Rumour, Trade & Free Agent Discussion

[Mortimer Snerd]

Because to me it doesn't seem that ppl are interested in 2 strong lines they just want more for Laine and Ehlers. And right now we have two productive lines. Yet, ppl prefer Connor Eakins and Wheeler play only 15 minutes.

How could you so completely misinterpret the comparisons between Connor and Ehlers, even though I know it has been spelled out to you in detail?

Wheeler is not among our top 3 wingers. He is only going to decline.

 

[surixon]

he is also the GM that handed Little the 30M+ contract.

Yup, a good example of why you look up aging players at your own peril. He was a very good player at the time of signing the deal but started a fairly steep decline the year after.

 

[surixon]

Because to me it doesn't seem that ppl are interested in 2 strong lines they just want more for Laine and Ehlers. And right now we have two productive lines. Yet, ppl prefer Connor Eakins and Wheeler play only 15 minutes.

I think most just want more balanced ice times. Play each of our top 2 lines 18-19 minutes a game. It's what Tampa does and hasn't hurt Kucherov or Stamkos's ability to put up big point totals.

 

[Adam da bomb]

How could you so completely misinterpret the comparisons between Connor and Ehlers, even though I know it has been spelled out to you in detail?

Wheeler is not among out top 3 wingers. He is only going to decline.

You call it misinterpreting I call it arguing with the narrative on the board.

 

[Whileee]

Wouldn't trade Gus and Samberg for outside anything other then a Number 1 D man or Number 1 center. I think they are both low top tier prospects IMO. You don't move them for depth. Both guys could easily feature next year. I am leaning that with Gus's recent play in the AHL that he is trending up from 3C to 2C in the future.

Agree. If Gus continues to improve his speed, his stock increases substantially. He's very smart, has good vision, a good release, and works his tail off. Harkins is another potential C that has really taken off. It's not out of the question for one of those young prospects to "hit" as a 2C, as Cirelli has done unexpectedly for TB.

Samberg could be a very solid top 4 LHD as early as next season.

 

[DRW204]

Because to me it doesn't seem that ppl are interested in 2 strong lines they just want more for Laine and Ehlers. And right now we have two productive lines. Yet, ppl prefer Connor Eakins and Wheeler play only 15 minutes.

I am not sure how you interpret that from my posts. But both things could be true, more ice-time away from Little for Ehlers and Laine would probably have helped us score more and scoring more raises our chances of winning. I definitely do think Ehlers and this team can benefit from top line minutes though. He is our most efficient player currently given his TOI, and whenever he's played on the top line that line has performed really well, better than with Connor methinks. I think given his 5v5 stats/TOI, it is reasonable to project him being able to produce better than Connor on Scheifele's LW, he already is right now playing with a myriad of Cs this year.

From '17-'19 ELL was probably our least effective line in the top 6. CSW was good in 17-18 but i do not think they were in the upper-echelon of top lines in terms of out scoring the opposition (ie to the level of BOS or TBL's top line, however i could be wrong). 18-19 they definitely were not a great top line, and then you have ELL who were not posting great results either at the beginning of the year. ESW was the most effective top-line we had all of last year AINEC. I think having ESL / CLW nets a more productive top 6 compared to CSW/ELL.

There's a chance that having ESL / CLW would also have saved us from spending 1sts at two consecutive TDL's for top 6 C upgrades as well.

 

[Whileee]

Follow this account:

guy has multiple viewings of a lot of the Jets prospects along with statistical analysis. might not agree with all his takes or opinion

A few points from the table...

KVes is taking plenty of shots, which is a good sign for him.

Samberg with about 2.5 shots per game, so likely a bit unlucky not to have more goals and points.

Heinola isn't generating much offense, but +6.3 reCF% is very impressive. He's also had a high volume of shots, so maybe a bit unlucky in point production.

 

[DRW204]

A few points from the table...

KVes is taking plenty of shots, which is a good sign for him.

Samberg with about 2.5 shots per game, so likely a bit unlucky not to have more goals and points.

Heinola isn't generating much offense, but +6.3 reCF% is very impressive. He's also had a high volume of shots, so maybe a bit unlucky in point production.

perunovich also runs the pp for U of minnesota

 

[Huffer]

Agree. If Gus continues to improve his speed, his stock increases substantially. He's very smart, has good vision, a good release, and works his tail off. Harkins is another potential C that has really taken off. It's not out of the question for one of those young prospects to "hit" as a 2C, as Cirelli has done unexpectedly for TB.

Samberg could be a very solid top 4 LHD as early as next season.

Roslovic was also taken in the same draft as Cirelli and outproduced him during their AHL times. It's not impossible that Roslovic still has more in him as well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You call it misinterpreting I call it arguing with the narrative on the board.

