Roster Speculation 2014-2015, Part X

[tsujimoto74]

Continued from here.

Click to read more...

 

[Matt Ress]

Anyone think that the collection of big bodies might leave the club a bit short on skill? I'm not sure of it, just throwing it on the table. Maybe there will be a nice balance but, 2 or 3 skill guys may not be able to generate the necessary offense to win games. Yes, the Kings but, I could argue Tampa and Chicago.

 

[wunderpanda]

Anyone think that the collection of big bodies might leave the club a bit short on skill? I'm not sure of it, just throwing it on the table. Maybe there will be a nice balance but, 2 or 3 skill guys may not be able to generate the necessary offense to win games. Yes, the Kings but, I could argue Tampa and Chicago.

I'm unclear what you mean by *skill guys*. You mean one way guys like Kessel?

If you do, I think there is only room for one player like that among the forwards and one power play specialist on defense. By the same thinking, there is only room for one purely defensive specialist in the forward group. The 14 other players on the team need some degree of 2 way, 200 foot play.

I am using extremes, sorry if I misunderstood.

 

[TehDoak]

Anyone think that the collection of big bodies might leave the club a bit short on skill? I'm not sure of it, just throwing it on the table. Maybe there will be a nice balance but, 2 or 3 skill guys may not be able to generate the necessary offense to win games. Yes, the Kings but, I could argue Tampa and Chicago.

The key is finding the mix. You don't need all graders, but you need at least a few to make room for the smaller skilled guys.

 

[Matt Ress]

I appreciate you guys being gentle. I fully expected to get roasted haha. Good points, though. I guess I get impatient at times with the rebuild. The balance is probably key and frankly, I'd rather have no Kessels. Hopefully the Sabres can secure some guys with both but, even without any blockbusters, the roster is shaping up nicely.

 

[brian_griffin]

Odd. I feel the Sabres are not big enough.

Other than Foligno and Kane, who in the top-9 forwards has either any size or a truly physical game?

Whom do you expect to be up with the big club from Rochester playing in the top-9?
Any remaining size/depth will be on the 4th line.

The Sabres will not ask/expect Reinhart or McEichel to play physically. When you add Gionta, Ennis, and possibly Varone (who can slot up and down the lineup) as small players in the top nine, I feel BUF is one forward short (no pun intended).

I feel BUF needs another physcial forward in the fold for next season. If not, then I guess Girgs has the role by default.

====
edit: I agree the Sabres are short on skill. BUt it has nothing to do with too many big bodies, IMO. (And they are working on the skill gap as the highest priority.)

 

[Jame]

Odd. I feel the Sabres are not big enough.

Other than Foligno and Kane, who in the top-9 forwards has either any size or a truly physical game?

Whom do you expect to be up with the big club from Rochester playing in the top-9?
Any remaining size/depth will be on the 4th line.

The Sabres will not ask/expect Reinhart or McEichel to play physically. When you add Gionta, Ennis, and possibly Varone (who can slot up and down the lineup) as small players in the top nine, I feel BUF is one forward short (no pun intended).

I feel BUF needs another physcial forward in the fold for next season. If not, then I guess Girgs has the role by default.

I agree. But i think it's somewhere they will get over time. As the young skill matures, and the vet skill moves on (moulson, gionta, ennis).

 

[Matt Ress]

Hmmm. Good points. I was looking at it from the wrong direction. Now that you mention it, as much potential and ability that Moulson has, I don't love him in the top 6. I know TM signed him to a top 6 contract but, I just don't see it. Sometimes it's strange to me the expectations they have for some players like a Grigorenko relative to a Moulson. How one could have a secure top 6 spot and the other is lucky to get his thruway tolls paid. Sorry if I'm all over the place, I'm pre coffee.

 

[Husko]

Odd. I feel the Sabres are not big enough.

Other than Foligno and Kane, who in the top-9 forwards has either any size or a truly physical game?

Whom do you expect to be up with the big club from Rochester playing in the top-9?
Any remaining size/depth will be on the 4th line.

