Roster Thread XI -- The End is Here -- Commence the offseason!

[Chainshot]

The proper term is boffin.

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[Dirty Dog]

I would say that Alex Nylander is the counter example to that approach.

The key is knowing when the right time is to move on from any player, young or otherwise.

Holding onto Tage Thompson was the right call. Trading Nylander was also the right call.

We just have to hope that Adams makes the right call with Mitts and the other young guys over the next few years. Some of those players will not develop the way we want them to. We have to hope that Adams makes the right call on who to keep and who to move on from.

While true, Alex nylander wasn’t a product of selling low. The instant reaction from any neutral fan was we got great value for nylander

That’s my point

 

[Jim Bob]

While true, Alex nylander wasn’t a product of selling low. The instant reaction from any neutral fan was we got great value for nylander

That’s my point

Nylander's value at the time of the trade was nowhere near where it would have been had he maximized his potential. The trade looked great because most Sabres fans were tired of waiting and had no real expectations that he would maximize his talent as a Sabre.

If you want to use Mitts as an example, Adams could potentially get a trade offer that is worth making, just like Nylander for Jokiharju. If Adams gets offered a #1 goalie that solidifies that position for the next 2-3 years, he might make that trade and I wouldn't say that is selling low.

 

[Djp]

Well you are correct, I wouldn't have a shed a tear if Thompson were traded last year. The idea that anyone should be chastised for giving up on TT given his development at his D+4 year is silly. Players rarely go from a career high 14 points to a 35+ goal season in one year. Holding him up as an example of typical player development and why we can't trade any of our young forwards is the pretty flawed logic. You simply need to play the odds that a player will develop given their development path. Which, in theory, at least, our fancy new analytics department should be able to give somewhat reliable numbers on.



This has been a full NHL season where we have seen what we have. We can make an educated decision on who to stay and who to go based on what we have seen so far. To simply hold onto to players because maybe they might develop is holding onto assets until they have lost any value. It'd be the NHL equivalent of hoarding. There are 23 roster spots. The team should identify who they want to move forward with and use areas of depth (young/prospect level forwards) to supplement areas of scarcity (RHD and goal). We will struggle to add players via UFA given the state of the franchise. So, trade route will be the most reliable and yield the highest quality of players.

Might we move a player and they develop elsewhere? Absolutely. And players we hold onto might bust. Even the best GMs don't bat 1.000 when it comes to predicting things like that. But we shouldn't mark players as unavailable simply because 'Well look at Tage Thompson has done". His sudden development is as unlikely and unpredictable as any player we have seen.

i disagree on the D+3 to D+5 growth potential on players. Many many players historically emerge in this period.

i understand you might trade players…but not at the shut value in some of your proposals Ive seen.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Djp]

I would say that Alex Nylander is the counter example to that approach.

The key is knowing when the right time is to move on from any player, young or otherwise.

Holding onto Tage Thompson was the right call. Trading Nylander was also the right call.

We just have to hope that Adams makes the right call with Mitts and the other young guys over the next few years. Some of those players will not develop the way we want them to. We have to hope that Adams makes the right call on who to keep and who to move on from.

nylander us sn outlier…

you had a GM change…they don’t care as much about pkayers not theirs ehen it comes to trades.

Nylander was held back to try and strategize around the expansion draft. This affected his development.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Nylander's value at the time of the trade was nowhere near where it would have been had he maximized his potential. The trade looked great because most Sabres fans were tired of waiting and had no real expectations that he would maximize his talent as a Sabre.

If you want to use Mitts as an example, Adams could potentially get a trade offer that is worth making, just like Nylander for Jokiharju. If Adams gets offered a #1 goalie that solidifies that position for the next 2-3 years, he might make that trade and I wouldn't say that is selling low.

The Nylander trade looked good because we got a similarly young player who had shown way more and was far likelier to reach his potential. It was a rare young player for young player trade.

Trading mitts for a 2-year stop gap at goalie is absolutely selling low and has a good chance of looking like a terrible trade in the future.


And nylander and mitts are not comparable. Nylander didn’t show anything to show he was progressing. Mitts has shown great flashes and there are concrete reasons to explain his development. The amount of I cracked potential between nylander and mitts are not really comparable.

