Sabres shouldn't give up on Hodgson

[stokes84]

This is not how buy-outs work. Players can only be bought out in June (or following arbitration hearings).

OK, so they have 4 months to figure out what to do with him. Even more interesting.

 

[aaronr28]

This entire Hodgson conversation boggles my brain. Here it is, we've got a kid that we know from the past has talent and is capable of producing if given talent to work with (HPV line). But his struggles have snowballed under a coach who seems incapable of reaching him. If we move him, he could potentially blossom in a new system and make us look really foolish, (especially if we struggle to score or have trouble finding scoring wingers to fill out the roster). If we keep him, we run the risk of him never correcting course, leaving us stuck w/ a bad contract.

I think ultimately, you have to keep him and see if a new coach and new system next year triggers a return to form. We know what it looks like when a player has checked out (see Leino, Ville). Idk about you guys, but I personally don't see that in Cody yet. I see a round peg in a square hole, a player trying to find his way in a bad system that he can't make sense of. I said this after we acquired him, but long-term, I see Coho becoming the Patrick Sharp of our rebuild.

the problem for me is that even when he was productive offensively, his defensive game was generally a disaster. Maybe that's part of why he's not endearing himself to Nolan now, but when you combine that with how much he is struggling to contribute anything at all this year AND his contract, it suggests that cutting the cord now may not be such a bad idea.

Just strange that he has fallen this far this fast. I'm optimistic a new coach would get a lot more out of him, but still not sure he'll ever come close to being the guy we thought he would be.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I think Hodgson just doesn't care this year. Being on a bad team, bad line and being used poorly hasn't given him much of an incentive to try harder. Yes, that's all on him and doesn't exactly display maturity.

However, I do think that if we get some more playmakers and become a better team, he will rise to the level of players around him and begin to produce again.

He will always be a liability defensively though, so his long term future is probably at wing. Best case scenario is a PP producing 2nd/3rd line LW who can put up 20-20 years.

 

[Karate Johnson*]

I don't know why Murray would be patient with one of Darcys biggest mistakes.

Might as well just cut the cord on anyone he's not in love with that he inherited from Regier.

 

[SoFFacet]

I think that objectively, there is a decent player still in there somewhere. But I question whether even that player is the type of player TM will find useful. Being neither large nor fast, he is not a TM winger. He has the vision and smarts to be a TM center, but given the other players expected to be on the team, he's boxed into being a misfit 3C.

 

[Karate Johnson*]

I think that objectively, there is a decent player still in there somewhere. But I question whether even that player is the type of player TM will find useful. Being neither large nor fast, he is not a TM winger. He has the vision and smarts to be a TM center, but given the other players expected to be on the team, he's boxed into being a misfit 3C.

With McEichel, Girgs, And Reinhart I don't see him fitting anywhere.

Regier should trade for him, he owes us.

 

[Zip15]

Well with Stafford moved out and Kane done for the year a top 9 spot just opened up. We'll see what Hodgson does with it.

Haha, not under Ted Nolan. Hodgson was tied for the lead in SOG (3) the other night. He played 6:04. The players with whom he was tied all played over 19 minutes. Also, zero PP time. I am convinced that Hodgson won't see much PP time even when Stewart is traded. More likely, Ted will put Grigorenko out there (or another callup). A cynic might start thinking that Ted is trying to depress Hodgson's point totals as much as possible to maximize the case for buying him out this summer. I can't imagine Ted wants a late-season hot streak that may give the organization some hope that he'll be back to the offensive player he was before this season.

 

[Eram]

I think Hodgson just doesn't care this year. Being on a bad team, bad line and being used poorly hasn't given him much of an incentive to try harder. Yes, that's all on him and doesn't exactly display maturity.

However, I do think that if we get some more playmakers and become a better team, he will rise to the level of players around him and begin to produce again.

He will always be a liability defensively though, so his long term future is probably at wing. Best case scenario is a PP producing 2nd/3rd line LW who can put up 20-20 years.

This this this. Every single fan and management has written off this season as a loss. The team itself is historically bad, and pretty much everyone agrees CoHo needs strong supporting players to be successful. Nolan's doing a decent job keeping the place from burning down but he's by no means a top 20 coach in the league.

