Draft Round 5 #152: New York Rangers Select D Rasmus Larsson (Västerås IK J20/Sweden)

B17 Apricots

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I like overagers later in the draft... undervalued, they're further along and you get a better idea of how they're trending. I just haven't liked many they've chosen recently. I work nights so theres a bunch of Euro hockey on during the day. The fact that teams are still underscouting and undervalue that region is strange. The sheer amount of players that have been past over there alone is bananas. When you think of an overager it should almost be seen as an advantage, guys that should be pulling ahead of their peers, dominating their level... I don't really see that with many of the ones we've picked recently.

Leaving out NA, there were countless players in the MHL, VHL, KHL that should probably have gotten picked up. Oskar Asplund (LHD) was undrafted again, 3 straight years in pro hockey. Dominated the Allsvenskan this season. He didn't warrant a selection over some of the players these teams are choosing? Its so bizarre how someone like Kuzmenko comes flying into the league this year, so it should be fresh in all these organization's heads.. at 21 he was still splitting time between the KHL and VHL. At 21 Barabanov split his time in the VHL and MHL. Mikheyev was in the VHL at 21. I wouldn't call these guys late bloomers, seems like a fairly normal trajectory to me.

Toronto was the organization that brought over Barabanov and Mikheyev. They've been linked to a number of other KHL players that winded up not coming over. Last year they chose Grebyonkin in the 5th round as an overager. He had a strong year in the KHL this season. Carolina is a team that drafts really well. They've went all in on Russia the last few drafts and for obvious reasons... its incredibly undervalued. Aside from the other good Russkies they took this year, they grabbed one of the good KHL overagers, Stanislav Yarovoy. Arizona took one of the others, Vadim Moroz. I could go down the list of good overagers taken late in the draft by teams the past few years. There are teams that are going in that direction. This is why some of our choices annoy me. It's not like there's no talent avaliable.

To me when you see an overager that's having success professionally in leagues like this there should be major green flags. The reality is, if they're at this level at that age many of them are the players that go on to be the next wave of great KHL talent and in that group there's a crop of them that are good enough to transition to the NHL.
You have someone like Alex Suvorov. He was not drafted, he will no longer be eligible. I believe he was injured toward the end of the season that hampered his game, they reduced his minutes. This was a kid that had +20 points in his first 30 games this season! For a 20 year old in the KHL it's fantastic. Good skater, high skill, has a little bite to his game. I'm not saying this is for sure the one of the next great KHL players but this is certainly the sort of trajectory you would expect in a future one. This is the mold of a player that teams completely pass over and than fight to bring in as an undrafted free agent... where as we decide to select a 6'7 overager like it's the 90's. You have overagers that are excelling in pro level hockey and we are not tapping into it. I don't understand how an organization like this doesn't have scouts devouring that region. Not an overager but here's an interesting quote...
"There are only two players in MHL history to play over 30 games and produce above 1.3 points per game (P/GP) in their draft-eligible season, Nikita Kucherov and Yegor Klimovich" Klimovich went undrafted. Again... looking at the guys we chose and this is a player that wasn't on our radar?
 

n8

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He was born Aug 23, 1988 and drafted in 2007. He was still 18 at the time of the draft, but he was eligible for the 2006 draft.

So yes, he was an overager, but a young one.
18 years old doesn't FEEL like an overager even if it technically isn't one. That is the normal draft age in my mind. A late bday that results in a 19 year old is also ok really. It's more of the 21, 22, 23, 24 years olds. Part of it is also that I don't understand when a player graduates to a undrafted player that can just be signed as a UFA
 

cwede

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... I don't understand when a player graduates to a undrafted player that can just be signed as a UFA
maybe these 3 scenarios help a little
- a guy who goes thru the draft 3 times, year 18, 19, 20 and is not picked, can sign anywhere
- a guy like Grubbe, as NYR had not signed him within 2 years of drafting from Major Junior, if had not traded\signed by Oil, would have re-entered draft 'eligibility' and if not re-drafted, then UFA (see guy like Ben Roger, D drafted high by Sens in '21, but not signed this spring, and then NOT re-drafted)
- a guy who goes undrafted, but in offseason signs ATO to attend dev or training camp (recall Tolchinsky, if you were watching then, who had ATOs w NYR and Canes), there is window, until ~ when his season starts, where that ATO team can ELC him (Canes signed Tolchinsky in August when he'd been expected to go to TC w NYR) BUT if he doesn't get signed, back to draft eligible

