Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

[FLYguy3911]

He’s looked good every time I have seen him.

 

[Larry44]

He’s looked good every time I have seen him.

Good to hear. I only saw the WJC games, he made some beautiful plays. Don't get to see many college games on TSN, so thanks for any updates.

 

[Jtown]

He’s looked good every time I have seen him.

can you name another 1st rounder who has scored at such a low rate in their freshman year?

 

[Appleyard]

He has been very disappointing...

but he does have a great skill set. Good skater, good shot, good hands, diligent coming back into own zone.

But a lot of players do and dont make it if they cannot put all those pieces together.

 

[wankstifier]

Middelstadt had 30 points in 34 games. I wish JOB was struggling to that degree

Admittedly, it wasn’t the best comparison. Mittelstadt had more experience on a more competitive stage. His physical development was more advanced as well.

Still, Mittelstadt didn’t have a consistent performance last season. He did well in the second half, possibly influenced by a strong WJC.

I wouldn’t put O’Brien in the Laberge range of the concern-o-meter just yet. He’s got time to figure his shit out. The Flyers will have to be patient anyway because he has little trade value.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Dude's been in the Flyers organization for 8 months and is already, seriously, being labeled as a bust by some.

Dude's been out of high school hockey for 10 months and is already, seriously, being labeled as a bust by some.

Dude got cranked twice in the beginning of the season and missed a load of games and is already, seriously, being labeled as a bust by some.

Dude is like 96 lbs and physiologically is still shaping into an actual adult body and is already, seriously, being labeled as a bust by some.

Dude made the WJC team fresh out of high school and is already, seriously, being labeled as a bust by some.

For the record, and totally understandable as we don't really have any interactions, I was being

 

[Jtown]

He has been very disappointing...

but he does have a great skill set. Good skater, good shot, good hands, diligent coming back into own zone.

But a lot of players do and dont make it if they cannot put all those pieces together.

this is my line of thinking too. No one is calling him a bust, but for a kid to be that talented , and that physically mature to not be producing more his freshman year is disappointing. he has Konecny type ability with a more physical presence. I was really hoping for more.

 

[Tripod]

Certainly disappointing. We are a bit lucky that we are looking to be in a position that if he doesn't pan out, it doesn't hurt us much. We just need others like Farabee and Ratliffe to pan out instead.

Safety in numbers. Let the best rise to the top.

We can afford to let O'Brien have 2 more years of college in hopes he figures it out. He was a surprise pick at the time and so far, not looking good. But lots can change in 1 summer for kids. Look at Myers undrafted...then a few months later looking fantastic and earning an NHL contract and a top Q Dman.

Set it, and forget it.

 

[kelmitchell]

I wasnt a fan of the pick when we took him, amd he hasnt really given me any reason to change my mind so far

 

[Rebels57]

The Flyers will be fine with or without JOB developing into an impact player. Getting that second 1st from STL and nabbing Farabee ensured that. If he does, great. If he doesnt, oh well. I still like him as a prospect but he's a longterm project. Which is probably a good thing considering how young our roster is and how many other prospects are essentially NHL ready.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

As for next year, I wouldn't freak out if he doesn't light up the scoreboard. He's going from High School hockey straight to Hockey East. That's a big jump and Providence isn't exactly a run 'n gun team. Mittelstadt went from Minnesota HS hockey to the Big Ten and wasn't even a PPG player.

I took out the name so he didn't get a ping for a necro, but this was FLYguy in June. I just wanted to avoid the hindsight argument.

Take a deep breath and forget he exists for now.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

i think hextall drafted guys, that would be later signees, to avoid having to expose too many good players, for the expansion draft. mostly h.s. college and overseas players, not junior players that might make the roster sooner.

 

[Jtown]

I took out the name so he didn't get a ping for a necro, but this was FLYguy in June. I just wanted to avoid the hindsight argument.

Take a deep breath and forget he exists for now.

1. That example of middelstadt pales to what we are seeing from JOB.
2. Not lightning it up vs 5 points in 23 games?
3. Can you or anyone for that matter provide an example of a first round pick that scored so infrequently as a college freshman? And better yet can you provide an example of one that eventually became a good nhler?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

1. That example of middelstadt pales to what we are seeing from JOB.
2. Not lightning it up vs 5 points in 23 games?
3. Can you or anyone for that matter provide an example of a first round pick that scored so infrequently as a college freshman? And better yet can you provide an example of one that eventually became a good nhler?

1. So does JOB the prospect compared to Middlestadt. I didn't read that to be a direct comp.

2. 23 Game sample size plus injuries. Yes, I would like to see more, but it's infinitely more relative than that.

3. you have to use your imagination and project.

I apologize for there not being better examples of g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶t̶a̶l̶e̶n̶t̶s̶ ̶b̶e̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶r̶a̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶p̶o̶s̶t̶ ̶c̶a̶p̶ ̶e̶r̶a̶ Massachusetts high schoolers moving to Hockey East, playing for defensive schools, and taking two high hits that affected him.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Blake Wheeler was a top 5 pick and didn’t even play College Hockey the next season. He’s decent.