CoHos been at least a 20g+20a player for the past 3 seasons, and 1 bad season with a ton of contributing factors people want to get rid of him now? What's the difference in waiting a year when the team isn't a laughingstock? I wouldn't call him my favorite player by any means, but who are you planning on filling his spot with next season? You can probably count the number of legit top 9 UFA forwards on two hands, unless the plan is to gift roster spots to youth like our buddies in Edmonton.

Also: why trade him now? His value is at an all time low. Zero risk in giving him another go instead of minimizing your return on an asset.

 

[Matt Ress]

This this this. Every single fan and management has written off this season as a loss. The team itself is historically bad, and pretty much everyone agrees CoHo needs strong supporting players to be successful. Nolan's doing a decent job keeping the place from burning down

Ted Nolan is the Head Coach of one of the worst teams in the history of the NHL.

 

[Eram]

Ted Nolan is the Head Coach of one of the worst teams in the history of the NHL.

Haha yes, I was more so referring to keeping players from asking to be traded. I'm sure CoHo is pretty miserable but AFAIK he or any other Sabre haven't asked out yet. I think he's been doing OK enough as a lame duck.

 

[TehDoak]

So, let's take a step back from Hodgson for a second


2011-12 Vancouver Canucks NHL 63 16 17 33 8 8 -- -- -- -- --
2011-12 Buffalo Sabres NHL 20 3 5 8 2 -7 -- -- -- -- --
2012-13 Buffalo Sabres NHL 48 15 19 34 20 -4 -- -- -- -- --
2013-14 Buffalo Sabres NHL 72 20 24 44 20 -26 -- -- -- -- --
2014-15 Buffalo Sabres NHL 53 2 6 8 6 -21

So, here is what we know:

1) During his 11-12 Canucks run, he was given sheltered offensive zone starts. He produced, but not a ton.
2) When he was put between Vanek/Pomninville, he was our 2nd leading scorer, behind Vanek who was over a PPG.
3) Last year, he got solid offensize zone starts and lead our team in scoring, just narrowly over ennis, but in less games.

So, what has happened this year?

-Less Power play time. Last year he received 210 minutes of PP time in 72 games (2.9 minutes per game) This year he has received 72 minuntes in 53 games (1.4 minutes/game)
-Less quality line mates. Last year, he played with Stafford/Moulson the most. This year, he's played with Foligino/Stewart the most.
-Overall lack of scoring: Buffalo has scored 99 goals in 57 games (1.73 GPG). Last year, they scored 150 in 82 games (1.82)
-Less overall ice time: Last year he average 18:08 TOI. This year, he's at 13:15 TOI. Sure, his G/60 and A/60 have dropped as well.

Overall, Cody's had a bad year by every conceivable metric. But, I think in reinforces a few things

A) Hodgson is a secondary player, not a primary player. He can't create offense by himself. It was true last year, it was true the year before. And its true now.
B) Hodsgon is not a two way player. While he's not a total tire fire in his own zone, he just will never be a shutdown guy

So, where does that leave us?

Unfortunately for Hodgson, since he's a secondary scoring winger on the left side, he's really a bit on the outs now that we've acquired Kane. Basically, him and Moulson will be filling the same role long term.

Kane: All situations LW
Moulson/Hodgson - Secondary scoring
Foligno: Defensive/checking LW

If we can slot him back to secondary center there is a hole there. But, it also has the potential to hold back Grigerenko and Reinhart on next years squad.

Conclusion:

While I think Hodgson WILL be much improved under a new coach, the issue is really a numbers game at this point.

So, what do we do:

A) Buyout: Hodgson is owned 19 million over the next 4 years. A buyout would be 1/3 of that spread over 8 years, so, roughly, 800k a year for the next 8 years. Manageable, sure, but far from idea, especially when you consider that the team plans to be contending down the line.

B) Trade. Unfortunately, due to his struggles this year, his value is going to be low. However, I'd imagine given his age and circumstances, someone may be willing to take him on. We could retain salary, lets say, 15-20% for the life of the contract to make a deal. The other option would obviously do a "change of scenery" deal where we take on a "meh" contract in return.

