Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Trade Deadline Has Come & Gone

[Bryanbryoil]

So I know that we are in the midst of a playoff push and hopefully a very good postseason. That said, you always have to be looking towards the future and our cup window should be at least 2 more seasons beyond this one regardless of how this season ends. We still have our 2024 & 2025 1st round picks and our 2023 & 2024 2nd round picks. Barring any new LTIR from our current roster, we won't have any LTIR hang ups and Lucic's and Sekera's retention and buyout caps are off the books at season's end. Basically everything is opened up for the GM to maximize this upcoming offseason. Do we see Karlsson re-visited? Do we see a top 6 RW get brought in? An upgrade on Campbell if he doesn't end the season very well? Will we move on from 1 or both of Yamamoto and Foegele to instead add a more impactful player or simply cheaper depth options?

Click to read more...

 

[Nostradumbass]

We will likely be out of cap space if we just re-signed our RFAs. There may be a little bit of juggling on depth guys (Ryan, Janmark, etc.) but that looks to be it.

 

[Oilhawks]

We will likely be out of cap space if we just re-signed our RFAs. There may be a little bit of juggling on depth guys (Ryan, Janmark, etc.) but that looks to be it.

Yeah, I have a feeling that Holland and Co will try to come back with more or less what they have with the RFAs and maybe even Ryan and Janmark, particularly with a positive post-season Maybe they look at moving out Foegele but if he keeps it up I doubt they bother as he's been more or less worth the contract lately.

Would imagine if some stumbles happen by individual players we might see some picks move out for an upgrade.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I think our bed is made with regards to expensive players unless we can somehow convince Campbell to pull a Hossa/Kucherov. Karlsson is good but the money most likely makes that a pipe dream. I suspect we'll re-up Bouchard/McLeod/Kostin to cheap-ish bridge deals and if possible trade for a top 6 winger with players like Yamamoto/Foegele/Kulak going the other way for salary matching purposes. The main thing we should be looking out for is cheap depth and yes, my favourite topic: reclamation projects

A few players I find intriguing just glancing through the list of younger UFAs who've seen their stock plummet in recent years or RFAs who might not get qualified:
Matt Dumba
Jonathan Drouin
Nick Ritchie
Tyson Jost
Nolan Patrick (not sure if he might just retire or something but doesn't hurt to ask I suppose)
Colin White
ZAR
Sam Steel
Mark Jankowski
Alex Galchenyuk (we've had all the other 2012 top 4 busts in our org already, why not get 3rd overall too)
Jesse Poolparty (yes I really just typed that, never say never, maybe he gets 4th line mins in Carolina and realizes Edmonton was his best shot)
Denis Gurianov
Max Comtois
Cal Foote
Logan Brown
Evgeny Svechnikov

 

[guymez]

That's not the point though. The correlation follows because you don't throw hits if you already have the puck. And as such the more hits a team has the more likely it is that they don't have the puck. What you are talking about is how hits can help you regain the puck. As I mentioned these are different but related things.

@Fourier
I have a few things on the go so my last response was posted too quickly.
I also wasnt able to edit it because that thread got locked.

Im enjoying the conversation so I will carry on here...
The point I was trying to make is that Eakins was stating definitively that more hits always equals less puck possession.
Thats not necessarily true.
It may be suggestive of that but a deeper dive needs to happen to really determine whats going on.
There are a number of reasons...first the primary means by which a team retrieves the puck is important to know. That depends entirely on how the team is built and also on the system being used by that team.
In addition to that...defining a hit can be quite subjective.

So IMO the Eakins statement is suggestive but not at all definitive.

 

[Faelko]

Ryan is 36 years old, I’ll guess he’ll be gone.
Janmark is looking at a pay cut down to League minimum or 1M tops, not necessarily here.
Shore likely gone but he passes thru waivers easily, maybe they want him as a 13th F?
Bjugstad will be interesting if he has any success the rest of the season but likely a rental.
Yams will stay.
Foegele is anyone’s guess But maybe goes in a package for a RHD upgrade with Ceci.
Bouchard gets squeezed into a bridge deal, no arb rights (I think).
McLeod’s deal shouldn‘t be expensive, totals aren’t there.
Kostin 1M x 2.

