Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VII: Return of Beaver Brad

[CasusBelli]

I think you're confused.

Jagr didn't score 45 goals last year - he's 45 years old.

 

[TheTakedown]

I very comfortably offer Nash a 3x4.5m extension and hope he takes it.

Even that's too much... On this team he's a 40 point 3rd liner, that player should get no more than $4M at his age, and considering the trending down and the lack of drive that this guy brings, I'm not even comfortable giving him that especially since he's had issues staying healthy the past 2 seasons.

 

[SA16]

Jagr is very good at ES.
He is not very good on the PP.
This is not still 2006 why does this narrative never end.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

If Nash score close to 30.. and I think he will... he'll break $6M.

Rangers need to see if Vesey can be that 20-20 two-way player this year and backfill Nash's minutes. Doubt it.

Nash at $4-$5M is still a good bargain. Issue with Rick has always been the motor. He'll show up this year. It's a walk year.

There was a GM back in 2012 that pulled out of the Nash sweeps early because of the motor being an issue.

Nash's motor his not once been an issue since he's been a Ranger. Why are we considering what some anonymous GM thought back in 2012 when we've seen him bust his ass for the last 5 years as a Ranger?

If anything he works too hard, people criticize him saying he focuses too much on PK and playing good d and two way game.

 

[bernmeister]

Nash is currently making 7.8m a year. He is a UFA at the end of this season. I personally love his two way game and his drive on the play. However his production is down and he isn't playing even close to the value of his contract. If he stays in NY but takes a pay cut I would be happy. However those are a lot of ifs since he can most likely get a lot more in FA.

Do you want him to stay and for how much? Term?

not only don't I want him back, want to trade now to recover salary and add pick(s).

I hope not. His production is going to decline even further. I'd rather give his ice time to younger players.

this^

he will get what he deserves, 3-4ish m short term 2-3 yrs, unless some GM goes crazy. But that is not best for us
Play da kids

 

[Mac n Gs]

You know, just because some people constantly repeat that Nash is a 3rd liner, doesn't change actual reality where that's not true. Some agendas here are so ****ing annoying.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Just saw a picture of Nash for the Winter Classic. He looks like he dropped some weight. Face, arms, and torso look much thinner.

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

lol

been all over that idea for weeks

Must have missed it between the pages of shot blocking 101

 

[Mac n Gs]

Just saw a picture of Nash for the Winter Classic. He looks like he dropped some weight. Face, arms, and torso look much thinner.

Slim reaper is back! Pickle Rick!

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

Even that's too much... On this team he's a 40 point 3rd liner, that player should get no more than $4M at his age, and considering the trending down and the lack of drive that this guy brings, I'm not even comfortable giving him that especially since he's had issues staying healthy the past 2 seasons.

His numbers all say you have an agenda.

 

[VoynovsParoleOfficer]

not only don't I want him back, want to trade now to recover salary and add pick(s).



this^

he will get what he deserves, 3-4ish m short term 2-3 yrs, unless some GM goes crazy. But that is not best for us
Play da kids

oh boy i think youll be surprised, i can see him re-signing 2x 4.5 as a good hometown discount for a team that has treated him extremely well. i can see other teams of lesser talent offering 2x5.5-6 and thats still not a rip off for what you are getting

 

[TheTakedown]

Nash's motor his not once been an issue since he's been a Ranger. Why are we considering what some anonymous GM thought back in 2012 when we've seen him bust his ass for the last 5 years as a Ranger?

If anything he works too hard, people criticize him saying he focuses too much on PK and playing good d and two way game.

Watch how many games he's been just a floater... it happens more than you think

 

[TheTakedown]

His numbers all say you have an agenda.

I've explained why it's ******** when people use the HERO chart to compare Nash to the typical archetypes of players. The HERO Chart includes Nash's 14-15 season, which is an outlier to the rest of Nash's play.

I'm not advocating that Nash is a useless, slugging plug that shouldn't touch NHL ice. I'm saying that Nash isn't what he was even 2 years ago, and if you look at individual stats from 14-15 and then compare them to 15-16 and 16-17, they are very different.

Unless these HERO charts are indicating the 15-16 season, then I am completely in the wrong here.

Last thing, the other thing that HERO charts do not take into account is games player. Nash has missed nearly 40 games over the past 2 seasons, and he's not getting any younger

 

[offdacrossbar]

I think you're confused.

Jagr didn't score 45 goals last year - he's 45 years old.

nash would need to live to be a hundred to do that

 

[offdacrossbar]

Jagr is very good at ES.
He is not very good on the PP.
This is not still 2006 why does this narrative never end.

the narrative still says he's better than mr stuff and things though.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Watch how many games he's been just a floater... it happens more than you think

I've watched every single game of Nash's Rangers career.

He's not a floater. He never has been, at least not as a Ranger. If you legitimately think he's a floater, I think you just have a problem with Nash so you're seeing what you want to see.

 

[NickyFotiu]

I've watched every single game of Nash's Rangers career.

He's not a floater. He never has been, at least not as a Ranger. If you legitimately think he's a floater, I think you just have a problem with Nash so you're seeing what you want to see.

