Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVIII

[LokiDog]

I'm going to guess a Kreider deal is either incentive-based like the Zucc deal or simply focused around a younger player. If we want a guaranteed first, we're probably going to have to package Kreider with additional assets to raise the value of the trade on both sides.

Hypothetically, let's say that COL deal for Jost actually materializes. Would Kreider and the DAL 2020 3rd for Jost and conditional 2020 3rd (becomes either something like a 2021 2nd or a 2020 1st if they make the ECF and/or he re-signs) be a bad deal?



Schenn has an 8 year deal kicking in at $6.5M. I'm not too sure I'd want to get locked in on a long-term deal like that for a 28 year old.

Again, it’s more an example of the kinds of phone calls I’d be making. I’d rather have 28 year old Schenn for 8 years at 6.5 than Kreider for 6 years at 6.5, but my point wasn’t to specifically hone in on Schenn. It was to be proactive in deciding where we want to make changes and looking at NHL rosters to see if we can entice them enough to give up the kind of player we specifically want to target. Skjei and Howden for E. Kane comes to mind as well. Again, probably not realistic, but just examples of phone calls I’d make.

 

[Tawnos]

I'm going to guess a Kreider deal is either incentive-based like the Zucc deal or simply focused around a younger player. If we want a guaranteed first, we're probably going to have to package Kreider with additional assets to raise the value of the trade on both sides.

Hypothetically, let's say that COL deal for Jost actually materializes. Would Kreider and the DAL 2020 3rd for Jost and conditional 2020 3rd (becomes either something like a 2021 2nd or a 2020 1st if they make the ECF and/or he re-signs) be a bad deal?.

Keep in mind that Zucc was traded in the midst of a deadline with 5 or 6 top-6 capable wingers which really drove down their value. At this moment, it's looking like Kreider and Toffoli will be the only 2. The market is going to be different this year than last year.

 

[nyr2k2]

I understand the genesis of the conversation. I'm trying to say that I don't agree with that method of looking at this. I also don't think it's borne out by history. Something else to mention: 1+3+filler and 2+B+filler aren't equal trades. B prospects and a 3rd round picks are roughly equivalent in value, with the slight edge to the prospect. Switching from a 3rd rounder to a B prospect isn't enough to drop the pick from a 1st to a 2nd. It's more like switching the 3rd round to a B prospect would drop the filler.

And of course it's subjective. It's ALWAYS subjective to the teams making the trade. That's exactly my point. When it comes to trying to look at what one trade means to a future trade, it doesn't really matter what a team is giving up or getting, it matters what a team *thinks* it's giving up or getting. Public reaction is no judge of that. Chayka wasn't willing to move their absolute top prospects, as is always the case with rental trades, but next-level down prospects were available and in quantity.

The teams looking to trade for Kreider are going to have the same attitude. The key for Gorton is to identify the right team and the right prospects. That's where the public reaction has more value and where Shero likely messed up.

Okay, whatever you say.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Again, it’s more an example of the kinds of phone calls I’d be making. I’d rather have 28 year old Schenn for 8 years at 6.5 than Kreider for 6 years at 6.5, but my point wasn’t to specifically hone in on Schenn. It was to be proactive in deciding where we want to make changes and looking at NHL rosters to see if we can entice them enough to give up the kind of player we specifically want to target. Skjei and Howden for E. Kane comes to mind as well. Again, probably not realistic, but just examples of phone calls I’d make.

Ah, gotcha. I'm strongly in the camp of not bothering re-signing Kreider at all. I just don't see that contract aging well, and as tough as it would be to move him from a fan perspective, it's the right move for this team going forward.

Keep in mind that Zucc was traded in the midst of a deadline with 5 or 6 top-6 capable wingers which really drove down their value. At this moment, it's looking like Kreider and Toffoli will be the only 2. The market is going to be different this year than last year.

True, but I could also see their lackluster seasons driving down their value. If Kreider starts to pick his game up, then this is another story.

 

[Savant]

There is absolutely no reason that Kreider should return less than Zuccarello.

and the Stars were a game away from making that deal look real good.

 

[Lion Hound]

Keep in mind that Zucc was traded in the midst of a deadline with 5 or 6 top-6 capable wingers which really drove down their value. At this moment, it's looking like Kreider and Toffoli will be the only 2. The market is going to be different this year than last year.

Not too mention Zucc was two years older, slower, and a foot smaller! And I love Zucc!

 

[SA16]

Zucc also wasn't traded by himself so that affected the value. Kreider will probably be the only player in the deal.

 

[GAGLine]

Zucc also wasn't traded by himself so that affected the value. Kreider will probably be the only player in the deal.

Did you mean Stepan? Because we didn't send anything else to Dallas with Zucc.

 

[SA16]

Did you mean Stepan? Because we didn't send anything else to Dallas with Zucc.

Webster

 

[GAGLine]

Webster

Lol. If Webster had been factored into the value, Zucc would have been traded for future considerations.

 

[Avery16]

whew!

 

[Avery16]

Not too mention Zucc was two years older, slower, and a foot smaller! And I love Zucc!

I see your point, but Zucc plays with more size than Kreider has for a while.

 

[B17 Apricots]

U gotta wonder if they'll explore taking back a contract to stretch out someones value. Doesn't have to be anything crazy, the Nash deal we took back Belesky for a couple mil with only a couple years left. If both Strome and Kreider are gone it's still possible to make that move and have the money to re-sign our RFAs

 

[Trxjw]

I'm going to guess a Kreider deal is either incentive-based like the Zucc deal or simply focused around a younger player. If we want a guaranteed first, we're probably going to have to package Kreider with additional assets to raise the value of the trade on both sides.

