MayDay
Registered User
Magic Number isn't a matter of opinion or belief or how you think the rest of the season might play out.
It's a mathematical fact.
Speculation: Sabres Magic Number
- Thread starter rowf
- Start date
Magic Number isn't a matter of opinion or belief or how you think the rest of the season might play out.
It's a mathematical fact.
MacOfNiagara
Registered User
Thanks for the insight. Much appreciated.
The rest of the season still has to play out and yes, there is a "magic number". We can calculate that number after the fact i.e. after the games have been played. No one knows how those games will unfold. So we can track that magic number - but is unpredictable and based on how teams perform game to game.
For me - I like to look at the schedule and have some fun predicting how I think things will go. It adds interest for me as I follow all the teams involved.
I happen to think that Buffalo will end up with 53 points. Sorry that I've upset your apple cart and dared to speculate on how many points Buffalo will get this year and take a different approach the season's outcome than yours.
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unfortunately at this point deadlines over and there nothing he can do unless he fires nolan
Cap'n
Registered User
Hey guys, had some extra time on my hands, found this thread pretty interesting, so here's the actual magic number to eliminate each team. I plan on coming back and editing this post with the updated numbers after each Sabres game. (for the record, I'm assuming Buffalo loses the tie breaker of Regulation Wins against all teams which is only close with Edmonton at this point.)
Team - Pts (Games Remaining) - #Magic Number for 30th overall finish
Buffalo - 48 pts (7) = greatest possible point total = 62
Arizona - 54 (6) - #8
Edmonton - 57 (7) - #5
All other teams have already dropped out of the running for 30th oa.
Team - Pts (Games Remaining) - #Magic Number for 30th overall finish
Buffalo - 48 pts (7) = greatest possible point total = 62
Arizona - 54 (6) - #8
Edmonton - 57 (7) - #5
All other teams have already dropped out of the running for 30th oa.
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Sabretooth
Registered User
Ummm... you're missing the point. Magic number/elimination number is an actual thing. Its seen mostly in baseball and its usually used to to track the number of wins + opponent losses before you make the playoffs (magic number), or losses plus opponent wins before you're eliminated (elimination number). It's just a calculation based on current standings and games remaining.
For the sabres, the magic number is the number of points the sabres need to lose or the team in 29th needs to win in order to clinch last place. When the magic number reaches 0 last place is clinched. Right now the magic number is 28. The sabres can lose 14 games in regulation and clinch last place regardless of what anyone else does. Or the sabres could lose 7 and the team in 29th can win 7 to reduce the magic number to 0.
You're free to speculate on the rest of the season however you'd like but what you're doing is not magic number.
Ummmm....which is what I said in my original post when I stated that I don't have a magic number. What I have is a feeling that the Sabres will get 53 points. I agree there's a magic number. I'm looking at it differently while acknowledging that there is a number. So sorry to have speculated on what I think the Sabres will attain and view it from that standpoint. I shall acquiesce. Sheeesh!
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Sabretooth
Registered User
I don't get what you're so upset about. Nobody's on your case for thinking about the rest of the season however you want. All your really saying by speculating that the sabres will only reach 53 points is that they'll contribute to reducing their magic number by 22 and 6 more points will need to be won by edmonton in order for the sabres to mathematically finish lower. You're just applying the concept of magic number to make a prediction on the rest of the season. Theres nothing wrong with that.
But when you said "you don't really have a magic number" its kind of a nonsensical statement because there is only 1 magic number and it just is. You don't choose to have it or not. Its just a number to track when the sabres mathematically clinch last.
ZZamboni
Puttin' on the Foil
Cap'n
Registered User
You're also over simplifying by presuming that there is just one singular magic number when there are multiple teams that are threats. Under your scenario of 22 from the Sabres and 6 from Edmonton you ignore that if Arizona doesn't also pickup points the Sabres still don't finish last. Unless Buffalo is gonna contribute all 28 pts themselves by losing in regulation 14 of 16 then theyre likely going to need Arizona and Edmonton to pick up points.
Bobby Bottle Service
Win for Rick
Sabretooth
Registered User
No if edmonton goes on a winning streak and arizona becomes the new team in 29th then the sabres magic number is then calculated based on arizona instead of edmonton. You'll notice in my example i was careful to say the sabres would clinch finishing behind edmonton, not clinch last. The magic number for the 30th place team clinching 30th is always just based on 30th and 29th. What you're describing is elimination numbers, the numbers for each team still in reach of last to be mathematically eliminated from last, if you want to get all technical.
The magic number refers only to the gap between the Sabres and the next-lowest team. The identity of that team is immaterial. If Arizona or Columbus or Toronto lose so many games in a row that they fall to 29th, the number will still reflect how many points the Sabres need to lose (and have the 29th place team gain) to remain in 30th. Every game the Sabres lose reduces the number by two. Every game the 29th place team wins also reduces the number by two. Whatever the identity of the 29th place team.
CatsforReinhart
Registered User
Well it does not look like we pick any less then fourth so
Hanifin, Strome, McDavid, Marner or Eichel will be a sabre.
Hanifin, Strome, McDavid, Marner or Eichel will be a sabre.
EichHart
Registered User
When did we clinch 30th last season, at the 75 game mark right? Definitely not going to have 7 games of comfort this season unfortunately. Would be so nice to have though, as we can finally cheer for our team to win those last 7 games.
sabres_phan
Registered User
- Feb 14, 2005
- 776
- 69
Unless 29th wins and there are currently teams tied for 29th or there is one point separating 29th and 28th...
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
brian_griffin
"Eric Cartman?"
THanks for putting this together. Let's update it every 4-5 games or so through end of season (4 more updates).
Yes, with Boston win, Sabres are first team eliminated in NHL. Playing in a 16-team conference helps that as much as their lowest point total does.
There are other threads for that speculation.
I don't know how you "mathematically" assume BUF picks any higher than 4th, unless you're using intuition or "picking games" from remaining teams schedules.
One might project since BUF has earned 33% of their possible points this season through 66 games, then over the remaining 16 games (with no accounting for schedule difficulty), they'd earn no more than 10 points, and finish with 53 points. That method alone, (i.e., ignoring their competitor's performance), would put them in 28th. If you're using such a projection and assuming BUF gets a little lucky, then, yes, I think the "race to the bottom" is a 5-team race, as has been discussed in the TANK thread version MCMLXII.
Agreed, but it's implicit in the OP's methodology and Cap'n 's table above.Unless 29th wins and there are currently teams tied for 29th or there is one point separating 29th and 28th...
And, to fing0rz question, the answer no, the original poster assumes BUF wins the ROW tiebreak.
Wisent42
Registered User
Arizona got a point last night. While this doesn't change the mathematical magic number, it changes the inofficial magic number to 25. Because we do expect Arizona to outtank Edmonton, right?
McCauleyChirps
Gare's "Partner"
Games Played | 66 | 67 | 67 |
Games Remaining | 16 | 15 | 15 |
Points | 43 | 47 | 50 |
McEichel Number | | 29 | 26 |
% of finishing 30th | 81 | 15 | 4 |
For your viewing pleasure via Google Sheets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3QhNNqbpofBFS_dVd-4/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true
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McCauleyChirps
Gare's "Partner"
Not really. If Arizona out tanks Edmonton, then Arizona's number doesn't go down as rapidly as Edmonton's. The number is still 29.
That was a BIG point last night. With the playoff races starting, the intensity is about to get ratcheted up bigtime. Aside from those two head-to-head games w/ Zona, I'm really not expecting any of these three teams to win another game this year.
