Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Oilers shopping for 1LD?

[Jumptheshark]

Rumor: - Rumors and Proposals Thread | Oilers Looking at Lawson Crouse?

last one blew through 100o posts awhile ago and since the latest talk is about goalies--new thread time

Question for Oiler fans

Fluery or Gibson. Who would you rather have?

Click to read more...

 

[MettleMcOiler]

Fluery because then we have flexibility to make sure we can sign important expiring contracts after the season.

Getting Gibson would definitely make us lose one of Pulujujarvi or Bouchard.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Fluery because then we have flexibility to make sure we can sign important expiring contracts after the season.

Getting Gibson would definitely make us lose one of Pulujujarvi or Bouchard.

Well no for 2 reasons. 1. He doesn't cost that much, not even close. 2. The Contracts can be figured out in the offseason.

 

[Jet Walters]

Mackenzie Blackwood plus one of Zacha/Wood make roughly 5.5 per. Blackwood is under contact next year and the wingers are RFA. Perfect package to throw Koskinen plus futures at because the players are not rentals and don’t break the bank like Gibson.

 

[TheNumber4]

Fleury cause he'll come for pretty much Free (Hawks spent a 5th round floundering prospect on him) and has just as good a chance as Gibson to rebound back to form. And there's no guarantee that Gibson's top form is even better than Fleury's. Also, Gibson's "going rate" is LUDICROUS.

 

[Ruok]

Would much rather have Gibson than fluery comparing them straight up.

Still think we need to give Skinner a good look this season to know whats up.

 

[MettleMcOiler]

Well no for 2 reasons. 1. He doesn't cost that much, not even close. 2. The Contracts can be figured out in the offseason.

6.4 Mil Cap hit until 26/27 kinda seems like a lot

Edit: Plus we might have to give up a very significant piece to get him

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Gibson b/c he's the only actual good goalie between him and Fleury atm.

 

[McDNicks17]

Gibson is the no-brainer answer there, IMO.

He's been miles better than Fleury this year and he isn't just a pure rental. I've got no problem giving up significant pieces for him.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I threw a bunch of the highest correlative stats from data for the 62 goalies that played the most NHL minutes over the past 2 seasons... MDGAA, MDSV%, SV%, GAA and goals saved above expected (so 5 different stats) and accounted for the different levels of correlation strength to future GA/60 for goalies and this is the final ranks of the top current NHL goalies that this correlative method predicts (keeping in mind of course that at these correlation levels... they can only predict at best about 29% of future performance)...

Here's how the ranks shake out:

1	Chris Driedger
2	Semyon Varlamov
3	Pavel Francouz
4	Tuukka Rask
5	Anton Khudobin
6	Juuse Saros
7	Connor Hellebuyck
8	Ben Bishop
9	Robin Lehner
10	Jake Allen
11	Philipp Grubauer
12	Andrei Vasilevskiy
13	Jack Campbell
14	Darcy Kuemper
15	James Reimer
16	Marc-Andre Fleury
17	Tristan Jarry
18	Petr Mrazek
19	Antti Raanta
20	Jaroslav Halak
21	Linus Ullmark
22	Jordan Binnington
23	Igor Shesterkin
24	Thomas Greiss
25	Ilya Samsonov
26	Elvis Merzlikins
27	Vitek Vanecek
28	Corey Crawford
29	Thatcher Demko
30	Cam Talbot
31	Jonathan Bernier
32	Laurent Brossoit
33	Jacob Markstrom
34	Malcolm Subban
35	Mike Smith
36	Mackenzie Blackwood
37	Cal Petersen
38	Kevin Lankinen
39	Alex Stalock
40	Jonathan Quick
41	Carey Price
42	Mikko Koskinen
43	Frederik Andersen
44	Carter Hart
45	John Gibson
46	Alexandar Georgiev
47	Joonas Korpisalo
48	Sergei Bobrovsky
49	Brian Elliott
50	Braden Holtby
51	David Rittich
52	Carter Hutton
53	Martin Jones
54	Kaapo Kahkonen
55	Aaron Dell
56	Pekka Rinne
57	Curtis McElhinney
58	Craig Anderson
59	Ryan Miller
60	Matt Murray
61	Marcus Hogberg
62	Devan Dubnyk

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So again that's the 62 goalies who played the most minutes who had the best combined stats in those most highly correlated stats to future GA/60 for goalies. This is only good at predicting anywhere from ~20% to 29% of future performance but I thought I'd throw it out there out of curiosity.

The other 70-80% of future performance comes from other factors that can't be readily predicted by looking at past stats... so basically "seen him good" still has some value as well as other forms of analysis that are outside of statistical AND visual analysis... ie what other players the goalies play with (and against) will do in the next 2 seasons as well as injuries, regressions, aging etc etc.

 

[PeteEakins]

MacKenzie Blackwood

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

6.4 Mil Cap hit until 26/27 kinda seems like a lot

Edit: Plus we might have to give up a very significant piece to get him

It is, but you can make it fit.