The Sabres will not ask/expect Reinhart or McEichel to play physically. When you add Gionta, Ennis, and possibly Varone (who can slot up and down the lineup) as small players in the top nine, I feel BUF is one forward short (no pun intended).

I feel BUF needs another physcial forward in the fold for next season. If not, then I guess Girgs has the role by default.

====
edit: I agree the Sabres are short on skill. BUt it has nothing to do with too many big bodies, IMO. (And they are working on the skill gap as the highest priority.)

Zegmus. Longterm Fasching looks like a power forward if he pans out. If we get Eichel he doesn't lay physical but he's big and uses his body. Carrier is also big, though he's not a physical guy. Heck even Grigorenko has good size. And Larsson plays like he's a big guy even if he's not.

If you're just talking about next year I sort of see the point. But I'd value getting kids playing time over adding a top 9 winger with size for next season, but that's just me.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Love to see Murray sign Casey Bailey.

And Mike Reilly, for that matter.

 

[ZeroPT*]

If Rielly doesn't sign for Minny I will be gobsmacked.

His dad is a minority owner. He's as good as gone there. I don't know if I really want him though. He's a bit one dimensional.

 

[Djp]

From Z1p15---You're wrong. I can honestly say that I've never seen someone who puts in as much time thinking about this stuff as you do who, notwithstanding that fact, so frequently arrives at the wrong conclusion.

From Vogls Sabres notbook from Saturday

He talked about signing of college UFAs and talked to Schaller about it:


“Whether you’re going to be a top-line guy or a bottom-line guy, it’s what teams have at each skill set,” Schaller said. “If there’s a lot of prospects, maybe you want to go someplace else."

“You’ve got agents to do that for you so you can just worry about your game, but you’re always interested. It’s one of those things where if you’re hanging around at night you’ll look at a couple rosters.”

That same exact mentality will be in the minds of the CHL players if they think the team that drafted them---they have no real shot at being a top 2 player at their position. ther is a big difference in lifetime earning potential over the course of your career.

Zip15---Winnipeg has Schiefele (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Ladd (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Little (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Wheeler (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Armia (high 1st rounder and you used him in your example, so I will too), Ehlers (high 1st round pick, far better prospect than Lemieux). There's six right there. Where's Brendan's top-6 spot, DJP?

He was traded---he didnt pick Winnipeg---so he can still choose not to sign for the same reason.

Lets look at winnpeg....

Little is a UFA when Lemieux still has 1 year left on an ELC
Wheeler is a UFA when Lemieux is done with his ELC
Ladd has 1 yr left before being a UFA

all 3 will not be resigned.

that leaves Schiefele, Lowry, Armia, Ehlers + other prospects in their system

that gives Lemieux a fighting shot. None of the other prospects are high 1st round picks where they are usually given more of a shot to play over a 2nd round or later pick.

With buffalo--Reinhart. Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, 2015 1st + other prospects were still on their ELCs or not yet signed an ELC. There was talk of Buffalo trying to trade for Nichuskin, Larkin, or Mantha. That is a bigger log jam he would be facing.



You tell me why didnt he want to sign with Buffalo if a contract was offered ??????

DOTCOMUNISM---The idea that Lemieux wasn't going to sign with Buffalo is very much overblown. It was initially reported after the trade that Lemieux had refused to sign. Then, after that, it was reported that the Sabres had already offered him an ELC to sign and that he had turned it down. The idea that turning down an ELC, which is what the later information indicated was actually the case, means that he categorically wasn't going to sign with Buffalo, requires quite a bit of a logical leap. The much simpler answer is that Lemieux wanted an ELC that was going to pay him more than the one that Buffalo offered. Don't forget that Lemieux seemed to think that he should've been picked in the first round. He might've just wanted an ELC that he felt was more in line with where he felt he should've been drafted. By waiting to sign his ELC, he could boost his value and increase the money he gets, by playing well in juniors.

I highly doubt they somehow low balled him.

