Prospect Info: Ryan Poehling Part 4 - Big Man on Campus

[BaseballCoach]

Damn you... making me think before April. Two ways to look at this:

1) Force the window open between now and the next two years. Optimize Weber, Price and Petry's remaining prime years by pursuing top pro talent. Try getting Erik Karlsson and Mike Stone, or similar top talent. Likelihood of doing this? Slim. UFAs usually avoid Montreal. Trading for a top player requires us to give a top player in return, which short circuits the win-now mode. Bergevin hasn't shown an ability to sign top players, so this approach is unrealistic.

2) Open the window slowly beginning in two years. Optimize the younger core by trading up in the draft for potential future stars. We're not in a top-10 draft position, but we can trade with a team that is. Wait for the off season and dangle Petry, Byron, Weber to current bottom teams that want to make the playoffs next year. There are plenty of teams who are beyond rebuilding and want to compete -- our top vets give them the solid talent they need to make a run next season. If they're hesitant about losing their high 1st-round pick, give them our own mid 1st-round pick. Our 16-18th pick for their 5-9th might fly if it's packaged with one of our top vets. Losing Weber and Petry is a major hit next year, but in two years their roles will start being diminished anyway (plus, Petry needs a new contract). Trading our key vets sooner addresses a problem before it happens -- we get top prospects who could become potential stars by the time Petry and Weber are declining. Also, removing those veteran cap hits opens up room for the many RFA contracts.

Next year would probably be a defensive mess, but by 2021 we'd start benefitting from our current prospects plus the hopeful top picks we acquired. Keep Carey Price, but in two years start managing his games with a solid backup like Lindgren/Primeau/___.

Likelihood of succeeding: Decent. No guarantees we draft a future star. But trading for a high pick offers a good chance of a net gain in overall talent, especially considering the vets we traded away would be older by then anyway. We'd have a younger team that we've drafted ourselves, giving us much more contract flexibility. That's when we can fill the holes with a UFA or trade our picks for pro talent.

You have outlined the two options but I am not on board with your conclusions. You've waved your hand at conclusions but there is no way to see that the second option is decent while the first is unrealistic. Anyone could just as easily have the opposite feeling.

A bigger issue I have is the GM. If he can't do the job, he needs to be changed. Waiting two years postpones the recovery if he is not good.

My suggestion: Try getting a UFA or two this summer, and trading for a LD. Raise the bar on the GM and provide him a target of being in the final eight next year. If he can't make any moves to get us in that direction, let him go by summer 2020 latest, a full year before the expansion draft.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Young Core who will need new contracts in the next 3 or 4 years:

- Mete (Age 20). Needs a new contract this offseason

No, he has another year on his ELC.

 

[Habs Halifax]

No, he has another year on his ELC.

Correct. I had it right in another post.

 

[Miller Time]

You have outlined the two options but I am not on board with your conclusions. You've waved your hand at conclusions but there is no way to see that the second option is decent while the first is unrealistic. Anyone could just as easily have the opposite feeling.

A bigger issue I have is the GM. If he can't do the job, he needs to be changed. Waiting two years postpones the recovery if he is not good.

My suggestion: Try getting a UFA or two this summer, and trading for a LD. Raise the bar on the GM and provide him a target of being in the final eight next year. If he can't make any moves to get us in that direction, let him go by summer 2020 latest, a full year before the expansion draft.

I'd be very wary of having MB in charge with hard results target on his head... Guy has been terrible in a country club atmosphere with no pressure from above... Hare to see him working with a noose above his head, could be disastrous.

Fire him this offseason, hire Yzerman.

 

[BaseballCoach]

1) You are correct with Bergevin's inability to sign top UFA free agents (except for Radulov but he then lost him 12 months after). I think he should of went after the 3 year team personally. I just wonder the factor of key UFA players not willing to sign with the Habs due to how we were trending? Not sure. We will find out this summer cause I think we will try to be in on Karlsson, Stone, Panarin with our cap space. Cost us nothing to inquire and try. Realistic or not? Not sure. I think a team trending in the right direction with a top prospect pool is the best resume we have had in years. Might still not be enough.