Well, for a start, the board doesn't have a narrative. We are just a bunch of individuals. Some are saying some similar things, sometimes. But even the ones saying those similar things will disagree with one another to some extent.

Second, you are being so quick to jump to the defense of Connor every time Ehlers gets mentioned that it is hard to discuss it with you sensibly. You are being too defensive. Sorry, but you and I have discussed this quite a bit and I find your defensiveness gets in the way. When I say that I want ESL as our first line, it is not an attack on Connor. It is just what I said, no more. It means that I like that combination. It says nothing at all about any other player. There is no need to defend Connor. He is one of the best Jets and one of the most liked on this board.

All Connor has done is score 36 goals, keeping Scheifele and Wheeler afloat. How can I not like that? But Connor is weak defensively. Again, not attacking Connor, just stating a fact. Like saying that he is not perfect. Scheifele and Wheeler are also weak defensively. That makes them a poor combination. They get hemmed in the D zone a lot. Actually, I think they have been better lately. Hope that continues. I think that Scheifele may be paying more attention in the D zone.

I think Connor might actually do even better with another C, depending on who it is. One who is better defensively and will therefore get Connor more opportunities. Or maybe not. We would need to see it tried.

When we see Ehlers having a very good game is it an attack on Connor to question why he didn't get more than 12 minutes TOI when he was playing so well? If I question the ice-time distribution will you leap in to defend Connor?

Even when I go so far as to suggest that of Laine, Ehlers and Connor, Connor is the first I would trade, it is not an attack on Connor. I would not be inclined to trade any of the three. If I pick Connor first it is because I think he will bring the best return. Goals talk and he has them. It is anything but an attack on him. It is because he will be perceived as more valuable. You can disagree with that idea. There is plenty of room to discuss the merits. Maybe you think his production would be harder to replace. Or you like his intangibles better, whatever that might mean. Maybe you just enjoy watching him too much. Just don't do it based on the idea that I am attacking your guy. Because I am not.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

We are just a bunch of individuals.

I'm not.

And in case you don't get the reference...

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Agree. If Gus continues to improve his speed, his stock increases substantially. He's very smart, has good vision, a good release, and works his tail off. Harkins is another potential C that has really taken off. It's not out of the question for one of those young prospects to "hit" as a 2C, as Cirelli has done unexpectedly for TB.

Samberg could be a very solid top 4 LHD as early as next season.

This is my thoughts on Gus watching him progress along this year. Starts out here and gets in a few games and looks ok. His defensive game is top notch even at the NHL level. Really good in the Dot at this level as well. Goes to the WJC and centers there top line with 2 high end scoring wingers. Those 2 guys were scoring machines and he did a lot of the dirty work and his coach really trusted him. He comes back to the AHL starts off a little slow but he is getting the NA style. His coaches down there trust him completely and now he is starting to produce at a nice clip. Doing all of this while still only 19. I think if his progression keeps going doesn't it make sense to see what he can do playing with 2 dynamic wingers who might need a defensive conscience? He may never be that 70 point center but I would take a 50 point guy that plays solid defensively while allowing Laine and Ehlers the freedom to do what they do best.

 

[surixon]

This is my thoughts on Gus watching him progress along this year. Starts out here and gets in a few games and looks ok. His defensive game is top notch even at the NHL level. Really good in the Dot at this level as well. Goes to the WJC and centers there top line with 2 high end scoring wingers. Those 2 guys were scoring machines and he did a lot of the dirty work and his coach really trusted him. He comes back to the AHL starts off a little slow but he is getting the NA style. His coaches down there trust him completely and now he is starting to produce at a nice clip. Doing all of this while still only 19. I think if his progression keeps going doesn't it make sense to see what he can do playing with 2 dynamic wingers who might need a defensive conscience? He may never be that 70 point center but I would take a 50 point guy that plays solid defensively while allowing Laine and Ehlers the freedom to do what they do best.

Kariya and Selanne played a good chunk of their career with a gritty defensive C in Ruchin and a lot of success so it is the type of fit that could work.

Having said that I really like how Gus is driving play at the AHL level this year. If he keeps working on his skating while refining his offensive game I think a player like Backlund is a pretty solid projection.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Well, for a start, the board doesn't have a narrative. We are just a bunch of individuals. Some are saying some similar things, sometimes. But even the ones saying those similar things will disagree with one another to some extent.

Second, you are being so quick to jump to the defense of Connor every time Ehlers gets mentioned that it is hard to discuss it with you sensibly. You are being too defensive. Sorry, but you and I have discussed this quite a bit and I find your defensiveness gets in the way. When I say that I want ESL as our first line, it is not an attack on Connor. It is just what I said, no more. It means that I like that combination. It says nothing at all about any other player. There is no need to defend Connor. He is one of the best Jets and one of the most liked on this board.