Kane-McDavid-Hyman
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yams
Holloway-McLeod-Kostin
Lavoie?-Bjugstad?-Janmark?

Nurse-?
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Vinny
Broberg

Skinner
Campbell

 

[Oilhawks]

Ryan is 36 years old, I’ll guess he’ll be gone.
Janmark is looking at a pay cut down to League minimum or 1M tops, not necessarily here.
Shore likely gone but he passes thru waivers easily, maybe they want him as a 13th F?
Bjugstad will be interesting if he has any success the rest of the season but likely a rental.
Yams will stay.
Foegele is anyone’s guess But maybe goes in a package for a RHD upgrade with Ceci.
Bouchard gets squeezed into a bridge deal, no arb rights (I think).
McLeod’s deal shouldn‘t be expensive, totals aren’t there.
Kostin 1M x 2.

Kane-McDavid-Hyman
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yams
Holloway-McLeod-Kostin
Lavoie?-Bjugstad?-Janmark?

Nurse-?
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Vinny
Broberg

Skinner
Campbell

This seems reasonably likely as well. Ceci and Foegele are the two most likely to move of the guys with any term left. 1RD is a glaring hole and with Ekholm Bouchard should be a solid 2RD like he was with Keith (early returns look promising).

Any bottom 6 holes would be AHL graduates and Brad Holland and company finding some cheap depth. If Bjugstad fits in I think he would stay for around $1M too, perhaps Janmark

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

@Fourier
I have a few things on the go so my last response was posted too quickly.
I also wasnt able to edit it because that thread got locked.

Im enjoying the conversation so I will carry on here...
The point I was trying to make is that Eakins was suggesting that more hits always equals less puck possession.
Thats not necessarily true.
It may be suggestive of that but a deeper dive needs to happen to really determine whats going on.
There are a number of reasons...first the primary means by which a team retrieves the puck is important to know. That depends entirely on how the team is built and also on the system being used by that team.
In addition to that...defining a hit can be quite subjective.

So IMO the Eakins statement is suggestive but not at all definitive.

I'm gonna stick my nose in and add a bit to this. The theory behind hit counts is that hits are meant to cause separation between opposing player and puck to create loose pucks, but there are absolutely players in this league who hit for the sake of hitting (Gudbranson, Edmundson etc) and will take themselves out of position and even concede a scoring chance against to do so. Also even after creating separation, the team might not be able to take advantage of the loose puck. Teammates might not be in position to retrieve the puck, puck might take a weird bounce, team might mess up the breakout attempt and have a turnover/icing etc. Certain players also do things to make it easier for teammates and buy time for others to do so. Nurse/Broberg are great at this where they'll sometimes throw a hit then just stand there and not move in front of the opposing forward near the wall rather than pursue a loose puck, allowing Ceci/Bouchard to gobble it up while the opposing forward struggles to get the 6'4 player out of the way. Not really a noticable "defensive play" but in practice it's probably more useful than a "traditional defensive breakup".

Also there are plenty of other ways to cause separation unrelated to physicality whether it be pokechecks, stick lifts, knockdowns etc. A player like Kane/Kostin/Nurse/VD causes turnovers very differently (playing like sadist whose goal is to inflict pain) from someone like Hyman/Puljujarvi/Holloway/Ceci (use body more to create chaos/confusion) or from someone like RNH/Ryan/Ekholm (create turnovers cerebrally by being in position to intercept passes etc).

Overall there's probably a lot of noise that goes into whether hits are actually intended to cause changes in possession, as well as what happens during/after the change in possession. I'm sure there's ways to track all this stuff via microstats, I just don't know any publicly available sites that do.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Will be interesting to see how this promising season shakes out.