CBA fluent guys can add more detail
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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maybe these 3 scenarios help a little
- a guy who goes thru the draft 3 times, year 18, 19, 20 and is not picked, can sign anywhere
- a guy like Grubbe, as NYR had not signed him within 2 years of drafting from Major Junior, if had not traded\signed by Oil, would have re-entered draft 'eligibility' and if not re-drafted, then UFA (see guy like Ben Roger, D drafted high by Sens in '21, but not signed this spring, and then NOT re-drafted)
- a guy who goes undrafted, but in offseason signs ATO to attend dev or training camp (recall Tolchinsky, if you were watching then, who had ATOs w NYR and Canes), there is window, until ~ when his season starts, where that ATO team can ELC him (Canes signed Tolchinsky in August when he'd been expected to go to TC w NYR) BUT if he doesn't get signed, back to draft eligible

CBA fluent guys can add more detail

Slight addition to that first rule:

Players who go undrafted, can sign an entry level contract with an NHL team until October 1st. If they have not signed by October 1st, they have to re-enter the draft if they are 18 or 19 years old.

Case in point: Philippe Myers
 

n8

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Slight addition to that first rule:

Players who go undrafted, can sign an entry level contract with an NHL team until October 1st. If they have not signed by October 1st, they have to re-enter the draft if they are 18 or 19 years old.

Case in point: Philippe Myers
Those were the best explanations ever and I'm still confused. Maybe someday someone will make a flowchart but thanks both of you. It helps paint the picture of what sort of decisions are being made on draft day. If they really like a player, then there is no point in risking getting them for "free" in that ATO/ELC or undrafted FA window.

Second curious trivia question, how many notable overage draftees were selected in their last eligible draft year?
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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Those were the best explanations ever and I'm still confused. Maybe someday someone will make a flowchart but thanks both of you. It helps paint the picture of what sort of decisions are being made on draft day. If they really like a player, then there is no point in risking getting them for "free" in that ATO/ELC or undrafted FA window.

Second curious trivia question, how many notable overage draftees were selected in their last eligible draft year?

I've spent hundreds of hours in trying to understand this side of the game and I still sometimes struggle to understand certain aspects. It also doesn't help that there are documents other than the CBA that aren't publicly available.

CBA: Publicly available, signed in 2012

MOU: Publicly available, signed in 2020

IIHF transfer agreement: Obtained through a player agent

CHL transfer agreement: Got snippets of this one, but nothing complete

NHL Bylaws: Not publicly available, but parts I was able to obtain when documents were officially released in the bankruptcy case of Coyotes owner Jerry Moyes

And all that information results in over 2,000 pages of rules that are often written in a very arbitrary way, with exceptions attached to it. It's a nightmare. But I love it.
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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Those were the best explanations ever and I'm still confused. Maybe someday someone will make a flowchart but thanks both of you. It helps paint the picture of what sort of decisions are being made on draft day. If they really like a player, then there is no point in risking getting them for "free" in that ATO/ELC or undrafted FA window.

Second curious trivia question, how many notable overage draftees were selected in their last eligible draft year?

