Rumour, Trade, FA 2020-2021 COVID edition

[Whileee]

I don’t see it moving quickly for Chevy

That might not be a bad thing. Rushing decisions isn't always the right approach, and it might be good to wait and see what opportunities emerge. Chevy tends to use the pressure of time / deadlines for negotiations, and waits to get his return on trades.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

@Whileee
Highly doubt it, but I could see them making a push to trade for him.

Re: OS for Pulock

Trades may have been made in recent years because of the possibility, or threat, of an OS. But, in that case, what could we offer NYI that would be light on cap and still have enough value? Would #10 be enough/right for them? Would we want to move that pick?

 

[Hunter368]

NHL GMs preparing for new economic realities brought on by COVID-19

Interesting read on how GM’s and players are expecting Covid to effect the cap and spending......going to be some surprising trades, non qual players, etc

 

[Whileee]

Re: OS for Pulock

Trades may have been made in recent years because of the possibility, or threat, of an OS. But, in that case, what could we offer NYI that would be light on cap and still have enough value? Would #10 be enough/right for them? Would we want to move that pick?

My guess is that the Jets won't want to move the #10, and the Isles might not see it as enough. Configuration of a trade for Pulock would be different. My guess is that the Isles would want Ehlers or Connor, moreso than Laine (for cap reasons).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

@Joe Hallenback
There is speculation that the Isles want a goal scorer. I think Laine fits the bill. I also wonder if we do them a "favor" and take some salary from them. Here me out before you shout me down lol

Laine to the Isles

for
Pulock + Beauvillier + Ladd + Wahlstrom and add ons. I just don't know what would be worth it to take on Ladds contract

With still 3 years to run and no sign he could be LTIR'd taking on Ladd's contract is substantial - from both sides of the deal.

That's a pretty good package you have listed. With Ladd there, I think we need to add next year's NYI 1st. The problem then is just that we still don't have a 2C. Maybe we draft one with #10, play Wheeler there for a couple of years until he develops. Wahlstrom would be needed in the top 6.

Connor - Scheifele - Wahlstrom
Beauvillier - Wheeler - Ehlers

I was very impressed with Beauvillier in the PO. He is a better line driver than Connor, so maybe swap those 2. Ehlers could create a lot of chances for Connor.

It would be tough if Wahlstrom is not quite ready. We would need to use Rosie there. That is not too much of a stretch though, at least for a short time. Who knows, maybe he thrives there with better linemates.

What do the Isles look like after that trade? Not bad actually. They have replacements. And they would have some cap flexibility.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

There is no way Laine can justify a 10 plus million contract. I cant see any team giving him that amount.

I think with the cap the way it is and is going to be that is probably true. I also think that some of the contracts out there really skewered the market. Marner,Panarin and then the low end like Skinner. He falls in somewhere between 9 and 11 per year. If he signs for 9 great. But I think its likely he gets 10.5 and I think someone pays it

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

@Whileee
I would want at least one more prime piece, especially if the Jets take Ladd's contract. The financial cost of buying him out wouldn't be an issue, but he would leave a cap hit of over $4.8M on the books for 3 more seasons. If the Jets did this, they would need to be looking at a youth movement over the next few years, because the cap situation would be a constraint over the next 3 years. I don't think that's a great idea.

Send Ladd to the AHL, save a bit over 1 mil in cap hit. Suck it up at 4.5 for 3 years.

It would hurt but it is doable. I don't like the 3 year term there, but that is what makes the whole thing happen. Laine's is the only big raise we are currently looking at over that period. Pulock would need to be paid this year and Beauvillier next year, so it is still a bit tight.

 

[surixon]

I think with the cap the way it is and is going to be that is probably true. I also think that some of the contracts out there really skewered the market. Marner,Panarin and then the low end like Skinner. He falls in somewhere between 9 and 11 per year. If he signs for 9 great. But I think its likely he gets 10.5 and I think someone pays it

Only 3 wingers make that and no offense to Laine all of them were much more proven players. Only the Marner deal is out of whack.

 

[Bob E]

I really think they don't want to pay him what he wants. If he was a center driving play he would be signed long term already. I don't think they want to pay a winger that money going forward. They have 3 Wingers under contract at reasonable commitment. Adding a 11+ contract for Laine would skewer that greatly. Especially with a non growing cap. Look at the leafs and that Marner contract. It just hinders them from doing anything else, so much so that they have to look at moving Nylander to do anything

If he’s looking for Marner or Panarin money and term, then he can be someone else’s problem.

If he’s looking for Aho or Rantanen money and term, then I’m totally on board to sign him long term.

I easy choose Laine over Wheeler, when that time comes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My guess is that the Jets won't want to move the #10, and the Isles might not see it as enough. Configuration of a trade for Pulock would be different. My guess is that the Isles would want Ehlers or Connor, moreso than Laine (for cap reasons).

