Proposal: Roster Building Thread Part X: I Get No Points Out of You

[bernmeister]

I know, at least crazy. That type can also be valuable, but you want to buy them on the rise. A 22 y/o Shaw would have been perfect for us. OTOH, he is only 26 y/o. Signed until he is 30 y/o.

He played so many games from 2010 to 2015, plays a very physical game. Won two Cups and one Memorial Cup. If you look at the Shaw we saw in the POs last season -- that was worthless -- it was a player that just wasn't in the same shape that the one that played so well for Chicago. Will he go downhill from now or shape up? Who knows.

Lets say just for example that MTL would retain 1.3m per on Shaw and move him for Bereglazov. 4 years remaining. You would want to be sure that he would deliver, don't think we have any connections to anyone knowing Shaw. IF -- and its a bit if -- he would deliver, then it could be a good move. Depth player, experienced winner. RHS. Can take FOs. Gritty.

Sorry, huge no, forget every other aspect, would rather have Bear gloves.

...Henrik Lundquist has been far from stellar as well. Very inconsistent. Poor numbers. He carries a $8,5 M caphit with a $9 M salary. This is 11,3% of the total salary space. Together these two players represent 21,7% of the available space on the team and EVEN more of the space used. This is the Main reason for our abyssmal start. This team should not be 3-6-2 after 11 games, mostly at MSG. No doubt. Alotting this much of the total available resources to garner Such a medger return - in Any company - and you are in big trouble. Unless everybody else seriously over performs- which has not been the case. A similar argument - albeit not as bad statistically - can be made about Kevin Shattenkirks first 11 games and the defensive flaws exhibited. Our three most expensive contracts with over 30% of the cap. Apologists need not reply here. Because there is No reasonable defense to this. Hopefully it changes. At least Nashes contract expires this offseason. Hanks contract status and remaining length is very worrisome - to say the least. And also at least: Hayes, Miller, Vesey and Skjei will all be reasonable resignings as it looks now. Boo, not so much.

Hank is a special situation; however, either he cuts the mustard, or, at some point, he pulls a Lou Gehrig and takes himself out of the lineup, then off the team.
We are not yet THERE as relates to him.
We are at a place where he seems slower to react, impacting results. It is POSSIBLE that with more work, he can return somewhat to form, increasingly less so tho over the balance of his deal. While not able to change that his results will be uneven, increasingly worse, we hope that he can still hold steady enough to be adequate while making the unconscious save 2-3 times during big games.
Looking ahead, however, we should get at least a 10 game look at Hulska, do more than a cup of coffee w/Halverson -- if he plays well that will increase his value. To accommodate that, Hank must accept, as a matter of being a stand up guy, multiple 'reconditioning' assignments.
Nash should have been moved last year, again, thanks, win now crowd for being wrong yet again.
I think we can move Nash in a package, take something down, and hope for conditional add -- if Nash produces, statistically, we get the add; if not, then no, but that's fine.
Just move him out NOW before he gets injured and we are stuck with him.

Fun facts @BBK Nash get top line minutes TOI each game. Pls. send AV circus clown back to Canada.
Nieves should start the season - he was good in training camp when I watched him and I commented about it in pre season - AV decisions are just confusing me the recent years.

If you can`t produce with top TOI - guy is a nerve wreck. Nash should rest some games if AV can`t give him 4th line minutes like Kreider last game. Kreider with 13:45 TOI last game, Vesey 12:51 Nash with 16:46 TOI.

Another great piece for us is playing hockey in Sweden in Lias, but fine with me to develop him one year there, but he could certainly contribute in NHL as well.

Here's the thing, at the end of the day, when people want to talk about trading Nash for an amazing return, there has to be more to offer an opposing team that "He's been one of the best forwards this year. Just happens to be shooting 2 percent." This is especially true if people think we're getting a better than average prospect or a first round pick. ..., at some point, production/results are going to be a part of the standard of how a player is judged, regardless of how bad or good they are playing.