Under normal circumstances, O’Brien probably should have spent a year in the USHL, but that didn’t happen because he is fairly talented and can, despite the stat line, compete at the D1 level. I knew people would completely overlook the jump from Mass HS hockey to Hockey East. High school hockey now isn’t what it was when guys like JR and Amonte were playing. It’s a huge jump.

The production doesn’t scare me. I expect he’ll produce more in line with expectations next year. All of the missed time between injuries, sickness, and suspension, concerns me more.

 

[Jtown]

1. So does JOB the prospect compared to Middlestadt. I didn't read that to be a direct comp.

2. 23 Game sample size plus injuries. Yes, I would like to see more, but it's infinitely more relative than that.

3. you have to use your imagination and project.

I apologize for there not being better examples of g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶t̶a̶l̶e̶n̶t̶s̶ ̶b̶e̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶r̶a̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶p̶o̶s̶t̶ ̶c̶a̶p̶ ̶e̶r̶a̶ Massachusetts high schoolers moving to Hockey East, playing for defensive schools, and taking two high hits that affected him.

wtf is that passive aggressive shit. IM not asking about high schoolers, i am asking for any f***ing 1st rounder to be producing at a rate as low as JOB their freshman year.

Statistics | College Hockey | USCHO.com providence is the 11th highest scoring team in college hockey.

 

[Jordan941]

1. That example of middelstadt pales to what we are seeing from JOB.
2. Not lightning it up vs 5 points in 23 games?
3. Can you or anyone for that matter provide an example of a first round pick that scored so infrequently as a college freshman? And better yet can you provide an example of one that eventually became a good nhler?

I think the best recent comparison is Ryan Poehling. I don’t know the context around why his numbers were low in his freshman year (13 points in 33 games= .37 ppg vs. O’Brien who is currently at .22 ppg I believe), but he was able to bounce back his Sophmore year with 31 points in 36 games. I’m willing to admit that this is likely an exception rather than the norm and that the comparison is not perfect as Poehling would have currently out performed O’Brien’s freshman year, but bounce backs can happen.

 

[Psuhockey]

The Flyers will be fine with or without JOB developing into an impact player. Getting that second 1st from STL and nabbing Farabee ensured that. If he does, great. If he doesnt, oh well. I still like him as a prospect but he's a longterm project. Which is probably a good thing considering how young our roster is and how many other prospects are essentially NHL ready.

The problem is when the Flyers go to trade. Guys like O’Brien and Rubtsov do not have the kind of value of former first round picks necessary to get teams to bite on in trade. So now Frost and Farabee becomes the ask for a guy like Trouba this summer or any other top 3 defenseman. It’s the same as not getting a first round pick for Simmonds and taking Hartman instead. The value is fine now but the ripple effects later because of it makes it suck.

 

[Jtown]

I think the best recent comparison is Ryan Poehling. I don’t know the context around why his numbers were low in his freshman year (13 points in 33 games= .37 ppg vs. O’Brien who is currently at .22 ppg I believe), but he was able to bounce back his Sophmore year with 31 points in 36 games. I’m willing to admit that this is likely an exception rather than the norm and that the comparison is not perfect as Poehling would have currently out performed O’Brien’s freshman year, but bounce backs can happen.

i would be down for the poehling example if not for the fact that poehling was a 17 year old freshman.

job is 19.

i just can't find an example of this happening.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Poehling’s freshman season in college was technically his senior year in high school, but it just shows that it’s not the end of the world if a freshman isn’t lighting up college hockey. Next year? Sure start to worry.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

wtf is that passive aggressive ****. IM not asking about high schoolers, i am asking for any ****ing 1st rounder to be producing at a rate as low as JOB their freshman year.

Statistics | College Hockey | USCHO.com providence is the 11th highest scoring team in college hockey.

Repurposing something you said isn't passive aggressive. I knew you would get the reference.

There aren't many reasonable comps. That's the whole point. It's a MASSIVE jump to go from where he was to where he is now.

 

[Tripod]

No one was offering a 1st for Simmonds.

 

[wasup]

Hard transition from high school to college.

Mittelstadt struggled as well, though he didn’t deal with injuries.

Delete

 

[Rebels57]

The problem is when the Flyers go to trade. Guys like O’Brien and Rubtsov do not have the kind of value of former first round picks necessary to get teams to bite on in trade. So now Frost and Farabee becomes the ask for a guy like Trouba this summer or any other top 3 defenseman. It’s the same as not getting a first round pick for Simmonds and taking Hartman instead. The value is fine now but the ripple effects later because of it makes it suck.

We have plenty of assets. Ratcliffe, for example, would be appealing to Winnipeg I am sure. He is easily a top 30 prospect in a re-draft of his class. GMs tend to look beyond original draft slot when looking to make a trade with another team.

 

[Jtown]

Patrick White (b.1989) Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Jim O'Brien (b.1989) Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Daultan Leveille Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Corey Trivino Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Sam Kurker Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Connor Hurley Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com



here are the best comps for JOB. high draft picks, with really bad freshman years. Let's just say its going to be an uphill battle.