Prospect Info: Sabresprospects' new top 30 prospect ranking is out

[Ruckus007]

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

Less than 50:50 but somewhat greater than zero. If he progresses well this year, I think there'll be good reason to get him signed. Thought I doubt a third year at UM would be much of an issue.



Hmm, should we start the summer polls after prospect camp, or wait for Traverse City?

 

[DeadGhost]

Wow.

There were times last year when Schaller (30th) looked like he wouldn't be out of place if given the opportunity in a 4th line role with the big club. Future looks good!

 

[Jame]

Lemieux is way too high
Larsson is way way way too
Otherwise everyone seems to be ordered well

 

[Mit Yarrum]

Just imagine what a powerhouse this team would be if we hit on Armia and Grigorenko.

 

[gallagt01]

Lemieux is way too high
Larsson is way way way too
Otherwise everyone seems to be ordered well

Agreed on Larsson, disagreed on Lemieux. I think both play key roles for a contender.

 

[stokes84]

Agreed on Larsson, disagreed on Lemieux. I think both play key roles for a contender.

Everyone ahead of Larsson has top 6, top 4 potential. Larsson is close to a sure thing, but he's going to be a bottom 6 player. I would assume that was his reasoning.

 

[Jame]

Everyone ahead of Larsson has top 6, top 4 potential. Larsson is close to a sure thing, but he's going to be a bottom 6 player. I would assume that was his reasoning.

the guy struggling to score in the USHL has top 6 potential (Hurley)
the guy who put up .80 pts per game in the AHL doesn't

totally makes sense

It's like valuing a $2 scratch off ticket more than a $50 dollar bill....

And Carrier (a guy very high on my board, that I wanted to draft with our 1st 2nd rounder last year), if his development goes perfectly... then in 2 years, he'll be RIGHT where Larsson is today.

And this nonsense of Larsson being a "bottom 6" player is just that.... Larsson is on track to being a top 9 anywhere player...

This is the common flaw in ranking prospects... as good prospects, actually develop into good pros they fall down the rankings (and the new shiny toys get more hype)

Larsson is in my top 5. Development and NHL Projection matter... not just "hopes and dreams" potential.

 

[Chainshot]

the guy struggling to score in the USHL has top 6 potential (Hurley)
the guy who put up .80 pts per game in the AHL doesn't

totally makes sense

It's like valuing a $2 scratch off ticket more than a $50 dollar bill....

And Carrier (a guy very high on my board, that I wanted to draft with our 1st 2nd rounder last year), if his development goes perfectly... then in 2 years, he'll be RIGHT where Larsson is today.

And this nonsense of Larsson being a "bottom 6" player is just that.... Larsson is on track to being a top 9 anywhere player...

This is the common flaw in ranking prospects... as good prospects, actually develop into good pros they fall down the rankings (and the new shiny toys get more hype)

Larsson is in my top 5. Development and NHL Projection matter... not just "hopes and dreams" potential.

Agree on the ranking and re-ranking. New players displace the older ones as the older ones move through the system. Classically at HF, trade value goes way down when someone is playing pro for this very reason -- it's a bright and shiny junior dominant player that becomes a turd when he's a pro.

As for the article, KB does a nice job as always. I'm interested to know his reasoning on the placement for Bailey after what I thought was a very good OHL season.

 

[stokes84]

It seems to me that Hurley is our long term, Jankowski-esqu prospect, so I don't know that we should look too seriously at his USHL numbers (not that they were bad, he was about a ppg).

 

[Jame]

Agree on the ranking and re-ranking. New players displace the older ones as the older ones move through the system. Classically at HF, trade value goes way down when someone is playing pro for this very reason -- it's a bright and shiny junior dominant player that becomes a turd when he's a pro.

As for the article, KB does a nice job as always. I'm interested to know his reasoning on the placement for Bailey after what I thought was a very good OHL season.

most of Bakers rankings I agree with

In fact his top 25 is identical to mine as a group

And there are a couple groups of players that the separation is pretty unclear at this point with all relatively similar potential and development state (fasching, baptiste, carrier, etc). We have them in the same areas maybe slightly different orders

I just can't have Larsson behind all those guys... it's just wrong.
And I don't think Lemiuex is that high

I also graduated Pysyk... was the a mistake?

