Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Previous Poll Punted, Pristine Prospect Procurement Poll Pinned

[Zerotonine]

Not necessarily true not including some of the other factors (escrow, spending USD in the US vs Canada).

Florida's tax rate on lets say $13.5MM is 39.1% all in while in Edmonton you would have an average tax rate of 47.8%. On the same contract 8 years vs 7 years Drai wins in Florida as the tax reduction more than makes up for the 8th year as there is an annual difference in take home pay of $1.175MM per year which over 7 years is $8.22MM or an additional $1.175MM better off than Edmonton's deal for the extra year.

Further with having more cash ahead of time if he isnt spending you can earn a return on it and you get another NHL deal at 37 instead of 38 so you have that added benefit which further impacts being better off in Florida or Nevada.

With the ability to sign that extra year the breakeven is probably closer to we need to sign him for 14.5MM compared to 13.5MM in one of those places if he could only get a $3MM ish deal at 37.

If the oilers don't sign him this summer and know it's gonna be next to impossible to sign him I hope they trade him before season starts. Get the elephant out of the room before the season starts IMO

Could get a haul for him unfortunately neither team In Florida has the assets to trade for him hahaha

 

[Macblender]

The Oilers will be able to give him the money he wants and the 8 year term. Frankly, unless he wants to live in a different location I don't see any reason he would leave. Which contender could give him $14M without gutting their roster? IT would take at least that for a team on a 7 year deal to match the Oilers 8 year deal. The Oilers also have the financial ability to structure the deal in a way that makes it even more lucrative.

The two hang-ups are:
1) uncertainty about the cap in 2025-26. Leon may feel that he is best off waiting to see if there is a big jump. The problem here is how patient the Oilers will be in this situation.
2) Is McDavid going to resign. TO deal with this you essentially promise him that if McDavid leaves you will move him. In fact, if McDavid did leave it would be the right move to rebuild anyway.

IDK depends on what he cares about if it is mostly money. Florida if they moved on from Reinhart, dealt with Knight (trade or buyout) and some older players off the books could probably fit him.

They are cap compliant with a large roster and Knight with a big charge in the minors.

I guess all I am saying is hypothetically Drai isnt going to resign what do we look at moving him for since you cant just let him walk with no assets coming back.

 

[Fourier]

Not necessarily true not including some of the other factors (escrow, spending USD in the US vs Canada).

Florida's tax rate on lets say $13.5MM is 39.1% all in while in Edmonton you would have an average tax rate of 47.8%. On the same contract 8 years vs 7 years Drai wins in Florida as the tax reduction more than makes up for the 8th year as there is an annual difference in take home pay of $1.175MM per year which over 7 years is $8.22MM or an additional $1.175MM better off than Edmonton's deal for the extra year.

Further with having more cash ahead of time if he isnt spending you can earn a return on it and you get another NHL deal at 37 instead of 38 so you have that added benefit which further impacts being better off in Florida or Nevada.

With the ability to sign that extra year the breakeven is probably closer to we need to sign him for 14.5MM compared to 13.5MM in one of those places if he could only get a $3MM ish deal at 37.

The tax situation is much more complicated than this. First off, players pay tax based not only on where they live but also on where they play. So players can pay tax at rates higher than the local rate.
Moreover, there are Canadian tax advantages that can reduce the tax paid considerably. One way this is accomplished is by having a large portion of the salary as a signing bonus and the other is to defer payment in a retirement compensation agreement. Both of these options have the potential to completely negate the tax advantage of the US teams. However, these options are also under investigation by the CRA right now so it is not clear what the outcome will be.

 

[Macblender]

If the oilers don't sign him this summer and know it's gonna be next to impossible to sign him I hope they trade him before season starts. Get the elephant out of the room before the season starts IMO

Could get a haul for him unfortunately neither team In Florida has the assets to trade for him hahaha

IDK we have McDavid so we would want players back.

Tampa - Stamkos is 34 with one more year and is off the books when Drai contract would kick in. Their centers are Stamkos, Point Cirelli. If they can replace a 34 year old stamkos with Drai they would. I would want Cernak or Sergachev back with a center.

Florida - Reinhart is coming up this year and will get $9-10MM to play wing. Drai is an upgrade. They could fit him.

Cap also up like $4MM this year and will be up again decently the year after if I had to guess.

 

[Fourier]

IDK depends on what he cares about if it is mostly money. Florida if they moved on from Reinhart, dealt with Knight (trade or buyout) and some older players off the books could probably fit him.

They are cap compliant with a large roster and Knight with a big charge in the minors.

I guess all I am saying is hypothetically Drai isnt going to resign what do we look at moving him for since you cant just let him walk with no assets coming back.

Florida will need to make a decision on Reinhart well before Leon is available. I'd be shocked if they don't re-sign him. If they do sign him they will not be able to keep there current roster. They also have a number of key contracts up the same year that Leon's deal is up. So while they could make room it would likely be a very different team.

