Roster Speculation 2014-2015, Part IX Poppa Bear Doin' Thangs.

[Djp]

You come up with some ridiculous theories. Lemieux was one of our only LWs in our pipeline when he was traded. We have a glut of RWs (Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching, Compher) but virtually no LWs. If Lemieux didn't have a chance at a top-6 spot in Buffalo, where would he have that shot? (Ignoring outdated notions of "top-6.")

Buffalo had...Girgensons, Grigorenko, Foligno, Moulson shoot left on the club.

You figure one of Grigorenko/Girgensons play LW.
There has been talk of TM looking at bring in first line winger type of players ...Kane was one of many talked about.

You figure

L1 acquired LW/Moulson
L2 Grigorenko/Girgensons
L3 Foligno

In Lemieux's eyes he thinks he will have little chance getting any shot at top 2 or even top 3 and being stuck in a 4th line role.

Had the 2nd and 3rd line wingers been older and closer to UFA then he may see an opportunity.

He Aldo likely saw and heard things at camp where Foligno was expected to get the first dhot at top 2 roles or coaches talking of him projecting as a 4th line player.

In buffalo this is going to happen where some players opt to not sign snd either be a UFA or yo back into the draft where they hope for a better shot. College/Europe wait to become UFAs after 4 years, CHL players likely re-enter the draft pool.

Prior to the Kane/Myers trade buffalo had Girgensons, Grigorenko, Reinhart, Armia,and 15 1st ( likely McEichel or another forward) penciled in as potential top 6 players....thus 5 of the 6 slots filled with high 1st round picks. Hodgson also was a high 1st and going into the season he could be in the competition for top 6.

 

[ZeroPT*]

At least its not the cap floor again

 

[Djp]

Could Fasching be part of buffalo before the season ends?

Minnesota is a bubble team for the NCAAs.

 

[haseoke39]

It's hard to find a team in the league with less/more speculative depth at LW than us. You can barely name three plausible LW options. Most teams have three real LWs, like actually on their roster, and another couple on the farm. Lemieux was not boxed out.

 

[joshjull]

It's hard to find a team in the league with less/more speculative depth at LW than us. You can barely name three plausible LW options. Most teams have three real LWs, like actually on their roster, and another couple on the farm. Lemieux was not boxed out.

What? I can name more than 3 and they're all on the roster.

Kane, Ennis, Moulson, Foligno, Larsson and Des.

Girgs could end up there as well depending on how center is addressed.

 

[haseoke39]

What? I can name more than 3 and they're all on the roster.

Kane, Ennis, Moulson, Foligno, Larsson and Des.

Girgs could end up there as well depending on how center is addressed.

Kane wasn't even here at the time, des and foligno are fourth line players on a decent team, Larsson wasn't even in the NHL and might not be in a few months, plus he's playing center. I mean, really. Who in their right mind is saying the buffalo sabres are too saturated with talent for me to have a shot there, at any position? We look better at LW having added Kane, but that's nor even relevant for what lemieux would have been thinking.

 

[Husko]

I think you all are putting too much stock into RW/LW. Wingers flip sides all the time. It's a thing that matters, but I think realistically it's not that big of a deal

 

[joshjull]

Kane wasn't even here at the time, des and foligno are fourth line players on a decent team, Larsson wasn't even in the NHL and might not be in a few months, plus he's playing center. I mean, really. Who in their right mind is saying the buffalo sabres are too saturated with talent for me to have a shot there, at any position? We look better at LW having added Kane, but that's nor even relevant for what lemieux would have been thinking.

Considering you quoted no one and said nothing about those things. Hard to expect me to assume those other points.

 

[Jame]

At least its not the cap floor again

They get sillier as the year goes on.

 

[Matt Ress]

Could Fasching be part of buffalo before the season ends?

Minnesota is a bubble team for the NCAAs.

I think it's leaning in that direction. Haven't talked about it much but, I don't see why not. Word is he's looking to turn pro asap so could be a week or so. I believe they played their regular season finale tonight against Penn State. Fasching had 2 goals and 2 assists in a 6-2 win.

 

[Husko]

I'd really rather not start the lock running a year early on his contract by giving him NHL time. Do we think he'd hold out on that and refuse to sign and go to AHL?

They won their conference today, right? Does that give them an auto ncaa bid?

 

[Matt Ress]

I'd really rather not start the lock running a year early on his contract by giving him NHL time. Do we think he'd hold out on that and refuse to sign and go to AHL?

They won their conference today, right? Does that give them an auto ncaa bid?

Yes. My bad. They still have to play a Conference Championship although they are the Big 10 regular season champs. He might get a few games in but I believe the 9 game rule still applies here. Maybe they won't bother getting him up if only for a game or two.