He has a moment here and there. Almost all players do. One of the strangest was going for a change while we defended an odd man rush vs Pitt in the playoffs.

 

[offdacrossbar]

I've watched every single game of Nash's Rangers career.

He's not a floater. He never has been, at least not as a Ranger. If you legitimately think he's a floater, I think you just have a problem with Nash so you're seeing what you want to see.

lets clarify

he has periods- sometimes extended, where he's ineffective and looks lost. and when those times happen, his skating seems to be short bursts of energy followed by lots of coasting and non productive play. to me, he looks tired and lumbering and that shot of his is cringe worthy. 6 hole middle of the logo from a bad angle at maybe 25 mph.

the "narrative" with all the fan boys here continues to be this:

"yeah, he's not scoring but he's very close....just bad luck and he does other stuff like skate hard, check, PK (which sucked last year btw) and his locker room playlist is the best on the team from what im told"

at 7.8, for what he brings, hes wayyyyy over paid and wanting him back is completely ridiculous at any price. younger cheaper faster better. (except JJ)

you think any other team would pay him that today ?? um no.

time to let go.

 

[Roo Returns]

Nash has averaged like 37.6 points or whatever as a Ranger besides the 14-15 campaign. He has a lot of mileage and damage. His game was more power but then came the Lucic and Stuart concussions, and leg and shoulder issues. He doesn't drive to the net like he used to. Once in a while.

He's a 20G-20A guy nowadays. Like Bates Battaglia, Jeff O'Neil, Trent Hunter, and Mike Leclerc before the lockout, and like Dustin Byfuglien when he was doing the hybrid D/F thing.

He's a slightly over $3 million player. Anything more is just based on reputation.

 

[Harbour Dog]

at 7.8, for what he brings, hes wayyyyy over paid and wanting him back is completely ridiculous at any price. younger cheaper faster better. (except JJ)

This reads to me that you would take Jagr over Nash at the same price. Is that actually what you are saying?

 

[CasusBelli]

not only don't I want him back, want to trade now to recover salary and add pick(s).



this^

he will get what he deserves, 3-4ish m short term 2-3 yrs, unless some GM goes crazy. But that is not best for us
Play da kids

I thought of a way to approximate a player's Fair Value (quite subjective in some parts). Allow me to illustrate via example. Suppose the following:

- Player X is 34 years old and has accumulated $95MM over his career.
- Player Y is 36 years old and had accumulated $100MM by the time he was 34
- Player Y has currently accumulated $110MM
- Player Y has $2MM / Year for the next five years on his current contract
- Player Y will not play past 36 + 5 = 41 years old
- Player X and player Y will have played the same number of seasons

Then the total career earnings of Player Y will be:
V(Y, Total) = $110MM + $2MM / year * 5 years = $120MM

Player Y had accumulated $100MM / $120MM = 5/6 of his worth by the time he was 34. Therefore, based on the above, Player X has accumulated 5/6 of his total career earnings as well. Player X's remaining value is thus:

V(X, Age > 34) = $95MM * (1/6)

Spread over the remaining seven years of his career, Player X will make:

V(X, Age > 34) / Year = $95MM * (1/6) * (1/7) = $2.26MM / Year

The preceding might be unrealistic, however, as player salaries tend to decline as careers wind down. Therefore: we should distribute the remaining cash flows for Player X the same way Player Y's are (I'll omit this part of the calculation) -- rather than hold them constant.


Thoughts? (I realize that the above is probably not applicable to most players -- not least because it's often tough to find reasonable comps and predict when players retire)

 

[offdacrossbar]

This reads to me that you would take Jagr over Nash at the same price. Is that actually what you are saying?

jagr for 1 year at 3.5 all day.

gets me the same or better production for half price.

plus, we get to move rick for whatever he returns.

no brainer.

 

[CasusBelli]

jagr for 1 year at 3.5 all day.

gets me the same or better production for half price.

plus, we get to move rick for whatever he returns.

no brainer.

I suppose the bigger question is: Who would take on $7.8MM (even if for one year) for a penalty killer and, hopefully, 30 goals? Sounds pricey.

 

[Hire Sather]

Jagr is not more productive than Nash.

You want to lose another PKer?

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

lets clarify

he has periods- sometimes extended, where he's ineffective and looks lost. and when those times happen, his skating seems to be short bursts of energy followed by lots of coasting and non productive play. to me, he looks tired and lumbering and that shot of his is cringe worthy. 6 hole middle of the logo from a bad angle at maybe 25 mph.

the "narrative" with all the fan boys here continues to be this:

"yeah, he's not scoring but he's very close....just bad luck and he does other stuff like skate hard, check, PK (which sucked last year btw) and his locker room playlist is the best on the team from what im told"

at 7.8, for what he brings, hes wayyyyy over paid and wanting him back is completely ridiculous at any price. younger cheaper faster better. (except JJ)

you think any other team would pay him that today ?? um no.

time to let go.

Uh, I agree 7.8m is too much for him. I said I would re-sign him at 4.5m. I think Nash with his two way game and 20-20 stats going forward would be fine at 4.5m. A complimentary middle 6 piece.