Prospect Info: Sabresprospects' new top 30 prospect ranking is out

[joshjull]

http://www.sabresprospects.com/2014/07/buffalo-sabres-summer-2014-prospect.html




The top 30

1 - REINHART, Sam
2 - RISTOLAINEN, Rasmus
3 - ZADOROV, Nikita
4 - GRIGORENKO, Mikhail
5 - COMPHER, JT
6 - ARMIA, Joel
7 - PYSYK, Mark
8 - MCCABE, Jake
9 - LEMIEUX, Brendan
10 - FASCHING, Hudson
11 - ULLMARK, Linus
12 - BAPTISTE, Nick
13 - CARRIER, William
14 - HURLEY, Connor
15 - LARSSON, Johan
16 - BAILEY, Justin
17 - CATENACCI, Dan
18 - CORNEL, Eric
19 - JOHANSSON, Jonas
20 - KARABACEK, Vaclav
21 - DESLAURIERS, Nicolas
22 - LIEUWEN, Nathan
23 - POSSLER, Gustav
24 - PETERSEN, Cal
25 - KEA, Justin
26 - MAKAROV, Andrey
27 - MARTIN, Brycen
28 - MALONE, Sean
29 - FLORENTINO, Anthony
30 - SCHALLER, Tim

Couple of notes from the article.

1) The first two prospects were easy to rank sans formula. The fun started from there, including a serious debate about Compher vs. Grigorenko. I feel that Compher is a "sure thing" set to make an impact at the 2015 WJC and beyond, but Grigorenko has been hitting it hard this offseason. The work should see him inch closer to his higher-end potential.

2) I maintain the position that Armia has all the talent in the world to occupy that No. 2 spot, but he won't earn a higher qualifier to his grade until he shows that he can consistently produce to the best of his abilities. His season trajectory, which was capped with a fabulous playoff run, reminds me of the way Girgensons finished his rookie year on the farm. A full cultural adjustment should see his stock skyrocket this season. -

There are more of Bakes' notes (13 total) on the rankings and a breakdown on each prospect. Its an excellent read. Enjoy!

Click to read more...

 

[EichHart]

Solid list. I see our top 3 in Reinhart, Zads, and Risto as locks. Between 4-8 can be mixed around all over IMO. Our depth is insane! Going to be so much fun to watch all these guys progress next year. Obviously some won't make it, but we have so many solid prospects it will be interesting to see who gets traded for roster guys when we are ready to contend.

 

[start winnin]

Man that pool is deep lol. Bakes is really high on Compher, but his argument is sound.

 

[Bps21*]

Eric Cornel is our 18th best prospect.

To put that in perspective...you can fill this much of a roster out solely with qualified prospects:

Lemieux-Reinhart-Armia
Carrier-Grigorenko-Fasching
Larsson-Compher-Baptiste
Catenacci-Hurley-Bailey

Ristolainen-Zadorov
Pysyk-McCabe

Ullmark

...

Before getting to a guy some had as a first rounder in this draft.

...

I'm sure Edmonton had this same depth less than two years into their rebuild. That must be why people want to compare ours to theirs so badly lol.

 

[ZeroPT*]

is the cut off 65 games?

I think Larsson is a bit low and that Bailey is a bit high but apart from that it's very good

 

[joshjull]

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

 

[ozpensfan]

thought Fasching would be higher - heard a few things that he may be the steal on his draft group. Interesting times ahead thats for sure. meh i could be wrong. Eh bugger it - list looks good.

 

[Zman5778]

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

Strictly IMO, but I think he plays 3 years at Michigan like McCabe did for Wisky.

Fasching might come out after this year, if rumblings about his family's money situation have any truth to them though.....

 

[Paxon]

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

1:3 maybe?

 

[SamuraiArt]

Is Hackett excluded from this list due to age/games played? I wouldn't rank him too highly on this list but it struck me as odd that he was missing.

 

[DJN21]

wow..I was having a bad day at work then I saw this...imagine 1 year from now....

 

[Heraldic]

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

I think the odds are extremely high. After the upcoming season Grigorenko, Larsson and Varone all lose their waiver exemption, leaving the centrum of Rochester pretty empty. Kea or Schaller (who also loses exemption?) are not the likely options for top-6-centers there. Therefore Compher would most likely have the number one center spot from Rochester after next season. Of course this is under the assumption that Compher's development continues properly.

 

[DJN21]

I think the odds are extremely high. After the upcoming season Grigorenko, Larsson and Varone all lose their waiver exemption, leaving the centrum of Rochester pretty empty. Kea or Schaller (who also loses exemption?) are not the likely options for top-6-centers there. Therefore Compher would most likely have the number one center spot from Rochester after next season. Of course this is under the assumption that Compher's development continues properly.

this, and he will fan fav himself onto the team in a call up regardless of whether hes ready or not...