 

[Macblender]

The tax situation is much more complicated than this. First off, players pay tax based not only on where they live but also on where they play. So players can pay tax at rates higher than the local rate.
Moreover, there are Canadian tax advantages that can reduce the tax paid considerably. One way this is accomplished is by having a large portion of the salary as a signing bonus and the other is to defer payment in a retirement compensation agreement. Both of these options have the potential to completely negate the tax advantage of the US teams. However, these options are also under investigation by the CRA right now so it is not clear what the outcome will be.

For sure and I basically took the back of the napkin approach. The same could be said on bonusing in the US then no? If I get a large signing bonus in Florida and my earned income throughout the year is minimal then my taxation hypothetically could get pretty close to state tax no? (I dont know just a thought). Edit: I looked this up and if structured properly yes you can having it owing in the state you play in so this would kind of quash that disadvantage I would think.

For RCAs how would that impact things if he retired back to Europe are they even beneficial in that instance? Again dont know.

I dont think it is even about negating the impact fully as if it is close it depends what Drai values.

Anyways I guess my point of conversation I was trying to start was if he is chasing a lower tax place (lots of examples to Vegas and Florida recently) or even just indicates he isnt sure he is signing here before July 1 do we trade him and if so what out there would interest you.

 

[Macblender]

Florida will need to make a decision on Reinhart well before Leon is available. I'd be shocked if they don't re-sign him. If they do sign him they will not be able to keep there current roster. They also have a number of key contracts up the same year that Leon's deal is up. So while they could make room it would likely be a very different team.

Yup but if we had Friedman/Dreger etc and some rumblings Drai was going to be hard to sign and internally we didnt think we was going to you can front run that in a sign and trade I would think. By the time Drai's deal is up Cap will be up $9MM or so probably and the key cogs in the core besides Ekblad are locked in besides Reinhart/Verhaege/Bennet so it is really does the cap increase let us retain 3 of them with Knight gone and swap the highest paid one for an upgrade. IDK may or may not work.

 

[Fourier]

For sure and I basically took the back of the napkin approach. The same could be said on bonusing in the US then no? If I get a large signing bonus in Florida and my earned income throughout the year is minimal then my taxation hypothetically could get pretty close to state tax no? (I dont know just a thought).

For RCAs how would that impact things if he retired back to Europe are they even beneficial in that instance? Again dont know.

I dont think it is even about negating the impact fully as if it is close it depends what Drai values.

Anyways I guess my point of conversation I was trying to start was if he is chasing a lower tax place (lots of examples to Vegas and Florida recently) or even just indicates he isnt sure he is signing here before July 1 do we trade him and if so what out there would interest you.

There are way too many variables to determine the actual tax impact. The point though is that the tax advantage can be reduced substantially so that the extra year in Edmonton becomes significant.

I can't see him leaving for what could amount to an average of a couple of $100K per year if that. If he definitely wants to move on there is not much you can do about it. But that is actually fairly rare, especially for players on contending teams. And even more so given the specific situation he is in in Edmonton playing with McDavid.

 

[Fourier]

Yup but if we had Friedman/Dreger etc and some rumblings Drai was going to be hard to sign and internally we didnt think we was going to you can front run that in a sign and trade I would think. By the time Drai's deal is up Cap will be up $9MM or so probably and the key cogs in the core besides Ekblad are locked in besides Reinhart/Verhaege/Bennet so it is really does the cap increase let us retain 3 of them with Knight gone and swap the highest paid one for an upgrade. IDK may or may not work.

But why does Florida pay Draisaitl $14.5M say so they have to let Reinhart or Verhaege walk for nothing and basically kill their depth? They could probably have both for only a couple million more than Leon combined leaving them with a lot of space to fill out their roster. They will already be losing depth.

 

[Macblender]

But why does Florida pay Draisaitl $14.5M say so they have to let Reinhart or Verhaege walk for nothing and basically kill their depth? They could probably have both for only a couple million more than Leon combined leaving them with a lot of space to fill out their roster. They will already be losing depth.

Depends if they can get him for $13-14MM and Reinhart is $10MM. If there was wind Drai was available early enough could potentially sign and trade Reinhart but that is doubtful. You can buyout Knight and save 2.5MM on the cap compared to if you buried the contract again - numbers in the AHL are not great.

They are pretty much the same team with Drai instead of Reinhart IDK. Depends on if you can get something for Reinhart.

Cap is up $9MM by the time Drai new deal kicks in and they need to eat less into that next years with Drai's cap compared to Reinhart new deal. Really depends at the end of the day it isnt really giving up depth next year it is upgrading on player and saving cap to do it depending on the deal.

Either way the perspective is we cannot lose him for nothing if we dont think he is resigning and the NHL is becoming a players league where they pick where they want to go within reason.