I’m not against trading young players. I’m against trading high potential young players for low

 

[Jim Bob]

The Nylander trade looked good because we got a similarly young player who had shown way more and was far likelier to reach his potential. It was a rare young player for young player trade.

Trading mitts for a 2-year stop gap at goalie is absolutely selling low and has a good chance of looking like a terrible trade in the future.

And nylander and mitts are not comparable. Nylander didn’t show anything to show he was progressing. Mitts has shown great flashes and there are concrete reasons to explain his development. The amount of I cracked potential between nylander and mitts are not really comparable.

I’m not against trading young players. I’m against trading high potential young players for low

Without knowing the trade, I don't know how you are saying it is trading low.

And I doubt too many Sabres fans would say that it would be trading low on Mitts if the trade were Mitts for Helly.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Chainshot]

I'm curious how Pysyk and Miller feel about not seeing any ice down the stretch. Miller in particular with his injury and then a couple of middling games after returning seems like he's going to be leaving money on the table this summer.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Without knowing the trade, I don't know how you are saying it is trading low.

And I doubt too many Sabres fans would say that it would be trading low on Mitts if the trade were Mitts for Helly.

I don’t think helly is a two year stop gap!

 

[Jim Bob]

I don’t think helly is a two year stop gap!

He's a UFA after the 23-24 season.

 

[Fjordy]

He's a UFA after the 23-24 season.

But there is also a chance to re-sign him.

 

[brian_griffin]

We certainly have the cap space to carry better depth players than league minimum/2-way contract players. Like you imply, you need players who are willing to sign here though.

I guess the Sabres could always trade for a cap dump for depth as long as they are serviceable.

I just want KA to be willing to spend more money if it makes sense.

My question was to the portion of your post I bolded.
Why do you feel Hinostroza is worth $2-2.5M on the open market?
I think that is 2x or a little less than 2x what his market worth is.

That Q is regardless of how Adams would value #29, what, if any excess Adams is willing to pay for #29, whether #29 is willing to sign in BUF, and independent of what the Sabres cap space is and/or Adams willing to spend it.

 

[Dingo44]

My question was to the portion of your post I bolded.
Why do you feel Hinostroza is worth $2-2.5M on the open market?
I think that is 2x or a little less than 2x what his market worth is.

That Q is regardless of how Adams would value #29, what, if any excess Adams is willing to pay for #29, whether #29 is willing to sign in BUF, and independent of what the Sabres cap space is and/or Adams willing to spend it.

This is all just a feeling but it seemed based on both what Adams said and Vinnie said they are both planning on him coming back next season. Not sure what that number will be but I'd bet on him returning other than some other team deciding to vastly overpay.

I know people can't find a spot for him but injuries happen and he can play all over our lineup and he's a good guy in the locker room and a good soldier with a lot of speed and tenacity. Seems to really like it here too.

 

[Chainshot]

Hinostroza as the 13 or 14 works. We know there will be injury and that he can inject speed and offer some playmaking with pace. All him being around does is create competition for playing time and also provides for the 40-50 games when there will be others out of the lineup with someone who we know can skate and produce some 5-on-5 offense at the NHL level.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Hinostroza as the 13 or 14 works. We know there will be injury and that he can inject speed and offer some playmaking with pace. All him being around does is create competition for playing time and also provides for the 40-50 games when there will be others out of the lineup with someone who we know can skate and produce some 5-on-5 offense at the NHL level.

If I'm Vinnie Hinostroza, why am I signing anywhere that, based on the roster construction, doesn't guarantee me a spot in the top-12? I'm sure there will be teams looking for cheap middle-six help.

For example, if Tampa doesn't re-sign Nick Paul, Hinostroza makes a ton of sense for them given their cap constraints.

 

[brian_griffin]

nylander us sn outlier…

you had a GM change…they don’t care as much about pkayers not theirs ehen it comes to trades.

Nylander was held back to try and strategize around the expansion draft. This affected his development.

