Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIII

[Tawnos]

You said certain areas of our team are further along than is being portrayed.

I agree with you in the sense that we are "closer", but I don't think we are "close" per se.

I think there's still a lot of work to be done here, and a lot of unknowns.

There are a lot of unknowns. I think of it this way. A lot of people say 5-7 years for a good rebuild and by the year after next, we are starting to get into the range where we have a good contingent of prospects that are 5 years removed from their draft year. If all goes right, we'll be entering the next phase of on-ice quality sooner than some people expect... because Gorton was smart and gave us a little bit of a headstart by trading for all of these 2016 draftees. In other words, we're not close, but we're closer than some realize.

 

[effen]

I'd have to imagine there will be more caution from the org than this board is willing to put out given the very recent struggles of Chytil, Andersson, and Howden last year. The NHL grind is very real and with very rare exceptions defeats all newbies.

 

[effen]

You said certain areas of our team are further along than is being portrayed.

I agree with you in the sense that we are "closer", but I don't think we are "close" per se.

I think there's still a lot of work to be done here, and a lot of unknowns.

The timeline seems really obvious (SUCK this coming year, be a 7th-11th in the East team in 20-21, spend money and be a top team for the next 3-4 years in 21-22), every move and statement seems to back it up, and yet...

 

[Trxjw]

In my own view it seems clear to me that the Rangers tried to retool the team with the Stepan trade, but the pieces didn't come together. I think part of it was they saw the signs of a player who might be slowing down and they wanted to get out from under his contract before the trade protection kicked in. Beyond that, there were plenty of rumors about Thornton being on their radar and they ended up signing Shattenkirk. To me that's a front office who is looking to make a change but doesn't want to lock themselves into a long-term situation in case they need to do something more drastic. So while I'm hesitant to say the rebuild started with the Stepan deal, because to me that's definitely more of a hockey trade than a rebuilding trade, I think the possibility was on the table if they couldn't right the ship. It didn't take long after the season started for them to realize that the pieces just weren't there and that they needed to shake things up.

What the Rangers have done is shorten the timeline by maximizing the return on the players they dealt. That is a key part of what makes them different from the Oilers and Sabres of the world. Gorton was able to replenish the prospect pool with just a few trades and some quality drafting. Teams like the Oilers and Sabres can't draft outside of the lottery range, and teams like Arizona and Florida always have the balance sheet looming over their heads. The Rangers aren't those teams and this isn't going to be some 5 or 6 year trip to right back where they started.

 

[kovazub94]

I'd have to imagine there will be more caution from the org than this board is willing to put out given the very recent struggles of Chytil, Andersson, and Howden last year. The NHL grind is very real and with very rare exceptions defeats all newbies.

I actually think FO is more positive on performances from 2018-2019 rookies than this board that seems to get negative on a prospect at a first sign of struggles.

The timeline seems really obvious (SUCK this coming year, be a 7th-11th in the East team in 20-21, spend money and be a top team for the next 3-4 years in 21-22), every move and statement seems to back it up, and yet...

Did you consider that a) based on what's available you could get a bigger BANG for your buck on this year's free agents? b) it would cost you less in 21-22 and forward if you spend your money now? c) in 21-22 the team could be not better off after spending money than in 20-21, again based on what's available?

 

[Cag29]

I think it gets more difficult because Panarin comes in with all kinds of expectations and a price tag to match. Hayes and Vesey were free agent college kids, Zibanejad was a 23 year old, 50 point center the Rangers hoped could fulfill his potential. The Stepan trade, the Fox trade, none of them brought back a guy who was seen as a "never becomes available" type like Panarin is being billed as by those who tend to support his signing.

Additionally, Panarin's salary will probably double any other forward on this team (should they move Kreider), and that kind of money I feel does change things. It's one thing to have a desire to want to maximize Zibanejad, who is already in the fold, and take advantage of his great $5 million salary. It's another to actively go out, recruit a guy, pay him $9, $10, or even $11 million dollars annually, and not have dictate how you approach things. I just think that eventually becomes an issue and it really shouldn't be until we are at a point where those kinds of issues make sense.

And I feel like it's coming from two fronts right now --- there's the push for Panarin and the push for Trouba. You put those two elements together and suddenly that slope becomes a bit more slippery. I just...am not crazy about where that path leads right now.

