As I said before, there is little to suggest that Poehling will be a 2nd line centre in the NHL this year. In fact many people who have followed him for years, say that his upside is likely on the third line.
That's even after watching his 25 or so games with Laval last year. You can say he has quicker hands and better offensive game than Danault but I disagree.
His results in College don't suggest a future top six forward
His results in 2019-20 don't suggest a future top-six forward.
It is only last season that he showed that kind of offensive potential, and that must be weighed by the fact that he was playing a small sample of games (about 1/3 of a regular year), against bad competition (taxi squad and only 3 opponents made for a worse AHL than normal).
So yeah, the chances of him being a 2nd liner in the future are small, but still possible. He will still need more development though.
The chances he is a second liner and better than Danault right now.... zero. And its just setting unrealistic expectations to even say that he is.
This isn't Cole Caufield who has been an elite scorer at every level. Its not the same.
I will revisit some of your points, we will start with your last one, Caufield. While his goalscoring abilities and skills were obvious, Caufield had a couple of question marks in his draft year regarding his future. First, his size. How many 5"7 players were playing in the big league in his draft year? 1 Debrincat who was arguably a better skater. Caufield's first season in Wisconsin has been difficult, he and the team struggled bad to play structured hockey, Caufield had all sort of trouble to handle the physicality of the league and was porous defensively to say the least, he was producing decently, but most Badgers fans hated his 2-way play and commitment. Most nights he was costing goals more than he was bringing to the table offensively. In his sophomore (this year), he started the year about where he left, he wasnt consistent and was cheating alot on the ice, his play was making me sick at times... But after some games, his game started to shape up, I think the turning point was the games against Arizona State, a really bad team that they lost twice to, both games were broadcasted by RDS and watched by alot of Habs fans, in those games Caufield's weaknessess were exposed and he didnt look good at all, so that made alot of noise and created some debates among "experts", some were doubting about his future and all. Strangely, after those games Caufield started to play with much more poise, consistecy and commitment, I think the WJC also helped to realize what it takes to win and we know the rest of the story, he was a beast in the 2nd half and made his way on the Habs top line and 1st PP unit. IMO, Caufield had a spectacular progression, his 200 ft. work looked so far away last year and early the last season. When I look back, I think playing for a stacked NDTP program didnt help him to develop good habits, that team was so stacked that they could win on skills alone, the defensive part of the game and paying attention to details wasnt really a priority. Hugues had a tough rookie season as well, he wasnt ready to jump in at 18.
About Poehling now. We are all aware that his production in the NCAA stagnated and that he projects more as a third line center than a solid top 6. But we all saw his WJC tenure as well and saw some undeniable potenital, the skills arent outstanding, but they are there. You dont win the MVP award in a such competition on luck whatever the level competition of some nations. Poehling displayed quick hands, a very high pace and capacity to bring his game at another level when it counts. He was solid on 200 ft., was making plays and generating offense on most shifts. As I said, a more offensively gifted Danault is what I think he projects, we will see how his defensive game and faceoffs skills evolve, but I do think he has the smarts to get there, or close to it after some seasoning... Keep in mind that Danault played as our number #1 - #2 center only because we had no better to offer, meanwhile Poehling has Suzuki and KK over him in the depth chart. So I have no problem to have a kid like Poehling as third line center on a contender. I do have problem to have a Danault as #2 line center on a bubble team.
Edit: Last point I wanted to clear. Struggling at your 1st pro season is what about 95% of the kids have to go through and Poehling isnt an exception. He still was more productive than what Danault offered at the same age, same level, the difference comes at their 2nd pro season, Danault is about 0.5 PPG game while Poehling close to the PPG.