But any of those 3 for Pulock doesn't gain them any cap space. There would need to be a much bigger deal.

I'm not even considering Ehlers at this point. He brings too much beyond just goals for himself that we don't have any replacement for.

What could we get from them for Connor that would solve their cap problem? Pulock + Nelson? We need to add. Pulock + Beauvillier? Is that enough cap moved for them? I think it would be close. It removes the threat of an OS. Is it enough value for them? I think it is short. Would our 2nd be enough value?

I would do;
Connor + #40
for
Pulock + Beauvillier

Not sure Isles would though. Is it close? I would not do #10 or next year's first either.

 

[surixon]

Ive heard the same thing regarding DeMelo contract. Both sides have a desire to extend, dollars hasn’t been a big issue......but term has been an issue. DeMelo wants longer term then the Jets do.

I have a hard time investing 5 plus years in a pure defensive dmen. Given what Edmundson just got, I would think a 4 year deal at 3.5 million per would be fair.

 

[MardyBum]

Pretty soon people are going to be speculating Laine wants 15 million a year for 15 years and just break the CBA by sheer force of greed.

 

[None]

NHL GMs preparing for new economic realities brought on by COVID-19

Interesting read on how GM’s and players are expecting Covid to effect the cap and spending......going to be some surprising trades, non qual players, etc

I think this discussion has already been had but I wonder what RFA players Chevy would consider tough to let go unqualified?

Jets RFAs
Forwards:
Jack Roslovic
Mason Appleton
Jansen Harkins
Michael Spacek
CJ Suess

Defensemen:
Sami Niku
Nelson Nogier

Roslovic and Harkins are the only ones that I see as a lock to get qualified, tough decisions to me sounds like they could decide to let one ore more of Appleton, Suess, or Niku go unqualified.
The rest I imagine aren't really tough decisions from an asset standpoint, maybe from a personal attachment. I think a lot (all?) would probably be cheaper than signing outside players if they're all in the AHL. Niku, Roslovic, Harkins, and Appleton would all be making more than league minimum if they were on the Jets though.

 

[BatVader]

My guess is that the Jets won't want to move the #10, and the Isles might not see it as enough. Configuration of a trade for Pulock would be different. My guess is that the Isles would want Ehlers or Connor, moreso than Laine (for cap reasons).

But Connor isn’t available, and a Ehlers shouldn’t be.
the only reason to move Laine is if he prices himself out of Winnipeg or if it’s obvious he’s looking to bolt first chance he gets.
There is no reason to move Connor or Ehlers... they are on great contracts and bring a lot to our team.
We should be looking at moving Wheeler and giving his money to Laine,

 

[Daximus]

Its OK, I can wait. I'm not going to ignore it. I may or may not accept the sources.

Haha I know you won't accept the sources. I'm not sticking my fingers in my ears on this one though. I did on the Kane situation and the Trouba situation

 

[Daximus]

But Connor isn’t available, and a Ehlers shouldn’t be.
the only reason to move Laine is if he prices himself out of Winnipeg or if it’s obvious he’s looking to bolt first chance he gets.
There is no reason to move Connor or Ehlers... they are on great contracts and bring a lot to our team.
We should be looking at moving Wheeler and giving his money to Laine,

I wonder though even if it is obvious Laine will bolt if Chevy will have the wherewithal to actually move him. Or if he will keep him to the 11th hour to try and get a deal done and then end up taking a lesser deal.

 

[Jimmyjets]

I think this discussion has already been had but I wonder what RFA players Chevy would consider tough to let go unqualified?

Jets RFAs
Forwards:
Jack Roslovic
Mason Appleton
Jansen Harkins
Michael Spacek
CJ Suess

Defensemen:
Sami Niku
Nelson Nogier

Roslovic and Harkins are the only ones that I see as a lock to get qualified, tough decisions to me sounds like they could decide to let one ore more of Appleton, Suess, or Niku go unqualified.
The rest I imagine aren't really tough decisions from an asset standpoint, maybe from a personal attachment. I think a lot (all?) would probably be cheaper than signing outside players if they're all in the AHL. Niku, Roslovic, Harkins, and Appleton would all be making more than league minimum if they were on the Jets though.

Appleton is also 100% getting qualified and I think Niku belongs in that category too as there is potential there. I think he just decided to lump us in with the other teams in saying that everyone has tough decisions to make, but that quote is more about how the Jets could benefit from other team's tough decisions like we did with Matty P than it is about the Jets not qualifying someone of value.

