Sabres shouldn't give up on Hodgson

[wunderpanda]

http://leftwinglock.com/line-combin.../?team=buffalo-sabres&strength=EV&gametype=10

Not the most comprehensive detailing, just frequency of linemates. Hodgson has been with Stafford or Stewart often, both are producing slightly below career averages but not far off at all. CoHo has been given a decent linemate, was given PP time earlier in the season, he just is not producing regardless of linemates.

 

[mikemcburn]

http://leftwinglock.com/line-combin.../?team=buffalo-sabres&strength=EV&gametype=10

Not the most comprehensive detailing, just frequency of linemates, Hodgson has been with Stafford or Stewart often, both are producing slightly below career averages but not far off at all. CoHo has been given a decent linemate, was given PP time earlier in the season, he just is not producing regardless of linemates.

You are right, that is not the most comprehensive detailing. Only the frequency of line combo and only during the last 10 games (as per your link/selection).

I'm not sure why you use that recent 10 game data to make reflections on the whole of the season (ie: re: PP time earlier on and Stafford/Stewart producing closer to career averages). But anyway, that link actually shows that in the last 10 games -

While Hodgson's most common linemates have been Stafford (60.66%) and Stewart (32.45%), as you flagged, Stewart's have been Girgensens (52.30%) and Ennis (31.39%), and Staffords have been Hodgson (42.82%) and Flynn (29.49%).

What that link/those combo percentages don't flag is that over the same period -

Stewart avg 17:43 TOI, 4g 5a 9pts (-10)
Stafford avg 14:54 TOI, 2g 1a 3pts (-3) (note: both goals w 1st assist to Hodgson)
Hodgson avg 11:04 TOI, 0g 2a 2pts (-1)

During this period that Stewart has been being showcased (aka: given every possible opportunity to produce), his productivity has naturally ballooned - 9 pts in 10 games when he only had 11 pts in the 41 games before that. Meanwhile, Stafford has entirely fallen off the last 10 games, producing only 3 points despite averaging essentially 15minutes per game and routinely gift-wrapped PP opportunity.

I don't think it's reasonable to compare Hodgson's productivity as a dog-house grinder averaging 11:04 without any PP opportunity and commonly benched for the 3rd, to either Stewart or Stafford. But then I also don't think it's reasonable to compare Stewart's recent showcasing balloon stretch to Hodgson and Stafford - neither of whom have been put in the same situation recently to be successful.

All in, it's not surprising that a guy averaging 17:43 with every offensive opportunity possible including two quality linemates has produced more others. It's also not surprising that a guy averaging 6 minutes less in a 4th line grinder role entirely unsuited to his game, is actually producing as you'd expect of a 4th line grinder.

It is remarkable that Stafford has managed to fall totally off production lately and produce a measly 1 extra point (an assist) more than Hodgson despite the extra 5 minutes of ice time per game on average and still getting gift-wrapped PP opportunity.

 

[wunderpanda]

You can change the parameters to show full season, special teams or any number of games in the dropdowns. I'm not disputing Hodgson has played fewer minutes or that certain players are showcased, just pointing out he isn't on the ice with Ellis or McCormick or Kaleta, he has had actual hockey players on his line.

 

[mikemcburn]

You can change the parameters to show full season, special teams or any number of games in the dropdowns. I'm not disputing Hodgson has played fewer minutes or that certain players are showcased, just pointing out he isn't on the ice with Ellis or McCormick or Kaleta, he has had actual hockey players on his line.

Going to last year, it's been proven (by the players themselves) that Stewart & Hodgson are not the best click. That can't be helped. Doesn't say anything about either player.

It's also been demonstrated that Hodgson&Stafford work way better with Hodgson at center and able to put the 2nd trick of his 2-trick pony talents to work - playmaking.

For stretch you've flagged, Hodgson&Stafford have been centered by Flynn who, for all of his admirable heart, is just not a playmaker. Which may go toward explaining how it is Stafford has a measly 3pts to account for this time together, while Hodgson has had a measly 2pts floundering on the other wing. Neither have a center who can dish the puck or, as we saw last night when Flynn snagged a nifty outlet from Hodgson for a breakway, has the sniper's closing shot.

Anyway, guess I don't understand what you're trying to say other than what is pretty well hashed out - Hodgson, like most of the guys, started off having a dismal year and hasn't been able to produce as a top six guy the last couple months while being deployed as a 4th line grinder on a very short leash.

 

[wunderpanda]

All I am saying is Hodgson has been given a quality linemate or 2 every game. His lack of minutes is because he wasn't producing, not the other way around. When he starts producing his minutes will increase.

 

[pigpen65]

Hodgson is terrible. He was before this year. No desire.

 

[SamuraiArt]

Hodgson, like most of the guys, started off having a dismal year and hasn't been able to produce as a top six guy the last couple months while being deployed as a 4th line grinder on a very short leash.