Successful players drafted in the salary cap era in their 2nd or 3rd year eligible:

Paul Stastny (19)
Anton Strålman (19)
Jonathan Quick (19)
Trevor Lewis (19)
Justin Braun (20)
Wayne Simmonds (19)
Alec Martinez (20)
Pat Maroon (19)
Nick Bonino (19)
David Perron (19)
Jason Demers (20)
Cam Atkinson (19)
Matt Martin (19)
Gustav Nyquist (19)
Darcy Kuemper (19)
Craig Smith (20)
Nic Dowd (19)
Mattias Ekholm (19)
Mike Hoffmann (19)
Anders Lee (19)
Frederik Andersen (20 & 22)
Radko Gudas (20)
Magnus Hellberg (20)
Josh Manson (19)
Ondřej Palát (20)
Blake Coleman (19)
Linus Ullmark (19)
Connor Hellebuyck (19)
Tanner Pearson (20)
ben Hutton (19)
Colin Miller (19)
Jimmy Vesey (19)
Colton Parayko (19)
Jordan Martinook (20)
Shayne Gostisbehere (19)
Erik Gustafsson (20)
Carson Soucy (19)
Mattias Janmark (20)
MacKenzie Weegar (19)
Andrew Copp (19)
Elvis Merzļikins (20)
Nathan Walker (20)
Devon Toews (20)
Viktor Arvidsson (21)
Brandon Montour (20)
Matt Roy (20)
Markus Nutivaara (21)
Michael Eyssimont (20)
Dylan Gambrell (20)
Ross Colton (20)
Swedish Sebastian Aho (21)
Johnathan Kovacevic (20)
Jacob Bryson (19)
Yegor Sharangovich (20)
Sean Durzi (19)

*age based on how old they were on September 15th of the year they were drafted, the cut-off date.
 

eco's bones

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For some players an extra year can make a lot of difference. A player can be 6'1 180 in his draft year and 6'2 200 a year later, his skating could be better or he might might have gone up a level in competition and adjusted to it really well. Put a couple/three things like that together over a season and that player becomes a lot more interesting. There are a lot of players out there and every year players who fall through the cracks and aren't drafted.

One of my favorite overage stories was Marc Savard who waited until I think his third year of eligibility for the Rangers to take him in the 4th round. He was passed over at least once. He was smallish at a time where that really meant something, he wasn't a particularly good skater, he was cocky as f*** almost to the distraction of his own team at times but as a player he was always doing sneaky shit and either taking penalties but more often drawing retaliation penalties. Despite his skating issues though he was a whale of an offensive player. I think he led the OHL in scoring at least once. I think some NHL teams looked at him and really wondered whether he could take that to the pros. The Rangers finally gave him a chance though. His time with the Rangers he wasn't really the most mature guy but by the time Matt Cooke ended his career he'd grown as a person and was a top notch player.
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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For some players an extra year can make a lot of difference. A player can be 6'1 180 in his draft year and 6'2 200 a year later, his skating could be better or he might might have gone up a level in competition and adjusted to it really well. Put a couple/three things like that together over a season and that player becomes a lot more interesting. There are a lot of players out there and every year players who fall through the cracks and aren't drafted.

One of my favorite overage stories was Marc Savard who waited until I think his third year of eligibility for the Rangers to take him in the 4th round. He was passed over at least once. He was smallish at a time where that really meant something, he wasn't a particularly good skater, he was cocky as f*** almost to the distraction of his own team at times but as a player he was always doing sneaky shit and either taking penalties but more often drawing retaliation penalties. Despite his skating issues though he was a whale of an offensive player. I think he led the OHL in scoring at least once. I think some NHL teams looked at him and really wondered whether he could take that to the pros. The Rangers finally gave him a chance though. His time with the Rangers he wasn't really the most mature guy but by the time Matt Cooke ended his career he'd grown as a person and was a top notch player.

Yes, but it all comes down to identifying the players who have made that progress you expect the 18-year olds to still go through.

Rasmus Larsson? Yeah, he has done that. Dylan Roobroeck? Not at all.