There are seven top free agents, who are young enough to be considered prizes. I would guess they are going to 7 different teams.

With our cap space and huge improvement this year, I would guess the odds of being one of the seven sweepstakes winners are over 50%. Not everyone has the will or means to play.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I'd be very wary of having MB in charge with hard results target on his head... Guy has been terrible in a country club atmosphere with no pressure from above... Hare to see him working with a noose above his head, could be disastrous.

Fire him this offseason, hire Yzerman.

I understand your point of view, but he won't be fired unless he fails. In my view he failed already, but alas he still here. If he has no target to hit, he will still be in charge once the hard result target is put in place in two years or three.

 

[Lshap]

You have outlined the two options but I am not on board with your conclusions. You've waved your hand at conclusions but there is no way to see that the second option is decent while the first is unrealistic. Anyone could just as easily have the opposite feeling.

A bigger issue I have is the GM. If he can't do the job, he needs to be changed. Waiting two years postpones the recovery if he is not good.

My suggestion: Try getting a UFA or two this summer, and trading for a LD. Raise the bar on the GM and provide him a target of being in the final eight next year. If he can't make any moves to get us in that direction, let him go by summer 2020 latest, a full year before the expansion draft.

I admit my conclusions are pure guesses, but they are supported by history. Bergevin -- and every recent Habs GM -- has had trouble getting top UFAs to sign here. Montreal's lousy track record with UFAs extends back beyond Bergevin, so we have to assume our unique market plays a part in making these coveted players even tougher to get. Based on that history, I do think it's unrealistic that a Karlsson or Stone would sign here. And without a premium UFA the Habs simply don't have enough high-end talent to compete right now, if we're hoping to build around Weber, Petry and Price still in their prime. Could we get a Stone, Panarin or Karlsson? Sure. Is it likely? No.

Option #2, banking on the future, is a much more attainable goal, even if the results are variable. There are compete-now teams who are looking for established NHL players in exchange for their picks. That's the kind of complementary trade Bergevin has already made, and can make again. No agents, no UFA bidding wars, just GM to GM. This type of negotiations is closer to Bergevin's wheelhouse. There are probably a dozen GMs who would jump at the chance to acquire Jeff Petry or Paul Byron. Want one of them, give us your 1st. No? How about Petry and Benn? Or our own 1st, or a dozen permutations. Bottom line is we have something they want, they have a top 10 pick we want. Do the horse trading and get it done. Bergevin doesn't do well with agents, but he seems comfortable with other GMs, so the pathway to getting top picks and prospects is much more likely than top UFAs.

As I said, the results are variable. We could get a 7th OA pick who ends up being a secondary player. If so, we're no worse off in two/three years because the vet we traded away will be two/three years older and secondary himself. But there's also the chance that 7th OA becomes a star player, in which case we win big.

As to your bigger issue, I agree that if Bergevin can't do his job, neither approach will work and this entire intellectual exercise is moot.

 

[Habs Icing]

Bergevin hasn't shown an ability to sign top players, so this approach is unrealistic.

.

1) You are correct with Bergevin's inability to sign top UFA free agents (except for Radulov but he then lost him 12 months after).

You should both check your emails. Radulov and Petry sent you seasons greetings. (Alzner's greeting was never sent because he had trouble tapping it out on his keyboard. His wife was out visiting hand models.)

Now the question is does two top UFA signings in 6 years qualify as an ability or inability to get UFAs. The only way to answer that is if someone would do the drudge work and research the UFA signings of each team for the last 6 years. I suspect that MB is in the middle of the pack. Just a gut feeling. How many top UFAs were signed in the last 6 years? I doubt it would be substantially more than 60. that would make it 10 top UFAs per each year of MB's tenure. (Two signings X 30 GMs).