Concur, pls see my prior posts

 

[Off Sides]

I'd think any team interested in Nash would probably review some tape of his games rather than just look at how many goals he did not score. Hanzal last year at the deadline had 16 goals, 26 pts, he is injured all the time and he still returned a bunch albeit he is a center. Nash at the deadline, I mean other than something really crazy, should have numbers comparable to that. Finding the right trade, different market and all, them not getting at least a 1st would be surprising. I tend to believe the only reason the Rangers did not give up a 1st for E Staal was because they did not have one, not so much because they really negotiated not including it.

 

[GregSirico]

I am happy Stepan got a great ovation from the crowd. The Rangers made the correct decision to trade him. The trade should help the Rangers starting next season for quite a while.

I’m not so confident in our FO to make the right choices moving fwd.

 

[Edge]

I am pretty sure the big bang just happened all over again from the sheer irony of the section in bold.



Well, when you live in a what if universe, everything happens in that what if universe. The problem is, most other teams don't live in that space.

I think we could fetch a decent return for him with the way he is playing. He still adds value and to a team on a cup run would be a very important player. I don't think we get a 1st + for him with his current level of play.

If his production picks up, I think they can probably get a second and a b-level prospect. That's a return with some value. But we're not getting a first or a prospect who is ready for the show with what he's currently producing. He gets to a point where he projects in the 20 goal, 40 point range? Sure, that is possible. But right now, we're nowhere close to that.

 

[TheTakedown]

Hey listen, even if Nash brings back a 2nd and a decent prospect, we could potentially trade both of our 2018 2nds for another 2018 1st. There is probably a non-lottery team that is willing to make that trade.

if the Rangers keep up this pace they'll end up with a top 10 pick in the draft + a top 25 pick via trade.

If Nash brings back a 1st on his own that'd be stellar. I agree his shooting percentage sucks ass right now, unfortunately I also believe that it's due to lack of skill and not bad luck. Regardless, I think we are undervaluing him, as a desperate GM would love to imitate an LA Kings Gaborik-like Resurgance out of Nash.

If his production picks up, I think they can probably get a second and a b-level prospect. That's a return with some value. But we're not getting a first or a prospect who is ready for the show with what he's currently producing. He gets to a point where he projects in the 20 goal, 40 point range? Sure, that is possible. But right now, we're nowhere close to that.

If the Rangers retain 50% of his salary (which they can absolutely afford to do at the deadline). then he would absolutely be worth either a 2nd and a good prospect or a 1st rounder. If Nash starts playing up to a 45 point pace AND we retain salary, he'll be worth a 1st rounder and a prospect/2nd rounder... maybe throw in a random pick as well.

 

[TheTakedown]

I'd think any team interested in Nash would probably review some tape of his games rather than just look at how many goals he did not score. Hanzal last year at the deadline had 16 goals, 26 pts, he is injured all the time and he still returned a bunch albeit he is a center. Nash at the deadline, I mean other than something really crazy, should have numbers comparable to that. Finding the right trade, different market and all, them not getting at least a 1st would be surprising. I tend to believe the only reason the Rangers did not give up a 1st for E Staal was because they did not have one, not so much because tyhe really negotiated not including it.

https://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2017/2...ade-deadline-2017-fletcher-chayka-draft-picks

Totally agree with you here. Hanzal had 26 points in 51 games... That's roughly a .5 PPG pace. Nash when his shooting percentage does not suck ass is also a .5 PPG player (more technically, but whatever). Wild paid a 1st, 2nd, and conditional 2nd--all for Hanzal (a 3C), White (3/4 line tweener forward), and a 4th Rounder (mid draft pick)..

Hell, Tommy Wingels put up 8 points in 37 games for SJS last year and STILL returned 2 prospects and a 7th.

 

[Off Sides]

GMs with visions of grandeur like to gamble. If Nash is seen even as just a hard working player who puts pucks at the net, they will gamble some of the pucks either go in or create something that goes in.

