Roster Speculation 2014-2015, Part VII

[Zman5778]

Both on the wing. When I imagine Grigorenko on the wing I always seem to link him to Voracek. Big, strong, elite offensively, smart, not the fastest and perhaps not the best defensively. However, having him and McEichel as 2/3 top line is very appealing. Then I picture Armia and Reinhart with Ennis as a second line. Reinhart and Armia are very very smart two-way players and Ennis has the speed on that line. And if you want to go even further you have Girgensons with Fasching as your 3rd line. So:

XXXX-McEichel-Grigorenko
Ennis-Reinhart-Armia
XXXX-Girgensons-Fasching

What if we did something like this:
Ennis-McEichel-Grigorenko
Girgensons-Reinhart-Armia
XXX-Compher-Fasching

XXX could be Larsson or Bailey or possibly Foligno.

That first line is all-out offense while that 2nd line would be a beast of a two-way 2nd line.




MOD EDIT: continued from http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1791475

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[Zman5778]

......................aaaaaand ZPT and I both forgot that Moulson is likely a part of this team moving forward.....

 

[joshjull]

What if we did something like this:
Ennis-McEichel-Grigorenko
Girgensons-Reinhart-Armia
XXX-Compher-Fasching

XXX could be Larsson or Bailey or possibly Foligno.

That first line is all-out offense while that 2nd line would be a beast of a two-way 2nd line.

Where is Moulson? He's here for the next 4 years.

And I would be very surprised if all but one of our top 9 are players we drafted. Though I grant you its hard to project out lines without using names of players already in our system.

 

[Zman5778]

Where is Moulson? He's here for the next 4 years.

And I would be very surprised if all but one of our top 9 are players we drafted. Though I grant you its hard to project out lines without using names of players already in our system.

Yeahhh, look above. ZPT and I both made that mistake.

So, a bit of a fix then:

Ennis-McEichel-Moulson
Grigorenko-Reinhart-Armia
Compher-Girgensons-Fasching

3rd line is obviously the defensive specialty line, with a bit of offensive possibility.

Putting Grigo and Armia together with Reinhart.......if Armia just finds open spaces, he's going rack up a megaton of goals.

 

[jc17]

Am I the only one who doesnt like all the youth together? It seems like a recipe for losing having that much inexperience together.

 

[joshjull]

Am I the only one who doesnt like all the youth together? It seems like a recipe for losing having that much inexperience together.

Not to worry. I highly doubt Murray would ever let an inexperienced lineup like that happen. I fully expect more vets added to the roster, particularly a vet center for at least next season.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

Am I the only one who doesnt like all the youth together? It seems like a recipe for losing having that much inexperience together.

It's also impossible to know who will or won't be added or subtracted. With the flip of a switch, Myers, Enroth, Stewart, Stafford, could all be moved, half the lower depth could be gone or resigned in the bottom six forwards. I would assume they will continue to add veterans in places to improve the roster, just like they did with Gorges, Moulson and Gionta.

 

[joshjull]

Yeahhh, look above. ZPT and I both made that mistake.

So, a bit of a fix then:

Ennis-McEichel-Moulson
Grigorenko-Reinhart-Armia
Compher-Girgensons-Fasching

3rd line is obviously the defensive specialty line, with a bit of offensive possibility.

Putting Grigo and Armia together with Reinhart.......if Armia just finds open spaces, he's going rack up a megaton of goals.

Couple of things.

1) I don't think Girgs ever leaves the top 6. If McEichel and Reinhart become better options at center he is likely to move to the wing. He's the type of player that will be playing big minutes when we are good. Thats not going to happen on a 3rd line.

2) I expect players to be added to the roster via trade or free agency that will fill a few of these spots.

3) One of the top CHLers in our system may surprise in the next few years and crack the top 9. Guys like Baptiste, Bailey and Lemieux. Yet I rarely see them in line projections for the future. They have as much of a shot as guys like Fasching and Compher.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

I think there is a fair chance Bailey will make it. He's having a great year, another four point night last night (2+2). At the very least he should be in the AHL, though.

 

[Zman5778]

Couple of things.

1) I don't think Girgs ever leaves the top 6. If McEichel and Reinhart become better options at center he is likely to move to the wing. He's the type of player that will be playing big minutes when we are good. Thats not going to happen on a 3rd line.

2) I expect players to be added to the roster via trade or free agency that will fill a few of these spots.

3) One of the top CHLers in our system may surprise in the next few years and crack the top 9. Guys like Baptiste, Bailey and Lemieux. Yet I rarely see them in line projections for the future. They have as much of a shot as guys like Fasching and Compher.