I completely agree with your assessment of Hodgson's lack of production being (at least partly) based on being mired in the 3/4th line with unskilled team mates.

But your 4th line grinder comment got me thinking about John Scott - did anyone else know that Scott has the same amount of goals, and only 5 less assists than Hodgson? Who would've predicted that last year?

 

[stokes84]

Scratched again.

 

[mikemcburn]

Trade him. Please.

 

[sba]

Not worried, he'll bounce back when we have a real coach.

 

[pigpen65]

Not worried, he'll bounce back when we have a real coach.

Bounce back to what? He's never been good.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Bounce back to what? He's never been good.

You a canucks fan come trolling?

 

[Sean McG]

One thing that bugs the hell out of me RE: Hodgson, is that at the end of last season, he played at LW with Girgensons as his center for around 9-10 games, and I believe they were also playing with Torrey Mitchell, forming a really solid line.. Cody looked fine at wing, and had some nice chemistry with Girgs. He even carried that onto the Canadian team for the Worlds where he stayed at wing and continued to put up some points.

So... why hasn't that been experimented with this season? I'm positive they've (Hodgson & Girgensons) never seen the ice as linemates the entire year. I understand the whole "earn you spot" deal, but for Nolan to claim he's up at night thinking of ways for Hodgson to get going, and yet hasn't reunited that duo, kinda blows my mind.

 

[sabrebuild]

One thing that bugs the hell out of me RE: Hodgson, is that at the end of last season, he played at LW with Girgensons as his center for around 9-10 games, and I believe they were also playing with Torrey Mitchell, forming a really solid line.. Cody looked fine at wing, and had some nice chemistry with Girgs. He even carried that onto the Canadian team for the Worlds where he stayed at wing and continued to put up some points.

So... why hasn't that been experimented with this season? I'm positive they've (Hodgson & Girgensons) never seen the ice as linemates the entire year. I understand the whole "earn you spot" deal, but for Nolan to claim he's up at night thinking of ways for Hodgson to get going, and yet hasn't reunited that duo, kinda blows my mind.

I think they played together sparingly early in the season, but then Hodgson basically didn't give a ******* for 15-20 games and effectively was done. He will be fine on the wing with a good center, but he didn't play in a way to deserve to play with Girgs and he is the only center that is good on this team. I bet he rebounds next year with McEichel or hopefully ROR or Vermette level vets.

 

[wunderpanda]

Not worried, he'll bounce back when we have a real coach.

Can't blame the coach when Hodgson led the team in points last season with Nolan.

 

[Sabretooth]

Can't blame the coach when Hodgson led the team in points last season with Nolan.

Hodgson had 15 pts in 20 games under rolston (.75ppg)
Hodgson had 29 pts in 52 games under nolan (.56ppg)

Ennis had 6 pts in 20 games under rolston (.30ppg)
Ennis had 37 pts in 60 games under nolan (.62ppg)

Now, points aren't the be all end all, and hodgson is even way under his performance last year under Nolan (.16ppg), but there is at least some justification for Nolan negatively effecting hodgson.

Last year when Nolan took over, he basically swapped Hodgson's and Ennis' roles. Within the span of a few games Hodgson lost vanek and then was moved to the middle 6 with whichever wingers were around, while moulson/ennis/stafford became the new top line. Hodgson still continued to produce pretty well all things considered, but it really shouldn't be a surprise that his production fell off a bit while ennis' exploded. The difference is last year hodgson still continued to get just about the same TOI and shifts per game as ennis when nolan took over, as well as continuing to get power play time. This year, hodgson is averaging 4 shifts and 5min TOI less per game than ennis, and gets no PP time.

This is what bugs me the most about the whole situation: ennis didn't earn the role he was handed by nolan last year. He did, however, generally prove he deserved it - he took advantage of the opportunities he was given after he was given them. Hodgson had his role and opportunities continuosly reduced under Nolan, and his production has dropped accordingly. Now, he can't be given more opportunity again until he's earned it? Even Leino was given more shifts and more TOI than hodgson this year. How's he supposed to earn it in 11 shifts and 8 minutes of ice time, followed by being scratched the next game? Seems like this kind of "coaching", where any little mistake gets him benched and scratched, would make it kinda hard to play your game under that kind of pressure.

I'm not even trying to defend hodgson, but Nolan's handling of hodgson has been very head scratching at times. Hodgson needs to be a lot better, sure. But rather that doing what he can to get the most out of hodgson, Nolan seems determined to do everything he can to get the absolute least out of him, in addition to completely shattering whatever confidence he has left. You can only bench a guy and scratch a guy so many times before it loses its effectiveness. At some point, if you're really interested in helping the player, you gotta try a different approach.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

Hodgson had 15 pts in 20 games under rolston (.75ppg)
Hodgson had 29 pts in 52 games under nolan (.56ppg)

Ennis had 6 pts in 20 games under rolston (.30ppg)
Ennis had 37 pts in 60 games under nolan (.62ppg)

Now, points aren't the be all end all, and hodgson is even way under his performance last year under Nolan (.16ppg), but there is at least some justification for Nolan negatively effecting hodgson.