For next season, I see Holland still likely to tweak top end of this defense with 1RD. Let's just say Eric Karlsson at $9,200,000 (20%) if the need is still there after a stretch drive and playoff of a Bouch Bomb PP. And if the Oil still have the assets to entice. I also don't fully rule out Parayko!

I can see the organization continuing to reduce costs on bottom six players (Foegele, Ryan, Shore, Janmark; and secondly players like Yamamoto, Ceci or Kulak. Meanwhile onboarding cheap internal talent with Holloway; one of Lavoie or Bourgault (maybe both but Bourgault may be another year away or mid-season option).

Will be very surprised if Holland moves on from Campbell or if they even can if the tender doesn't get his game together. Extending Skinner keeps this an affordable platoon goaltender situation.

Lots of games to be played and information about this roster and individual players to be learned during stretch run and the playoff cooker environment.

 

[guymez]

This seems reasonably likely as well. Ceci and Foegele are the two most likely to move of the guys with any term left. 1RD is a glaring hole and with Ekholm Bouchard should be a solid 2RD like he was with Keith (early returns look promising).

Any bottom 6 holes would be AHL graduates and Brad Holland and company finding some cheap depth. If Bjugstad fits in I think he would stay for around $1M too, perhaps Janmark

I see things the same way except I think that Yamamoto could be gone as well. So thats potentially some additional cap space.

I also agree with you that players like Bjugstad and Janmark (and other bottom 6 players) may be more likely to sign for less money...if this team has a legit chance at winning the Cup.

Its tight but there is space for a player like Karlsson especially if the Oilers are willing to do the deal before the reported $10M bonus kicks in. That in and of itself should be worth some significant retention on Sharks part.

 

[guymez]

I'm gonna stick my nose in and add a bit to this. The theory behind hit counts is that hits are meant to cause separation between opposing player and puck to create loose pucks, but there are absolutely players in this league who hit for the sake of hitting (Gudbranson, Edmundson etc) and will take themselves out of position and even concede a scoring chance against to do so. Also even after creating separation, the team might not be able to take advantage of the loose puck. Teammates might not be in position to retrieve the puck, puck might take a weird bounce, team might mess up the breakout attempt and have a turnover/icing etc. Certain players also do things to make it easier for teammates and buy time for others to do so. Nurse/Broberg are great at this where they'll sometimes throw a hit then just stand there and not move in front of the opposing forward near the wall rather than pursue a loose puck, allowing Ceci/Bouchard to gobble it up while the opposing forward struggles to get the 6'4 player out of the way. Not really a noticable "defensive play" but in practice it's probably more useful than a "traditional defensive breakup".

Also there are plenty of other ways to cause separation unrelated to physicality whether it be pokechecks, stick lifts, knockdowns etc. A player like Kane/Kostin/Nurse/VD causes turnovers very differently (playing like sadist whose goal is to inflict pain) from someone like Hyman/Puljujarvi/Holloway/Ceci (use body more to create chaos/confusion) or from someone like RNH/Ryan/Ekholm (create turnovers cerebrally by being in position to intercept passes etc).

Overall there's probably a lot of noise that goes into whether hits are actually intended to cause changes in possession, as well as what happens during/after the change in possession. I'm sure there's ways to track all this stuff via microstats, I just don't know any publicly available sites that do.

Excellent points TSL!

 

[Fourier]

@Fourier
I have a few things on the go so my last response was posted too quickly.
I also wasnt able to edit it because that thread got locked.

Im enjoying the conversation so I will carry on here...
The point I was trying to make is that Eakins was stating definitively that more hits always equals less puck possession.
Thats not necessarily true.
It may be suggestive of that but a deeper dive needs to happen to really determine whats going on.
There are a number of reasons...first the primary means by which a team retrieves the puck is important to know. That depends entirely on how the team is built and also on the system being used by that team.
In addition to that...defining a hit can be quite subjective.

So IMO the Eakins statement is suggestive but not at all definitive.

