Roster Speculation 2017-18 Part 3

[Icicle]

Obviously with 30 picks and 23 roster spots someone will have to go to the AHL. That someone could be Ullmark.

Vegas can take a bad goalie contract (1-2yrs left) and then have Ullmark step in then.

Your notion that Ennis/Moulson does not make sense for Vegas is shortsighted. Ennis or Moulson would be attractive to Vegas... for a price. That goes for virtually any bad contract in the league on 30 other teams.

Ullmark is definitely one of the only "valuable" pieces Vegas can pick from Buffalo due to our roster.

Every team has an Ullmark. The difference that has to be made is the value of our exposed players versus the other teams with marginal/high cap exposures only versus their up and coming goaltender who are arguably going to be similar. 3 of their 30 are going to be goalie picks, and they need a starter. They likely sign the back-up in UFA, so they have two or three minor league goalies they're looking at picking.

Is Buffalo the weakest or second weakest exposure list sans goalie that Vegas is looking at? Ennis, Moulson, Gorges, Falk, Deslauries, Kea, Austin isn't exactly an enticing list to look at.

It'll come down to whether they see an Ennis reclamation as an upside or Moulson as a capable scoring plug. If you expose Lehner I have a hard time believing he wouldn't be their instant pick.


I think our best chance going into it is trading Kane for a defenseman from another team + Ennis pick assurance is our best case scenario at the expansion draft. If no deal is made, yeah, Ullmark is likely gone, but losing him isn't the biggest loss for us, losing the opportunity to shed one of Ennis or Moulson's contracts is the loss we'd be looking at.

 

[thewookie1]

We'll bribe Vegas to take Ennis, probably with a 3rd or 4th

 

[OkimLom]

I protect Ullmark. I do not want to pay 4 million a year for 4 years for Lehner when still not sure what we have with him. There are a lot of goalies in and around his skill set that will be available and likely cheaper. Protect ROR,Okposo, Kane, Girgensons, Foligno, Carriere, and Larsson. Protect Risto, McCabe and Falk. Now Vegas will have to take money off our payroll if I have this figured right--and someone will tell me if I am wrong!

And yet we know what we have with Ullmark who recently came off two hip surgeries???

 

[sabrebuild]

And yet we know what we have with Ullmark who recently came off two hip surgeries???

I'm super confused as to why posters keep thinking losing ullmark is a big blow?

He looks ok. Just like 80 other guys that are not NHL starters.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

I'm super confused as to why posters keep thinking losing ullmark is a big blow?

He looks ok. Just like 80 other guys that are not NHL starters.

The blow is that we are going to lose him which hurts G depth while keeping all the crap contracts we have. Much rather dump Moulson or Ennis for a pick and maintain prospect depth at G and have more cap space.

 

[Der Jaeger]

And yet we know what we have with Ullmark who recently came off two hip surgeries???

Wasn't that two seasons ago?

 

[Dingo44]

And yet we know what we have with Ullmark who recently came off two hip surgeries???

I've read it's going to be pretty common where almost every goalie has hip surgeries at some point with no long term effects. And Ullmark sure doesn't seem hampered by them.

 

[Shootica]

I've read it's going to be pretty common where almost every goalie has hip surgeries at some point with no long term effects. And Ullmark sure doesn't seem hampered by them.

Yeah, it's a preventive surgery that allows goalies to play the butterfly without having hip problems down the road. If I remember right, it's because around two thirds of people naturally don't have a perfectly spherical femoral head which limits flexibility and can cause goalies' hip cartilage to grind away. The surgery cleans up the joint and makes it perfectly spherical.

If anything, it's a good sign for Ullmark's durability.

 

[sabrebuild]

The blow is that we are going to lose him which hurts G depth while keeping all the crap contracts we have. Much rather dump Moulson or Ennis for a pick and maintain prospect depth at G and have more cap space.

Getting rid of moulson or Ennis sure. But plenty of this talk is our goalie depth.... give me a break, he is an average prospect to this point. A goalie of his quality is always available for a ufa deal.

So if we want to say, the expansion draft must be a vehicle to get rid of moulson or Ennis or bogo to get more cap space, sure.

But I need no more filler on goalie prospect depth for a guy who can barely keep it together in the ahl.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Every team has an Ullmark. The difference that has to be made is the value of our exposed players versus the other teams with marginal/high cap exposures only versus their up and coming goaltender who are arguably going to be similar. 3 of their 30 are going to be goalie picks, and they need a starter. They likely sign the back-up in UFA, so they have two or three minor league goalies they're looking at picking.