Really I am more concerned the Rangers do not sell because they have their own visions of grandeur, or that Nash becomes injured than I am about the possible less than ideal return

 

[RangerBoy]

I'd think any team interested in Nash would probably review some tape of his games rather than just look at how many goals he did not score. Hanzal last year at the deadline had 16 goals, 26 pts, he is injured all the time and he still returned a bunch albeit he is a center. Nash at the deadline, I mean other than something really crazy, should have numbers comparable to that. Finding the right trade, different market and all, them not getting at least a 1st would be surprising. I tend to believe the only reason the Rangers did not give up a 1st for E Staal was because they did not have one, not so much because tyhe really negotiated not including it.

Eric Staal had a full NTC. He was willing to waive for the Rangers and another team. I think it was Chicago but they already acquired Andrew Ladd. Rick Nash has a limited NTC. The Rangers can ask him for a trade list of 12 teams. The Rangers can trade him to one of those teams. Pierre LeBrun reported the Rangers have not asked Nash to submit a list. There’s plenty of time for that.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Brooks said it best recently, and it's nothing new. .. rangers don't have enough "leading men"... too many support players...

In the off season I pointed to the teams that won the SC this last decade. .. even one hit wonders like CAR, TBL,... loaded with top end scorers. ..

Rangers will go nowhere unless they can bring in some top flight talent

I have said that for years. I wanted Stamkos and got told repeatedly by several posters how Stepan, RNH, and Nash were better for us in various ways. Last season I kept being told about our offensive depth. I said that come tighter playoff games a lot of that depth would not produce consistently.

Now with that said we have won 2 of our last 3 so I push for the cup continues!!! (joke)

 

[NickyFotiu]

I can not believe Boo had 3 points last night while Nash has 1 point in 11 games. That is nuts. Bern your guy played well!

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

The Rangers really wanted Patrick and wanted to move up to the #3 pick. But he was gone then, as expected. We were not getting #1 or #2 from Jersey or Philly. Such is life

I knew that had to be the case

When they were making all that noise to try and get the 3rd from Dallas, I knew it couldn't be for Makar

 

[E-Train]

Bern your guy played well!

Bern burned the board.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Bern burned the board.

Bern gets more grief than anyone on this board by far so I'm happy Boo had a good night last night. I'm okay with Chara playing wing for us as well but I draw the line at Marc Staal playing wing

 

[E-Train]

Bern gets more grief than anyone on this board by far so I'm happy Boo had a good night last night. I'm okay with Chara playing wing for us as well but I draw the line at Marc Staal playing wing

Based on last night, Chara would kill it as a 4th line winger.

 

[Edge]

Hey listen, even if Nash brings back a 2nd and a decent prospect, we could potentially trade both of our 2018 2nds for another 2018 1st. There is probably a non-lottery team that is willing to make that trade.

if the Rangers keep up this pace they'll end up with a top 10 pick in the draft + a top 25 pick via trade.

If Nash brings back a 1st on his own that'd be stellar. I agree his shooting percentage sucks ass right now, unfortunately I also believe that it's due to lack of skill and not bad luck. Regardless, I think we are undervaluing him, as a desperate GM would love to imitate an LA Kings Gaborik-like Resurgance out of Nash.



If the Rangers retain 50% of his salary (which they can absolutely afford to do at the deadline). then he would absolutely be worth either a 2nd and a good prospect or a 1st rounder. If Nash starts playing up to a 45 point pace AND we retain salary, he'll be worth a 1st rounder and a prospect/2nd rounder... maybe throw in a random pick as well.

That's part of the challenge, that's a lot of ifs. If Nash quadrupled the number of goals and points he had, he'd be tied with the ifs.

Joking aside though, I can certainly see a second and a prospect. Anything more is going to require a bit more. It's not just the production, it's the health, it's what teams feel he brings besides production. And probably most important, does Nash fill a need that makes them a better playoff team?