Last year when Nolan took over, he basically swapped Hodgson's and Ennis' roles. Within the span of a few games Hodgson lost vanek and then was moved to the middle 6 with whichever wingers were around, while moulson/ennis/stafford became the new top line. Hodgson still continued to produce pretty well all things considered, but it really shouldn't be a surprise that his production fell off a bit while ennis' exploded. The difference is last year hodgson still continued to get just about the same TOI and shifts per game as ennis when nolan took over, as well as continuing to get power play time. This year, hodgson is averaging 4 shifts and 5min TOI less per game than ennis, and gets no PP time.

This is what bugs me the most about the whole situation: ennis didn't earn the role he was handed by nolan last year. He did, however, generally prove he deserved it - he took advantage of the opportunities he was given after he was given them. Hodgson had his role and opportunities continuosly reduced under Nolan, and his production has dropped accordingly. Now, he can't be given more opportunity again until he's earned it? Even Leino was given more shifts and more TOI than hodgson this year. How's he supposed to earn it in 11 shifts and 8 minutes of ice time, followed by being scratched the next game? Seems like this kind of "coaching", where any little mistake gets him benched and scratched, would make it kinda hard to play your game under that kind of pressure.

I'm not even trying to defend hodgson, but Nolan's handling of hodgson has been very head scratching at times. Hodgson needs to be a lot better, sure. But rather that doing what he can to get the most out of hodgson, Nolan seems determined to do everything he can to get the absolute least out of him, in addition to completely shattering whatever confidence he has left. You can only bench a guy and scratch a guy so many times before it loses its effectiveness. At some point, if you're really interested in helping the player, you gotta try a different approach.

Great analysis. Very interesting in how that trend started last year and continued downward this year.

 

[Jim Bob]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-cody-hodgson-out-again-could-sit-for-a-bit/

Struggling Sabres winger Cody Hodgson’s benching could last for a bit.

“Maybe two or three (games). Maybe four or five. Who knows?†Sabres coach Ted Nolan said this morning inside the First Niagara Center.

-----------------------------------
“Every personality on the team is different,†Nolan said. “With (Chris) Stewart, when he sat out, he was angry. He came back and you’ve seen his play. Some other people don’t take it that way.â€

 

[Djp]

Hodgson had 15 pts in 20 games under rolston (.75ppg)
Hodgson had 29 pts in 52 games under nolan (.56ppg)

Ennis had 6 pts in 20 games under rolston (.30ppg)
Ennis had 37 pts in 60 games under nolan (.62ppg)

Now, points aren't the be all end all, and hodgson is even way under his performance last year under Nolan (.16ppg), but there is at least some justification for Nolan negatively effecting hodgson.

Last year when Nolan took over, he basically swapped Hodgson's and Ennis' roles. Within the span of a few games Hodgson lost vanek and then was moved to the middle 6 with whichever wingers were around, while moulson/ennis/stafford became the new top line. Hodgson still continued to produce pretty well all things considered, but it really shouldn't be a surprise that his production fell off a bit while ennis' exploded. The difference is last year hodgson still continued to get just about the same TOI and shifts per game as ennis when nolan took over, as well as continuing to get power play time. This year, hodgson is averaging 4 shifts and 5min TOI less per game than ennis, and gets no PP time.

This is what bugs me the most about the whole situation: ennis didn't earn the role he was handed by nolan last year. He did, however, generally prove he deserved it - he took advantage of the opportunities he was given after he was given them. Hodgson had his role and opportunities continuosly reduced under Nolan, and his production has dropped accordingly. Now, he can't be given more opportunity again until he's earned it? Even Leino was given more shifts and more TOI than hodgson this year. How's he supposed to earn it in 11 shifts and 8 minutes of ice time, followed by being scratched the next game? Seems like this kind of "coaching", where any little mistake gets him benched and scratched, would make it kinda hard to play your game under that kind of pressure.

I'm not even trying to defend hodgson, but Nolan's handling of hodgson has been very head scratching at times. Hodgson needs to be a lot better, sure. But rather that doing what he can to get the most out of hodgson, Nolan seems determined to do everything he can to get the absolute least out of him, in addition to completely shattering whatever confidence he has left. You can only bench a guy and scratch a guy so many times before it loses its effectiveness. At some point, if you're really interested in helping the player, you gotta try a different approach.

I agre Nolan and Hodgson hasnt worked well together.

If buffalo were to change coaches in the off season then I may consider keeping him around.

i still believe to this day Hodgson shouldnt have gotten that contract and instead been given a bridge. Maybe that would have incentivized him, Because he got the contract he became more lack luster. I dont know.