This off season could be different for MB when it comes to UFAs. He has the cap space, almost more cap space than any team. No one will outbid him if he wants the player. Also, players talk and I'll bet you dollars to donuts that players are saying that it's a treat to play in Montreal again with players like Domi, Tatar, Weber, Gallagher, Price. The Habs look like a team many players would want to be a part of. After the soap opera in Ottawa you don't think Stone would take seriously an offer from MB?

Of course MB can't do anything about the taxes, the weather and the schooling.

 

[calder candidate]

I admit my conclusions are pure guesses, but they are supported by history. Bergevin -- and every recent Habs GM -- has had trouble getting top UFAs to sign here. Montreal's lousy track record with UFAs extends back beyond Bergevin, so we have to assume our unique market plays a part in making these coveted players even tougher to get. Based on that history, I do think it's unrealistic that a Karlsson or Stone would sign here. And without a premium UFA the Habs simply don't have enough high-end talent to compete right now, if we're hoping to build around Weber, Petry and Price still in their prime. Could we get a Stone, Panarin or Karlsson? Sure. Is it likely? No.

Option #2, banking on the future, is a much more attainable goal, even if the results are variable. There are compete-now teams who are looking for established NHL players in exchange for their picks. That's the kind of complementary trade Bergevin has already made, and can make again. No agents, no UFA bidding wars, just GM to GM. This type of negotiations is closer to Bergevin's wheelhouse. There are probably a dozen GMs who would jump at the chance to acquire Jeff Petry or Paul Byron. Want one of them, give us your 1st. No? How about Petry and Benn? Or our own 1st, or a dozen permutations. Bottom line is we have something they want, they have a top 10 pick we want. Do the horse trading and get it done. Bergevin doesn't do well with agents, but he seems comfortable with other GMs, so the pathway to getting top picks and prospects is much more likely than top UFAs.

As I said, the results are variable. We could get a 7th OA pick who ends up being a secondary player. If so, we're no worse off in two/three years because the vet we traded away will be two/three years older and secondary himself. But there's also the chance that 7th OA becomes a star player, in which case we win big.

As to your bigger issue, I agree that if Bergevin can't do his job, neither approach will work and this entire intellectual exercise is moot.

The only issue is that most team that are picking in the top 10 are also seller so they are not trading there pick to acquire a guy like Petry... Team that should pick over 20 are the team that are buying.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You should both check your emails. Radulov and Petry sent you seasons greetings. (Alzner's greeting was never sent because he had trouble tapping it out on his keyboard. His wife was out visiting hand models.)

Now the question is does two top UFA signings in 6 years qualify as an ability or inability to get UFAs. The only way to answer that is if someone would do the drudge work and research the UFA signings of each team for the last 6 years. I suspect that MB is in the middle of the pack. Just a gut feeling. How many top UFAs were signed in the last 6 years? I doubt it would be substantially more than 60. (Two signings X 30 GMs).

This off season could be different for MB when it comes to UFAs. He has the cap space, almost more cap space than any team. No one will outbid him if he wants the player. Also, players talk and I'll bet you dollars to donuts that players are saying that it's a treat to play in Montreal again with players like Domi, Tatar, Weber, Gallagher, Price. The Habs look like a team many players would want to be a part of. After the soap opera in Ottawa you don't think Stone would take seriously an offer from MB?

Of course MB can't do anything about the taxes, the weather and the schooling.

Agreed to some degree. I find it weird how some squash any attempt at us trying to go after impact UFA's. Why walk the earth with the "we can't" mentality. That mentality is for losers.

 

[Schwang]

There are seven top free agents, who are young enough to be considered prizes. I would guess they are going to 7 different teams.

With our cap space and huge improvement this year, I would guess the odds of being one of the seven sweepstakes winners are over 50%. Not everyone has the will or means to play.