What I dont know if there is a big drop in contracts given to players drafted in 2nd vs 1st round. In the NBA 1sts get certain money, 2nds have no guarentee in their contracts.

based on base salary the difference between mid 1st and high 2nd isnt that much at all--maybe $50,000 difference in base. The issue may be boinus incentives and wether they can be reached or not.

 

[Djp]

If Rielly doesn't sign for Minny I will be gobsmacked.

His dad is a minority owner. He's as good as gone there. I don't know if I really want him though. He's a bit one dimensional.

The article also said that the GM is now in Edmonton and the trainer who worked with him is in Detroit (IIRC).

I would say Edmonton, Detroit, and Minnesota are the favorites in this

 

[Husko]

I can't wait for McEichel to refuse to sign because we have Reinhart, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Compher, and Larsson in the pipeline.

 

[brian_griffin]

Zegmus. Longterm Fasching looks like a power forward if he pans out. If we get Eichel he doesn't lay physical but he's big and uses his body. Carrier is also big, though he's not a physical guy. Heck even Grigorenko has good size. And Larsson plays like he's a big guy even if he's not.

If you're just talking about next year I sort of see the point. But I'd value getting kids playing time over adding a top 9 winger with size for next season, but that's just me.

Yes, I acknowledged Zegmus would have the role next year by default if they did not bring anyone else in.

I will keep an eye on Fasching - I recall the excitement for him and D-Lo after the LA trade given their size. I have seen very little of him (YouTube) to date, but hopefully will catch some NCAA playoffs the next few weeks. My limited assessment is he plays positionally like a Vanek / Andreychuk, but with a poorer shot (than Vanek) and not as deft hands (than Andreychuk).

Grigorenko - I agree he has size, but not sure BUF is asking him to use it to make space. And I agree Larsson plays bigger than he is, but I don't know what his role will be in BUF next year. Larsson could be that option.

I agree McDavid and Eichel both do a good job of using their bodies to protect the puck. Watched some highlights of the two this w/e, but don't claim to follow / know anywhere close to other posters here. I see a lot of Gil Perreault in McDavid, even the higher elbows and the full body extensions (legs, arms, stick) at full speed while still maintaining balance / puck control. But I see both of them as more north-south (though full 200') and don't expect those guys to be routinely running interference / creating space / digging pucks in corners.

I guess I see 3 lines where there is a center, a sizable winger, and a winger with more finesse / puck posession. Something like:

Kane - McEichel - Ennis
Moulson - Girgs - XXX (XXX = Larsson, Grigs, Hodgson, each on off-wing, or move one of those three to center and have Girgs move to RW)
Foligno - Reinhart - Gionta

Of course, someone may be moved out, or D-Lo or one of the Rochester forwards moves up from the 4th line.

Bottom line: I support moving a couple forwards for a young, bigger wing with a right-handed shot, or acquiring a talented RFA or even a UFA.

• Not clear to me Kaleta can be penciled in the top-9 (and I like his game).
• Stafford return?
• Jagr? He needs to check the box on the Sabres sweater, and you promise to move him at the deadline, and Pegula-bucks will make him happy.
• Jack Skille? Not enough talent there, even for BUF.

 

[Djp]

Odd. I feel the Sabres are not big enough.

Other than Foligno and Kane, who in the top-9 forwards has either any size or a truly physical game?

Whom do you expect to be up with the big club from Rochester playing in the top-9?
Any remaining size/depth will be on the 4th line.

The Sabres will not ask/expect Reinhart or McEichel to play physically. When you add Gionta, Ennis, and possibly Varone (who can slot up and down the lineup) as small players in the top nine, I feel BUF is one forward short (no pun intended).

I feel BUF needs another physcial forward in the fold for next season. If not, then I guess Girgs has the role by default.

====
edit: I agree the Sabres are short on skill. BUt it has nothing to do with too many big bodies, IMO. (And they are working on the skill gap as the highest priority.)

Im not worried about this that much

Fasching is in the future plans.
I see them getting another winger who can be physical.
Girgesnons and Grigorenko have size.

If they draft eichel--he has size.