At the end of the day, it's that last question that is going to determine the return on Nash more than any other individual aspect. If you believe Nash completes a line that makes you a better, more successful playoff team, you're going to pay more. If you think he's a nice, but not essential addition, you're going to pay less.

We'll have a better idea of where everything stands in about 10 weeks.

 

[SA16]

Here's the thing, at the end of the day, when people want to talk about trading Nash for an amazing return, there has to be more to offer an opposing team that "He's been one of the best forwards this year. Just happens to be shooting 2 percent." This is especially true if people think we're getting a better than average prospect or a first round pick.

And yeah, to some extent, if he was shooting 10 percent (5 times better) and had five goals, and a pace for 20-25 goals, it would be a different story. I mean, how would it not? If Lundqvist gave up 1 less goal per game and stopped 5 more shots per night it would change that conversation too. Any result for a player is going to change the conversation, because, at some point, production/results are going to be a part of the standard of how a player is judged, regardless of how bad or good they are playing.

Yea the problem is judging things by results and not the process. Results have tons of variance in them. Process does not. Judging things based on results is how you make bad trades and signings - particularly with regards to overpaying people who have big playoff resumes ora reputation of being a "winner".

 

[bernmeister]

I am pretty sure the big bang just happened all over again from the sheer irony of the section in bold. ....

Instead of irony, maybe you could just admit that I was right about several things some crucified me for; such as
Kreider
Miller
Stepan
Nieves
and others.

I don't claim to have ALL the answers, but those who had a closed mind about my thinking outside the box and not capitulating to their limited win now views, feel free to admit I was right more than I was wrong.

 

[Edge]

Yea the problem is judging things by results and not the process. Results have tons of variance in them. Process does not. Judging things based on results is how you make bad trades and signings - particularly with regards to overpaying people who have big playoff resumes ora reputation of being a "winner".

Ultimately, for better or worse, it's going to come down to how other teams view Nash. I think I said this in another thread (they all start to blend together), but Nash's return will come down to whether a team feels he helps complete a unit they already have in place. If they think Nash is the two-way addition to complete a forward line, they'll be likely to pay more.

I worry that people will be disappointed by the Nash return and think that we were fleeced.

 

[bernmeister]

I can not believe Boo had 3 points last night while Nash has 1 point in 11 games. That is nuts. Bern your guy played well!

Bern burned the board.

Bern gets more grief than anyone on this board by far so I'm happy Boo had a good night last night. I'm okay with Chara playing wing for us as well but I draw the line at Marc Staal playing wing

Thanks guys and also to Hi who had a kind comment in a thread closed too early for me to provide comment.

Let me remind for the record:
Chara was only in the context of our moving a wonder twin, like Girardi.
Staal to LW is only if he won't waive, we can't move him or yet buy him out, don't want to sit him EVERY game, and wanted to find a position that was less demanding esp at skating than D.

As for Boo, yes it was only 1 game vs not the toughest competition.
But my main point WAS PROVEN CORRECT.
Boo's size, speed and energy can be tapped and IF you just ask him to contribute defensively only holding his own, not asking him to be Jan Erixon, and ask him only to help basically on offense unselfishly, not saddle him with responsibility to create offensively, he can deliver.

The more complementary his Ws, the more evident this will be.
Grabner is also super speed, so that = real synergy; okay with the right RW.

As I have said, maybe only 5% chance for lightning in a bottle, but if we got MacKinnon added w/out giving up Zib/Miller, CK and NM would be ideal guys size and speed wise who could 100% take full responsibility for create offense responsibilities. Boo could keep up with them and do what he did last night.

Then, the bonus is IF you do get lightning in a bottle, then
1st line Kreider-Boo-MacK
2nd " Chytil - Miller -Zib
THAT is a recipe for DOMINATION

 

[NickyFotiu]

Thanks guys and also to Hi who had a kind comment in a thread closed too early for me to provide comment.