I want to move Kreider and get the best return possible.
Don’t sign any major UFA. A 1 Year stop gap if needed is fine. Or a trade ie Callahan from Tampa.
Develope our young players and bring them along together.
Hopefully we get another top 5 pick in 2020.
Turn Hartford into a team that plays the same system as the big club with a developmental focused coach which in turn creates a pipeline to the big club.
I’ve watched this team 44 years seen big name hired guns come and go and it only worked 1 time !
I much rather watch a young mostly home grown group come together and succeed.
It’s exciting. Very exciting. I feel we have the team in place to achieve this.
LGR!!!!

 

[Cag29]

Eh, I think that gets tricky.

The Rangers have done a magnificent job of essentially "building" a 2016 draft for themselves, I've said as much multiple times. Likewise, I've also said that the 2016 draft might end up being just as important to our rebuild as the 2018 draft.

But it's hard for me to really consider that the start of the rebuild. I think because of the timing of when the Rangers started making moves, the kids from the 2016 draft were the assets that were found a balance between what the Rangers wanted and what other teams were willing to part with.

In that same mindset, if it was prospects from the 2015 draft that happened to occupy that cross section, I don't think we'd be viewing the 2015 as the start of our rebuild.

I mean if the 2014 draft gives us Shesterkin, ADA and Lemieux, where does that fit into things?

I tend to view the rebuild as starting when our specific focus turned toward actively focusing on the acquisition of young players, prospects and picks. For me that's 2018. Obviously not every kid is going to be 18, some will be 19 or 20 or even 21, so that's going to cover multiple drafts.

But beyond that, I think we've done a very good job of getting talent depth in our organization. The focus now is on getting that elite, higher-end talent as well. I think we started that in 2018, and will continue it in 2019 (though it's unknown to what extent).

For me though, there's one more draft left in that process --- and that's the 2020 draft. Based on where the Rangers are likely to finish organically, and the type of draft it is. I think we can come away with the potential for something special there as well.

Edge well said as usual!

 

[effen]

I actually think FO is more positive on performances from 2018-2019 rookies than this board that seems to get negative on a prospect at a first sign of struggles.


Did you consider that a) based on what's available you could get a bigger BANG for your buck on this year's free agents? b) it would cost you less in 21-22 and forward if you spend your money now? c) in 21-22 the team could be not better off after spending money than in 20-21, again based on what's available?

There is a considerable amount of gaslighting on this board in terms of player performance that I noticed this past year when I watched practically every game. The mom-ism is just as real for the favored sons as excessive negativity for those out-of-favor. That said, the FO will of course accentuate the positives internally as there's nothing to be gained from harping on negatives - you just frame them as opportunities for growth.

as far as A, B, and C, the team has a nearly clean capsheet post 20-21 so taking chances now to conceivably get better value for the $ 3 years from now isn't a concern I would have.

 

[haohmaru]

They took the Stepan money and signed Shattenkirk. How has that signing worked out for the Rangers? Brooks reported Gorton tried to trade Shattenkirk a few months ago and teams offered their bad contracts in return. See that's the whole problem with the rebuild and retool idea at the same time.

Gorton made his job more difficult with the Shattenkirk and Smith signings.

The Rangers also tried to sign Thornton that summer before signing Shattenkirk. A rebuilding team shouldn't be signing a 38 year old player.

The rebuild started in February 2018.

The fallacy with this is that what we got back for Stepan, aka "rebuilding on the fly", were assets that weren't NHL ready. If you're trading what was then your "number one" center and a backup goalie for 7OA and a prospect (ADA) that's a team that's rebuilding. Shattenkirk cost money. Smith cost money. The Rangers had plenty of cap space throughout last year and this year heading into free agency. If we're as far away as you're implying we are, then who gives a shit about cap space and what Shattenkirk cost? We can't field a team of 19 year olds and 27+ year old veterans cost money.

Was Smith a stupid move in hindsight? Sure. JD also said that errors like that are a part of the process and some things don't work out.

The rebuild has its roots in the Stepan trade and it took until February 2018 for the team to really embrace it and push the eject button on 1/2 of their assets knowing full well the pending assets that would be available in February 2019. Stepan got the ball rolling. McD got it to knocking down the pins.

 

[ETTER DE]

They took the Stepan money and signed Shattenkirk. How has that signing worked out for the Rangers? Brooks reported Gorton tried to trade Shattenkirk a few months ago and teams offered their bad contracts in return. See that's the whole problem with the rebuild and retool idea at the same time.

Gorton made his job more difficult with the Shattenkirk and Smith signings.

The Rangers also tried to sign Thornton that summer before signing Shattenkirk. A rebuilding team shouldn't be signing a 38 year old player.