I think 1 and 2 are most certainly related. If we get a veteran center, I'd be willing to say that he's likely to be our 3rd line center when we're ready.....which then pushes Girgensons up to the 1st or 2nd line where he really does belong. But, given how it's impossible to tell who that 3rd line C would be, I left ZG in there as a place holder.

As to 3, I think the reason why you're seeing that is that Compher and Fasching (to me) are very much projectable as 3rd line guys whereas the guys you speak of......could make the NHL in some form or another, but there's a higher level of doubt. Lemieux could be a 3rd line guy that gets a ton of PP time. Baptiste could be a legit top 6 guys.....who knows where Bailey slots in.

There's a TON of uncertainty right now AND flexibility. I know there's going to be veterans brought in......and I'm probably willing to bet that TM's going to shock us with a name or two he trades for (ie, it'll be a guy completely out of left field who fits perfectly yet no one had any clue he was available).

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Couple of things.

1) I don't think Girgs ever leaves the top 6. If McEichel and Reinhart become better options at center he is likely to move to the wing. He's the type of player that will be playing big minutes when we are good. Thats not going to happen on a 3rd line.

2) I expect players to be added to the roster via trade or free agency that will fill a few of these spots.

3) One of the top CHLers in our system may surprise in the next few years and crack the top 9. Guys like Baptiste, Bailey and Lemieux. Yet I rarely see them in line projections for the future.

It's hard to project which CHLer is going to make that jump, and even harder to then pencil him into the lineup. Personally I don't expect to see any of these guys on Buffalo for 2 more years. A couple get traded, a couple more don't pan out maybe 2 or 3 make it to the NHL but spend most of their waiver eligibility developing long term in Rochester.

With Ennis, Moulson, Gionta signed for several more years, then Grigorenko, Armia, Reinhart, Girgensons, and McEichel there might only be 1 top 9 position available and I fully expect it to go to veteran acquisition. That list doesn't even include Hodgson who still has several years left on his contract as well. If you bring in an UFA center then you have to move a roster player to squeeze anyone else in because the CHL guys really aren't fourth liners (which we have too many of already).

 

[ZeroPT*]

Couple of things.

1) I don't think Girgs ever leaves the top 6. If McEichel and Reinhart become better options at center he is likely to move to the wing. He's the type of player that will be playing big minutes when we are good. Thats not going to happen on a 3rd line.

2) I expect players to be added to the roster via trade or free agency that will fill a few of these spots.

3) One of the top CHLers in our system may surprise in the next few years and crack the top 9. Guys like Baptiste, Bailey and Lemieux. Yet I rarely see them in line projections for the future. They have as much of a shot as guys like Fasching and Compher.

It's starting to happen and it will continue to happen, but the traditional 3rd lines don't exist anymore. Cup winning teams used to go with

2 scoring lines
1 shutdown line
1 energy line

That system is disappearing. You now have 3 balanced, skillful, scoring lines and a 4th line that can chip in some goals and hits. Girgensons on the 3rd line would be like. Take the Isles for example. They roll with Tavares and Nielsen as their top 2 lines. And Nelson is on the "3rd line" but averages just .4 seconds less than 2nd liner Nielsen.

This is also present with the cup winning Kings. Kopitar and Carter are the top 2 centers whilst Stoll is on the "3rd line" But once again, Stoll only averages .29 less of 5V5 TOI. So the concept of an actual 3rd line center is not that present anymore. The way I drew it up, it's alot like the Kings setup.

McEichel- ~14 minutes of ES TOI
Reinhart- ~11 minutes of ES TOI
Girgs- ~11 minutes of ES TOI.

So when I have Girgensons as a 3rd C, it's moreso as a 2b center. the 1-2-3 rotation of C's is not as common as it once was.

 

[joshjull]

I think 1 and 2 are most certainly related. If we get a veteran center, I'd be willing to say that he's likely to be our 3rd line center when we're ready.....which then pushes Girgensons up to the 1st or 2nd line where he really does belong. But, given how it's impossible to tell who that 3rd line C would be, I left ZG in there as a place holder.

Depends on who it is. ROR may stay in the top 6 as a center whereas someone like Vermette will get passed.

When we are ready? Ready for what? The playoffs? to contend? The only thing that will determine the center pecking order is the development pace of the centers we have. When they are ready to pass that vet center (assuming its a placeholder vet not someone like ROR) then they will pass him and push him to the 3rd line, 4th line, wing or even off the roster. But that will be happening at the same time we are developing players and adding players all over the roster. So we may be ready for the playoffs or to even contend before that vet center gets moved down the pecking order. One doesn't hinge on the other though they do impact each other.

