ATD: Rules - Discussion - Trades Thread
- Thread starter Tony Romo
- Start date
I really like Brees. At times I almost feel like he's underrated because he played across arguably the golden age of QBs in the NFL.
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Steve Yzerman didn't become a First-Team All-Star until 2000 - the year after Gretzky hung'em up and Lemieux was in retirement. That's life sometimes.
I'm anti-Saints myself. But Brees doesn't have that interesting of a story. He wasn't a golden child like Manning was and he didn't win a handful of playoff games early in his career while being more or less Alex Smith so he didn't get much in terms of reputation points.
In terms of consistency, it's not hard to argue that he was most accurate QB in history. In the following point system based on where you finish the regular season (which is adjusted for league size going back to 1932) -
1st = 15 pts
2nd = 12
3rd = 10
4th = 7
5th = 5
6th = 3
7th = 2
8th = 1
Drew Brees is the all-time leader in comp% "points"/finishes.
1. Drew Brees 173
2. [undrafted player] 168
3. P.Manning 136
4. [undrafted player] 129
5. [undrafted player] 126
6. Joe Montana 123
...
10. Johnny Unitas 91
...
23. Aaron Rodgers 57
...
27. Tom Brady 50
##
Now, of course that's not the only way to rate a QB and this is just a data dump that doesn't account for league quality or more difficult passing systems to get completions in (Coryell/vertical offenses, for instance), but it's a "friendly" data dump that measures QBs against their own peers over time.
Brady is known for being more of a dink and dunk type of player, especially very early and very late (naturally) in his career. But it's known that he really struggled with vertical passing for almost his entire career (Scout: Tom Brady Throws Worst Deep Ball In NFL But Is Best Under 15 Yards early in his career he struggled to really push passes to the boundary, such as on out-breaking routes. So, when you can't reliably hit those passes - which are invariably in any NFL passing scheme - it's gonna eat into your numbers.
As such, Brady's lone top 3 finish in completion percentage is when he had the best jump ball WR in the NFL (history?) in Randy Moss (who was the obvious MVP in 2007, for my money). He can just chuck them up anywhere and Moss would find them. Similarly, Matt Cassel - a career 57.7% passer with this season removed - threw for 63.4% in 2008 (~10% over his career average).
I'll come back around and give Brady credit for the thing that he did best...adapt. He was a weak talent who didn't always start in college because there was a baseball pitcher there and he was on the chopping block during his first training camp with New England. But he worked as hard as anyone ever and had a coach that worked as hard as anyone and he got much better over his career. But, as noted, even peak Brady was a bad deep ball thrower. So, he changed his release to a more upward trajectory, and tried to "drop" passes out in front of speedy and/or larger outside receivers. Ordinarily, this should damage downfield accuracy because - like fade patterns inside the 5 - it's not a very reliable way to play and it's a hard throw to make...but he made it work. His last couple years in the league are almost certainly his finest downfield work...somehow...in his mid 40's...
But for me, he's the only QB that I've heard of that simultaneously gets called the best ever but also couldn't make all the throws his entire career. It'd be like having the best player in NHL history, except he can't play on his backhand.
I'm anti-Saints myself. But Brees doesn't have that interesting of a story. He wasn't a golden child like Manning was and he didn't win a handful of playoff games early in his career while being more or less Alex Smith so he didn't get much in terms of reputation points.
In terms of consistency, it's not hard to argue that he was most accurate QB in history. In the following point system based on where you finish the regular season (which is adjusted for league size going back to 1932) -
1st = 15 pts
2nd = 12
3rd = 10
4th = 7
5th = 5
6th = 3
7th = 2
8th = 1
Drew Brees is the all-time leader in comp% "points"/finishes.
1. Drew Brees 173
2. [undrafted player] 168
3. P.Manning 136
4. [undrafted player] 129
5. [undrafted player] 126
6. Joe Montana 123
...
10. Johnny Unitas 91
...
23. Aaron Rodgers 57
...
27. Tom Brady 50
##
Now, of course that's not the only way to rate a QB and this is just a data dump that doesn't account for league quality or more difficult passing systems to get completions in (Coryell/vertical offenses, for instance), but it's a "friendly" data dump that measures QBs against their own peers over time.