 

[dotcommunism]

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

I think a lot of it depends on what sort of season he has. Even then it's hard to say, though. If he puts together a great season, I'd say there's a good chance, but no guarantee. T.J. Oshie spent 3 years at North Dakota and he scored 52 points in 43 games his sophomore year.

Is Hackett excluded from this list due to age/games played? I wouldn't rank him too highly on this list but it struck me as odd that he was missing.

Tbh, even if he qualifies I can't see rating Hackett ahead of any of Lieuwen, Makarov, Ullmark, Petersen or Johansson. Based on their placement, Hackett not cracking the top 30 wouldn't surprise me

I think the odds are extremely high. After the upcoming season Grigorenko, Larsson and Varone all lose their waiver exemption, leaving the centrum of Rochester pretty empty. Kea or Schaller (who also loses exemption?) are not the likely options for top-6-centers there. Therefore Compher would most likely have the number one center spot from Rochester after next season. Of course this is under the assumption that Compher's development continues properly.

Schaller's got three seasons of waiver exemption, since he signed at 23. So he'll retain his exemption for the 2015-2016 season, unless he plays 60 NHL games this coming season (which I'd estimate at about a 0% chance of happening)

 

[joshjull]

Is Hackett excluded from this list due to age/games played? I wouldn't rank him too highly on this list but it struck me as odd that he was missing.

His age. Bakes rates the 18-23 year olds in our system and Hackett is 24. It's the same reason Ruhwedel is not included.

 

[Bps21*]

Is there a reason everyone can't spell the name Baker? is it a nickname or something?

 

[sabrebuild]

It's nuts that the Sabres have their fourth line, at worst, covered already, except for injury, with

Deslauriers, Larsson, Schaller

Players who could feasibly perform these roles this year, no question.

That leaves 9 spots, for 18 well respected prospects left in the system, 3 first rounders to come, and at least three current Sabres, Girgs, Moulson, and one of Ennis/Hodgson/Stafford/Stewart.

Think about that. The Sabres could have a 50% failure rate for their current prospect pool, and still have to ship 4-6 players out in trades or slow cook them in Rochester just because they have so much quality depth.

 

[sabrebuild]

If for fun we assume Reinhart is a top six guy... A fourth line that could already be set or easily filled, and Girgs, Moulson, and Hodgson at forward, then competition will be great. 5 spots for 19 guys. One of whom will be top 5, plus two first by this time next year.

The Sabres could have a 75% failure rate on their remainging forward prospects and still fill out their roster admirably with no free agents or trades eventually. I'm gonna sit in a corner and breathe with a brown paper bag.

 

[Bps21*]

I'd write the name Hodgson in pencil if I were you.

 

[SabreOil]

...

I'm sure Edmonton had this same depth less than two years into their rebuild. That must be why people want to compare ours to theirs so badly lol.

No they never were this deep. Trust me. Every year it was the 1st overall pick and then some extremely questionable picks that no one understood for the rest of the draft(except Klefbom).

 

[sabrebuild]

I'd write the name Hodgson in pencil if I were you.

Absolutely, just picked one to get a guy in there. Personally I think Stewart fits better for his projected role than Hodgson if he can be consistent... Which is a big if. Pick anyone of the four vets that I listed and switch Hodgson, or just keep the one that performs down the line, idc. Oodles of options.

 

[Wisent42]

Looks like we've got quite the logjam coming up. In a couple of years we're gonna have to make some tough decisions. Who stays and who gets traded out? It's a luxury problem, but I'm going to hate it because I like every player on that list. I'm higher on some than others of course, but this is one of the reasons I would make a terrible GM - I like our own prospects to much and want to keep them all.

 

[jBuds]

Possler is lowwwwww. I know he has the injury, but SIX slots behind Dan Catenacci?

I'm fine with the rest, as usual with KB. I have minor differences, like NZ and Risto flipped, Armia still ahead of Compher, Bhappteest and Ullmark ahead of Fasching...

... Damn, though. Imagine if, even only sayyyy... 6 of these guys ... pan out to max potential?

 

[jBuds]

What are the odds Compher goes pro after his sophomore season?

I don't see it, but I expect him to come after his junior season. I like Heraldic's reasoning, but I expect things to continue to change up. Wouldn't Baptiste be in line to fill a role in Rochester after next season?

 

[NEcoli]

And on top of that ridiculous pile of prospects, they have 5 high picks in a stacked draft next year. Yeesh...