I would be willing to trade Hodgson for Kane---the difference between the two is a secondary prospect/late 2nd round pick.

Or....Hodgson+Stafford (at 50%) for Kane+ 3rd

 

[Jim Bob]

I agre Nolan and Hodgson hasnt worked well together.

If buffalo were to change coaches in the off season then I may consider keeping him around.

i still believe to this day Hodgson shouldnt have gotten that contract and instead been given a bridge. Maybe that would have incentivized him, Because he got the contract he became more lack luster. I dont know.

I would be willing to trade Hodgson for Kane---the difference between the two is a secondary prospect/late 2nd round pick.

Or....Hodgson+Stafford (at 50%) for Kane+ 3rd

I don't think there is any chance that Winnipeg moves Kane for that package.

Especially with Hodgson doing his best Ville Leino impression this season.

 

[joshjull]

Hodgson had 15 pts in 20 games under rolston (.75ppg)
Hodgson had 29 pts in 52 games under nolan (.56ppg)

Ennis had 6 pts in 20 games under rolston (.30ppg)
Ennis had 37 pts in 60 games under nolan (.62ppg)

Now, points aren't the be all end all, and hodgson is even way under his performance last year under Nolan (.16ppg), but there is at least some justification for Nolan negatively effecting hodgson.

Last year when Nolan took over, he basically swapped Hodgson's and Ennis' roles. Within the span of a few games Hodgson lost vanek and then was moved to the middle 6 with whichever wingers were around, while moulson/ennis/stafford became the new top line. Hodgson still continued to produce pretty well all things considered, but it really shouldn't be a surprise that his production fell off a bit while ennis' exploded. The difference is last year hodgson still continued to get just about the same TOI and shifts per game as ennis when nolan took over, as well as continuing to get power play time. This year, hodgson is averaging 4 shifts and 5min TOI less per game than ennis, and gets no PP time.

Nope, thats not what happened.

20gms with Rolston
-13gms centering Vanek/Stafford playing 19+min a night
-7gms centering Moulson/Stafford/19+min a night

During Nolan's first 10gms as head coach Hodgson continued centering Moulson/Stafford and playing 19+min a night. So that would be 17gms centering those two after Vanek left. So no Hodgson didn't lose Vanek and get put in a "middle six" role in the span of a few games. Its also pure fiction that Hodgson and Ennis were swapped as soon as Nolan took over.

This is what bugs me the most about the whole situation: ennis didn't earn the role he was handed by nolan last year. He did, however, generally prove he deserved it - he took advantage of the opportunities he was given after he was given them. Hodgson had his role and opportunities continuosly reduced under Nolan, and his production has dropped accordingly. Now, he can't be given more opportunity again until he's earned it? Even Leino was given more shifts and more TOI than hodgson this year. How's he supposed to earn it in 11 shifts and 8 minutes of ice time, followed by being scratched the next game? Seems like this kind of "coaching", where any little mistake gets him benched and scratched, would make it kinda hard to play your game under that kind of pressure.

Thats not true either.

Hodgson got 10gms under Nolan playing the exact same role and minutes he did under Rolston with the same line mates. He only scored 1g 2a 3pts. Whereas Ennis during those first 10gms under Nolan had 4g 2a 6pts with "whatever wingers were around" as you put it. Sure seems like Ennis produced better with lesser players and earned a shot at the top line.

I'm not even trying to defend hodgson, but Nolan's handling of hodgson has been very head scratching at times. Hodgson needs to be a lot better, sure. But rather that doing what he can to get the most out of hodgson, Nolan seems determined to do everything he can to get the absolute least out of him, in addition to completely shattering whatever confidence he has left. You can only bench a guy and scratch a guy so many times before it loses its effectiveness. At some point, if you're really interested in helping the player, you gotta try a different approach.

Well lets get to the heart of it. What has Hodgson done to earn ice time with Girgs/Ennis? because thats the only folks he has a realistic chance to produce offense with. My argument would be he has done nothing. Stewart responded to his benching by producing 6pts in his next 9gms in the lineup before he played with Girgs/Ennis. Thus earning a spot on the top line. Last year Ennis earned a shot on the top line by putting up 6pts in 10gms on a lesser lines. Why inst Hodgson being held to the same standard by those making excuses for him?

The common theme with Ennis and Stewart is they are much better or faster skaters than Hodgson. So they can make things happen in a way he cannot. Its why they were able to have run of success on lesser lines to get moved up to then #1 line.


Most of what you put forth is a complete misrepresentation of what took place last year. Nolan didn't switch Ennis/Hodgson as soon as he took over. Nor did Hodgson go from Having Vanek on his wing to centering "middle 6" lines in a few games. Many of us wondered if Hodgson would be able to produce much offense without Vanek helping create time and space for him. Moulson certainly isn't that type of player. It sure seem to me like Hodgson production tailed off gradually after Vanek left. To the point where he had only 1 pt in his last 6gms on the top line last year.