I completely agree that Eakins interpretation was to take a statement that was correct ( that more hits often corresponds to less possession though not always of course) and extrapolate it into something that was not correct. He seemed to be suggesting that not throwing hits meant better possession. That is what you are arguing against and in that regard I completely agree. If the opposition does have the puck hits can be a very useful way to change this. In fact, this is precisely what I meant by saying that people make false equivalences between statements involving statistics and how they should be interpreted.

This is a little bit like my pet peeve FOW%. I have repeatedly argued that as an individual stat for the vast majority of players FOW% should be viewed way down on a list of attributes that you care about in a player. But that is not the same as saying that an individual FO might not be important. The two statements are often conflated, but the first is true while the second is definitely not.

So I know that we are in the midst of a playoff push and hopefully a very good postseason. That said, you always have to be looking towards the future and our cup window should be at least 2 more seasons beyond this one regardless of how this season ends. We still have our 2024 & 2025 1st round picks and our 2023 & 2024 2nd round picks. Barring any new LTIR from our current roster, we won't have any LTIR hang ups and Lucic's and Sekera's retention and buyout caps are off the books at season's end. Basically everything is opened up for the GM to maximize this upcoming offseason. Do we see Karlsson re-visited? Do we see a top 6 RW get brought in? An upgrade on Campbell if he doesn't end the season very well? Will we move on from 1 or both of Yamamoto and Foegele to instead add a more impactful player or simply cheaper depth options?

I think that they should revisit Karlsson in the off season. But the price better be less. Not having him for this year would have reduced my price I was willing to pay substantially. Its kind of like buying a car. The value is in the first few years and once that time passes it drops off quickly.

 

[Oilhawks]

I see things the same way except I think that Yamamoto could be gone as well. So thats potentially some additional cap space.

I also agree with you that players like Bjugstad and Janmark (and other bottom 6 players) may be more likely to sign for less money...if this team has a legit chance at winning the Cup.

Its tight but there is space for a player like Karlsson especially if the Oilers are willing to do the deal before the reported $10M bonus kicks in. That in and of itself should be worth some significant retention on Sharks part.

With what DNB and some others were saying, I think he is the main target for 1RD. I seem to recall reading something on the TDL day that was somewhat contradictory about him not being willing to waive (even though reports were that he was willing to waive) so maybe that becomes an obstacle. And maybe him not being willing to waive is more to do with it being so close to the TDL. Regardless, if he is coming to Edmonton, they will have to move Ceci, and one of or both of Foegele to make it work even with retention. Then Bouchard would be 2RD and they would have to fill RW with Hyman, AHL graduates and some cheap UFAs looking to win.

 

[Navx94]

Completely off topic but I wonder kuzmenko is kicking himself for not signing here. Spotlight on him and he’d have much better numbers wouldve lined himself up for a big payday. (PANARIN type entrance to the league)

 

[Tarus]

Completely off topic but I wonder kuzmenko is kicking himself for not signing here. Spotlight on him and he’d have much better numbers wouldve lined himself up for a big payday. (PANARIN type entrance to the league)

He gets a decent chunk of ice time and a nice push on the powerplay. Debatable he would have gotten that here even accounting for the Oiler's at times weak wing position

It was probably more of a sure bet for him to get ice time and a secondary scoring role in Vancouver

 

[AddyTheWrath]

I played around a bit on CapFriendly and I don't really see how Karlsson is realistic at anything > $8M AAV. And even then you would need to dump Campbell somehow.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I played around a bit on CapFriendly and I don't really see how Karlsson is realistic at anything > $8M AAV. And even then you would need to dump Campbell somehow.

Yeah the only way you're getting Karlsson is at 7.5 and soup/ceci both going the other way. It's a pipe dream IMO.

Our best bet is to find us another one of those Ekholms.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

With what DNB and some others were saying, I think he is the main target for 1RD. I seem to recall reading something on the TDL day that was somewhat contradictory about him not being willing to waive (even though reports were that he was willing to waive) so maybe that becomes an obstacle. And maybe him not being willing to waive is more to do with it being so close to the TDL. Regardless, if he is coming to Edmonton, they will have to move Ceci, and one of or both of Foegele to make it work even with retention. Then Bouchard would be 2RD and they would have to fill RW with Hyman, AHL graduates and some cheap UFAs looking to win.