All Connor has done is score 36 goals, keeping Scheifele and Wheeler afloat. How can I not like that? But Connor is weak defensively. Again, not attacking Connor, just stating a fact. Like saying that he is not perfect. Scheifele and Wheeler are also weak defensively. That makes them a poor combination. They get hemmed in the D zone a lot. Actually, I think they have been better lately. Hope that continues. I think that Scheifele may be paying more attention in the D zone.

I think Connor might actually do even better with another C, depending on who it is. One who is better defensively and will therefore get Connor more opportunities. Or maybe not. We would need to see it tried.

When we see Ehlers having a very good game is it an attack on Connor to question why he didn't get more than 12 minutes TOI when he was playing so well? If I question the ice-time distribution will you leap in to defend Connor?

Even when I go so far as to suggest that of Laine, Ehlers and Connor, Connor is the first I would trade, it is not an attack on Connor. I would not be inclined to trade any of the three. If I pick Connor first it is because I think he will bring the best return. Goals talk and he has them. It is anything but an attack on him. It is because he will be perceived as more valuable. You can disagree with that idea. There is plenty of room to discuss the merits. Maybe you think his production would be harder to replace. Or you like his intangibles better, whatever that might mean. Maybe you just enjoy watching him too much. Just don't do it based on the idea that I am attacking your guy. Because I am not.

I constantly say that Ehlers should get more playing time and that he should get lots of 4 on 4 time as well as 3 on 3 time. I have argued that he should be on the powerplay over Wheeler. In the past you have said Ehlers is vastly better than Connor your words not mine. I have even said why trade Ehlers or Connor since they have both signed here long term at really affordable rates and you said because we need that 2c. I argued that no with Laine they are able to take a guy like Eakins and fill in for the needs offensively and defensively. Ehlers would be perfect at centre but he can't handle the big heavy players down-low that's where Eakins steps up with his big body and fills that one tiny hole. Ehlers drives the line is amazing defensively and is a great player. Connor can not carry players as well as Ehlers can.

 

[voyageur]

Yup, a good example of why you look up aging players at your own peril. He was a very good player at the time of signing the deal but started a fairly steep decline the year after.

That's bullshit. But carry on.

 

[surixon]

That's bullshit. But carry on.

What is bullshit about it? Many contracts to players in their 30's don't work out due to natural decline due to age.

Little signed his deal in September 2017.

• He was coming off a 47 points in 59 games (Paced 65 points)
• Prior to that year he had three strait years pacing 60 points and up
• His two years since signing that deal he has scored 43 and 41 points in full seasons (roughly a 30% decrease in production in the year preceding the deal)

Do you believe Chevy expected a 40 point player when signing that deal or do you think he was banking on Bryan being closer tot eh 60 point player he was prior to the deal?

Chevy's actions at the deadlines I think tells you how happy he is with how that deal worked out. You win some and you lose many when you sign aging players, buyer beware.

 

[voyageur]

What is bullshit about it? Many contracts to players in their 30's don't work out due to natural decline due to age.

Little signed his deal in September 2017.

• He was coming off a 47 points in 59 games (Paced 65 points)
• Prior to that year he had three strait years pacing 60 points and up
• His two years since signing that deal he has scored 43 and 41 points in full seasons (roughly a 30% decrease in production in the year preceding the deal)

Do you believe Chevy expected a 40 point player when signing that deal or do you think he was banking on Bryan being closer tot eh 60 point player he was prior to the deal?

Chevy's actions at the deadlines I think tells you how happy he is with how that deal worked out. You win some and you lose many when you sign aging players, buyer beware.

The team is better with Little than without. We had to find 2 players this year (Shore for faceoffs, Eakin for scoring) to replace him. His production declined as soon as he was taken off the top line, specifically Wheeler, coinciding with Scheifele's incline. Less PP time. I am pretty sure Chevy knew he was getting a 40-50 (his projection this year) point centre when he signed him to that deal. Remember that the value of centres goes up as the Cap increases. If he is a 3rd line centre still producing 40 points in the back half, that's a good deal. Then there is the faceoffs, penalty killing, and experience that he brings to the team. The way the team evolved did not make him an ideal #2. And getting production out of the Ehlers-Laine led to both those trades, as well as injuries (Lowry in 2018, Scheifele last year).

I see your point. Maybe I am just reacting to the way Little gets trashed sometimes. Compare his value to Perreault for instance, and it really doesn't look bad, long term. I am happy we signed him to that deal, and I feel like he deserved to be rewarded for everything he has done for this team.