 

[Sabretooth]

Nope, thats not what happened.

20gms with Rolston
-13gms centering Vanek/Stafford playing 19+min a night
-7gms centering Moulson/Stafford/19+min a night

During Nolan's first 10gms as head coach Hodgson continued centering Moulson/Stafford and playing 19+min a night. So that would be 17gms centering those two after Vanek left. So no Hodgson didn't lose Vanek and get put in a "middle six" role in the span of a few games. Its also pure fiction that Hodgson and Ennis were swapped as soon as Nolan took over.

Thanks for the clarification. It seemed shorter than 17 games, so I guess I was misremembering. Regardless, it was a relatively short time frame, and I never intended to imply that the switch was immediate when nolan took over, only that it happened shortly after.

Thats not true either.

Hodgson got 10gms under Nolan playing the exact same role and minutes he did under Rolston with the same line mates. He only scored 1g 2a 3pts. Whereas Ennis during those first 10gms under Nolan had 4g 2a 6pts with "whatever wingers were around" as you put it. Sure seems like Ennis produced better with lesser players and earned a shot at the top line.

<snip>

It sure seem to me like Hodgson production tailed off gradually after Vanek left. To the point where he had only 1 pt in his last 6gms on the top line last year.

Well, lets fully flesh out the stats then. If you're going to look at Hodgson's stats post-vanek, its not really fair to look at just the 10 games after nolan took over, without also looking at the 7 games after vanek with rolston as coach:

games 1-13:
Hodgson 4g-5a-9p (.69ppg, .31gpg) (Oct26th)
Ennis 1g-0a-1p (.08ppg, .08gpg)

games 14-20:
Hodgson 3g-3a-6p (.86ppg, .43gpg) (Nov12th)
Ennis 1g-4a-5p (.71ppg, .14gpg)

games 21-30:
Hodgson 1g-2a-3p (.30ppg, .10gpg) (Dec7th)
Ennis 4g-2a-6p (.60ppg, .40gpg)

Rest of season:
Hodgson 12g-14a-26p 42gp (.62ppg, .29gpg)
Ennis 15g-16a-31p 50gp (.62ppg, .3gpg)

So a few things:

1) Immediately after Vanek left, Hodgson's production actually increased. It doesn't fit with the "Hodgson's production tailed off gradually after vanek left" statement you made.

2) Hodgson's production DID tail off immediately after Nolan took over.

3) Hodgson and ennis basically matched production the rest of the season, so he has proven he can have success on lesser lines despite being a slower skater, as you pointed out.

Well lets get to the heart of it. What has Hodgson done to earn ice time with Girgs/Ennis?

As I said, I'm not intending to defend Hodgson or bash ennis. My post was about Nolan. It seems like a lot of this stemps from that 10 games Hodgson was kinda slumping and ennis got promoted. Hodgson and ennis were both just fine after that in there roles so there was no reason to ever change it, but my issue is how that has carried over to this year.

In Hodgson's first 13 games this season, he had 1g-1a-2p. Looks vaguely familiar, right? The difference is, hodgson only hit 18 min of TOI twice in that time, and was consistently under 16 min after just 8 games, with 3 in game benchings by the 13th game (10:48, 8:46, and 10:07 TOI in the games I'm calling benchings). Ennis never got the same treatment last year in the first 13 games, under rolston, where he basically matched how hodgson started this year. 13:55 was his min TOI and was over 18 min in 8 games out of 13, 3 times getting more than 20min.

The point is, hodgson hasn't earned anything. That is a perfectly fair statement. But I don't think he's been given a fair shake. The fact he started this year on such a short leash doesn't make a lot of sense, given how he performed last year. Unless there is something going on behind closed doors between hodgson and Nolan. Assuming not, Nolan's 1 trick, if a guy is in a slump, is to bench him and scratch him and hope it pisses him off enough to respond. Not everybody responds to that, especially when the treatment is just repeated over and over again every time hodgson makes a mistake. It seems like at this point, any little thing wrong he does gets him benched or scratched. At some point any player would just become numb to that. He's gotta be playing scared or overly cautious at best. He's essentially getting all negative reinforcement, and no positive reinforcement, and I'm not a psychologist but that doesn't seem like the best thing.

Imagine if ennis got the same treatment last year, and starts losing ice time, PP time, suffers benchings, and is healthy scratched before he's able to play out of his slump? Maybe he responds, or maybe not. Hodgson never really got a chance/the same chance to play his way out of his slump before he was in the doghouse.