If it's that kind of piece, you tell the Ducks enjoy running him into the ground during this rebuild-ish.

 

[Cloned]

The Ducks have a decent team this year and might not even be selling at the deadline.

 

[DavidHasselhoffsFist]

@McSuper

You smart
Me dumb

Don’t know what I was thinking……….that whole he’s not under contract come summer thing

My apologies sir

 

[OG Eberle]

I threw a bunch of the highest correlative stats from data for the 62 goalies that played the most NHL minutes over the past 2 seasons... MDGAA, MDSV%, SV%, GAA and goals saved above expected (so 5 different stats) and accounted for the different levels of correlation strength to future GA/60 for goalies and this is the final ranks of the top current NHL goalies that this correlative method predicts (keeping in mind of course that at these correlation levels... they can only predict at best about 29% of future performance)...

Here's how the ranks shake out:

1	Chris Driedger
2	Semyon Varlamov
3	Pavel Francouz
4	Tuukka Rask
5	Anton Khudobin
6	Juuse Saros
7	Connor Hellebuyck
8	Ben Bishop
9	Robin Lehner
10	Jake Allen
11	Philipp Grubauer
12	Andrei Vasilevskiy
13	Jack Campbell
14	Darcy Kuemper
15	James Reimer
16	Marc-Andre Fleury
17	Tristan Jarry
18	Petr Mrazek
19	Antti Raanta
20	Jaroslav Halak
21	Linus Ullmark
22	Jordan Binnington
23	Igor Shesterkin
24	Thomas Greiss
25	Ilya Samsonov
26	Elvis Merzlikins
27	Vitek Vanecek
28	Corey Crawford
29	Thatcher Demko
30	Cam Talbot
31	Jonathan Bernier
32	Laurent Brossoit
33	Jacob Markstrom
34	Malcolm Subban
35	Mike Smith
36	Mackenzie Blackwood
37	Cal Petersen
38	Kevin Lankinen
39	Alex Stalock
40	Jonathan Quick
41	Carey Price
42	Mikko Koskinen
43	Frederik Andersen
44	Carter Hart
45	John Gibson
46	Alexandar Georgiev
47	Joonas Korpisalo
48	Sergei Bobrovsky
49	Brian Elliott
50	Braden Holtby
51	David Rittich
52	Carter Hutton
53	Martin Jones
54	Kaapo Kahkonen
55	Aaron Dell
56	Pekka Rinne
57	Curtis McElhinney
58	Craig Anderson
59	Ryan Miller
60	Matt Murray
61	Marcus Hogberg
62	Devan Dubnyk

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So again that's the 62 goalies who played the most minutes who had the best combined stats in those most highly correlated stats to future GA/60 for goalies. This is only good at predicting anywhere from ~20% to 29% of future performance but I thought I'd throw it out there out of curiosity.

The other 70-80% of future performance comes from other factors that can't be readily predicted by looking at past stats... so basically "seen him good" still has some value as well as other forms of analysis that are outside of statistical AND visual analysis... ie what other players the goalies play with (and against) will do in the next 2 seasons as well as injuries, regressions, aging etc etc.

I think this is a classic case of stats not telling the whole story.

 

[McShogun99]

Gibson is a pipe dream. Teams don’t trade all star goalies unless the goalie requests a trade or they have an upcoming goalie ready to take the starters net.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Wrong thread

 

[AddyTheWrath]

WRong thread

 

[Soundwave]

Oh look, MAF puts up a .955 save percentage with 40+ shots against with a new coach.

Whodathunkit.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Oh look, MAF puts up a .955 save percentage with 40+ shots against with a new coach.

Whodathunkit.

Yeah, I’m sure a 1 game sample size is enough to decide on.

was the old coach telling him to not stop the puck?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Vancouver ties it up short handed.

ducks are terrible

 

[Soundwave]

Yeah, I’m sure a 1 game sample size is enough to decide on.

was the old coach telling him to not stop the puck?

As opposed to writing on the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and 3 time Cup champion because of 8 games?

The old coach sucked balls.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

As opposed to writing on the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and 3 time Cup champion because of 8 games?

The old coach sucked balls.

And his 2 years before that were mediocre behind a very good team defensively

 

[Soundwave]

And his 2 years before that were mediocre behind a very good team defensively

18-19 season was fine. MAF can elevate his play in the playoffs, Koskinen ... no chance, he doesn't have that tier.

Guys like Price and MAF do. Price had a mediocre regular season, several of them actually, but put the guy in the playoffs he's been able to drag the Habs to several playoff round wins.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

18-19 season was fine. MAF can elevate his play in the playoffs, Koskinen ... no chance, he doesn't have that tier.

Guys like Price and MAF do. Price had a mediocre regular season, several of them actually, but put the guy in the playoffs he's been able to drag the Habs to several playoff round wins.

MAF has elevated himself in the playoffs 4/18 seasons.

he’s much more likely to let your team down in the playoffs than he is to carry them