Kane one one line, Foligno on another, and then a winger for the other line with size

 

[Husko]

I'd LOVE to add Jagr.

1 year X 10 million.

 

[brian_griffin]

I'd LOVE to add Jagr.

1 year X 10 million.

As I said, he needs the Sabres sweater to add to his collection. You figure 2 teams per season for the next few years, he might be able to get them all...

 

[Zman5778]

As far as the physicality talk:

Don't forget about Carrier...who's a big body, knows how to use it and might push to make the roster next year.

 

[Husko]

As far as the physicality talk:

Don't forget about Carrier...who's a big body, knows how to use it and might push to make the roster next year.

It could happen, but hasn't he really struggled his first year in the A?

Hard to see him leapfrogging any of Gionta, Foligno, Hodgson, Des, Grigorenko/Larsson, or even Schaller for a bottom-6 wing spot.

 

[Zman5778]

It could happen, but hasn't he really struggled his first year in the A?

Hard to see him leapfrogging any of Gionta, Foligno, Hodgson, Des, Grigorenko/Larsson, or even Schaller for a bottom-6 wing spot.

Just b/c he pushes doesn't mean he makes it......all I'm saying is that he might make it hard on TM to send him back.

 

[Zip15]

From Vogls Sabres notbook from Saturday

He talked about signing of college UFAs and talked to Schaller about it:

“Whether you’re going to be a top-line guy or a bottom-line guy, it’s what teams have at each skill set,” Schaller said. “If there’s a lot of prospects, maybe you want to go someplace else."

“You’ve got agents to do that for you so you can just worry about your game, but you’re always interested. It’s one of those things where if you’re hanging around at night you’ll look at a couple rosters.”

First, your quote is wildly out of context. Schaller was speaking from the perspective of the college UFA's who have a choice where they want to sign. Of course depth charts are relevant to them. That's not a comparable situation to Lemieux, whose rights were owned by the Sabres.

Second, even assuming the quote was made in the context in which you tried to spin it, that you are unable to distinguish Tim Schaller, a guy who has been in the organization for an extended period and has yet to stick in Buffalo, with a 31st overall pick like Lemieux further damages your credibility on this issue. If anything, Schaller's words indicate exactly why Lemieux would want to stick around: for better or worse, drafted prospects (especially those drafted high, like Lemieux) get first crack at roster spots.

That same exact mentality will be in the minds of the CHL players if they think the team that drafted them---they have no real shot at being a top 2 player at their position. ther is a big difference in lifetime earning potential over the course of your career.

No, that won't be the mentality of CHL'ers. If it was, you'd see a lot of top-60 CHL picks who refused to sign, which isn't happening. By your logic, CHL'ers would refuse to sign if there was either a loaded prospect pipeline OR established NHL roster players at the same position. Hence, you seem to be arguing that this is an issue for both good NHL teams and those teams who have strong pipelines. That encompasses a majority of organizations, yet the practice you suggests is in no way prevalent. There are only so many ways to say you're wrong, but you're wrong.

He was traded---he didnt pick Winnipeg---so he can still choose not to sign for the same reason.

But he won't refuse to sign. Because he was never scared about a system's depth in the first place.

Lets look at winnpeg....

Little is a UFA when Lemieux still has 1 year left on an ELC
Wheeler is a UFA when Lemieux is done with his ELC
Ladd has 1 yr left before being a UFA

all 3 will not be resigned.

Says...you? Ladd is their team captain and will be re-signed. Wheeler loves it there and is a big part of that team, and he will be re-signed. Little is their 1C, and I'd be shocked if he isn't re-signed, too. Winnipeg has one of the few owners who's richer than Pegula. Money is not an issue.

Notwithstanding your weak argument, the same logic can be applied in Buffalo:

Ennis and Moulson are UFA the same summer as Wheeler.
Kane is UFA the same summer as Little.
Hodgson may be bought out this summer.
Since you earlier assumed that Lemieux "figured" Murray would trade for a top-line LW, maybe he also "figured" Grigorenko would be moved, too.

that leaves Schiefele, Lowry, Armia, Ehlers + other prospects in their system

You just assumed that Winnipeg would not re-sign a single member of its established forward corps. You also seemingly presume that all of our guys will be re-signed or not traded, thereby blocking Lemieux's path in Buffalo.