So no, he hasn't earned anything. But that doesn't matter now. I mean, unless the goal is to completely ruin him as a player? Idk, maybe it is something person between Nolan and Hodgson. If not, forget about earning anything. Nolan's got to try something different. Playoffs are obviously pretty much mathematically out of the cards now, even Nolan should admit that, so it doesn't even matter about icing the best team or not. Put him on the PP, give him 18+min a night - it doesn't even need to be on the top line, stop benching him for every little mistake, and give him a chance to play out of his funk. That is what I would do at this point. Hodgson has looked better recently. Not in production, but in effort. But he's had no positive reinforcement, there's been no reward. Just more benchings and scratches. Well tough love is obviously not working. Tell him to play his game, to not worry about mistakes (and follow through by not punishing him for every mistake), and just go out and play. Thats essentially what Nolan told Myers right? Unless I'm misremembering that as well. Maybe it works for Hodgson as well, but I'm not sure the damage between Nolan and Hodgson hasn't been done permanently. I guess its hard to go back on the "earn it" mantra that nolan has been preaching at this point, but my point is he never really should have been on such a short leash to begin with.

Its sad and frustrating to me because it seems like a lot of squandered talent, at least offensively, when we're such a poor offensive team already.

 

[mikemcburn]

Thanks for the clarification. It seemed shorter than 17 games, so I guess I was misremembering. Regardless, it was a relatively short time frame, and I never intended to imply that the switch was immediate when nolan took over, only that it happened shortly after.

Well, lets fully flesh out the stats then. If you're going to look at Hodgson's stats post-vanek, its not really fair to look at just the 10 games after nolan took over, without also looking at the 7 games after vanek with rolston as coach:

games 1-13:
Hodgson 4g-5a-9p (.69ppg, .31gpg) (Oct26th)
Ennis 1g-0a-1p (.08ppg, .08gpg)

games 14-20:
Hodgson 3g-3a-6p (.86ppg, .43gpg) (Nov12th)
Ennis 1g-4a-5p (.71ppg, .14gpg)

games 21-30:
Hodgson 1g-2a-3p (.30ppg, .10gpg) (Dec7th)
Ennis 4g-2a-6p (.60ppg, .40gpg)

Rest of season:
Hodgson 12g-14a-26p 42gp (.62ppg, .29gpg)
Ennis 15g-16a-31p 50gp (.62ppg, .3gpg)

So a few things:

1) Immediately after Vanek left, Hodgson's production actually increased. It doesn't fit with the "Hodgson's production tailed off gradually after vanek left" statement you made.

2) Hodgson's production DID tail off immediately after Nolan took over.

3) Hodgson and ennis basically matched production the rest of the season, so he has proven he can have success on lesser lines despite being a slower skater, as you pointed out.

As I said, I'm not intending to defend Hodgson or bash ennis. My post was about Nolan. It seems like a lot of this stemps from that 10 games Hodgson was kinda slumping and ennis got promoted. Hodgson and ennis were both just fine after that in there roles so there was no reason to ever change it, but my issue is how that has carried over to this year.

In Hodgson's first 13 games this season, he had 1g-1a-2p. Looks vaguely familiar, right? The difference is, hodgson only hit 18 min of TOI twice in that time, and was consistently under 16 min after just 8 games, with 3 in game benchings by the 13th game (10:48, 8:46, and 10:07 TOI in the games I'm calling benchings). Ennis never got the same treatment last year in the first 13 games, under rolston, where he basically matched how hodgson started this year. 13:55 was his min TOI and was over 18 min in 8 games out of 13, 3 times getting more than 20min.

The point is, hodgson hasn't earned anything. That is a perfectly fair statement. But I don't think he's been given a fair shake. The fact he started this year on such a short leash doesn't make a lot of sense, given how he performed last year. Unless there is something going on behind closed doors between hodgson and Nolan. Assuming not, Nolan's 1 trick, if a guy is in a slump, is to bench him and scratch him and hope it pisses him off enough to respond. Not everybody responds to that, especially when the treatment is just repeated over and over again every time hodgson makes a mistake. It seems like at this point, any little thing wrong he does gets him benched or scratched. At some point any player would just become numb to that. He's gotta be playing scared or overly cautious at best. He's essentially getting all negative reinforcement, and no positive reinforcement, and I'm not a psychologist but that doesn't seem like the best thing.

Imagine if ennis got the same treatment last year, and starts losing ice time, PP time, suffers benchings, and is healthy scratched before he's able to play out of his slump? Maybe he responds, or maybe not. Hodgson never really got a chance/the same chance to play his way out of his slump before he was in the doghouse.

So no, he hasn't earned anything. But that doesn't matter now. I mean, unless the goal is to completely ruin him as a player? Idk, maybe it is something person between Nolan and Hodgson. If not, forget about earning anything. Nolan's got to try something different. Playoffs are obviously pretty much mathematically out of the cards now, even Nolan should admit that, so it doesn't even matter about icing the best team or not. Put him on the PP, give him 18+min a night - it doesn't even need to be on the top line, stop benching him for every little mistake, and give him a chance to play out of his funk. That is what I would do at this point. Hodgson has looked better recently. Not in production, but in effort. But he's had no positive reinforcement, there's been no reward. Just more benchings and scratches. Well tough love is obviously not working. Tell him to play his game, to not worry about mistakes (and follow through by not punishing him for every mistake), and just go out and play. Thats essentially what Nolan told Myers right? Unless I'm misremembering that as well. Maybe it works for Hodgson as well, but I'm not sure the damage between Nolan and Hodgson hasn't been done permanently. I guess its hard to go back on the "earn it" mantra that nolan has been preaching at this point, but my point is he never really should have been on such a short leash to begin with.

