Roster Speculation 2015-16 Pt. III

[JLewyB]

IMO any statistic from last season should be thrown out.

I'll agree with this somewhat when it comes to Larsson. He only scored against bottom 5 teams for the most part. Our post TDL schedule was a joke.

 

[joshjull]

perhaps, but the cap is really not a factor for us for the next few years. Most of our better players are signed or on ELC's. 5 years from now is when we could run into cap casualties. I think you take a chance on him to see if he can show anything early on and get a trade. I hate the idea of paying someone to play for someone else.

We will get hit with a cap crunch well before 5 years from now.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Most people seem to think that Girgensons is the player that Larsson actually is

1) Girgs is 2 years younger than Larson, so that might be true now, but who knows what Girgs will become. Higher ceiling for Girgs IMO

2) Larsson only played 18 games where he had a significant role (over 15 mins), so stats aren't really all that valid. WAY too small of a sample to compare the two. After a whole season, Girgs numbers could be much closer OR much further from Larsson's - we don't know. You're certainty to the point of laughing at people who disagree is puzzling and needlessly antagonistic, especially considering that all of Larsson's production was against the worst teams.

3) How can you laugh at people for not watching the last 18 games last season - they were brutally boring and those are the only games where Larson had a non-4th line role. I literally tuned in just to watch Larsson and Bogo but I could barely watch an entire game that whole stretch.

That said, I agree that Larsson is currently probably the best all-around player we have at the moment, though I believe Girgs has more room to grow than Larsson does.

 

[Matt Ress]

Larsson is being overrated right now. Great player, very dynamic but won't start the season at 1C because he was not the Sabres best player last season and won't be the best C on opening night. Great idea just taken too far.

 

[joshjull]

I still think they'll have Girgensons as the 1C but those numbers speak well for our future. Larsson is going to be a great player for us. It ultimately allows us to put Girgensons on the wing while Larsson is the center on the Selke line.

Not really sure how Larsson in the long run will ultimately be our top defensive center or the center tasked with the toughest match ups with Eichel and Reinhart in the mix.

 

[tmack224]

I would love to see Murray get into the top 10.

Grigorenko, 21 and 51 to get #9 from SJ and take on a cap hit

Use #9, #31, Larsson, and Pysyk to get OEL

 

[Jame]

1) Girgs is 2 years younger than Larson, so that might be true now, but who knows what Girgs will become. Higher ceiling for Girgs IMO

2) Larsson only played 18 games where he had a significant role (over 15 mins), so stats aren't really all that valid. WAY too small of a sample to compare the two. After a whole season, Girgs numbers could be much closer OR much further from Larsson's - we don't know. You're certainty to the point of laughing at people who disagree is puzzling and needlessly antagonistic, especially considering that all of Larsson's production was against the worst teams.

3) How can you laugh at people for not watching the last 18 games last season - they were brutally boring and those are the only games where Larson had a non-4th line role. I literally tuned in just to watch Larsson and Bogo but I could barely watch an entire game that whole stretch.

That said, I agree that Larsson is currently probably the best all-around player we have at the moment, though I believe Girgs has more room to grow than Larsson does.

1. Who knows? Some people put some effort into it... I felt Larsson would be the player he is becoming over a year ago when he put up a measley 4 points in 28 games. It was all there for anyone who wanted to see it. Puck possession, hockey IQ, hockey strength, board work, playmaking. He was just saddled on the worst team ever, with linemates that belonged in the ECHL. Larsson's emergence at the end of the season wasn't a surprise, it was a forgone conclusion for me. I was referring to him as Oreilly-lite a year ago... he's just starting to prove that we may be able to remove the "lite".... and Girgensons is 18 months younger.

2. The stats are plenty valid. The underlying advanced metrics in possession, dzone competency and playmaking have been there since the 2013-14 season. My "certainty" (as you seem to want to call it) will remain what it has always been, a well developed eye and an appreciation of validating and questioning what is seen with what's available in the data. As far as antagonistic... it's the internet, don't be so sensitive.

All his points weren't against the worst teams.... 7 of his 16 points were against the worst teams.... wait, you mean the #1 center on a terrible team was producing a good portion of his points vs terrible teams? Holy insights batman.

3. Im not laughing at anyone for not watching games... not sure where you got that from. But I do appreciate when someone clarifies that they didn't watch the games.

Why do you think Girgensons has more room to grow than Larsson?

 

[Jame]

Not really sure how Larsson in the long run will ultimately be our top defensive center or the center tasked with the toughest match ups with Eichel and Reinhart in the mix.

Dan Bylsma and Jordan Staal say hi...

 

[tsujimoto74]

I still think they'll have Girgensons as the 1C but those numbers speak well for our future. Larsson is going to be a great player for us. It ultimately allows us to put Girgensons on the wing while Larsson is the center on the Selke line.