Is Buffalo the weakest or second weakest exposure list sans goalie that Vegas is looking at? Ennis, Moulson, Gorges, Falk, Deslauries, Kea, Austin isn't exactly an enticing list to look at.

It'll come down to whether they see an Ennis reclamation as an upside or Moulson as a capable scoring plug. If you expose Lehner I have a hard time believing he wouldn't be their instant pick.


I think our best chance going into it is trading Kane for a defenseman from another team + Ennis pick assurance is our best case scenario at the expansion draft. If no deal is made, yeah, Ullmark is likely gone, but losing him isn't the biggest loss for us, losing the opportunity to shed one of Ennis or Moulson's contracts is the loss we'd be looking at.

How does everyone have an Ullmark? The only way you can say that is if you think he will be a bust and if you think he will be a bust, why? He has only showed otherwise in his time in the NHL.

If you're judging by his numbers in the AHL than you should realize that the Amerks are a clown show down there. If you think our D is bad in the NHL, go down the depth chart and imagine what Rochester is dealing with.

Ullmark is a lot better than most think, losing him would be our loss. So IMO not everyone has an Ullmark.

And yet we know what we have with Ullmark who recently came off two hip surgeries???

Reguardless 4 mil is a lot to spend on a goalie who loses probably around 6 games or more on average a year alone just from shootouts. Now think of all the times he forgot to hug the corners and easy shots went past him because he can't hug the post. Yes his numbers are good and hes an adequate goalie in the NHL and I would be fine with him coming back but for 4 mil with 4 years. No thank you. Fix those things and we can talk. If he's getting 4 mil than 2 years max as a placeholder.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Getting rid of moulson or Ennis sure. But plenty of this talk is our goalie depth.... give me a break, he is an average prospect to this point. A goalie of his quality is always available for a ufa deal.

So if we want to say, the expansion draft must be a vehicle to get rid of moulson or Ennis or bogo to get more cap space, sure.

But I need no more filler on goalie prospect depth for a guy who can barely keep it together in the ahl.

We have 0 prospect depth if both him and Cal are gone. Spin it any way you want but that's the truth...I don't mind it as long as we restock at the draft with good potnetial G's.

 

[sabrebuild]

We have 0 prospect depth if both him and Cal are gone. Spin it any way you want but that's the truth...I don't mind it as long as we restock at the draft with good potnetial G's.

There is no spin. It just doesn't matter, as you indicate in your last sentence.

Draft a goalie late every other year, you will be fine.

Lose ullmark to expansion and Petersen to ufa. Fine, go sign a niemi or darling or Murray or anyone else to backup Lehner. The point is you don't worry about the ullmark of the world because they are eminently replaceable and his case, he cost you very little in the first place.

If we were talking about a young star prospect, who has shown signs of special ability, sure let's talk. But this is like being worried you might lose your 4th strong running back.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

There is no spin. It just doesn't matter, as you indicate in your last sentence.

Draft a goalie late every other year, you will be fine.

Lose ullmark to expansion and Petersen to ufa. Fine, go sign a niemi or darling or Murray or anyone else to backup Lehner. The point is you don't worry about the ullmark of the world because they are eminently replaceable and his case, he cost you very little in the first place.

If we were talking about a young star prospect, who has shown signs of special ability, sure let's talk. But this is like being worried you might lose your 4th strong running back.

As I posted in the draft thread, this draft a goalie late myth is a bit of a myth.

Hit rates for starters over 8years....

Total hit rate per round of starter or borderline/potential starters:
1st - 40%
2nd - 36%
3rd - 13%
4th - 12%
5th - 2.8%
6th - 3%
7th - 3.7%

We need to use our BUF 3rd on goalie latest if Cal and Ullmark are both gone. If it's just one then maybe the WSH 3rd or our 4th. Your chance of catching a starter from 4th and onwards is minimal - it seems 20 to 25% of all drafted starters slip to 4th in any given draft you probably have 2-3 starters on average.

 

[LetsDoughBuffalo]

Here's where I'm at heading into next year:

Girgensons - O'Reilly - Okposo
Carrier - Eichel - Ennis (Baptiste)
Kane - Reinhart - Nylander
Moulson - Larsson - Foligno

XXX - Ristolainen
McCabe - Bogosian
Gorges - Antipin

Lehner
Ullmark

- Top 9 are not a set 1st, 2nd, and 3rd line
- How we're going to acquire XXX, I have no idea (Kane +?)
- Guessing Vegas takes Ennis, my replacement would be Baptiste

 

[OkimLom]

I've read it's going to be pretty common where almost every goalie has hip surgeries at some point with no long term effects. And Ullmark sure doesn't seem hampered by them.

