Whileee
Registered User
- May 29, 2010
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Regarding Veleno, when the Jets traded the pick what was the probability that he was going to be available at that pick? That's the question.Very interesting Whileee.
In general, I agree that these kinds of statistical models are a much better way of evaluating picks than cherry picking. I think we are all prone to cherry picking from time to time. We need to discipline ourselves to keep that in perspective. When we see a better player taken later we need to ask ourselves if the picks looked reasonable at the time? Did someone miss a pick they reasonably should have made? Usually I find I can't justify criticizing the miss or, commonly a good player was passed over by everyone until finally someone decides to jump in because the player is small. If you are simply trying to determine the value of 25 OA vs 20 OA, this is the way to go.
In the case of our '18 1st, I have identified Veleno as the most likely trade off. It is not a generic 29th pick. It is a specific one. Of course the Jets might have taken someone else but considering his attributes and team need and the fact that C is the most highly rated position, I think it is a safe bet. It is not hindsight. He is the one I wanted at the time. I would have been happy to trade up to get him.
In evaluating generic 25-31 picks vs a rental you need to apply the same kind of evaluation to the rentals as you do to the picks. This is a major piece of the puzzle that I see being completely ignored. I'm not talking about the depth rental that you get for a late rd pick or a C prospect. I'm talking about the expensive ones that cost 1st + prospect or a really good prospect. I don't have the numbers but out of all the teams that rent players a max of 1 per year wins the Cup. Many of the rented players disappoint with their new teams. Sometimes they have been overrated. Sometimes they take time to fit in with their new teams. Either way, the rental odds are a lot less than 100%. So it is not a case of 45% likely success late pick vs sure thing rental even if we lower the bar for what constitutes a successful rental.
Just for discussion lets say that rental success = late pick success, both 45%. It is still 45% for 1 PO vs 45% for 7 years minimum.