The rebuild started in February 2018.

So Gorton states that in june 2017 they were rebuilding on the fly, and you say the rebuild started in 2018. And the reason you say this is because it suits you and other pro rebuilders better. A long rebuild, wasting a lot of years is hard for people to swallow. So let us make it look that the rebuild started later then it did. Even if it contradicts what the GM has said. This is not an honest way of arguing.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

We are gonna be a good team soon, how long and what moves are made are out of our hands but I truly believe that we will be a competitor sooner than later and we will begin to enjoy great NYR hockey. Book it. Exciting times bros.

 

[Vitto79]

We are gonna be a good team soon, how long and what moves are made are out of our hands but I truly believe that we will be a competitor sooner than later and we will begin to enjoy great NYR hockey. Book it. Exciting times bros.

I’d give it two more years then I think good things can happen . Not all these kids will reach potential but a good Bunch should

 

[RGY]

So Gorton states that in june 2017 they were rebuilding on the fly, and you say the rebuild started in 2018. And the reason you say this is because it suits you and other pro rebuilders better. A long rebuild, wasting a lot of years is hard for people to swallow. So let us make it look that the rebuild started later then it did. Even if it contradicts what the GM has said. This is not an honest way of arguing.

What happens around here is some posters talk too much in absolutes.

They signed Shattenkirk and reference his contract as it is some complete burden. He has just two years left. Of course teams probably werent as interested in giving up value for him this past season, he was coming back from knee surgery. If he has a great first half, or even just a decent first half, you will see teams more interested in his contract for the next year and a half. Sure you might have to retain $1-$2 million but we have the cap space to do so in order to get some value back in assets.

Also, you’ll notice the crowd that harps on the signings of Shattenkirk and Smith, and trades for xyz, etc, loves to the play the “i told you so card.” They just KNEW those moves would not work out. They knew but management, the hockey minds paid way more than us, they did not know.

There is always a risk with anything. There is a risk making a move and not making a move. You can be a proponent of either and that is fine, but we have quite a few that have the crystal balls and thus tell everyone else what is best for this rebuild. Every move that should and should not be made. Playing all the young kids, not re-signing anyone over 26 or adding anyone at this time. Forget the argument from the opposition that it could cause an adverse affect on the culture and environment those same young kids are developing in. Forget that risk. Their path is known.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

So Gorton states that in june 2017 they were rebuilding on the fly, and you say the rebuild started in 2018. And the reason you say this is because it suits you and other pro rebuilders better. A long rebuild, wasting a lot of years is hard for people to swallow. So let us make it look that the rebuild started later then it did. Even if it contradicts what the GM has said. This is not an honest way of arguing.

Except it is.

A rebuild ON THE FLY is not a rebuild. Ignoring the "on the fly"part is not an honest way of arguing.

Even if you want to use the Stepan trade as the starting point, they're 23 months into this thing. That isn't a very long time. 3 years is a pretty aggressive, yet semi reasonable expectation, and we're still 13 months away from hitting that mark.

 

[Vitto79]

I think it’s obvious they want to move Shatty and Smith but is that so able ?

Because it’s likely not good chance they just run the kids out there and go hard for Panarin w the cap space

I don’t think it’s hard to move Namestnikov and especially Kreider

Pretty sure you can only eat 3 player contracts in a year and Spooner takes up one spot this year ... they hope Smith and Shatty take up the other two

 

[Alluckks]

I'm not arguing about the context around the Stepan trade. The idea is that if you don't think Lias and DeAngelo are major parts of the rebuild then I have no dang idea what to tell you. At the time of the trade the Rangers were clearly not in the same rebuild mindset that they have been in for the last year+, or arguably not even in an actual rebuild mindset at all. However, hindsight clearly favors that trade as a major starting point to the rebuild.

Just because the train didn't start moving at 100 mph out of the gate doesn't mean it wasn't moving.

 

[haohmaru]

What happens around here is some posters talk too much in absolutes.

They signed Shattenkirk and reference his contract as it is some complete burden. He has just two years left. Of course teams probably werent as interested in giving up value for him this past season, he was coming back from knee surgery. If he has a great first half, or even just a decent first half, you will see teams more interested in his contract for the next year and a half. Sure you might have to retain $1-$2 million but we have the cap space to do so in order to get some value back in assets.

Also, you’ll notice the crowd that harps on the signings of Shattenkirk and Smith, and trades for xyz, etc, loves to the play the “i told you so card.” They just KNEW those moves would not work out. They knew but management, the hockey minds paid way more than us, they did not know.

