigate. Right now I have Hoss over Sharp: He may be older and not score as many goals, but he's cheaper, is our best defensive forward, scores almost as much as Sharp, and is nearly impossible to get the puck away from.

Versteeg: Will depend on his play. Based on last season, He wasn't worth league minimum. This preseason he looked to better. After he's healed from the injury sustained by a Duncan Keith Shin-seeking pointshotâ„¢ we will have to evaluate his play over the course of a season.

Morin: I like the Shaw-lite snarl this kid brings to the bottom-6. Unfortunately Q doesn't like him. May be gone on that and that alone.

Bickell: At his cost he's going to have to perform both in the reg. season and the offseason. Much like Saad, I think it's not unreasonable to expect 20+ goals/40+ points out of him (even on the 3rd line) if we expect to keep him. May be a cap casualty off of cost alone.

Kruger: His type of player is a dime a dozen. He may very well be worth more than he earns, and may be lost due to that alone. I love him on our squad but realistically, he could probably make more money elsewhere.

Smith: Probably fairly safe, but not untouchable. Solid bottom-end guy.

Oduya: For now is a good go-to option on the 2nd pairing opposite of Hammer, but if TVR continues to excel he might have to take a substantial hit in caqp next deal to remian.

Runblad: Likley not resigned

Richards: Likley not resigned

Carbomb: Likley not resigned

Maschinter: Likley not resigned

Cumiskey: Likley not resigned unless cheap and puts up a better showing

Rosival: I'd be surprised if he wasn't Pronger'ed the entire year.

Raanta: Depending on Darling (a.k.a Son of Beastmaster) and his progression, and what Raanta's progression might be, Raanta could be moved if he wants a starting job and Darling an sign cheaper than 750k.

 

[plank]

I'll predict Seabrook and Kruger get traded next summer and Oduya resigns for 2yrs/7mil. The following summer Sharp gets trade and then Bickell at the trade deadline. So basically my new "core" is Toews, Kane, Hossa, Saad, Keith and Hammer.
Edit: oh and Teuvo.

 

[x Tame Impala]

I'll second that Crow's contract makes him about as untradeable as Luongo was a few years ago.

I'm not knocking Crow, but that contract doesn't match up to his skill. He's an above average goalie, but certainly not top 5.

I don't understand this mentality anymore after the slew of new goalie contracts given out. Crawford has a standard goalie market contract

 

[Taze em]

Lose Richards, Oduya, Kruger and it basically works, not many rookies either:
CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
2015-2016 TE
FORWARDS
Patrick Sharp ($5.900m) / Jonathan Toews ($10.500m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Brandon Saad ($3.500m) / Andrew Shaw ($2.000m) / Patrick Kane ($10.500m)
Bryan Bickell ($4.000m) / Teuvo Teravainen ($0.894m) / Kris Versteeg ($2.200m)
Jeremy Morin ($0.800m) / Phillip Danault ($0.863m) / Ben Smith ($1.500m)
Brandon Mashinter ($0.563m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Brent Seabrook ($5.800m) / Duncan Keith ($5.538m)
Niklas Hjalmarsson ($4.100m) / Trevor Van Riemsdyk ($0.925m)
Klas Dahlbeck ($0.605m) / David Rundblad ($0.914m)
Stephen Johns ($0.800m) / Ville Pokka ($0.925m)
GOALTENDERS
Corey Crawford ($6.000m)
Antti Raanta ($0.750m)
BUYOUTS
Steve Montador ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $74,851,962; BONUSES: $1,650,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$5,851,962

[People talking about having to blow this team up need to look at the numbers

 

[cassac]

Unless the cap is $74 or $73 million. I don't see Saad signing for $3.5 either, unless he gives a hell of a team friendly bridge deal.

 

[Taze em]

Unless the cap is $74 or $73 million. I don't see Saad signing for $3.5 either, unless he gives a hell of a team friendly bridge deal.

Johansen went 4Mx3. Saad needs a 60 point 30 goal season to get 4x3. If not he's right where I have him.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I think Sharp and Kruger will be traded and the following UFA's will not be re-signed: Oduya, Rozsival, Comiskey, Rundblad, Carcillo

 

[Hawkaholic]

Not including prospects.

Safe:
Toews
Kane
Hossa
Keith
Seabrook
Hjalmarsson
Saad
Shaw
Crawford

In between:
Sharp
Bickell
Versteeg
Smith
Kruger
Morin
Oduya
Raanta

Sorry:
Richards
Carcillo
Roszival
Cumiskey
Rundblad

 

[ColdSteel2]

Why is Crawford safe? If Raanta shows improvement, we seriously need to consider moving Crawford and keeping the rest of the team together.

