Prospect Info: Ryan Poehling Part 2

[Habs Icing]

You just said that ppg varies through the season. That means that it's what we call ''non-stationary.'' Do you know what we do with non-stationary things? We ''window'' them. That is, we consider the stats over a relatively recent window, not to predict what will happen in total, but rather what will happen next. More recent data should be more relevant than less recent data, no?
.

You may want to be careful with the language you use. All a window does is indicate what MAY happen next. Not what WILL happen next. Example Pacioretty's window 10 games ago indicated that he MAY not score. Not that he WOULD not score He did score and the statistical window went flying out of a figurative window.

 

[NotProkofievian]

You may want to be careful with the language you use. All a window does is indicate what MAY happen next. Not WILL happen next. Example Pacioretty's window 10 games ago indicated that he MAY not score. Not that he WOULD not score He did score and the statistical window went flying out of a figurative window.

Noted, and granted.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I'm capable of checking the stats for myself, thanks.

1.	Brandon Kruse (F)	Bowling Green State Univ.	28	5	16	21	0.75	28	1
2.	Ian Mitchell (D)	Univ. of Denver	24	2	18	20	0.83	8	7
3.	Shane Bowers (C)	Boston Univ.	24	10	8	18	0.75	10	8
4.	Maxwell Gildon (D)	Univ. of New Hampshire	24	7	11	18	0.75	20	-1
5.	Ryan Poehling (C)	St. Cloud State Univ.	18	6	12	18	1.00	14	6
6.	Brady Tkachuk (C/LW)	Boston Univ.	24	5	13	18	0.75	22	8
7.	Sean Dhooghe (C)	Univ. of Wisconsin	27	6	10	16	0.59	14	0
8.	Joshua Norris (C)	Univ. of Michigan	21	8	7	15	0.71	12	1
9.	Benjamin Mirageas (D)	Providence College	26	7	8	15	0.58	23	4
10.	Grant Mismash (C)	Univ. of North Dakota	24	6	9	15	0.63	25	6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That's U19 NCAA scoring. A lot would be like what Boeser, or Connor did. As we can see, he's rather in the mix.

Only one name there is PPG...

 

[Treb]

Only one name there is PPG...

and has played 3 to 10 games less than everyone on the list. 18 games is a really small sample size.
PS: I do think RP is a good prospect, but I think you might be ganking on NotProkofievian quite a bit.

Poehling is 4th on his team in PPG.

AFAIK the most notable players out of ST. Cloud are Ryan Malone and Mark Hartigan.

 

[montreal]

I've been so impressed with Poehling, but not sure he's going to keep this up as you don't often see 18 year olds at a ppg. Granted there's still a good bit of hockey left for him with the 12 games + playoffs and Frozen four. SCSU is 2 pts out of 1st but it's a tightly packed group with Andy Murray's Western Michigan, and North Dakota all right on their heels which should make for a great end to the regular season since SCSU faces all 3 in the final 6 games.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I've been so impressed with Poehling, but not sure he's going to keep this up as you don't often see 18 year olds at a ppg. Granted there's still a good bit of hockey left for him with the 12 games + playoffs and Frozen four. SCSU is 2 pts out of 1st but it's a tightly packed group with Andy Murray's Western Michigan, and North Dakota all right on their heels which should make for a great end to the regular season since SCSU faces all 3 in the final 6 games.

PPG this year was always my hope for Poehlings season... if you look at Jost last year, he went ppg as an 18 year old, and now he's meddling for the Avs. I think Poehling has at least another year of college ahead of him, and hopefully he can take it to an even higher level next year and hopefully with an expanded role for Team USA at the WJC as well.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Here's a list of U19 guys who have gone PPG in the NCAA stretching back to 2009-2010.

1.	Clayton Keller (C/W)	Boston Univ.	31	21	24	45	1.45	26	15
2.	Adam Fox (D)	Harvard Univ.	35	6	34	40	1.14	6	19
3.	Trent Frederic (C)	Univ. of Wisconsin	30	15	18	33	1.10	32	2
4.	Tyson Jost (C/LW)	Univ. of North Dakota	33	16	19	35	1.06	44	17
5.	Patrick Harper (C)	Boston Univ.	38	13	24	37	0.97	8	6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Brock Boeser (RW)	Univ. of North Dakota	42	27	33	60	1.43	26	45
2.	Colin White (C/RW)	Boston College	37	19	24	43	1.16	46	24
3.	Zach Werenski (D)	Univ. of Michigan	36	11	25	36	1.00	20	5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Jack Eichel (C)	Boston Univ.	40	26	45	71	1.78	28	51
2.	Dylan Larkin (C/LW)	Univ. of Michigan	35	15	32	47	1.34	38	18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Nic Kerdiles (LW)	Univ. of Wisconsin	32	11	22	33	1.03	37	10
2.	Riley Barber (RW)	Miami Univ. (Ohio)	40	15	24	39	0.98	22	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Johnny Gaudreau (LW)	Boston College	44	21	23	44	1.00	10	20
2.	Matthew Peca (C)	Quinnipiac Univ.	39	8	31	39	1.00	12	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	T.J. Tynan (C)	Univ. of Notre Dame	44	23	31	54	1.23	36	19
2.	Jaden Schwartz (LW)	Colorado College	30	17	30	47	1.57	22	-4
3.	Jason Zucker (LW/RW)	Univ. of Denver	40	23	22	45	1.13	59	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Brandon Pirri (RW/C)	RPI (Rensselaer Polytech. Inst.)	39	11	32	43	1.10	67	-3
2.	Jerry D'Amigo (RW/LW)	RPI (Rensselaer Polytech. Inst.)	35	10	24	34	0.97	37	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There are some good names on this list, but most of them smoked the PPG barrier, and the best ones did that in their draft season. There's a lot of riff-raff who were able to accomplish this feat but it's still a positive sign.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I've got a question... If Colorado called up right now and offered Jost for Poehling straight up, would you take it?