Let me remind for the record:
Chara was only in the context of our moving a wonder twin, like Girardi.
Staal to LW is only if he won't waive, we can't move him or yet buy him out, don't want to sit him EVERY game, and wanted to find a position that was less demanding esp at skating than D.

As for Boo, yes it was only 1 game vs not the toughest competition.
But my main point WAS PROVEN CORRECT.
Boo's size, speed and energy can be tapped and IF you just ask him to contribute defensively only holding his own, not asking him to be Jan Erixon, and ask him only to help basically on offense unselfishly, not saddle him with responsibility to create offensively, he can deliver.

The more complementary his Ws, the more evident this will be.
Grabner is also super speed, so that = real synergy; okay with the right RW.

As I have said, maybe only 5% chance for lightning in a bottle, but if we got MacKinnon added w/out giving up Zib/Miller, CK and NM would be ideal guys size and speed wise who could 100% take full responsibility for create offense responsibilities. Boo could keep up with them and do what he did last night.

Then, the bonus is IF you do get lightning in a bottle, then
1st line Kreider-Boo-MacK
2nd " Chytil - Miller -Zib
THAT is a recipe for DOMINATION

Speaking of Nate why is he playing like Nash so far this season?

 

[bernmeister]

Speaking of Nate why is he playing like Nash so far this season?

Unknown.
Extrapolation that makes most sense is he is thinking about playing his way out, and is not going full gear.

Do we have any reason to think he is damaged goods or, overnight, not worth all that and a bag of chips?

 

[I Eat Crow]

With due respect to Bern, I'll wait for a few more games of Nieves before I praise him. Everything else I've seen up until last night was that he's a speedy player with size, but overpasses. I also question his defensive zone positioning and overall hockey IQ at times. Last night was a nice start, but I want to see him do that against teams that aren't Arizona.

I do like the chemistry with him and Grabner though. Speed, speed, and more speed.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If Vesey doesnt pan out and Nash/Grabner leave next offseason that leaves some significant holes at wing.

I do see Chytil as a winger in this league with Andersson at center.

But its unlikely, unless there is a trade, that NYR will be able to fill many holes via free agency given the amount they will have to pay on upcoming contracts for Miller, Hayes, and Skjei.

NYR have practically zero wing prospects (Besides Chytil) with an NHL probability above around 10%.

We have 0 wing depth right now, but we could have some next season.

Lets say Nash goes, Grabner goes, and Vesey doesn't pan out.

We have a baseline of this

Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Chytil-Miller-Zuccarello
?-Hayes-Andersson
?-Nieves-Fast

3LW could be filled by Gettinger, Virta or Gropp. Surely one of the three has to be ready by next season? And if not, we could always sign another Desharnais to play that role. Last fourth line spot can go to Lettieri or Fontaine.

Right now, I'm not even sure we have 9 NHL forwards. Next season, I think we might have more depth.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yes, we need to draft wingers next summer.
Spot on analysis.

I don`t think we can draft R. Dahlin even if we end up with the # 1st overall pick. Unless they have plans to move Ryan Mc. contract for a winger next season.

You don't pass up drafting the best player in the draft due to organizational need. That could ruin your franchise.

 

[Lion Hound]

Feel like AV builds his team from the 4th line out. Grabner is such a fun player to have on your club. Add Buchnevich to his wing and it makes it that much better. Nieves played well in his debut. Love having another guy with wheels and size too. Clearly has hands like feet still, and the 3points was not expected. I hate that #89 is playing on the 4th line, but if it remains effective and they can find the back of the net then no need to change it up.

Last year I felt like this club had numerous lines going that resulted in numerous scoring chances no matter who was out there. This year that obviously hasent been the case. I'm not convinced however that they wont find this chemistry again. Not convinced this club is a cellar dweller. At the same time I'm not convinced this roster is a playoff thread. With that said...Mired in Mediocrity!