C) Keep. This is an option as well, though, if for some reason things DON'T improve next year, he's going to go from "hard" to trade to "near impossible" . A buyout next year is 1.66 million a year over 6 years, which is a much worse than the buyout this year. The hope would be he would improve under a new coach/better players around him enough that you would be able to move him to make room for younger players.

 

[Ruckus007]

Something that I didn't notice until this weekend.

'12-'13: 114 shots in 48 games
'13-'14: 182 shots in 72 games
'14-'15: 72 shots in 53 games


We can go around and around about what and why and what's Hodgson's responsibility and Nolan's role etc.. I know he's part of the problem in terms of possession and SOG, but that's still a shot per game less this year.

 

[SatanwasaSlovak]

The problem is, Cody is too bad defensively and to be centering a top-line, and needs talented players around him to produce. So the problem is that we don't have talented players that can make Cody produce, there isn't anyone good enough on the roster like Vanek or Pominville. And still, neither one of those two could cover up the lack of defensive-skills Cody has.

 

[mikemcburn]

The problem is, Cody is too bad defensively and to be centering a top-line, and needs talented players around him to produce. So the problem is that we don't have talented players that can make Cody produce, there isn't anyone good enough on the roster like Vanek or Pominville. And still, neither one of those two could cover up the lack of defensive-skills Cody has.

Stewart. This is the Hodgson thread and you're describing Stewart's defensive woes.

But seriously, to be fair, Hodgson is not nearly the defensive liability he was, and he's actually become a more routinely physical player under Nolan's tutoring (aka: stick).

When I think about how Hodgson was originally scouted not merely for his hockey sense and playmaking talents, but also for his solid two-way play... how it is he didn't look defensively dismal at all when put to PK duty under Rolston... how it is he's "magically" become more sound in recent months....

Well, I just gotta wonder...

If he'd stayed in Vancouver and so been "sheltered" (even that's a joke, I mean, what's so fricken unusual about rookies being "sheltered" behind proven top tier producers?) the balance of that season and into the next.... coached into actually playing and continuing to develop his two-way game at the NHL level...

Gee, he'd be on the verge of going the Henrik Sedin route - another guy once labeled soft and slow, but who has the same strong work ethic as Hodgson and worked it until his strength and speed caught up with his talents...

 

[TehDoak]

Something that I didn't notice until this weekend.

'12-'13: 114 shots in 48 games
'13-'14: 182 shots in 72 games
'14-'15: 72 shots in 53 games


We can go around and around about what and why and what's Hodgson's responsibility and Nolan's role etc.. I know he's part of the problem in terms of possession and SOG, but that's still a shot per game less this year.

I think his uptick in shots was his move to the wing last year. Note he also is playing 1/2 of the PP time and 30% less overall TOI.

 

[Chad Thundercock]

I think keeping Hodgson is the only play, or try dangling him on waivers and hope. I don't think putting him in Rochester would do much damage that hasn't been done already with this garbage team.

Is this team going to be up against the cap in the next 2 seasons? I doubt it. So, I don't understand eating cap for many years in the future.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I don't know why people are being so hard on Hodgson. He is just following orders. He should get promoted for his hard work.

 

[mikemcburn]

I think his uptick in shots was his move to the wing last year. Note he also is playing 1/2 of the PP time and 30% less overall TOI.

I'm not sure your theory holds. Actually, it's plausibly the reverse.

According to the stats posted, Hodgson's shots per game have actually decreased each of the last two years. Meaning that there was no "uptick" when he was moved to wing.

'12-'13: 114 shots in 48 games ==> 2.52 /game
'13-'14: 182 shots in 72 games ==> 2.35 /game
'14-'15: 72 shots in 53 games ==> 1.35 /game

Of course, we haven't broken this down into minutes played, so who knows. But on the surface I'd guess that the (late in season) move to wing either had zero affect or a negative affect (not taking into acct who he was playing with, yadda, yadda).