 

[Chainshot]

most of Bakers rankings I agree with

In fact his top 25 is identical to mine as a group

And there are a couple groups of players that the separation is pretty unclear at this point with all relatively similar potential and development state (fasching, baptiste, carrier, etc). We have them in the same areas maybe slightly different orders

I just can't have Larsson behind all those guys... it's just wrong.
And I don't think Lemiuex is that high

I also graduated Pysyk... was the a mistake?

Yeah, there are certainly layers to the pool. I really like Lemieux, from what I've seen and then the comments from Hawerchuk and various hockey people. I can understand having him in that spot, though that cluster is probably the toughest bunch to rank.

As for Larsson, you'll have to take that up with him. Maybe we can get him together for a few pops in Tampa next spring.

 

[Heraldic]

I think it's obvious that Hurley has potentially better toolset for top-6-role compared to Larsson. And it's equally obvious that Hurley has a ton of road to get himself as a NHL-caliber top-6-role compared to Larsson.

Larsson has shown he can produce at AHL-level, but it still remains to be seen how productive he will be in NHL when he has a proper role and line mates. Not every player can translate their production to NHL from AHL. Next two season will most likely show as a lot about Larsson's offensive potential. Fortunately he can still be a really useful player even if he never really gets his offensive game on track at NHL level.

 

[joshjull]

Possler is lowwwwww. I know he has the injury, but SIX slots behind Dan Catenacci?

I'm fine with the rest, as usual with KB. I have minor differences, like NZ and Risto flipped, Armia still ahead of Compher, Bhappteest and Ullmark ahead of Fasching...

... Damn, though. Imagine if, even only sayyyy... 6 of these guys ... pan out to max potential?

I think you and Bakes aren't that far apart on Armia.

His notes on Armia --> I maintain the position that Armia has all the talent in the world to occupy that No. 2 spot, but he won't earn a higher qualifier to his grade until he shows that he can consistently produce to the best of his abilities. His season trajectory, which was capped with a fabulous playoff run, reminds me of the way Girgensons finished his rookie year on the farm. A full cultural adjustment should see his stock skyrocket this season. -

 

[joshjull]

And on top of that ridiculous pile of prospects, they have 5 high picks in a stacked draft next year. Yeesh...

I know right. Giggity


And to those that answered my question about Compher thanks. Seems the majority feeling is he will stay at least for his junior year. We certainly don't need to rush him.

 

[Jame]

Yeah, there are certainly layers to the pool. I really like Lemieux, from what I've seen and then the comments from Hawerchuk and various hockey people. I can understand having him in that spot, though that cluster is probably the toughest bunch to rank.

As for Larsson, you'll have to take that up with him. Maybe we can get him together for a few pops in Tampa next spring.

lets do it

 

[joshjull]

most of Bakers rankings I agree with

In fact his top 25 is identical to mine as a group

And there are a couple groups of players that the separation is pretty unclear at this point with all relatively similar potential and development state (fasching, baptiste, carrier, etc). We have them in the same areas maybe slightly different orders

I just can't have Larsson behind all those guys... it's just wrong.
And I don't think Lemiuex is that high

I also graduated Pysyk... was the a mistake?

Bakes was using 24 years old and I think 70gms to graduate guys. At least thats what he listed (70gms) for Girgs graduating. Pysyk is right there with 63gms and would have graduated had he not been sent for that development stint last year.

 

[Luceni]

I wousld trade 2 firsts for the top pick. We take the best player of the next draft then the rebuilding should be over. Add some free agents and vets to this player-pool then.

 

[haseoke39]

I wousld trade 2 firsts for the top pick. We take the best player of the next draft then the rebuilding should be over. Add some free agents and vets to this player-pool then.

Unless they're picks #2 and #5 or so, I don't think you have a chance. Probably not even then, but that's what it would take to get a team listening.