 

[surixon]

The team is better with Little than without. We had to find 2 players this year (Shore for faceoffs, Eakin for scoring) to replace him. His production declined as soon as he was taken off the top line, specifically Wheeler, coinciding with Scheifele's incline. Less PP time. I am pretty sure Chevy knew he was getting a 40-50 (his projection this year) point centre when he signed him to that deal. Remember that the value of centres goes up as the Cap increases. If he is a 3rd line centre still producing 40 points in the back half, that's a good deal. Then there is the faceoffs, penalty killing, and experience that he brings to the team. The way the team evolved did not make him an ideal #2. And getting production out of the Ehlers-Laine led to both those trades, as well as injuries (Lowry in 2018, Scheifele last year).

I see your point. Maybe I am just reacting to the way Little gets trashed sometimes. Compare his value to Perreault for instance, and it really doesn't look bad, long term. I am happy we signed him to that deal, and I feel like he deserved to be rewarded for everything he has done for this team.

I wasn't meaning to trash him. Just stating that his production declined mightily after the deal and in hindsight the contract doesn't look like it will age very well. Cap hit isn't terrible but its the term that is killer. Guy is 32 years old and has 4 years left on the deal.

I agree that the team is better with him on the ice and he is still is a contributor on and off the ice. He has just aged out of being an elite 2C and is probably best served centering a third scoring line against softer opposition.

 

[voyageur]

I wasn't meaning to trash him. Just stating that his production declined mightily after the deal and in hindsight the contract doesn't look like it will age very well. Cap hit isn't terrible but its the term that is killer. Guy is 32 years old and has 4 years left on the deal.

I agree that the team is better with him on the ice and he is still is a contributor on and off the ice. He has just aged out of being an elite 2C and is probably best served centering a third scoring line against softer opposition.

Fair enough.

I'm a Bryan Little fan. Liked him from the moment he switched his number to honour Dale Hawerchuk. Hope he gets a ceremony here one day.

 

[surixon]

Fair enough.

I'm a Bryan Little fan. Liked him from the moment he switched his number to honour Dale Hawerchuk. Hope he gets a ceremony here one day.

I am too, was my favorite player until some of the new guard took over.

I like smart/positional players that maybe don't look super fancy on the ice but due to timing and smarts and some nice talent contribute. It's largely why JoMo is my current favorite player.

 

[tbcwpg]

How could you so completely misinterpret the comparisons between Connor and Ehlers, even though I know it has been spelled out to you in detail?

Wheeler is not among out top 3 wingers. He is only going to decline.

If we say Wheeler is only going to decline each year, eventually it'll be right I guess. His play was predicted to fall off a cliff this offseason, like it was last offseason. Decisions about who plays with who aren't always based on who is better that whom.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I constantly say that Ehlers should get more playing time and that he should get lots of 4 on 4 time as well as 3 on 3 time. I have argued that he should be on the powerplay over Wheeler. In the past you have said Ehlers is vastly better than Connor your words not mine. I have even said why trade Ehlers or Connor since they have both signed here long term at really affordable rates and you said because we need that 2c. I argued that no with Laine they are able to take a guy like Eakins and fill in for the needs offensively and defensively. Ehlers would be perfect at centre but he can't handle the big heavy players down-low that's where Eakins steps up with his big body and fills that one tiny hole. Ehlers drives the line is amazing defensively and is a great player. Connor can not carry players as well as Ehlers can.

I don't think I ever used the words vastly better. I have said that he is clearly better, not the same. But that is not an attack on Connor either. I have said many times that none of our top 3 young wingers should be traded. But if we trade any of them, it better be for a 2C.

Eakin does not have a big body at 6', 183. He is ~10 lbs heavier than Ehlers. I would like a 2C who is 6'2+ and 200+ lbs. Maybe we should be developing Laine as a C.

"Ehlers drives the line is amazing defensively and is a great player. Connor can not carry players as well as Ehlers can", we agree. Both are great players. Connor is so dangerous in the O zone. We need to find a way to get him more time there.

 

[Whileee]

If we say Wheeler is only going to decline each year, eventually it'll be right I guess. His play was predicted to fall off a cliff this offseason, like it was last offseason. Decisions about who plays with who aren't always based on who is better that whom.

Based on adjusted shot metrics (RAPM model xGF) Wheeler is having his best season since 2016/17.

 

[Whileee]

The CSW line has been really strong since being reunited. They are driving play and outscoring their matchups.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If we say Wheeler is only going to decline each year, eventually it'll be right I guess. His play was predicted to fall off a cliff this offseason, like it was last offseason. Decisions about who plays with who aren't always based on who is better that whom.

I didn't say he would fall off a cliff. I said he would decline, which he is. Slowly so far.

No, it isn't just who is better than whom. It should be about the net best for the team. I'm sure Maurice thinks that is what he is doing. I don't have to agree.