Doubtful. First, Selke caliber players are in your top 6. Second, IMO, Reinhart is going to end up our best defensive center, and even if he doesn't (let's say Larsson or Girgensons ends up a bit better in that regard), it's a lot more common to see top 6 lines pitted against each other than to see a coach put his 3rd line out against the opponent's 1st constantly. The standard right now seems to be that you want your top lines to be able to shut down the opponent's, or at least go head-to-head and out score them. Unless Larsson overtakes one of Reinhart/Eichel, I can't imagine we'll see him tasked with more responsibility than both.

I like Larsson. I think he'll be a versatile middle 6 player who'll take secondary defensive matchups and perform very well in that role, probably be one of the guys you put out on the ice late in a game to protect a narrow lead, etc., but I don't think he'll be getting that amount or difficulty of minutes on a consistent basis.

 

[Jame]

Doubtful. First, Selke caliber players are in your top 6. Second, IMO, Reinhart is going to end up our best defensive center, and even if he doesn't (let's say Larsson or Girgensons ends up a bit better in that regard), it's a lot more common to see top 6 lines pitted against each other than to see a coach put his 3rd line out against the opponent's 1st constantly. The standard right now seems to be that you want your top lines to be able to shut down the opponent's, or at least go head-to-head and out score them. Unless Larsson overtakes one of Reinhart/Eichel, I can't imagine we'll see him tasked with more responsibility than both.

I like Larsson. I think he'll be a versatile middle 6 player who'll take secondary defensive matchups and perform very well in that role, probably be one of the guys you put out on the ice late in a game to protect a narrow lead, etc., but I don't think he'll be getting that amount or difficulty of minutes on a consistent basis.

And there in lies the incredible value in a player like Larsson or Oreilly. They can take top line center minutes, shift to top line winger/possession players, and rotate down into depth 2 way centers.

Larsson can start as the #1 center between Moulson and Ennis.... as Eichel takes over that role, Larsson can move to LW as a 2 way cog in that line a la Jochen.

Girgs can do the same on a line with Reinhart.

Ultimately when depth is needed in the post season, either one can shift down into a third line center spot to expand the lineups scoring depth, while maintaining 2 way competency throughout the lineup.

again... we grow from:

Moulson-Larsson-Ennis
Kane-Reinhart-Girgensons
Foligno-Eichel-Gionta
xxxx-Grigorenko-xxxx

to:

Larsson-Eichel-Ennis - elite 2 way scoring line
Kane-Reinhart-Girgensons - elite 2 way shutdown line
Moulson-Grigorenko-Gionta - feast on their dead carcasses
xxxx-xxxx-xxxx

 

[Bps21*]

Larsson went from the most underrated player on the team to the most overrated overnight.

 

[joshjull]

Dan Bylsma and Jordan Staal say hi...

Staal played a ton at ES (as either the 3rd line center or on Malkin's line) because Crosby and Malkin were not suited to that defensive role. I love Larsson but you've gone way off in cloud cuckoo land.

 

[stokes84]

1. Who knows? Some people put some effort into it... I felt Larsson would be the player he is becoming over a year ago when he put up a measley 4 points in 28 games. It was all there for anyone who wanted to see it. Puck possession, hockey IQ, hockey strength, board work, playmaking. He was just saddled on the worst team ever, with linemates that belonged in the ECHL. Larsson's emergence at the end of the season wasn't a surprise, it was a forgone conclusion for me. I was referring to him as Oreilly-lite a year ago... he's just starting to prove that we may be able to remove the "lite".... and Girgensons is 18 months younger.

2. The stats are plenty valid. The underlying advanced metrics in possession, dzone competency and playmaking have been there since the 2013-14 season. My "certainty" (as you seem to want to call it) will remain what it has always been, a well developed eye and an appreciation of validating and questioning what is seen with what's available in the data. As far as antagonistic... it's the internet, don't be so sensitive.

All his points weren't against the worst teams.... 7 of his 16 points were against the worst teams.... wait, you mean the #1 center on a terrible team was producing a good portion of his points vs terrible teams? Holy insights batman.

3. Im not laughing at anyone for not watching games... not sure where you got that from. But I do appreciate when someone clarifies that they didn't watch the games.

Why do you think Girgensons has more room to grow than Larsson?

"A well developed eye".

Give yourself a cookie. You can't really take yourself that seriously?! Should we talk about all of the times your "well developed eye" let you down?

And of course Girgensons has more room to grow than Larsson. He's younger, bigger, faster. AKA, a better athlete. This isn't rocket science. You don't need a "well developed eye" to see that.

 

[Jacob582]

This just in. Zadorov doesn't look chubby in his tux photo with Grigo and Makki.....he's making the team!

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[sabrebuild]

Dammit Zadorov you just pissed away your career earnings in your inevitable divorce.

