Speculation: Sabres Magic Number

[rowf]

18 games left, I am guessing Sabres don't get more than 7 more points. That would take us to 50 points for the year.

Oilers need 5points , and Coyotes need 3 , then we guaranteed Eichel and 20% chance at McDavid, and this terrible season has a silver lining

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[Beerz]

20 games left?

Don't make it longer than it needs to be.

 

[rowf]

Oops corrected

 

[Beerz]

17 bro!

17!

 

[sabres_phan]

17 now I think

 

[haseoke39]

5 posts in and I think we figured out how to count

 

[rowf]

Anyways how many points do you think this team could possibly get? I thought 7 in 20, 6 in 17?

 

[OhreallyOrielly]

Anyways how many points do you think this team could possibly get? I thought 7 in 20, 6 in 17?

The two Arizona games scare me. I think if we come out with a split or better we're in good shape.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

That's not how magic numbers work. The real magic number is 30. That's how many points have to either be lost by Buffalo or won by 29th place to guarantee last place.

 

[mgeise]

That's not how magic numbers work. The real magic number is 30. That's how many points have to either be lost by Buffalo or won by 29th place to guarantee last place.

This.

 

[WNY to NoVA]

i got them at least with points in 7 games so 14 or ~11pts

 

[jBuds]

I hate to be a party pooper, but wouldn't logic and law dictate an imminent winning streak, or at least a stretch of competitiveness that garners a handful of points?

I think if we self handicap, and mentally prepare for Hanifin; anything better becomes icing on the cake and a pleasant surprise.

 

[Matt Ress]

That's the safe move, bud. I would think that the Yotes are due too though.

 

[allsilverdreams]

No way does TM let us finish out of last place.he didn't get this far in the season to fuk it up now.fans would loose ther mind.myself included

 

[allsilverdreams]

TM is just making it look like he is not tanking

 

[TehDoak]

No way does TM let us finish out of last place.he didn't get this far in the season to fuk it up now.fans would loose ther mind.myself included

There is nothing left tm can do unless he fires ted and coaches himself

 

[krt88]

The magic number

Current standings:

Toronto 57 points (17)
Carolina 55 points (19)
Arizona 49 points (17)
Edmonton 47 points (17)
Buffalo 43 points (17)

As of right now the magic number to eliminate each team

Toronto is 10
Carolina is 11
Arizona is 14
Edmonton is 15

There are simply too many games to play. Once the schedule is under 10 games the magic number will start to look truly promising but the key games for Buffalo:

3/11 vs Toronto

The gap here is where it become dangerous. As I doubt the Coyotes are gonna win many games

3/26 vs Arizona
3/30 at Arizona
4/1 vs Toronto
4/6 vs Carolina

Hopefully, if we can lose those Arizona games this will be over before April starts.

Once the season ends we should ban the word tank on this forum.

 

[Cap'n]

Once the season ends we should ban the word tank on this forum.

But Austin Matthews is right there for the taking and we already have a head start on everyone but Arizona!

 

[krt88]

TM is just making it look like he is not tanking

Trust me, TM isn't fooling anyone. Down in Raleigh, the Canes fans (all 37 of them) say that at least they show up every night and truly try to win. Their GM didn't trade away all the talent. They hope someone other than Buffalo wins the lottery. Personally if Buffalo doesn't win, I don't want to see McDavid end up in a horrible hockey market.

My response to those fans is that, the Sabres sell their arena out every night despite being horrible. Even when they are good, Carolina, Arizona and Florida can't fill their building.

I understand what the TM is doing but when I sit back and put real thought to it, terrible. Once the draft system changes, that will solve this type of problem.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Trust me, TM isn't fooling anyone. Down in Raleigh, the Canes fans (all 37 of them) say that at least they show up every night and truly try to win. Their GM didn't trade away all the talent. They hope someone other than Buffalo wins the lottery. Personally if Buffalo doesn't win, I don't want to see McDavid end up in a horrible hockey market.

My response to those fans is that, the Sabres sell their arena out every night despite being horrible. Even when they are good, Carolina, Arizona and Florida can't fill their building.

I understand what the TM is doing but when I sit back and put real thought to it, terrible. Once the draft system changes, that will solve this type of problem.

I agree it's an absurd system. But it is what it is and we've planned and "suffered" for it and want it now. So close we can taste it.

And Murray/Regier have set this up so we can turn around very quickly. I expect us to be considerably better next year and with new lottery rules we could luck into a good pick in 2016 despite playing much better.

I've watched and paid for the Sabres for 40 plus years. I'm very happy with this season.

 

[krt88]

How many TRULY ELITE players has this franchise had in its history?

I think 3

Perreault
LaFontaine (career cut short by injuries)
Hasek

Only Gilbert was project ahead of time as being truly elite.

This Franchise deserve an elite player

 

[MacOfNiagara]

There is nothing left tm can do unless he fires ted and coaches himself

Agreed. Now we just enjoy (terrify) over the run to the finish line

Magic number at 30 for Oilers, 28 for Arizona.

At least I think that is right. Since you subtract from that number if we lose or if they win, you have to have separate magic numbers for each of the other teams that could catch you.

 

[MacOfNiagara]

The magic number

Current standings:

Toronto 57 points (17)
Carolina 55 points (19)
Arizona 49 points (17)
Edmonton 47 points (17)
Buffalo 43 points (17)

As of right now the magic number to eliminate each team

Toronto is 10
Carolina is 11
Arizona is 14
Edmonton is 15

Don't think your magic numbers are correct (although I could be wrong)

You assume worst mathematical possibility.

So Edmonton loses all remaining games and stays at 47 points.
Buffalo wins every remaining game (lol, I know) 17 games x 2 points each = 34 points added to the 43 they currently have and you get 77. The most the Sabres could mathematically finish with.

Edmonton worst outcome = 47
Buffalo best outcome = 77

Difference between the two numbers is 30. That is the magic number (I think)

Any time EDM gains a point, or Buffalo fails to win a point, you subtract from that number.

 

[5 Minute Major]

The gap here is where it become dangerous. As I doubt the Coyotes are gonna win many games.

In Arizona's last 4 games they outshot Vancouver and the Rangers, and were barely outshot by Anaheim and Boston.

They will pick up some unexpected wins down the stretch.

 

[Dex]

I don't know that I have a magic number. I've looked at the Sabres schedule and have them winning 4 of the remaining 17 games and picking up a couple of loser points. But they are going to have to play very badly as there are a lot of very soft opponents.

That puts them at 53 points for the season.

Which means Az needs 4 more points and Edmonton 6. That's where it gets dicey. Az has a very tough schedule. I think they'll win one of the Buffalo games and perhaps NJ. I'm hoping for a few loser points.

Edmonton has a couple of winnable games. They've got a shot today against Carolina and I can see them winning against Toronto at home. Games against Colorado, Dallas and Columbus could be point-getters.

It's going to be really close as Buffalo has the easiest schedule by far.