There is always a risk with anything. There is a risk making a move and not making a move. You can be a proponent of either and that is fine, but we have quite a few that have the crystal balls and thus tell everyone else what is best for this rebuild. Every move that should and should not be made. Playing all the young kids, not re-signing anyone over 26 or adding anyone at this time. Forget the argument from the opposition that it could cause an adverse affect on the culture and environment those same young kids are developing in. Forget that risk. Their path is known.

To add to this:

People forget that Shattenkirk was coming off a 56 point season and coming here at what was considered as a pretty steep discount that the Rangers really couldn't, and shouldn't, have refused. If Shattenkirk performed at, or close, to that level for the next two seasons then he would've been viewed as a good signing coupled with the fact that his trade deadline rental value would've been through the roof in the upcoming two seasons. Yeah, in retrospect after he blew out his knee and struggled seemingly all season to find his game it became an easy thing to criticize. All the guy costed us at the time was cap space, which we still have plenty of, and the upside was him playing at a decent level and having huge value as a trade piece down the road with a value contract.

Hopefully he can turn things around and have a super 2019-20 with 30-4o points going into the deadline and renewed interest around the league from teams going for it and we can all look back and laugh when a 1st + comes back our way in another deadline deal. Then this signing won't look bad at all.

 

[Alluckks]

Kreider Zib Kakko
Chytil Strome Buch
Lias Howden Kravstov
Lemmy Nieves Fast

Those top 3 RWs would move up and down to any of the top 3 lines all season
Lias and Lemmy likely switch on game to game basis too
Chytil as 2C with Panarin on wing; that is a high ceiling forwards group that can play well in the playoffs as soon as next year
The Defense is another story

 

[Ghost of jas]

I'm not arguing about the context around the Stepan trade. The idea is that if you don't think Lias and DeAngelo are major parts of the rebuild then I have no dang idea what to tell you. At the time of the trade the Rangers were clearly not in the same rebuild mindset that they have been in for the last year+, or arguably not even in an actual rebuild mindset at all. However, hindsight clearly favors that trade as a major starting point to the rebuild.

Just because the train didn't start moving at 100 mph out of the gate doesn't mean it wasn't moving.

The only players I’m convinced are major parts of the rebuild right now are Kravtsov, Miller, Kakko once he’s officially Rangers’ property and likely Fox and Chytil. There is still so much left to be done.

 

[NYR Viper]

The fact that the team targeted DeAngelo and then signed Shattenkirk should show that him signing in NY was a bit of a surprise.

 

[Alluckks]

The only players I’m convinced are major parts of the rebuild right now are Kravtsov, Miller, Kakko once he’s officially Rangers’ property and likely Fox and Chytil. There is still so much left to be done.

If that is all you see then you're gonna be rebuilding a rebuild of a rebuild 9 years from now

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

If that is all you see then you're gonna be rebuilding a rebuild of a rebuild 9 years from now

To be fair, he said major pieces, not just pieces

 

[Ghost of jas]

If that is all you see then you're gonna be rebuilding a rebuild of a rebuild 9 years from now

No, it means there’s still a lot of unknowns. There are two more drafts to come, this year and next. It’s possible that the Rangers will draft players that will push current prospects out due to competition. It’s possible that Gorton uses some of the depth he’s accumulated to trade for a player that fits the long term plan better than prospects that are currently here. He already showed he was willing to move assets for Fox. I can’t sit here and tell you that for certain, Howden will be the 3rd line center two years from now, or that Morgan Barron doesn’t force his way into the plans. What if Gorton trades up to get someone like Dach or Newhook, and next year, has the opportunity to draft another high end center like Lundell? After the draft last year, the debate became who was the better forward prospect, Kravtsov or Chytil. And, now, Kakko is likely to become the most talented forward this franchise has had the opportunity to draft. There is still so much to be learned.

 

[Ghost of jas]

To be fair, he said major pieces, not just pieces

Exactly. And the most talented players that are in the organization that could make up a big part of the core - Kakko, Kravtsov, Miller and Fox - have yet to play a game for the Rangers.

 

[Tawnos]

The fact that the team targeted DeAngelo and then signed Shattenkirk should show that him signing in NY was a bit of a surprise.

That was such a bizarre few months for the RD. We signed Bereglazov and Pionk. We bought out Girardi. We acquired DeAngelo. We resigned Smith. We signed Shattenkirk. Klein retired.

All of this happened between April 27 and July 7.