Its sad and frustrating to me because it seems like a lot of squandered talent, at least offensively, when we're such a poor offensive team already.

Great post for its comprehensive consideration of the topic. Good stuff.

I think it should be flagged, which you've done in a round 'bout way really, that coaches and players are people too. Meaning human. Which means the psychology of basic human interaction is always going to come into the analysis.

So speaking about humans... it's not uncommon for us to have preferences for different personalities and styles, to have preconceived ideas that we sometimes expect to be to true so much that we actually make true (self-fulfilling prophecies), or to develop a bias (pro or con) that we cannot see beyond, yadda yadda.

If there is one thing I've figured out about Nolan this season it's that he's very very human. He obviously has a bias toward a certain player style, and is equally human where it goes to being so stubbornly locked into a belief that he manufacturers the scenario to make it so.

For my own part, I don't fault Nolan (or certain fans;-)) for having a preference for one player style (ie: "try hard, chase hits, grind") or a bias against another (ie: Hodgson's seemingly more cerebral way). I totally get it. Just as I totally get that no matter how fast or slow a guy is, there is always someone who is going to be faster or slower, and that sometimes it's only our imagination that one guy is trying merely because he's faster while another isn't trying because he's slower.

So yeah, I get the whole being human thing. What gets to me is the wholesale lack of common sense Nolan is now displaying. Some of his reactions and commentary have been so irrational where Hodgson is concerned, I have to presume this has run too deep to be fixed between them.

So for the sake of the team (and Hodgson's career too), just trade him already.

 

[SabresBillsBuffalo]

Why give up on the guy? He's young and on just an absolutely terrible team. If he struggles with good people then do something. Don't wreck the guys career on a tank team.

 

[joshjull]

Thanks for the clarification. It seemed shorter than 17 games, so I guess I was misremembering. Regardless, it was a relatively short time frame, and I never intended to imply that the switch was immediate when nolan took over, only that it happened shortly after.

You tried to claim Hodgson was unfairly passed over by Ennis by Nolan for the #1 spot almost immediately after Nolan got here. A baseless claim. You used incredibly flawed or inaccurate points to make it.

Well, lets fully flesh out the stats then. If you're going to look at Hodgson's stats post-vanek, its not really fair to look at just the 10 games after nolan took over, without also looking at the 7 games after vanek with rolston as coach:

games 1-13:
Hodgson 4g-5a-9p (.69ppg, .31gpg) (Oct26th)
Ennis 1g-0a-1p (.08ppg, .08gpg)

games 14-20:
Hodgson 3g-3a-6p (.86ppg, .43gpg) (Nov12th)
Ennis 1g-4a-5p (.71ppg, .14gpg)

games 21-30:
Hodgson 1g-2a-3p (.30ppg, .10gpg) (Dec7th)
Ennis 4g-2a-6p (.60ppg, .40gpg)

Rest of season:
Hodgson 12g-14a-26p 42gp (.62ppg, .29gpg)
Ennis 15g-16a-31p 50gp (.62ppg, .3gpg)

I referenced the 10gms under Nolan for both players because thats what he based switching them on. No new coach is going to rely on the previously fired coaches handling of players to make his decisions. He's going to look at what he has going forward. After 10gms Nolan decided to switch Ennis and Hodgson based on how they had played in those 10gms for him.

So a few things:

1) Immediately after Vanek left, Hodgson's production actually increased. It doesn't fit with the "Hodgson's production tailed off gradually after vanek left" statement you made.

Sigh, you are exhausting in your parsing of things. Hodgson had 4pts in his first 4 games with Moulson. Then he was held without a shot on goal in games 5 and 6. It led to both of them getting benched game 6. Hodgson bounced back with 2g in game #7 before Rolston got fired. Then he had no points in game 8 (first under Nolan) then 1 pt in game 9 then no points in games 10/11 before scoring a goal in game 12. Then he had a 5gm pointless streak.

When I say his production started to tail off after Vanek left. I'm referring to the pattern that emerged in ALL 17gms with Mouslon.

Then there is the whole sample size thing.

2) Hodgson's production DID tail off immediately after Nolan took over.

You do realize that since Nolan left Hodgson in the EXACT same role with the EXACT same line mates getting the EXACT same minutes as Rolston gave him. You're trying to argue Nolan's mere presence on the bench made Hodgson's game tail off. I hope you realize the absurdity of that position. Nolan came on board 7 gms after the player that made Hodgson most productive had been traded. Common sense would dictate that a fall off was possible in that situation regardless of coach. Or maybe Rolston hugged Hodgson a lot before every game with his gardening gloves on and that gave Hodgson confidence.