 

[Mr Positive]

It's fruitless to guess at what will happen with Drai

Even with Dreger's comments, from what I read he said that the Oilers won't want to sign him, not the other way around. He compared the situation to Kane and Toews, and the cap percent would put Drai at 14-15 million aav

 

[McDrai]

I wouldn’t mind signing Artemy Pleshkov and see what he can do in the AHL or ECHL next season. I know he’s quite small but his numbers are insane:

Russian goalie Artemi Pleshkov sets pro hockey world record with 124-save game

 

[MessierII]

I wouldn’t mind signing Artemy Pleshkov and see what he can do in the AHL or ECHL next season. I know he’s quite small but his numbers are insane:

Russian goalie Artemi Pleshkov sets pro hockey world record with 124-save game

.926 in 10 games in the K is not insane. To put it in perspective Mikko Koskinen the year before signing here had .937 in 29 games. Pleshkov doesn’t even have the best numbers on his team.

 

[GOilers88]

Has the mobile site become laggy as hell for anyone else? For the last two days it's like when a deadline deal overwhelms the servers and its all goes to hell.

 

[Shanahanigans]

An underrated unforced Holland error: Michael Kesselring, a RD, is playing 2nd/3rd pair minutes for the Coyotes, and is playing it very well. +5 on a team that is -27 in goal differential. 55% on ice GF, over 50% xGF on the 28th place team in the league. Everyone who watched Bakersfield last year was upset that he was included in the Bjugstad trade, as he was NHL ready.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Florida will need to make a decision on Reinhart well before Leon is available. I'd be shocked if they don't re-sign him. If they do sign him they will not be able to keep there current roster. They also have a number of key contracts up the same year that Leon's deal is up. So while they could make room it would likely be a very different team.

I feel the Predators would be a team to watch on the Draisaitl front.

a) They have a desperate need for a #1 centre
b) they are good
c) they have boatloads of cap space this summer with Barrie, Zucker and Beauvillier coming off the books and the Ryan Johansen retention coming off the books the year after.
d) They watched Draisaitl score on them for fun.
e) no tax state

 

[Oilslick941611]

I dont think he is resigning personally

Hes got " I wanna play in California" written all over him. imo of course.

 

[Soundwave]

Hes got " I wanna play in California" written all over him. imo of course.

I honestly don't get that sense at all. Harp on him all you want, but I see a guy who does want to win pretty badly and I don't really see a guy who wants to find out what hockey life it like without Connor McDavid any time soon.

He wants to win a Cup with McDavid IMO, McDavid *has* to win a Cup, it's not even a non-option because of the pressure that comes with being a generational talent.

 

[Oilslick941611]

I honestly don't get that sense at all. Harp on him all you want, but I see a guy who does want to win pretty badly and I don't really see a guy who wants to find out what hockey life it like without Connor McDavid any time soon.

He wants to win a Cup with McDavid IMO, McDavid *has* to win a Cup, it's not even a non-option because of the pressure that comes with being a generational talent.

Im not talking about his on ice play, Im going off his instagram and wannabe model pictures and the actress/model wife.

 

[Soundwave]

Im not talking about his on ice play, Im going off his instagram and wannabe model pictures and the actress/model wife.

Don't think that really means much, for one she's a Canadian girl and she lives in Canada.

Secondly, remember when everyone and their grandma was saying no way Evander Kane would resign here because his current wife was an actual LA based model? Well they did, not only that I'm kind of surprised to see that they live in Edmonton even in the off-season for large chunks of it from the looks of things.

 

[Heavy Dee]

An underrated unforced Holland error: Michael Kesselring, a RD, is playing 2nd/3rd pair minutes for the Coyotes, and is playing it very well. +5 on a team that is -27 in goal differential. 55% on ice GF, over 50% xGF on the 28th place team in the league. Everyone who watched Bakersfield last year was upset that he was included in the Bjugstad trade, as he was NHL ready.

He asked for a trade

Hes got " I wanna play in California" written all over him. imo of course.

Send him Anaheim for a package involving Carlsson then.

What we can't do is what Calgary did with Gaudreau

 

[Soundwave]

McDavid's fiance and Draisaitl's girlfriend are very close too, they go on trips together and from what I understand Draisaitl's girlfriend will be a bridesmaid for Lauren.

Believe that is Lauren and Celeste there in the middle.

I don't really get the sense that these two players or even their social circles really want to be split apart, so that's a pretty substantial advantage, but the Oilers are going to have to hire someone really good as their next GM I think to convince them that this is where they should stay.

 

[Despote]

What an awful deadline Holland had. Other competitors like Dallas, Colorado, Carolina are torcing the league and look unstoppable with their new additions. It's as if Holland's apathy hamstringed the entire team. They're playing like absolute shit post deadline.

 

[Soundwave]

What an awful deadline Holland had. Other competitors like Dallas, Colorado, Carolina are torcing the league and look unstoppable with their new additions. It's as if Holland's apathy hamstringed the entire team. They're playing like absolute shit post deadline.

Man would Anthony Duclair ever look pretty good right about now (if you didn't want to get too slow with Toffoli). Probably would have required an extra 3rd to get some retention but still would have been a decent price.

Also man this site is really slow, which makes you notice more and more how obtrusive the ads here are.

 

[alphahelix]

He asked for a trade

Yeah, but of course that was only because we gave him 0 playing time or respect. Given the circumstance, I dont think its a bad move assumong we signed Bjugstad... but we didnt, even though he wanted to