As to 3, I think the reason why you're seeing that is that Compher and Fasching (to me) are very much projectable as 3rd line guys whereas the guys you speak of......could make the NHL in some form or another, but there's a higher level of doubt. Lemieux could be a 3rd line guy that gets a ton of PP time. Baptiste could be a legit top 6 guys.....who knows where Bailey slots in.

I see all of them as potential middle 6 players. I think you need to get away from the ideas of old school team building where teams put only defense type players on the 3rd and 4th lines. Murray wants to build a team with two way play and offense throughout lines 1-4. Obviously that will vary from line to line but having offensively capable players on each line is part of that team building plan. Justin Williams just won the Conn Smythe trophy as pretty much a 3rd line winger for the Kings playing mostly with Stoll/King. No one would ever consider him a defensive winger.

There's a TON of uncertainty right now AND flexibility. I know there's going to be veterans brought in......and I'm probably willing to bet that TM's going to shock us with a name or two he trades for (ie, it'll be a guy completely out of left field who fits perfectly yet no one had any clue he was available).

I agree there is a ton of uncertainty. But that doesn't mean you can't say, for example, that Girgs will be a top 6 forward for certain.

 

[Matt Ress]

Imo, I can see Bailey and Fasching being ready sooner whereas Baptiste, Lemieux, and Compher making the leap at 22ish. Time will tell and everybody has a different time line. Armia is deserving now and Greg I would like to see up because (I know most won't agree) he has to be more consistent. I don't see him taking strides in ROC but, in Buffalo recently, he did. I guess it's moot because he kinda has to be up next year anyway.

 

[joshjull]

It's starting to happen and it will continue to happen, but the traditional 3rd lines don't exist anymore. Cup winning teams used to go with

2 scoring lines
1 shutdown line
1 energy line

That system is disappearing. You now have 3 balanced, skillful, scoring lines and a 4th line that can chip in some goals and hits. Girgensons on the 3rd line would be like. Take the Isles for example. They roll with Tavares and Nielsen as their top 2 lines. And Nelson is on the "3rd line" but averages just .4 seconds less than 2nd liner Nielsen.

This is also present with the cup winning Kings. Kopitar and Carter are the top 2 centers whilst Stoll is on the "3rd line" But once again, Stoll only averages .29 less of 5V5 TOI. So the concept of an actual 3rd line center is not that present anymore. The way I drew it up, it's alot like the Kings setup.

McEichel- ~14 minutes of ES TOI
Reinhart- ~11 minutes of ES TOI
Girgs- ~11 minutes of ES TOI.

So when I have Girgensons as a 3rd C, it's moreso as a 2b center. the 1-2-3 rotation of C's is not as common as it once was.

I'm well aware of how teams are built now. I should have said Girgs will not be on the 3rd line because he should be on a line with a more important role with better players. The pecking order to the lines and centers in the NHL is still there. Whats changed is a top 6 center handles the primary defense role now as opposed to the 3rd line center.

Stoll is quite clearly the Kings 3rd line center playing with lesser overall players than Kopitar and Carter play with. He also has a lesser role than those two centers and their lines have. Stoll's line is the secondary defensive line and 3rd line offensively. Stoll is also not better than any of the players playing ahead of him on the Kings top two lines.

The common theme with 3rd lines now is they are either going to be the secondary defensive line and 3rd offensive line or they will be the 3rd in both. As opposed to in the past they were frequently the top defensively as is still the case in Pittsburgh. I don't envision Girgs getting relegated to a line like that at the expense of the type of players you had listed above him (Ennis, grigs and Armia). He is light years ahead of Grigs and Armia developmentally and Ennis will never be the defensivee player Girgs is. Thats not to say it will never happen but we are a ways away from having the type of talent it would require to relegate him to that status.

 

[ZeroPT*]

fair enough. I still don't think the 3rd line center vs top 6 wing is much difference in importance. Especially with the role I envision him as a C.

 

[joshjull]

fair enough. I still don't think the 3rd line center vs top 6 wing is much difference in importance. Especially with the role I envision him as a C.

What role is that?

 

[kenfury]

So my hope is to pick up Bilckell and the rights to Odouya in the off season. Also send Steward and Stafford for a 2nd and 3rd. Take one of the late seconds from a cap restricted Blackhawks.