Hypothetically, let's say that COL deal for Jost actually materializes. Would Kreider and the DAL 2020 3rd for Jost and conditional 2020 3rd (becomes either something like a 2021 2nd or a 2020 1st if they make the ECF and/or he re-signs) be a bad deal?

The tricky part about the Avs is they don't have their own 2nd or 3rd this year. So maybe Jost and a 1st for Kreider and something small from the Rangers' side. I'd be more focused on Jost than the pick, however.

 

[BKGooner]

whew!

I hear Traktor needs a wing...

 

[duhmetreE]

Would EDM ever trade Nurse? He's a RFA, they have Klefbom and eventually Broberg.

Buch + Lindgren type deal?

I've always been drawn to Nurse

 

[Edge]

I think there's a thought-process that we'd have to add for Jost, but I'm not sure that's necessarily the case at this point.

He's now in his third NHL season and has 5 goals and 9 points in 30 games. He has 29/29/58 over 172 games. He has 5 goals and 7 points in 13 career AHL games.

Forgetting for a moment that he was a 10th overall pick, I don't think this is an add situation. Not with where he is on Colorado's depth chart, nor based on his performance.

As a point of reference, JP is the same age, from the same draft, and has 17 goals, 20 assists and 37 points in 139 career games. We're not even sure we're comfortable trading Lias Andersson for him.

Brendan Lemieux, was a year older than Jost is now when he was packaged along with a first for Kevin Hayes. But he had 53 games under his belt with 10 goals and 12 points at that point.

So if we look at production over an 82 game schedule we have:

Jost with 14 goals and 28 points.

JP with 10 goals and 22 points.

Lemieux with 15 goals and 18 points.

So, yes, Jost is ahead of those comparable players, but I don't know if he's Kreider+ ahead of them.

There's upside there for sure with Jost, but there's a lot of question marks that aren't any closer to be resolved than they were in 2017.

 

[Edge]

Would EDM ever trade Nurse? He's a RFA, they have Klefbom and eventually Broberg.

Buch + Lindgren type deal?

I've always been drawn to Nurse

Don't quote me, but I believe Nurse did come in some conversation in the past. For the life of me, I can't remember for whom.

 

[East Coast Bias]

U gotta wonder if they'll explore taking back a contract to stretch out someones value. Doesn't have to be anything crazy, the Nash deal we took back Belesky for a couple mil with only a couple years left. If both Strome and Kreider are gone it's still possible to make that move and have the money to re-sign our RFAs

I don't think they can afford to take on cap hits anymore. They have 17m tied in Staal, Smith and buyouts next season.

 

[duhmetreE]

Don't quote me, but I believe Nurse did come in some conversation in the past. For the life of me, I can't remember for whom.

Sather or Gorton?

 

[Edge]

Sather or Gorton?

Gorton for sure.

 

[LokiDog]

Don't quote me, but I believe Nurse did come in some conversation in the past. For the life of me, I can't remember for whom.

I think Nurse could be moved but it would be an off-season deal. Edmonton does have Bouchard and Broberg in the pipe and desperately needs help up front. I don’t think they’d move Nurse while they’re in a playoff position though, because they need to keep McDavid and the fans happy. If they slide before the deadline, maybe, but more likely at the draft. He’d certainly be a worthwhile target.

 

[NYR Viper]

I think there's a thought-process that we'd have to add for Jost, but I'm not sure that's necessarily the case at this point.

He's now in his third NHL season and has 5 goals and 9 points in 30 games. He has 29/29/58 over 172 games. He has 5 goals and 7 points in 13 career AHL games.

Forgetting for a moment that he was a 10th overall pick, I don't think this is an add situation. Not with where he is on Colorado's depth chart, nor based on his performance.

As a point of reference, JP is the same age, from the same draft, and has 17 goals, 20 assists and 37 points in 139 career games. We're not even sure we're comfortable trading Lias Andersson for him.

Brendan Lemieux, was a year older than Jost is now when he was packaged along with a first for Kevin Hayes. But he had 53 games under his belt with 10 goals and 12 points at that point.

So if we look at production over an 82 game schedule we have:

Jost with 14 goals and 28 points.

JP with 10 goals and 22 points.

Lemieux with 15 goals and 18 points.

So, yes, Jost is ahead of those comparable players, but I don't know if he's Kreider+ ahead of them.

There's upside there for sure with Jost, but there's a lot of question marks that aren't any closer to be resolved than they were in 2017.

This is interesting as well as you must then factor in the fact that Puljujaarvi is playing overseas by his own volition and if he was playing in the NHL this year, his per 82 game stats most likely would be going up slightly as he would be a year older and stronger. And yet one player is slightly coveted around here while the other is not.

Solid post as always Edge

 

[McRanger]

Don't quote me, but I believe Nurse did come in some conversation in the past. For the life of me, I can't remember for whom.

The aborted McD deal?

 

[B17 Apricots]

I don't think they can afford to take on cap hits anymore. They have 17m tied in Staal, Smith and buyouts next season.

Oh it would absolutely be tight but there'd be a ton of factors at play, let's say Strome and Kreider are gone and they bring back a roster player on an ELC, you'll have 10 million coming off the books between them, Beleskey and Names. You're already sitting with about 3 mil in space as of right now so that takes care of the bump in buyout money than it's possible the cap goes up, you gotta sign TDA, George and LemiWinks... So you're right it's unlikely but if they do want to squeeze as much value as they can outta someone it is a possibility