Brady is known for being more of a dink and dunk type of player, especially very early and very late (naturally) in his career. But it's known that he really struggled with vertical passing for almost his entire career (Scout: Tom Brady Throws Worst Deep Ball In NFL But Is Best Under 15 Yards early in his career he struggled to really push passes to the boundary, such as on out-breaking routes. So, when you can't reliably hit those passes - which are invariably in any NFL passing scheme - it's gonna eat into your numbers.
As such, Brady's lone top 3 finish in completion percentage is when he had the best jump ball WR in the NFL (history?) in Randy Moss (who was the obvious MVP in 2007, for my money). He can just chuck them up anywhere and Moss would find them. Similarly, Matt Cassel - a career 57.7% passer with this season removed - threw for 63.4% in 2008 (~10% over his career average).
I'll come back around and give Brady credit for the thing that he did best...adapt. He was a weak talent who didn't always start in college because there was a baseball pitcher there and he was on the chopping block during his first training camp with New England. But he worked as hard as anyone ever and had a coach that worked as hard as anyone and he got much better over his career. But, as noted, even peak Brady was a bad deep ball thrower. So, he changed his release to a more upward trajectory, and tried to "drop" passes out in front of speedy and/or larger outside receivers. Ordinarily, this should damage downfield accuracy because - like fade patterns inside the 5 - it's not a very reliable way to play and it's a hard throw to make...but he made it work. His last couple years in the league are almost certainly his finest downfield work...somehow...in his mid 40's...
But for me, he's the only QB that I've heard of that simultaneously gets called the best ever but also couldn't make all the throws his entire career. It'd be like having the best player in NHL history, except he can't play on his backhand.
Last edited:
GKJ
Global Moderator
- Feb 27, 2002
- 187,867
- 39,803
It’s easy to forget now, but it wasn’t until Moss got there and the Patriots went for the undefeated season that Brady leveled up into being a prolific quarterback considered among the best. That was after he won 3 Super Bowls as a guy who was seen as pretty good, obviously able to win with, like some other guys who may or may not be drafted, as opposed to post-Moss where he was undisputedly the focus of the franchise and largely maintained the numbers he had been putting up that ultimately made him better overall.
Elvis P
WNBA fan since 1997
Farkas mentioned an undrafted player and comp% is the worst stat to compare QBs from different eras.
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Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Sorry, I did remove that (for some reason, I thought he had gone). But that's exactly it, it doesn't compare QBs from different eras. Compares QBs against their own era, year to year. Then provides a rough estimate of prevalence over peers.
Elvis P
WNBA fan since 1997
This type of point system favors longer careers, all stats favor QBs who played in the West Coast offense, and regular season stats don't measure playoff success.
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Night Train Lane, and Megatron were 2 of the guys I was considering with my second pick. I wanted T.O for sure, was deciding between night train, megatron and Matthews with the second pick.
tony d
New poll series coming from me on June 3
I considered Steve Young when I went with Rodgers. Injuries were the concern for me so I went with Rodgers. Still Young's an all time great QB but you have to worry about injuries with him.
Holden Caulfield
Eternal Skeptic
Makes me feel better about it. Most lists i saw have Megatron around 8-10 in all-time WRs but i felt he was highest upside. There's a sentimental pick I wanted to make at 48, but I'm hoping he'll slide to 57.
DaaaaB's
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2004
- 8,449
- 2,024
The people making those lists are out to lunch imo. I'd say he's 3rd behind just Rice and Moss. He's also the most dominant receiver ever.
DaaaaB's
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2004
- 8,449
- 2,024
Yeah it's a tough call. TO had the better career numbers but Megatron was more dominant imo. I drafted TO pretty high in the one we did a few years.
Not that it needs to be warned. Since we been good. The time limit for picks until the 10th round is 10 hours.
Elvis P
WNBA fan since 1997
Some sites are really bad. I saw one that has an undrafted player #10 all-time.
Elvis P
WNBA fan since 1997
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Elvis P
WNBA fan since 1997
@Tony Romo If you put [ quote] (w/o the space) before Round One in the draft thread there would be a lot less scrolling. See below.
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
I'd entertain moving up, or more complexly, trading for a 5 and 6 with a slew of picks after these two rounds...just in case anyone is stuck in a "middle ground" like I did a couple rounds ago.
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