 

[Jame]

"A well developed eye".

Give yourself a cookie. You can't really take yourself that seriously?! Should we talk about all of the times your "well developed eye" let you down?

Nom nom nom
Thanks

And yes, I do take my hockey opinions seriously. So when i come blustering in with my commentary you can be assured it's coming from a serious place.... don't worry, it's been quite clear for years that your opinions don't come from a similar place.

We can talk about any let downs you like. There are plenty.

And of course Girgensons has more room to grow than Larsson. He's younger, bigger, faster. AKA, a better athlete. This isn't rocket science. You don't need a "well developed eye" to see that.

yea... that's totally it. Handling a puck and anything else actually related to the game of hockey has nothing to do with it.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Aren't we going a tad overboard with Larsson here?

 

[Jame]

Staal played a ton at ES (as either the 3rd line center or on Malkin's line) because Crosby and Malkin were not suited to that defensive role. I love Larsson but you've gone way off in cloud cuckoo land.

Can you be a little more specific about what you think is cloud cuckoo land about my Larsson opinions?

I wonder if this will be very much like how you felt about my high opinion of a 37 point Kesler and how he was a much better player than Derek Roy. You thought that was cuckoo too.

 

[Weaves]

I just feel it would be a mistake if we traded Grigorenko. I feel he produced very well in his first year of AHL hockey, and his misuse early on his career has clouded the judgement of him. I think that he has untapped potential that this team should take advantage of.

With that said, I am not sure if he will/should stay at C, but I would love him in the top nine either as a C or a winger. Probably could help on the PP as well, and him being a lefty shot is also beneficial, with the abundance of RHS in our system on the wings.

I truly do not care what happens with Hodgson, I just don't think Grigs should be traded/demoted or what have you in favor of Hodgson. You don't abandon a prospect at 21 with oodles of talent.

 

[stokes84]

Can you be a little more specific about what you think is cloud cuckoo land about my Larsson opinions?

I wonder if this will be very much like how you felt about my high opinion of a 37 point Kesler and how he was a much better player than Derek Roy. You thought that was cuckoo too.

Almost as if you predicted that Derek Roy would have a career altering injury. Good eye.

 

[Jame]

Aren't we going a tad overboard with Larsson here?

I want to understand specifically what is going overboard?

Is projecting him as the opening 1st line center, who will obviously give way Eichel and Reinhart as the top centers, going overboard?

Is projecting that he could shift to wing and remain in the top 6 as a 2 way puck possession player whose game would support the younger talent, going overboard?

Is calling him O'reilly-lite, and stating that it looks like he could shed the "lite", going overboard?

I think he has the game to be a top 6 player on a contender. I think he has the game to bring A LOT OF what we'd be trading assets to get Ryan Oreilly for.... without the massive contract.

In a top 6 role, similar to Oreilly's in Colorado (moving center to wing as needed), I see no reason Larsson couldn't get into the 50 point range, considering the talent he'd be playing with.

This is Sekera redux.

 

[Jame]

Almost as if you predicted that Derek Roy would have a career altering injury. Good eye.

That would make sense if you were never able to see the cavern wide holes in his game. The injury is an easy excuse... And in the context of the comment, ignores the fact that many didn't see Kesler for the complete package that he was.

 

[old kummelweck]

Only a short 120 days before hockey season starts...

 

[BowieSabresFan]

I want to understand specifically what is going overboard?

Is projecting him as the opening 1st line center, who will obviously give way Eichel and Reinhart as the top centers, going overboard?

Is projecting that he could shift to wing and remain in the top 6 as a 2 way puck possession player whose game would support the younger talent, going overboard?

Is calling him O'reilly-lite, and stating that it looks like he could shed the "lite", going overboard?

I think he has the game to be a top 6 player on a contender. I think he has the game to bring A LOT OF what we'd be trading assets to get Ryan Oreilly for.... without the massive contract.

In a top 6 role, similar to Oreilly's in Colorado (moving center to wing as needed), I see no reason Larsson couldn't get into the 50 point range, considering the talent he'd be playing with.

This is Sekera redux.

Jame,

Fair enough response, and I guess I do need to elaborate. There is a chance Larsson could eventually be the player you are predicting/envisioning. Here is where I differ somewhat from your opinion.

1. I do not see Larsson as the starting 1C this coming year, though I understand your reasoning. I see Girgensons more in that role. I see Larsson being somewhere on the third line for now. We'll see. Long-term, if we do not get O'Reilly, I see Larsson more in the 3C spot, and Girgensons in the top 6 winger role.

2. I'd be cautious with even calling Larsson "O'Reilly lite." In my eyes, he still has a ways to go to get there. Let's face it, he's played a good 68 games or so, but has a lot more to prove. Will he get where you envision? We'll see, and I actually hope you are right.