I am not against drafting 19-year olds in general, but with Roobroeck it seems like they just picked him because of his size. For a 19-year old (D+1 season) in major juniors, he has not been that impressive.
 

eco's bones

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Yes, but it all comes down to identifying the players who have made that progress you expect the 18-year olds to still go through.

Rasmus Larsson? Yeah, he has done that. Dylan Roobroeck? Not at all.

I am not against drafting 19-year olds in general, but with Roobroeck it seems like they just picked him because of his size. For a 19-year old (D+1 season) in major juniors, he has not been that impressive.

Roobroeck's point production in his second OHL year went up significantly. Whether or not we should have been picked him is another question. The Rangers it seems to me for several years have been on this mission to draft a 6'5 + player who might someday make it and stick. Gettinger, Edstrom, Rempe, signing Rueschoff and Roobroeck's just the latest. There's also Ollas and Boyko in goal. They are mid round to later picks but it's a mixed bag. So far Gettinger is the only one to play an NHL game but he's really just a good AHL player taken in the 4th round in a mediocre draft. Of the players still in our system Edstrom and Ollas are intriguing. Rempe needs at least a couple more years development but if you need a goon right now. Boyko has never impressed me much.
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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Roobroeck's point production in his second OHL year went up significantly. Whether or not we should have been picked him is another question. The Rangers it seems to me for several years have been on this mission to draft a 6'5 + player who might someday make it and stick. Gettinger, Edstrom, Rempe, signing Rueschoff and Roobroeck's just the latest. There's also Ollas and Boyko in goal. They are mid round to later picks but it's a mixed bag. So far Gettinger is the only one to play an NHL game but he's really just a good AHL player taken in the 4th round in a mediocre draft. Of the players still in our system Edstrom and Ollas are intriguing. Rempe needs at least a couple more years development but if you need a goon right now. Boyko has never impressed me much.

The question is: If we had drafted Roobroeck last year, would we be pleased with his D+1 improvement? Would we consider him a good pick based on what he did in 2022-23?

I don't agree with that. Roobroeck to me is a bad pick. Rasmus Larsson on the other hand, is a good pick. I'm happy with where he is at age 19.
 

nyr2k2

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Given the odds of the 178th pick of the draft making any kind of contribution, I hesitate to call picks at that stage "bad." Roobroeck doesn't seem particularly interesting to me, but if he tales a step forward this season the way he did last season, who knows? We do take flyers on guys with skill in the middle and late rounds as well, like Barbashev, Lamb, Vaisanen and Chmelar, Vierling, Berard, Aaltonen, Ciccolini, Pajuniemi, Hughes, Virta, etc. That's just from the last six drafts, rounds four or later. So while we pick boring, low-upside guys like Karpa, Rempe, Edstrom (he doesn't belong in this category but at the time he may have), and Crawley, it's balanced out with more interesting, more skilled picks.

And in general, if they want to take a gamble on Henricks or Roobroeck at the end, I'm fine with that.
 
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Amazing Kreiderman

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Given the odds of the 178th pick of the draft making any kind of contribution, I hesitate to call picks at that stage "bad." Roobroeck doesn't seem particularly interesting to me, but if he tales a step forward this season the way he did last season, who knows? We do take flyers on guys with skill in the middle and late rounds as well, like Barbashev, Lamb, Vaisanen and Chmelar, Vierling, Berard, Aaltonen, Ciccolini, Pajuniemi, Hughes, Virta, etc. That's just from the last six drafts, rounds four or later. So while we pick boring, low-upside guys like Karpa, Rempe, Edstrom (he doesn't belong in this category but at the time he may have), and Crawley, it's balanced out with more interesting, more skilled picks.

And in general, if they want to take a gamble on Henricks or Roobroeck at the end, I'm fine with that.

Yeah, I could have phrased it better. Not so much a bad pick, but more an uninspiring one. Kinda like Virta and Lakatoš back in 2017. There wasn't much to get excited about because the progress between age 18 and 20 wasn't really noteworthy
 

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