Wasn't that two seasons ago?

My comment was because poster is saying that we don't know what we have in Lehner, but they are pretty confident in throwing their confidence into Ullmark who came back from surgery on both hips last year ahead of schedule and Started one year in the AHL.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Many here are undervaluing Ullmark, a prospect who was developed the right way, multiple seasons in the SHL followed by 2 seasons as a #1 in the AHL with a 20 game stint in the NHL. He has the potential to be our #1. You hope when you draft players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds they make it to the point of development he's at now. He is well worth trading a 2nd/3rd rounder to Vegas to pass on him in the ED.

 

[SundherDome]

I'm not wasting a pick or decent prospect to keep Ullmark. I believe he has starter capability around the level of a touch better than Nilsson. I would let Vegas choose whoever they want. There are about 4-5 goalies who are available they will most likely take. If Vegas would take Ennis and we add a guy like Martin to fill out their ahl backend then do it. We should be using our extra second and third to move up and grab a guy we like who slips

 

[Team Cozens]

Here's where I'm at heading into next year:

Girgensons - O'Reilly - Okposo
Carrier - Eichel - Ennis (Baptiste)
Kane - Reinhart - Nylander
Moulson - Larsson - Foligno

XXX - Ristolainen
McCabe - Bogosian
Gorges - Antipin

Lehner
Ullmark

- Top 9 are not a set 1st, 2nd, and 3rd line
- How we're going to acquire XXX, I have no idea (Kane +?)
- Guessing Vegas takes Ennis, my replacement would be Baptiste

I don't know how or when, but Moulson will not be on this team next season. Worst case he sits in the press box all year. We need speed and youth.

 

[Dingo44]

I think people are forgetting Ennis comes WITH the recipe for Enzo Sauce. With all of the gourmet restaurants and celebrity chefs with places in Vegas having the ability to feature that throughout the arena is INVALUABLE.

 

[Fezzy126]

Here's where I'm at heading into next year:

Girgensons - O'Reilly - Okposo
Carrier - Eichel - Ennis (Baptiste)
Kane - Reinhart - Nylander
Moulson - Larsson - Foligno

XXX - Ristolainen
McCabe - Bogosian
Gorges - Antipin

Lehner
Ullmark

- Top 9 are not a set 1st, 2nd, and 3rd line
- How we're going to acquire XXX, I have no idea (Kane +?)
- Guessing Vegas takes Ennis, my replacement would be Baptiste

I'm probably the only one left on these boards that feels this way, but I haven't given up on Ennis yet.

His 1st two full years in the league (2010/11 & 2011/12), he had positive GF and CF was close to 50%. Also, his WOWY's show that he made those around him better for the most part. Then in the next few years:
2011-12 - Rotten core, No centers whatsoever (Luke Adam anyone?)
2012-13 - Tank Season #1
2013-14 - Tank Season #2
2014-15 - Injuries & Bylsma
2015-16 - Injuries & Blysma

It's tough to find any players in the last 5 years with strong ES metrics. Perhaps Ennis is cooked by injuries, and he certainly isn't a part of the core, so I wouldn't lose sleep if he's gone. However, I'd really like to try him with Reinhart with competent coaching for a year. Reinhart was paired with Jaedon Descheneau in juniors and the two had fantastic chemistry. Stylistically, JD is extremely similar to Ennis...

Carrier - O'Reilly - Okposo
Girgensons - Eichel - (Baptiste)
Kane - Reinhart - Ennis
Foligno - Larsson - (Bailey)

McCabe - Ristolainen
XXX - Antipin
Gorges - Bogosian

Ideally, I'm signing a couple of cheaper veteran RW options, I'd rather Bailey and Baptiste (and Fasching for that matter) earn it. The only two players that I don't think can be resurrected are Gorges & Moulson. I guess if there's no way I can get rid of Moulson, I'd stick him on the Eichel line and hope for the best.

 

[Djp]

What kind of contract do you think Lehner might get?

I don't think he will get something that will get the Sabres into cap trouble.

Lehner gets a 1 yr contract for about $3M. Buffalo has his rights for 2 yrs. No reason for him to get a 4 yr contract.

Buffalo has his rights for 30 days if he deviates or after Jan 1 thru 15 aug.

Every team has an Ullmark. The difference that has to be made is the value of our exposed players versus the other teams with marginal/high cap exposures only versus their up and coming goaltender who are arguably going to be similar. 3 of their 30 are going to be goalie picks, and they need a starter. They likely sign the back-up in UFA, so they have two or three minor league goalies they're looking at picking.

