I don't recall Heatley having nearly the hype that Kovalchuk brought with him in their rookie year. Yes, he was progressing very well and had great college numbers, but the same could be said of O'Sullivan or Wolski. I mean, is 57 pts in 39 games in the NCAA that much more impressive than 128 pts in 56 games? Not saying that either will be as good as Heatley, but it is completely possible that one of next year's rookies do have as good of a rookie season. It could even be someone like Ryder in his rookie season, an older player who has a great season (Ryder's rookie season he put up only 1 less goal and 3 less assists). It would've been theoretically possible for Ryder to have taken the Calder from Kovalchuk as well.
The point in all this, is that every year there are surprises, and often the hyped super stars aren't as good as billed. And even when they are, sometimes the surprises just happen to be better. But, of next year's rookies, I would be absolutely shocked if any of them outside of Malkin have a Crosby/Ovechkin-esque rookie season. If Malkin does have a similar year, I think he's a lock. I just don't think he's a lock to have a similar year.