Also, noting that he's played x% of PP time, etc. this season is possibly a non-starter in analyzing what's up. The team as a whole struggled that first stretch of the season while Hodgson was seeing PP time. He hasn't had a sniff in a couple months I think? Meaning while his total PP time averages out to 2nd unit per game, really he hasn't had any PP time since the team as a whole began learning how to score at ES or PP

 

[Ruckus007]

I think his uptick in shots was his move to the wing last year. Note he also is playing 1/2 of the PP time and 30% less overall TOI.

Eh, 2.38 shots per game in '12-'13, 2.52 shots per game in '13-'14. Maybe moving to the wing helped in shots but not significantly. Regardless, it's undeniable that he's shooting a lot less this year. I don't know if it's cause or effect, I was just surprised by how dramatic the drop.

 

[mikemcburn]

Eh, 2.38 shots per game in '12-'13, 2.52 shots per game in '13-'14. Maybe moving to the wing helped in shots but not significantly. Regardless, it's undeniable that he's shooting a lot less this year. I don't know if it's cause or effect, I was just surprised by how dramatic the drop.

By your own calcs (which match mine), the only plausible effect of his move to wing was actually a DECREASE in avg. shots per game. Meaning it clearly did not help. And given what's happened this year while he's played mainly on the wing and the shots have continued to drop, it's arguable that the wing thingy tinkering has actually hurt his scoring chances.

Up in the air as to if it's even a relative stat too - the wing move was a very late season thing and with the constant line juggling.... yeah, well, it's probably a non-starter.

EDIT: ps, I think you got your shots/game and years in the reverse?

EDIT #2: ps, Nope, it was me who had them in reverse, oops!

 

[Sabretooth]

Eh, 2.38 shots per game in '12-'13, 2.52 shots per game in '13-'14. Maybe moving to the wing helped in shots but not significantly. Regardless, it's undeniable that he's shooting a lot less this year. I don't know if it's cause or effect, I was just surprised by how dramatic the drop.

I'd rather see shots/60 than shots/game. The data you provided is very misleading when its known how much less hodgson is actually playing this year at both EV and PP.

Regardless, Hodgson's shooting percentage is also down to 2.8% this year. Last year he had 11%, and the year before that 13.2%. He should probably have at least 5 or 6 more goals this year even on the smaller number of shots he's taken with a more normal shooting percentage for him, which would put him right around moulson, stewart, or stafford in goals scored for the sabres this year. If I had to guess, I'd say that the drop in overall shooting percentage is a small part just being snakebit (he's had a lot of good chances and posts that just didn't convert) and a large part not getting the PP opportunities. If he had 8 goals (and some more assists along with them), this wouldn't be nearly the same conversation about him this year.

 

[Gabrielor]

If Murray is serious about installing his mold of a team as early as next year with expectations for some success, Hodgson won't be here.

 

[Paxon]

If Murray is serious about installing his mold of a team as early as next year with expectations for some success, Hodgson won't be here.

You could say the same about Moulson or Ennis. None of those guys are heavy wingers. The only difference (in relation to the subject) is that Hodgson has been much worse than those other two.

 

[Ruckus007]

I'd rather see shots/60 than shots/game. The data you provided is very misleading when its known how much less hodgson is actually playing this year at both EV and PP.

'12-'13 - 7.74 shots per 60 min
'13-'14 - 8.36 shots per 60 min
'14-'15 - 6.15 shots per 60 min

...assuming I converted it correctly. Still down, obviously. Significant?

Regardless, Hodgson's shooting percentage is also down to 2.8% this year. Last year he had 11%, and the year before that 13.2%. He should probably have at least 5 or 6 more goals this year even on the smaller number of shots he's taken with a more normal shooting percentage for him, which would put him right around moulson, stewart, or stafford in goals scored for the sabres this year. If I had to guess, I'd say that the drop in overall shooting percentage is a small part just being snakebit (he's had a lot of good chances and posts that just didn't convert) and a large part not getting the PP opportunities. If he had 8 goals (and some more assists along with them), this wouldn't be nearly the same conversation about him this year.

That's basically where I came down on this. No skill player can really sustain a shooting percentage that low so I do think there's a luck factor involved but I was just surprised how low his shot number was this season, didn't want to comment beyond finding that worth posting.

 

[Jeremy2020]

I find it hard to judge any player on this roster playing poorly this season.