Do you not realize how inane your assumptions are?

that gives Lemieux a fighting shot. None of the other prospects are high 1st round picks where they are usually given more of a shot to play over a 2nd round or later pick.

With buffalo--Reinhart. Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, 2015 1st + other prospects were still on their ELCs or not yet signed an ELC. There was talk of Buffalo trying to trade for Nichuskin, Larkin, or Mantha. That is a bigger log jam he would be facing.

You are in Lala Land if you think that Lemieux has an easier road to an NHL roster spot in Winnipeg than he did in Buffalo. Winnipeg has good, young forwards in the prime of their career, as well as one of the few prospect systems that can be mentioned in the same sentence as ours. He has much greater LW competition among prospects in Winnipeg with Ehlers and Petan around, as well as guys like DeLeo and Copp. In Buffalo, he had little competition on the left side among his age peers--other than BL, we've drafted one possible top-9 LW since 2010, and there's a good chance that guy is going to stick at center (Girgensons). (I'm waiting for you to argue next how BL was scared of Connor Hurley's pro prospects.)

Lemieux's best chance to get to the NHL quickly would have been to sign with us. He was not worried about the other players in this organization, especially when one considers that he held himself in such high esteem (firmly believed he should've been picked int he 1st round.)

You tell me why didnt he want to sign with Buffalo if a contract was offered ??????

Probably because he's a confident kid who bet on himself to be able to get a better contract by producing in the CHL. And it looks like he was right to bet on himself.

Now stop wasting my time with this inane nonsense.

 

[Jame]

Probably because he's a confident kid who bet on himself to be able to get a better contract by producing in the CHL. And it looks like he was right to bet on himself.

duh.

 

[Zip15]

It could happen, but hasn't he really struggled his first year in the A?

Hard to see him leapfrogging any of Gionta, Foligno, Hodgson, Des, Grigorenko/Larsson, or even Schaller for a bottom-6 wing spot.

In the first part of the year, yes. He has 14 pts in 21 games since late-January, though, and he's one of the youngest North Americans in the AHL. Had his birthdate been 11 days later, he would've had to go back to the CHL. He definitely needs another full year in the AHL, but he's coming on right now.

 

[dotcommunism]

I highly doubt they somehow low balled him.

What I dont know if there is a big drop in contracts given to players drafted in 2nd vs 1st round. In the NBA 1sts get certain money, 2nds have no guarentee in their contracts.

based on base salary the difference between mid 1st and high 2nd isnt that much at all--maybe $50,000 difference in base. The issue may be boinus incentives and wether they can be reached or not.

There is a ton of variation in what an ELC can look like. Pysyk's included a 90k signing bonus each season, with a 810k paragraph 1 salary each season and no performance bonuses. Johan Larsson's included a 90k signing bonus each season, with paragraph 1 salary's of 600k, 700k and 810k with 320k of performance bonuses (total). Joel Armia's included a 92.5k signing bonus each season, with an 832.5k paragraph 1 salary and 350k of performance bonuses per year. Mikhail Grigorenko's included 92.5k signing bonus each season, 832.5k paragraph 1 salary and 850k of performance bonuses per year. Reinhart's is the same as Grigorenko's except with 2.65m in performance bonuses each year.

There are a ton of different ways that an ELC can be structured. It's not remotely outside of the realm of possibility that the Sabres offered Lemieux a contract closer to, say, Larsson's and he decided he wanted one closer to Armia's. The difference in potential ELCs can amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars difference in salary once a player makes it to the NHL, before you even get to performance bonuses, and without the team needing to "lowball" the player. If a player really thinks that he can get himself a bigger ELC by playing well and improving his value as a prospect, that can easily be worth the, what, one year delay on getting his signing bonus.