3) Hodgson and ennis basically matched production the rest of the season, so he has proven he can have success on lesser lines despite being a slower skater, as you pointed out.

Not sure what you point is here.

As I said, I'm not intending to defend Hodgson or bash ennis. My post was about Nolan. It seems like a lot of this stemps from that 10 games Hodgson was kinda slumping and ennis got promoted. Hodgson and ennis were both just fine after that in there roles so there was no reason to ever change it, but my issue is how that has carried over to this year.

Change what?

In Hodgson's first 13 games this season, he had 1g-1a-2p. Looks vaguely familiar, right?[/B] The difference is, hodgson only hit 18 min of TOI twice in that time, and was consistently under 16 min after just 8 games, with 3 in game benchings by the 13th game (10:48, 8:46, and 10:07 TOI in the games I'm calling benchings). Ennis never got the same treatment last year in the first 13 games, under rolston, where he basically matched how hodgson started this year. 13:55 was his min TOI and was over 18 min in 8 games out of 13, 3 times getting more than 20min.

I'm not sure what you point is here either. Girgs became a factor at center that wasn't an option for much of last year. From a defensive pov they used Girgs and wanted to see if Ennis could handle a two way role. Obviously Hodgson is a train wreck defensively so he wasn't an option for either role. So obviously his ice time would be impacted. And obviously Ennis failed spectacularly in that two way role.

And what relevance is Ennis and his first 13gms of last year under Rolston? You really need to let go of that.

The point is, hodgson hasn't earned anything. That is a perfectly fair statement. But I don't think he's been given a fair shake. The fact he started this year on such a short leash doesn't make a lot of sense, given how he performed last year. Unless there is something going on behind closed doors between hodgson and Nolan. Assuming not, Nolan's 1 trick, if a guy is in a slump, is to bench him and scratch him and hope it pisses him off enough to respond. Not everybody responds to that, especially when the treatment is just repeated over and over again every time hodgson makes a mistake. It seems like at this point, any little thing wrong he does gets him benched or scratched. At some point any player would just become numb to that. He's gotta be playing scared or overly cautious at best. He's essentially getting all negative reinforcement, and no positive reinforcement, and I'm not a psychologist but that doesn't seem like the best thing

Imagine if ennis got the same treatment last year, and starts losing ice time, PP time, suffers benchings, and is healthy scratched before he's able to play out of his slump? Maybe he responds, or maybe not. Hodgson never really got a chance/the same chance to play his way out of his slump before he was in the doghouse.

So no, he hasn't earned anything. But that doesn't matter now. I mean, unless the goal is to completely ruin him as a player? Idk, maybe it is something person between Nolan and Hodgson. If not, forget about earning anything. Nolan's got to try something different. Playoffs are obviously pretty much mathematically out of the cards now, even Nolan should admit that, so it doesn't even matter about icing the best team or not. Put him on the PP, give him 18+min a night - it doesn't even need to be on the top line, stop benching him for every little mistake, and give him a chance to play out of his funk. That is what I would do at this point. Hodgson has looked better recently. Not in production, but in effort. But he's had no positive reinforcement, there's been no reward. Just more benchings and scratches. Well tough love is obviously not working. Tell him to play his game, to not worry about mistakes (and follow through by not punishing him for every mistake), and just go out and play. Thats essentially what Nolan told Myers right? Unless I'm misremembering that as well. Maybe it works for Hodgson as well, but I'm not sure the damage between Nolan and Hodgson hasn't been done permanently. I guess its hard to go back on the "earn it" mantra that nolan has been preaching at this point, but my point is he never really should have been on such a short leash to begin with.

Its sad and frustrating to me because it seems like a lot of squandered talent, at least offensively, when we're such a poor offensive team already

The summary of this is you feel he's been unfairly treated and that Nolan needs to stop benching him because hits not working.

The thing thats unfair to Hodgson is he needs to be with players to help him create time and space for himself. Its not his fault they're not on the team outside on the top line. So benching him is harsh in that context because its not going to change the issues with the roster. But the flip side is he brings next to nothing if he isn't producing offense. So when a Foligno comes back I get why he is benched. Hodgson is in a tough situation right now because of his limitations as a player. It makes it very hard for him to contribute in way that would get him better opportunities. Maybe they will just hand him a shot on the top line after Stewart gets traded but I'm doubtful.

Btw I'm off the opinion he will bounce back fine once we have a deeper more talent forward group. Thus allowing us to put him with folks to help him produce without having to break up our top line.

I get the concerns about his handling this year but your comments on last year are incredibly misguided. You basically came into this thread with a false narrative in your head and have had a tough time letting go of it.