I dont think every team has a goalie like Ullmark who has 1 yr of waiver exrmption remaining.

Thst is why Ullmark is likely their first choice unless buffalo was going to make a trade and go with 4 dmen protected. If they go with 8 then oe of the 2 extra forwards exposed would be taken.

For them to take Ennis, buffalo will have to offer vegas something extra like one of their unsigned college players and a 3rd.

It might have been different were Murray the GM.

I think our best chance going into it is trading Kane for a defenseman from another team + Ennis pick assurance is our best case scenario at the expansion draft. If no deal is made, yeah, Ullmark is likely gone, but losing him isn't the biggest loss for us, losing the opportunity to shed one of Ennis or Moulson's contracts is the loss we'd be looking at.

As I said of buffalo acquires a Dmen then vegas picks one of goligno, girgensons, carrier, larsson that is exposed.

Kane cam buffalo a solid top 4 Dman. They need to move Ennis or Moulson in order to sign kane.

Reinhart for Hanifin also works

I think buffalo could get a decent Dman for exempt pieces and future picks.

 

[BananaSquad]

Not sure i see Nylander in Buffalo to start next season, needs to be in roch.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Nylander isn't ready. Likely needs at least a half season in Rochester if not the whole year. He's a teenager until March. Lehner doesn't deserve more then $3.5 mil. But people need to be realistic, even mediocre goalies get 4+ mil AAV long term. I'm not married to the idea that Lehner is it for the foreseeable future so if there is a way to improve the team in net I'm all ears. The best way to get goalie production is having your starter on an ELC or at the very least a cheap second deal. Lehner still has not shown to be a true #1 capable of taking a team far in the playoffs (hell he hasn't even taken a team to it) and yet he's in line for a big contract. The gift that keeps on giving. Samsonov would have been incredible. Instead our jack ass Murray trades it for Lehner we could have finished bottom 8 with anyone in net and Samsonov would be ready for the job by 18-19. I wonder if there's a way to still acquire him. Washington has an embarrassment of riches in net.

 

[Paxon]

Nylander isn't ready. Likely needs at least a half season in Rochester if not the whole year. He's a teenager until March. Lehner doesn't deserve more then $3.5 mil. But people need to be realistic, even mediocre goalies get 4+ mil AAV long term. I'm not married to the idea that Lehner is it for the foreseeable future so if there is a way to improve the team in net I'm all ears. The best way to get goalie production is having your starter on an ELC or at the very least a cheap second deal. Lehner still has not shown to be a true #1 capable of taking a team far in the playoffs (hell he hasn't even taken a team to it) and yet he's in line for a big contract. The gift that keeps on giving. Samsonov would have been incredible. Instead our jack ass Murray trades it for Lehner we could have finished bottom 8 with anyone in net and Samsonov would be ready for the job by 18-19. I wonder if there's a way to still acquire him. Washington has an embarrassment of riches in net.

Samsonov is 20, still in the KHL. And no, it's not just because Washington has Holby and Grubauer (who they're very likely to lose in the draft). You can count on your hand the number of teenagers who've stepped into NHL nets in recent memory. I get what you're saying, as I didn't like the trade then or now, but then you go and exaggerate every point.

 

[Jim Bob]

Many here are undervaluing Ullmark, a prospect who was developed the right way, multiple seasons in the SHL followed by 2 seasons as a #1 in the AHL with a 20 game stint in the NHL. He has the potential to be our #1. You hope when you draft players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds they make it to the point of development he's at now. He is well worth trading a 2nd/3rd rounder to Vegas to pass on him in the ED.

I'm not wasting a pick or decent prospect to keep Ullmark. I believe he has starter capability around the level of a touch better than Nilsson. I would let Vegas choose whoever they want. There are about 4-5 goalies who are available they will most likely take. If Vegas would take Ennis and we add a guy like Martin to fill out their ahl backend then do it. We should be using our extra second and third to move up and grab a guy we like who slips

The Sabres goaltending depth is shallow right now.

If they were to lose both Petersen and Ullmark, that would pretty much just leave them with Kasdorf and Johansson in the pipeline and that is it.

Although, that wouldn't be the worst situation in the world to recover from.

Step 1 would be to draft a goalie or two in the 2017 Draft after not taking a goalie in 2016 or 2015.

Step 2 would be signing both a backup for Lehner and a vet for Rochester to push Kasdorf and Johansson and make them earn playing time. Also, that would provide depth in the event that a goalie in Buffalo goes down.