I don't think I would. While Jost is a year closer in proximity, the fact Poehling has legit size to him makes him just that much better despite them being similar caliber prospects, due to how Poehling would be able to matchup with the Matthews and Eichels of the division. I think both guys are going to be quality 2nd line Cs one day though.

 

[LastWordArmy]

I'd take Jost.

 

[Mrb1p]

Wed all take Jost. Gotta stop this Pro Poehling crusade.

 

[montreal]

PPG this year was always my hope for Poehlings season... if you look at Jost last year, he went ppg as an 18 year old, and now he's meddling for the Avs. I think Poehling has at least another year of college ahead of him, and hopefully he can take it to an even higher level next year and hopefully with an expanded role for Team USA at the WJC as well.

Jost was a top 10 pick though. If you look at previous Hab NCAA picks, Kristo and Leblanc both had impressive Freshman years especially Leblanc who was on a very weak Harvard team that won only 9 games but he was able to lead the team in goals and pts with 23 in 31 games as an 18 year old. Kristo was on a much better team but still had a good year, finished 3rd in goals, assists and pts with 36 in 41 games.

I'd be happy if Poehling got around 32-33 pts depending on how many games he plays.

 

[WinterLion]

Here's a list of U19 guys who have gone PPG in the NCAA stretching back to 2009-2010.

1.	Clayton Keller (C/W)	Boston Univ.	31	21	24	45	1.45	26	15
2.	Adam Fox (D)	Harvard Univ.	35	6	34	40	1.14	6	19
3.	Trent Frederic (C)	Univ. of Wisconsin	30	15	18	33	1.10	32	2
4.	Tyson Jost (C/LW)	Univ. of North Dakota	33	16	19	35	1.06	44	17
5.	Patrick Harper (C)	Boston Univ.	38	13	24	37	0.97	8	6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Brock Boeser (RW)	Univ. of North Dakota	42	27	33	60	1.43	26	45
2.	Colin White (C/RW)	Boston College	37	19	24	43	1.16	46	24
3.	Zach Werenski (D)	Univ. of Michigan	36	11	25	36	1.00	20	5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Jack Eichel (C)	Boston Univ.	40	26	45	71	1.78	28	51
2.	Dylan Larkin (C/LW)	Univ. of Michigan	35	15	32	47	1.34	38	18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Nic Kerdiles (LW)	Univ. of Wisconsin	32	11	22	33	1.03	37	10
2.	Riley Barber (RW)	Miami Univ. (Ohio)	40	15	24	39	0.98	22	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Johnny Gaudreau (LW)	Boston College	44	21	23	44	1.00	10	20
2.	Matthew Peca (C)	Quinnipiac Univ.	39	8	31	39	1.00	12	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	T.J. Tynan (C)	Univ. of Notre Dame	44	23	31	54	1.23	36	19
2.	Jaden Schwartz (LW)	Colorado College	30	17	30	47	1.57	22	-4
3.	Jason Zucker (LW/RW)	Univ. of Denver	40	23	22	45	1.13	59	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1.	Brandon Pirri (RW/C)	RPI (Rensselaer Polytech. Inst.)	39	11	32	43	1.10	67	-3
2.	Jerry D'Amigo (RW/LW)	RPI (Rensselaer Polytech. Inst.)	35	10	24	34	0.97	37	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There are some good names on this list, but most of them smoked the PPG barrier, and the best ones did that in their draft season. There's a lot of riff-raff who were able to accomplish this feat but it's still a positive sign.

That's a very nice list of players.

 

[WinterLion]

Poehling still needs to finish strong to stay at a PPG. The thing he has on many of those players on that list is that he has pretty good size.

Wow. Trent Frederic. Another great Boston Bruin pick... #29 overall. That team is annoyingly good.

 

[NotProkofievian]

That's a very nice list of players.