For example the rumour is that AA won't be qualified by the Oilers. Do the Jets take a chance that he could be our 2C or a replacement winger if we end up moving one of ours in a trade? Brandon Montour from Buffalo. They already have Risto, Miller and Harijoku under contract on the right side and have a stud in Dahlin on the left with McCabe. He needs an almost $4M qualifying offer. Does Buffalo do that with their internal cap of $70M or whatever it is? That's a lot of cap to sit in the pressbox when you already need to be $10M less than the actual cap but your star player is getting restless with losing.

I think Chevy was alluding to these sorts of situations and the fact that we have capspace and could make a competitive offer where many other teams won't be able to.

It could also be for a guy like Suess that they really like but they don't qualify him however immediately offer a 2 way deal. He's not going to get a 700K one way contract from anyone as a near 27 year old with 1 NHL game under his belt, but he looks like a valuable 4th line guy to me, so I think the org would want to keep him around, but can't hand him a 1 way contract.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Pretty soon people are going to be speculating Laine wants 15 million a year for 15 years and just break the CBA by sheer force of greed.

So what is it then?

Either he is a top player in the league as some here say he is. If that is the case then he gets paid like it

or

He isn't a top player and he needs help to get numbers. If that is the case he isn't worth even 9 a season.

I hate the rhetoric on these boards some times. Just screaming for the sake of screaming

 

[None]

Appleton is also 100% getting qualified and I think Niku belongs in that category too as there is potential there. I think he just decided to lump us in with the other teams in saying that everyone has tough decisions to make, but that quote is more about how the Jets could benefit from other team's tough decisions like we did with Matty P than it is about the Jets not qualifying someone of value.

Yeah, that's a good point. I only really looked at what he was saying as if he was speaking from his own perspective, but he definitely could've been speaking on the league as a whole and the Jets opportunity to capitalize on it.

 

[AWSAA]

He isn't a top player and he needs help to get numbers. If that is the case he isn't worth even 9 a season.

Laine's prime is worth way more than Wheeler post-35. Not even close. Blake didn't have a 50 point season until he was 25 y.o. Patty has never scored less goals than Blake's career high.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Haha I know you won't accept the sources. I'm not sticking my fingers in my ears on this one though. I did on the Kane situation and the Trouba situation

As long as it isn't Eklund, I will consider it. If it is just some guy on the internet speculating, I will be skeptical. But if someone actually knows something or has some insight I'm not aware of, I want to know about it.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Laine's prime is worth way more than Wheeler post-35. Not even close. Blake didn't have a 50 point season until he was 25 y.o. Patty has never scored less goals than Blake's career high.

So you agree he is worth more than 10+ a season?

 

[surixon]

Yes, I think both Samberg and Heinola are very close. I expect Samberg to make the team out of TC. I'm not assuming 2nd pair yet though. I'm assuming 3rd pair and hoping for 2nd pair. He could start on 3rd pair and move up after a few games, or halfway into the season. But not moving up at all this season is also possible, as is not making the team in the first place. I think we need a plan B. That is xxx and Beaulieu. My choice for xxx is Merrill. Less cost than Dillon and a better fit on the 3rd pair if Samberg turns out to be ready for 2nd pair.

I'm trying not to get too excited over Heinola's performance so far. It is pre-season games, which are the same in Liiga as they are here. I'm also wondering if he ends up playing the right side? If so, he could start on the 3rd pair but I don't see that as his final landing place. I also don't see him as a potential partner with Morrissey, but stranger things have happened. But I think Heinola will be a topic for next off-season.

I think 5 years is probably a little long for DeMelo, but I have been thinking 4 so not that different. When and if we get a true 1st pair RHD, he can move down. Pionk could be good trade bait at some point. Even soon in the scenario where we get a better RHD from a team that needs to cut costs. A team in that kind of position would presumably be happy to get a competent RHD back in the package.

I think there will be opportunities for those kind of creative moves. But I think the Jets will have a very tight internal budget. No other team will be more affected by the Covid related fiscal issues than the Jets. Jets rely on gate more than any other team in the league.

Spacek has over a ppg in preaseason in Finland as well. Just an example of how much stock to really put in presason scoring rates.

Let's see how some of our young players do once the regular season starts.

I doubt we see both Heinola and Samberg crack the roster at the same time.

 

[surixon]

So you agree he is worth more than 10+ a season?

I say he gets the Rantanen deal if he pots 40 and has 80 to 85 points.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Spacek has over a ppg in preaseason in Finland as well. Just an example of how much stock to really put in scoring presason scoring rates.

Let's see how some of our you g players do once the regular season starts.

I doubr we see both Heinola and Samberg crack the roster at the same time.

Yup. Though I'm more excited by Heinola's Corsis than with his scoring. We already knew he could play offense. If he has added defense to his game, he could be something special.

There have been suggestions to trade him - but the potential is too high. I wouldn't consider it. Same goes for Samberg. They may not live up to those potentials, but I'm not moving them while it is still so high.