 

[dotcommunism]

I'd really rather not start the lock running a year early on his contract by giving him NHL time. Do we think he'd hold out on that and refuse to sign and go to AHL?

They won their conference today, right? Does that give them an auto ncaa bid?

Minnesota won the regular season title. Only a conference tournament win ensures a spot in the NCAA tournament. That said, it looks like they're 12th in pairwise rankings right now, which would at least give them a decent chance of making the NCAAs without winning their conference (big upsets in the other conference tournaments could end up knocking them out)

Yes. My bad. They still have to play a Conference Championship although they are the Big 10 regular season champs. He might get a few games in but I believe the 9 game rule still applies here. Maybe they won't bother getting him up if only for a game or two.

If you're referring to the entry level slide, that would not apply to Fasching. It only applies to 18 or 19 year olds and Fasching would count as a 20 year old if he signed at any point during this year (since signing age is the player's age on September 15th of the calendar year in which he signs. That said, while Fasching would use up an ELC season with any number of NHL games played this season, he would not be eligible for restricted free agency when his ELC expires if he plays fewer than 10 games. So his ELC would expire in 2017, but it would be another season before he would have any of the rights that come with being an RFA (such as being able to sign offer sheets)

 

[sabrebuild]

Buffalo had...Girgensons, Grigorenko, Foligno, Moulson shoot left on the club.

You figure one of Grigorenko/Girgensons play LW.
There has been talk of TM looking at bring in first line winger type of players ...Kane was one of many talked about.

You figure

L1 acquired LW/Moulson
L2 Grigorenko/Girgensons
L3 Foligno

In Lemieux's eyes he thinks he will have little chance getting any shot at top 2 or even top 3 and being stuck in a 4th line role.

Had the 2nd and 3rd line wingers been older and closer to UFA then he may see an opportunity.

He Aldo likely saw and heard things at camp where Foligno was expected to get the first dhot at top 2 roles or coaches talking of him projecting as a 4th line player.

In buffalo this is going to happen where some players opt to not sign snd either be a UFA or yo back into the draft where they hope for a better shot. College/Europe wait to become UFAs after 4 years, CHL players likely re-enter the draft pool.

Prior to the Kane/Myers trade buffalo had Girgensons, Grigorenko, Reinhart, Armia,and 15 1st ( likely McEichel or another forward) penciled in as potential top 6 players....thus 5 of the 6 slots filled with high 1st round picks. Hodgson also was a high 1st and going into the season he could be in the competition for top 6.

I think its pretty unlikely that a player who is probably two to three years away from having any realistic chance of making an NHL roster on talent an ability was concerned about the worst team in the leagues depth at his position. If that was what honestly made him not sign an elc, I would also consider whether he knows how to chew gum and walk at the same time.

 

[Zman5778]

Delusional Avs fans would probably begin to demand Hanifin instead of Zads/Risto.

If we do end up with the worst case scenario and get Hanifin (well, that's 2nd worst -- worst would be finishing 3rd and drafting 4th) I'd be OK with trading Zads for ROR.

 

[BananaSquad]

If we do end up with the worst case scenario and get Hanifin (well, that's 2nd worst -- worst would be finishing 3rd and drafting 4th) I'd be OK with trading Zads for ROR.

Same.

 

[Zip15]

Buffalo had...Girgensons, Grigorenko, Foligno, Moulson shoot left on the club.

You figure one of Grigorenko/Girgensons play LW.
There has been talk of TM looking at bring in first line winger type of players ...Kane was one of many talked about.

You figure

L1 acquired LW/Moulson
L2 Grigorenko/Girgensons
L3 Foligno

In Lemieux's eyes he thinks he will have little chance getting any shot at top 2 or even top 3 and being stuck in a 4th line role.

Had the 2nd and 3rd line wingers been older and closer to UFA then he may see an opportunity.

He Aldo likely saw and heard things at camp where Foligno was expected to get the first dhot at top 2 roles or coaches talking of him projecting as a 4th line player.

Your position is abject stupidity, and now you're trying to argue yourself out of it. You're so far down the rabbit hole that your position includes Lemieux being aware that Murray was going to acquire a top-line LW, as well as bald speculation about what Lemieux "heard" at development camp. You've offered no explanation for the fact that Lemieux had ZERO competition at LW anywhere in our pipeline. None. He was our only top-9 LW prospect.

Now he's in Winnipeg, where they have established pros on LW like Ladd and Perreault/Lowry, and he'll have to compete with guys like Ehlers, Petan, De Leo, and Copp in their prospect ranks.

If you think Lemieux wasn't going to sign because he couldn't beat out our LWs for a top-6 spot, you're out to lunch. You're even further out to lunch if you think Lemieux should believe he'll beat out Ladd and Ehlers for top-6 spots in Winnipeg.