 

[Djp]

Eric Cornel is our 18th best prospect.

Before getting to a guy some had as a first rounder in this draft.

...

I'm sure Edmonton had this same depth less than two years into their rebuild. That must be why people want to compare ours to theirs so badly lol.

Who had Cornel as a 1st round prospect if I am understanding you correctly?

Edmonton did not. Edmonton had high 1st round picks but they did not have nowhere near what Buffal has had in terms of high draft picks.

2012 2 high 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2013 2 high 1st, 3 2nds, 1 3rd
2014 1 high 1st, 4 2nds, 1 3rd. ( in 5 of last 10 drafts 61 was a 2nd so I am counting it as such)
2015 3 1st, 2 2nds

Buffalo accumulated 10 extra high pics.

Through trade they acquired Hackett, Larsson, Fasching, Carrier

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

I thnk Compher turns pro 75% after this year 25% after junior year
Fasching turns pro 95% after this year 5% after junior year

I think the team also will be trying to get Florentino to turn pro after this year because they lack Dmen depth at AHL level

They want Hurley and Petersen to turn pro after their sophomore year. Both can pull the 30 day UFA stunt after their junior year.

They expect Possler in 2 yrs for 16/17 season

Bakes was using 24 years old and I think 70gms to graduate guys. At least thats what he listed (70gms) for Girgs graduating. Pysyk is right there with 63gms and would have graduated had he not been sent for that development stint last year.

Foligno seemed to have graduated....isn't he 23???

 

[TossinSauce]

Unless they're picks #2 and #5 or so, I don't think you have a chance. Probably not even then, but that's what it would take to get a team listening.

I wouldn't make that trade if I had 2 and 5. Eichel and another player in the top 5 be it Kylington etc. would be a fantasy draft.

 

[joshjull]

Who had Cornel as a 1st round prospect if I am understanding you correctly?

Edmonton did not. Edmonton had high 1st round picks but they did not have nowhere near what Buffal has had in terms of high draft picks.

2012 2 high 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2013 2 high 1st, 3 2nds, 1 3rd
2014 1 high 1st, 4 2nds, 1 3rd. ( in 5 of last 10 drafts 61 was a 2nd so I am counting it as such)
2015 3 1st, 2 2nds

Buffalo accumulated 10 extra high pics.

Through trade they acquired Hackett, Larsson, Fasching, Carrier





I thnk Compher turns pro 75% after this year 25% after junior year
Fasching turns pro 95% after this year 5% after junior year

I think the team also will be trying to get Florentino to turn pro after this year because they lack Dmen depth at AHL level

They want Hurley and Petersen to turn pro after their sophomore year. Both can pull the 30 day UFA stunt after their junior year.

They expect Possler in 2 yrs for 16/17 season



Foligno seemed to have graduated....isn't he 23???

He's 22 (until Aug.10th) but he's played 74 games in the NHL. I believe its 23yrs old OR 70gms to graduate.

 

[joshjull]

Less than 50:50 but somewhat greater than zero. If he progresses well this year, I think there'll be good reason to get him signed. Thought I doubt a third year at UM would be much of an issue.



Hmm, should we start the summer polls after prospect camp, or wait for Traverse City?

I would say after prospect camp.

 

[jBuds]

I think you and Bakes aren't that far apart on Armia.

His notes on Armia --> I maintain the position that Armia has all the talent in the world to occupy that No. 2 spot, but he won't earn a higher qualifier to his grade until he shows that he can consistently produce to the best of his abilities. His season trajectory, which was capped with a fabulous playoff run, reminds me of the way Girgensons finished his rookie year on the farm. A full cultural adjustment should see his stock skyrocket this season. -

Saw that after I posted. A couple of his notes clarified some qualms I had.

 

[jBuds]

With a list this deep, there are sure to be many discrepancies amongst the die hards et al

 

[dire wolf]

I would say after prospect camp.

For whoever decides to start the polling, I would push for the "alternate" polling method that we experimented with last fall after the normal poll, where everyone just submitted their complete rankings. If nobody remembers what I'm talking about, I can dig out the old thread.