Moulson - Ennis - XXX (Armia?)
CoHo - Grigs/Samson - XXX/Foligno
Bickell - Girgs - Gio
Des - Flynn - Kaleta/McCormick

I build this with McEichel staying up for 10, hoping better, but expecting less.

Myers - Georges
Risto - Zads
Odoyua - Pysyk/McCabe/Weber

#7 Pysyk/McCabe/Weber

UFA (Neimi?) - Winner of Enroth/Neuvirth

Goal will be a 30/50 game split.

 

[RoofIt5hole]

So my hope is to pick up Bickell and the rights to Odouya in the off season. Also send Steward and Stafford for a 2nd and 3rd. Take one of the late seconds from a cap restricted Blackhawks.

Moulson - Ennis - XXX (Armia?)
CoHo - Grigs/Samson - XXX/Foligno
Bickell - Girgs - Gio
Des - Flynn - Kaleta/McCormick

I build this with McEichel staying up for 10, hoping better, but expecting less.

Myers - Georges
Risto - Zads
Odoyua - Pysyk/McCabe/Weber

#7 Pysyk/McCabe/Weber

UFA (Neimi?) - Winner of Enroth/Neuvirth

Goal will be a 30/50 game split.

Oh God no. Bickell is awful. He has never lived up to his contract. Had one good playoffs and got paid. Clearly it's not like we're hurting for cap space right now but i'd rather not make it easier on the Hawks by taking their problem contract. Also I wouldn't give anything to get Bickell. Well, nothing the hawks would accept I'd think... who knows, maybe under a Coach that doesn't put the lines in a Blender constantly and is better with developing players, Bickell could turn it around...

that being said, Pass.

Moulson - McEichel - Ennis
Grigs - Girgs - ?
Larsson - Reinhart - Armia

I'd love that. Reinhart - Armia would be a lot of fun to watch

 

[RoofIt5hole]

I'm well aware of how teams are built now. I should have said Girgs will not be on the 3rd line because he should be on a line with a more important role with better players. The pecking order to the lines and centers in the NHL is still there. Whats changed is a top 6 center handles the primary defense role now as opposed to the 3rd line center.

Stoll is quite clearly the Kings 3rd line center playing with lesser overall players than Kopitar and Carter play with. He also has a lesser role than those two centers and their lines have. Stoll's line is the secondary defensive line and 3rd line offensively. Stoll is also not better than any of the players playing ahead of him on the Kings top two lines.

The common theme with 3rd lines now is they are either going to be the secondary defensive line and 3rd offensive line or they will be the 3rd in both. As opposed to in the past they were frequently the top defensively as is still the case in Pittsburgh. I don't envision Girgs getting relegated to a line like that at the expense of the type of players you had listed above him (Ennis, grigs and Armia). He is light years ahead of Grigs and Armia developmentally and Ennis will never be the defensivee player Girgs is. Thats not to say it will never happen but we are a ways away from having the type of talent it would require to relegate him to that status.

I like that idea
Having Girgs on that 2nd instead of third would probably also help insulate reinhart/mceichel maybe better for their development getting to feast off that matchup.

 

[ZeroPT*]

What role is that?

Heavy lifting in the D-zone against top competition.

Basically Bergeron-lite.

 

[kenfury]

Oh God no. Bickell is awful. He has never lived up to his contract. Had one good playoffs and got paid.

I disagree on point one that Bickell is awful. I will agree on points 2 and 3 that he has not lived up to his contract and had a sucky contract. So what? Let him play mostly on the 3rd line, put up 15/40, and eat hard minutes until 2017 when we have to worry about cap hits. I see it as idea with no real cost other than cash which we need to do to hit the floor. Same with Odouya, a nice 3/5 to shelter the kids.

If someone pushes out Bickell in 2016/17 so be it, but for now it adds a lot of stability and responsibility to a bunch of up and comers.

 

[Paxon]

Considering all the salary we have to add just to replace Stafford, Stewart, and Meszaros, Bickell is a good option. If we replace strictly through free agency we're gonna wind up with some regrettable contracts that last longer than Bickell's.

 

[FamilyGuy716]

Where is Moulson? He's here for the next 4 years.

And I would be very surprised if all but one of our top 9 are players we drafted. Though I grant you its hard to project out lines without using names of players already in our system.

What the hell are we going to do with Moulson 3-4 years from now? 4th liner?

 

[Dunkster19]

Considering all the salary we have to add just to replace Stafford, Stewart, and Meszaros, Bickell is a good option. If we replace strictly through free agency we're gonna wind up with some regrettable contracts that last longer than Bickell's.

This is where ROR or a similar player is needed. ROR helps in many ways!