Prior to the Kane/Myers trade buffalo had Girgensons, Grigorenko, Reinhart, Armia,and 15 1st ( likely McEichel or another forward) penciled in as potential top 6 players....thus 5 of the 6 slots filled with high 1st round picks. Hodgson also was a high 1st and going into the season he could be in the competition for top 6.

Winnipeg has Schiefele (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Ladd (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Little (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Wheeler (high 1st rounder, established NHLer), Armia (high 1st rounder and you used him in your example, so I will too), Ehlers (high 1st round pick, far better prospect than Lemieux). There's six right there. Where's Brendan's top-6 spot, DJP?

They also have guys like Lowry and Perreault who are being used in a top-6 role. Their beat writer has also said they want to re-sign at least one of Frolik and Stafford. Lemieux will also have stiff competition from LH shots in their prospect ranks like Petan (uber-talented, drafted around the same part of the draft as BL), De Leo (solid prospect), and Copp, and they also have Kosmachuk who'll be competing for minutes at RW.

This notion that his top-6 (your words, not mine) path was blocked in Buffalo yet is paved in gold in Winnipeg is absolute clownshoes. You could not be more wrong if you tried.

In buffalo this is going to happen where some players opt to not sign snd either be a UFA or yo back into the draft where they hope for a better shot. College/Europe wait to become UFAs after 4 years, CHL players likely re-enter the draft pool.

You're wrong. I can honestly say that I've never seen someone who puts in as much time thinking about this stuff as you do who, notwithstanding that fact, so frequently arrives at the wrong conclusion.

 

[allan5oh]

This notion that his top-6 (your words, not mine) path was blocked in Buffalo yet is paved in gold in Winnipeg is absolute clownshoes. You could not be more wrong if you tried

I can see the Jets doing some serious turnover on the 4th line, but you're right, Lemieux will have a tough time breaking into the top 6. He will play another year in junior and likely get some AHL time. Right now we're having a tough time squeezing in Ehlers and Petan for next season and that's completely ignoring Armia.

I'd say the earliest Lemieux gets a shot at the show is his second AHL season, like Lowry.

 

[MayDay]

Hanifin would be the top-pairing LHD many are clamoring for BUF to acquire.

If so, would likely cause Murray to kick it up a geat to land ROR in the few days between the Draft and 7/1/15.

Why wait until after the draft? I'd start working the phones with COL as soon as the draft lottery is over.

We will know in a month if we are picking 3rd and drafting Hanifin.

 

[Paxon]

Why wait until after the draft? I'd start working the phones with COL as soon as the draft lottery is over.

We will know in a month if we are picking 3rd and drafting Hanifin.

Because he wouldn't be able to re-sign with us until after the draft anyhow

 

[MayDay]

Because he wouldn't be able to re-sign with us until after the draft anyhow

So?

I'd take two months of Pegula and Murray showing him around Buffalo/HarborCenter/Canalside and buttering him up.

 

[MayDay]

You say "so?" like it doesn't matter at all, when the entire idea of acquiring ROR is a majorly risky proposition

Yeah, I know it's risky. That's my point.

That's the whole reason I would rather get him as soon as possible. The more time we own his rights before free agency starts, the more time Pegula and Murray have to convince him to sign-on in Buffalo, and the greater chance he'll sign.

If you only have a few days to sign him, the risk is much greater.

 

[Paxon]

Yeah, I know it's risky. That's my point.

That's the whole reason I would rather get him as soon as possible. The more time we own his rights before free agency starts, the more time Pegula and Murray have to convince him to sign-on in Buffalo, and the greater chance he'll sign.

If you only have a few days to sign him, the risk is much greater.

We'd theoretically have a year to sign him either way but this is getting pretty OT so maybe the mods can move this convo to the roster thread.

 

[MayDay]

We'd theoretically have a year to sign him either way but this is getting pretty OT so maybe the mods can move this convo to the roster thread.

Ahh, my bad. For some reason I was thinking he was a free agent this summer.

 

[dotcommunism]

The idea that Lemieux wasn't going to sign with Buffalo is very much overblown. It was initially reported after the trade that Lemieux had refused to sign. Then, after that, it was reported that the Sabres had already offered him an ELC to sign and that he had turned it down. The idea that turning down an ELC, which is what the later information indicated was actually the case, means that he categorically wasn't going to sign with Buffalo, requires quite a bit of a logical leap. The much simpler answer is that Lemieux wanted an ELC that was going to pay him more than the one that Buffalo offered. Don't forget that Lemieux seemed to think that he should've been picked in the first round. He might've just wanted an ELC that he felt was more in line with where he felt he should've been drafted. By waiting to sign his ELC, he could boost his value and increase the money he gets, by playing well in juniors.