 

[Illinihockey]

Lose Richards, Oduya, Kruger and it basically works, not many rookies either:
CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
2015-2016 TE
FORWARDS
Patrick Sharp ($5.900m) / Jonathan Toews ($10.500m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Brandon Saad ($3.500m) / Andrew Shaw ($2.000m) / Patrick Kane ($10.500m)
Bryan Bickell ($4.000m) / Teuvo Teravainen ($0.894m) / Kris Versteeg ($2.200m)
Jeremy Morin ($0.800m) / Phillip Danault ($0.863m) / Ben Smith ($1.500m)
Brandon Mashinter ($0.563m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Brent Seabrook ($5.800m) / Duncan Keith ($5.538m)
Niklas Hjalmarsson ($4.100m) / Trevor Van Riemsdyk ($0.925m)
Klas Dahlbeck ($0.605m) / David Rundblad ($0.914m)
Stephen Johns ($0.800m) / Ville Pokka ($0.925m)
GOALTENDERS
Corey Crawford ($6.000m)
Antti Raanta ($0.750m)
BUYOUTS
Steve Montador ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $74,851,962; BONUSES: $1,650,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$5,851,962

[People talking about having to blow this team up need to look at the numbers

Ha, I was just doing this and came to the exact same conclusion. Assuming a $74 ml cap:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Patrick Sharp ($5.900m) / Jonathan Toews ($10.500m) / Patrick Kane ($10.500m)
Brandon Saad ($3.000m) / Teuvo Teravainen ($0.894m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Bryan Bickell ($4.000m) / Andrew Shaw ($2.000m) / Kris Versteeg ($2.200m)
Jeremy Morin ($0.800m) / Marcus Kruger ($1.800m) / Ben Smith ($1.500m)
Brandon Mashinter ($0.563m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Brent Seabrook ($5.800m) / Duncan Keith ($5.538m)
Niklas Hjalmarsson ($4.100m) / Trevor Van Riemsdyk ($0.925m)
Ville Pokka ($0.925m) / Klas Dahlbeck ($0.605m)
Stephen Johns ($0.800m) /
GOALTENDERS
Corey Crawford ($6.000m)
Antti Raanta ($0.750m)
BUYOUTS
Steve Montador ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $74,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $74,375,128; BONUSES: $1,550,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): -$375,128

If you trade Bickell and Versteeg you can resign Oduya and have a 23 man roster. Not quite the roster tear down of 2010-2011

 

[scarchelli]

Lose Richards, Oduya, Kruger and it basically works, not many rookies either:
CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
2015-2016 TE
FORWARDS
Patrick Sharp ($5.900m) / Jonathan Toews ($10.500m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)
Brandon Saad ($3.500m) / Andrew Shaw ($2.000m) / Patrick Kane ($10.500m)
Bryan Bickell ($4.000m) / Teuvo Teravainen ($0.894m) / Kris Versteeg ($2.200m)
Jeremy Morin ($0.800m) / Phillip Danault ($0.863m) / Ben Smith ($1.500m)
Brandon Mashinter ($0.563m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Brent Seabrook ($5.800m) / Duncan Keith ($5.538m)
Niklas Hjalmarsson ($4.100m) / Trevor Van Riemsdyk ($0.925m)
Klas Dahlbeck ($0.605m) / David Rundblad ($0.914m)
Stephen Johns ($0.800m) / Ville Pokka ($0.925m)
GOALTENDERS
Corey Crawford ($6.000m)
Antti Raanta ($0.750m)
BUYOUTS
Steve Montador ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2015-16)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $74,851,962; BONUSES: $1,650,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$5,851,962

[People talking about having to blow this team up need to look at the numbers

Excellent post. People are so certain the team will face severe salary dump for next year. Not sure why considering the cap will definitely go up, meaning they will likely need to get rid of ONE main guy, and by main i mean bickell.

 

[Illinihockey]

That said, its important the Hawks find out which kids are going to be in their plans this year. Can Morin replace Bickell? Can Johns replace Roszival? Can Pokka replace Oduya? Can Teuvo replace Richards. Would be nice for a kid or two to nail down a roster spot for next year, allieviate he need to sig vets.

 

[ColdSteel2]

I don't see any reason to close the door on a Richards resign at this point. We're still going to need a center.

 

[Illinihockey]

I don't see any reason to close the door on a Richards resign at this point. We're still going to need a center.

Probably not. Toews-Teuvo-Shaw-Kruger. Better to get rid of an old guy one year too early than 1 year too late (Handzus)

 

[ColdSteel2]

Probably not. Toews-Teuvo-Shaw-Kruger. Better to get rid of an old guy one year too early than 1 year too late (Handzus)

He's 34. Shaw should be playing wing and moving to center when an injury happens. We'll see how the season goes but I'd probably favor a Richards signing much more than an Oduya one. It's time we have some depth at center and it isn't coming from Rockford.