Tyson Barrie referred to hearing about the Karlsson rumour and how he thought he was safe as it got close to the deadline. Believe he would be positioned to know and qualify if the rumours were credible or not (whether via agent, teammates, etc).

Karlsson sounded frustrated, albeit professional, at the team's sell-off and resigned to finishing the year in San Jose with a depleted lineup. Not sure if that was a jibe at a rookie GM not asking him to waive in light of the speculated discussions over weeks that were alleged between San Jose and Edmonton.

First premise in all of this is one has to believe Karlsson gave a credible signal to the Oilers organization that he was willing to waive to play there. The NHL All Star weekend would seem a reasonable environment where that might have happened.

 

[Joey Moss]

Elliott says we made an offer on Meier. Interesting.

Clearly big fish hunting this off-season.

 

[SwedishFire]

Bjugstad is a mixed bad from what i get.

I would like to have 3 good lines again.

But there is 3 great centers only.

Draisaitl McDavid Yamamoto
E Kane Nuge Janmark
Kostin Bjugstad Hyman
Fogele McLeod (Shore/Ryan)

 

[Anarchism]

hello tinfish.....Andrew Peeke
Played 22.26 ....plus minus of zero even thought they lost 5-2. Played 3.20 on the PK which did not get scored on.
How did your guy do tonight?
Attn: Top glove shelf side and MaCBlender.


Karlsson was a proverbial sieve tonight. He got darn near 7 minutes PP time got 1 assist, and his coach trusted him with all of 12 seconds on the PK. Karly was on the ice for 4 goals against.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Apparently we were in talks with Montreal last off-season where they would sign Klingberg, retain and then trade him to us for Barrie+++.

 

[Spawn]

This assumes a 83.5m cap next season. This roster while buying out Campbell would leave $2.6m for a goalie to tandem with Skinner.

Not a tonne of free agent options, but a guys who might be okay to start ~40 games.

Obviously moving out Foegele, Kulak, Ceci for no cap coming back (presumably a couple would go in a deal with picks/prospects for Parayko) would be easier said than done.

Parayko doesn’t have to be that guy, but you could fit a dman in that spot making they much money. There isn’t really anyone available in free agency though.

The 4th line and extra forwards are really just standins. Replace them with whatever ~775k-1m forwards you want.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

View attachment 663587
This assumes a 83.5m cap next season. This roster while buying out Campbell would leave $2.6m for a goalie to tandem with Skinner.

Not a tonne of free agent options, but a guys who might be okay to start ~40 games.

Obviously moving out Foegele, Kulak, Ceci for no cap coming back (presumably a couple would go in a deal with picks/prospects for Parayko) would be easier said than done.

Parayko doesn’t have to be that guy, but you could fit a dman in that spot making they much money. There isn’t really anyone available in free agency though.

The 4th line and extra forwards are really just standins. Replace them with whatever ~775k-1m forwards you want.

I think Holland gives Campbell 1 more year.
Hard no on Parayko.

 

[Macblender]

I think Holland gives Campbell 1 more year.
Hard no on Parayko.

Yeah there isn’t much in the goaltender market for UfA this off-season.

My hope is we come in revenue wise enough for the debt to be paid off and we get a larger cap increase. Winnipeg falls way off and hellebyuck leaves in the off-season we buy out Campbell and sign him after next season. Or saaros legitimately becomes available.

If debt is paid off I expect we would be low 90s or so cap? Not sure if that is reasonable as I don’t know how quickly they would escalate from the projected 86.5M in September to where mouser and co have use at $97M as midpoint based on $6Bn of revenue.

Edit: at this point basically have to be resigned that Campbell is a very overpaid backup and hope skinner can take the reigns as a low end number 1