It's not a bad list and Poehling, for the moment, is kinda right in the middle of it. There are a few key takeaways. The first is that Poehling is that, while not every player on this list is an NHLer, Poehling's performance so far at the very least preserves the possibility of a solid NHL career. The second is that he's one of the worst goal-scorers of the bunch. The third is that if we had to estimate his offensive output right now, we're probably not looking at a guy who will put up 60 points or more. Only one player on that list has exploded without having destroyed the NCAA by this point: his name is Johnny Gaudreau. He might have more in him, but as of right now, the numbers don't really support that conclusion.

What I'd like out of Poehling is a sort of...Jason Zucker-y level impact offensively, while being a dominating presence down the middle. That's not a bad player to have. It's also not too far off my initial estimate for him: a useful tweener center. But, apparently, I'm Poehling hater #1.

 

[montreal]

Poehling is a playmaker, he would have more pts if paired with last years (and this year) leading scorer Eyssimont who he started the year with but they must want more balanced scoring. He's been with Jackson who has one heck of a release. The other side has been changed up several times, Brodzinski, Fitzgerald, etc.. That said it's not his numbers that are the most impressive, it's the way he plays, he drives so much of the offense (though i've missed a couple of games here and there lately including most of the WJC's)

 

[danyhabsfan]

I'd take Jost very quicky.


I'd be happy to get him for Pacioretty.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I've got a question... If Colorado called up right now and offered Jost for Poehling straight up, would you take it?

I don't think I would. While Jost is a year closer in proximity, the fact Poehling has legit size to him makes him just that much better despite them being similar caliber prospects, due to how Poehling would be able to matchup with the Matthews and Eichels of the division. I think both guys are going to be quality 2nd line Cs one day though.

Interesting question. I think I would take Jost because he is more proven at this stage but I see your point about Poehling and how he can be our Bergeron for us in future years. Ask the same question in about 2 years time.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Poehling is a playmaker, he would have more pts if paired with last years (and this year) leading scorer Eyssimont who he started the year with but they must want more balanced scoring. He's been with Jackson who has one heck of a release. The other side has been changed up several times, Brodzinski, Fitzgerald, etc.. That said it's not his numbers that are the most impressive, it's the way he plays, he drives so much of the offense (though i've missed a couple of games here and there lately including most of the WJC's)

The bolded part is what is impressive indeed... that's what we drafted him. He is a safe bet to make the NHL as a 20 year old and play in the middle 2 center spot. Betting against this would not be a smart gamble.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Wed all take Jost. Gotta stop this Pro Poehling crusade.

God forbid!

 

[WinterLion]

It's not a bad list and Poehling, for the moment, is kinda right in the middle of it. There are a few key takeaways. The first is that Poehling is that, while not every player on this list is an NHLer, Poehling's performance so far at the very least preserves the possibility of a solid NHL career. The second is that he's one of the worst goal-scorers of the bunch. The third is that if we had to estimate his offensive output right now, we're probably not looking at a guy who will put up 60 points or more. Only one player on that list has exploded without having destroyed the NCAA by this point: his name is Johnny Gaudreau. He might have more in him, but as of right now, the numbers don't really support that conclusion.

What I'd like out of Poehling is a sort of...Jason Zucker-y level impact offensively, while being a dominating presence down the middle. That's not a bad player to have. It's also not too far off my initial estimate for him: a useful tweener center. But, apparently, I'm Poehling hater #1.

Dude, just relax. I think you have a realistic view of Poehling, I just don't see why you are beating the dead horse. We get your take. I don't think anyone is expecting him to be the next Boeser, but he is having a great year and it would be great if he becomes the next college guy to come on strong in a few years.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

He's probably going to be the captain for team USA at next year's wjc

 

[The Great Weal]

I've got a question... If Colorado called up right now and offered Jost for Poehling straight up, would you take it?

I don't think I would. While Jost is a year closer in proximity, the fact Poehling has legit size to him makes him just that much better despite them being similar caliber prospects, due to how Poehling would be able to matchup with the Matthews and Eichels of the division. I think both guys are going to be quality 2nd line Cs one day though.

You are insane if you dont take Jost.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

You are insane if you dont take Jost.

We'll see...

 

[jfm133]

Need to be careful with points production. Boeser went from 60 pts in 42 games in his first year to 34 pts in 32 games in his second but he was playing with older guys in his first year, Caggiula and Schmaltz. In the same way Jost benefited from Boeser last year. To be convinced of that, look at the production of Gersich and Poganski this year. They are one year older and they have a good production drop without Boeser and Jost. I don't think Poheling is playing with a player as good as Boeser this year or as good as Schmaltz.

 

[yianik]

To me it's always a negative when a guy doesn't score goals in junior leagues, even if he does rack up assists. It's usually a tip off that there isn't going to be much production of any kind at the NHL level. I think that's why many of us didn't want a guy like Michael McLeod picked by the Habs.

Having said that, the progress a guy makes from year to year is very important and Poehling has done that. Critically, the offensive game that did not appear to exist in the year we drafted him has really come a long way this season and certainly opened my eyes.

While I take things patiently and cautiously, Poehling gives me hope that he can develop into a big 2 way 2C. If he plays a very good 2 way game and can put in 20 goals and hit about 55 points then he would have been a very good selection for us.