What? Huh? Nylander was exempt from the VGK expansion draft in 2017 due to his ELC status & with only 2 pro seasons (AIK & Amerks). That would not have changed if he had played more games in BUF that season (which I believe he did not merit). Nor would his playing more games that season in BUF have influenced the Sabres protection list for the expansion draft.

He was no longer Sabres property for the Seattle draft.

I don't recall him earning / deserving any more playing time / opportunity with BUF during his tenure in the organization, despite the dearth of talent and/or depth at forward on the Sabres. Maybe a small portion of that could be attributed to coaching and/or management bias, but far and away the lion's share of Nylander's unremarkable development and performance for a Rd1#8 draftee is on him, solely.

This is all just a feeling but it seemed based on both what Adams said and Vinnie said they are both planning on him coming back next season. Not sure what that number will be but I'd bet on him returning other than some other team deciding to vastly overpay.

I know people can't find a spot for him but injuries happen and he can play all over our lineup and he's a good guy in the locker room and a good soldier with a lot of speed and tenacity. Seems to really like it here too.

I agree with everything you said above re: Hinostroza, and have posted the same exact stuff myself.

I was simply curious why one poster felt he was worth double, or more than double, his current contract on the open market, whether you want to include BUF with the other 31 NHL teams or not. I don't know that there's an NHL team out there who would offer him that much money in an open-market bidding "war". Maybe there is one, or two, but I don't see it, hence my question "why?" to the poster.

 

[DapperCam]

If I'm Vinnie Hinostroza, why am I signing anywhere that, based on the roster construction, doesn't guarantee me a spot in the top-12? I'm sure there will be teams looking for cheap middle-six help.

For example, if Tampa doesn't re-sign Nick Paul, Hinostroza makes a ton of sense for them given their cap constraints.

Agreed. In fact, if I were Hino I would take less money and term for a team I can get a guaranteed full time spot in the middle six. Then he can cash in on his next contract if he can put up 45 points with good defensive numbers.

 

[Chainshot]

Hinostroza is on record looking for stability. He and his wife have one young child and are expecting a second. That's not really in line with playing a year for a contender on a lower aav looking to cash in later. It's possible, just doesn't fit his recently stated goals.

 

[joshjull]

I really don’t think line combos are going to be an issue. For example you can easily swap Quinn/Olofsson if you really think it’ll make a big difference.

I actually don’t think they’re going to add anything at forward, unless they go looking for a 4C. The most expendable guy up front is probably Asplund, but he could easily be the in-house solution.

Asplund isn’t expendable. He and Girgs are our best defensive forwards. Peterka will not be competing with him for a roster spot.

Even if they just add a 4th line center from the outside. It makes it very hard for Peterka to make the opening night starting 12 forwards. Its not impossible but its certainly not a given.

I don’t think its a big deal if he starts in Rochester. It would be like Roy/Pommer starting 05-06 there. They still played 70 and 57 games respectively. Injuries will happen.

 

[Deleted member 331730]

Darcy Kuemper ; 6 mio / 3 years
John Klingberg ; 6 mio /3 years

I think 3 years is fine, I would think twice about longer. I'm not a friend of 4 year contracts or even longer.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I would sign a goalie but for no more than 3 years

 

[Gabrielor]

John Hayden(Buffalo) : re-sign as 13th forward with energy and grit 1k, 775k
Joshua Brown(Boston) : good depth dman, right shot 1y, 900k
Johan Larsson(Washington) : perfect 4th line center, re-make log line 2-3y,2-3m per

IF we can't trade for a rd:

P.K. Subban(New Jersey) : speed RD, on the older side 1y, 5-6m

IF we can't trade for a goalie:

Brayden Holtby(Dallas) 2-3y,5-6m per
or
MAF(Minnesota) 1-2y,5-6m per


I have 2 trades in mind for a goalie and a rd, so those 2 ufas may not be needed.


That's it. No need to overthink this summer. Keep it simple.

 

[CowbellConray]

Ondrej Palat - Everything we hoped Asplund would be (and Asplund is a good player in his own right). 3-4 years at 5 million. Could replace Hino and give us another middle six winger with jam

Of course we need RD and Goaltending, but just throwing out another player I've had on my radar.