A lot will also depend on how the Habs finish the season and if the make the playoffs. I completely agree that this team can be somewhat of a free agent destination again. Not every team will have the cap space or the roster space. I wouldn’t trade assets. I’d look towards free agency if they want to add. College and Europeans are another option.

 

[Lshap]

The only issue is that most team that are picking in the top 10 are also seller so they are not trading there pick to acquire a guy like Petry... Team that should pick over 20 are the team that are buying.

Forget the trade deadline. It's useless for the exact reason you mention (unless a playoff team wants to trade a top prospect already in their system). We should wait for the off season when some of those bottom teams are looking to compete in 2019/20. Philly, New Jersey, Edmonton, Arizona, St Louis (via Buffalo), Carolina, Florida -- they've already done the picks & prospects route and now need to take the next step and make the playoffs.

 

[Lshap]

You should both check your emails. Radulov and Petry sent you seasons greetings. (Alzner's greeting was never sent because he had trouble tapping it out on his keyboard. His wife was out visiting hand models.)

Now the question is does two top UFA signings in 6 years qualify as an ability or inability to get UFAs. The only way to answer that is if someone would do the drudge work and research the UFA signings of each team for the last 6 years. I suspect that MB is in the middle of the pack. Just a gut feeling. How many top UFAs were signed in the last 6 years? I doubt it would be substantially more than 60. that would make it 10 top UFAs per each year of MB's tenure. (Two signings X 30 GMs).

This off season could be different for MB when it comes to UFAs. He has the cap space, almost more cap space than any team. No one will outbid him if he wants the player. Also, players talk and I'll bet you dollars to donuts that players are saying that it's a treat to play in Montreal again with players like Domi, Tatar, Weber, Gallagher, Price. The Habs look like a team many players would want to be a part of. After the soap opera in Ottawa you don't think Stone would take seriously an offer from MB?

Of course MB can't do anything about the taxes, the weather and the schooling.

Petry is a clear win. Great signing. Radulov was a Faustian bargain. Amazing signing that boomeranged with an epic fail to re-sign. I'd love to be wrong and see Erik frikkin Karlsson or Stone wearing a Habs jersey next year, but with every team in the league salivating over them I ain't holding my breath.

 

[Lshap]

Agreed to some degree. I find it weird how some squash any attempt at us trying to go after impact UFA's. Why walk the earth with the "we can't" mentality. That mentality is for losers.

I'm not squashing anything. Nothing wrong with Bergevin rolling out the red-white-and-blue carpet for a premium UFA. Maybe it's more possible than I think -- the Habs are a lot more attractive a destination this year than last -- but UFA bidding wars haven't been kind to us.

 

[Saundies]

I'm not squashing anything. Nothing wrong with Bergevin rolling out the red-white-and-blue carpet for a premium UFA. Maybe it's more possible than I think -- the Habs are a lot more attractive a destination this year than last -- but UFA bidding wars haven't been kind to us.

The problem is, in order to win these races, we're gonna have to overpay. That's all there is to it. UFA's get premium contracts for a reason, and the pressure playing for Montreal combined with the winter and taxes, we're not on most guys' radar in terms of go-to destinations.

This is a double-edged sword, because overpaying means that the player most likely won't live up to the contract.

 

[Lshap]

The problem is, in order to win these races, we're gonna have to overpay. That's all there is to it. UFA's get premium contracts for a reason, and the pressure playing for Montreal combined with the winter and taxes, we're not on most guys' radar in terms of go-to destinations.

This is a double-edged sword, because overpaying means that the player most likely won't live up to the contract.

Exactly why I don't think it's a realistic outcome. We all know Bergevin will take a shot at the top UFAs, but I'd be really surprised if we end up with one at a fair price.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Exactly why I don't think it's a realistic outcome. We all know Bergevin will take a shot at the top UFAs, but I'd be really surprised if we end up with one at a fair price.

There's only so many realistic players and seven guys trying to find a team.

 

[1909]

I hope MB will stay away from the UFA market.