Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VI: Gorton's Way

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Avery16

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That is because Anisimov has established himself in this league. Athanasiou has not. You dont trade 1st or 2nd round picks for a guy who has had one good season.

Anisimov has established himself. Both as a good, valuable player but also as one who wont produce more than a 3C on a competitive team should. And he's paid like a 2C.

You pay a higher price for a prospect/young roster player because their value (risky though it is) is over a longer period of time. Also there is a window where their contract will be for less than their output. You don't get those with Anisimov. You get those with Athanasiou.
 

Kaapo Cabana

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Yep. A 2nd rounder for a guy who scored 9 goals in 37 games in 2015-2016 and 18 goals in 64 games last year is an absolute no brainer. Especially when you consider that you are unlikely to draft someone in round 2 who will even play 100 games (which AA already has).

I'd trade a 2nd + 3rd and not think twice. The kid is 23, fits the make up of our team and can score.

The problem is that some posters want to acquire tons and tons of picks, go through 3 - 10 years of suck and then finally have a bunch of 20 year olds all hitting the NHL at the same time in order to live out some NHL 17-esque cup dynasty fantasy.



Yes you do and I have laid out twice why you should. He scored 9 goals in 37 games the year before (roughly the same goal scoring pace as last year). Even if the kid completely drops off the face of the earth, the 2nd round pick would likely not become an NHLer either.

100% Agree

Anthanasiou fits in perfectly here. We should be sending some sort of combination of Graves/Nieves/Gropp/2nd/3rd.

plenty of pieces to get this done without a major asset purge
 

Avery16

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AA absolutely worth a 1st rounder. In both his first two seasons hes putting up .5 points per game, and he's 23. Miller had a slower/comparable development. 1st rounders in themselves are no guarantee. How many duds have we had? A first for AA is a risk but the odds are solidly in our favor.
 

Kaapo Cabana

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AA absolutely worth a 1st rounder. In both his first two seasons hes putting up .5 points per game, and he's 23. Miller had a slower/comparable development. 1st rounders in themselves are no guarantee. How many duds have we had? A first for AA is a risk but the odds are solidly in our favor.

I also would send a first rounder (alone), but would rather send a combination of lesser things
 

Gardner McKay

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Really? Because I have seen plenty of 2nd round picks become NHLers recently. Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, just to name a few. Youre right, lets trade that 2nd round pick asap...

While I believe in this year's team to compete, given the movew Gorton has been making to transition the team, I am not moving 1st or 2nd round picks.

Sure they do. Statistically, its about a 33% chance that they play 100 games. What you're saying is that you would rather keep a 2nd rounder who has a low % of becoming a full time NHLer instead of trading it for a kid who is already an NHLer and still has some upside.

Got it. :laugh:
 

Edge

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I'd so a second and a prospect (or a pick in a different draft) in a heartbeat for AA.

26 goals in 101 games and barely 23 years of age? You bet.

I'm not sure there's a huge offensive upside to be found - meaning I think he'll probably stay in that 20 goal range from here on out. However, you take that and run with it.

AA is one of those guys who has made for a more impressive looking NHL'er than one would've believed by watching him at the lower levels. Some guys are like that, there game is better suited to filling a niche at the NHL level than it was as a go-to guy at the lower levels.
 

Avery16

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Sure, something like Holden, Nieves and a 3rd is better for us than a 1st and accomplishes the same. This is a lot of talk about a player that Detroit might not be shopping.
 

bernmeister

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How would they have done that?

Seemed like the 8+goalie would've meant they had to buy out Staal and expose McDonagh to keep Lindberg. It wasn't like they could just expose Holden to protect Lindberg.

Unless you're suggesting we had given LV a pick to choose Holden.
Agree, 8+ goalie would not have worked....

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Well, they could have gotten the stepan trade done before the expansion draft and then protected Lindberg. Though they would have most likely lost Fast at that point.

that was one piece in the equation.

another, and apologies I missed who said it, would have been to move Nash.
Had we moved Nash early enough during the season when he had production value to contribute to the stretch run and playoffs, we could have gotten, maybe not top dollar, but something more substantive. We waited, he got injured. Then we could have moved him prior to the expdraft, which would have freed up a slot and most of his cap, depending on the deal
SJ still makes the most sense; can afford the whole cap hit, is a fit. Don't be greedy, Gorton, we are better off setting up for the future and not gambling Rick gets hurt or starts slow.


You're absolutely right about the Holden situation... IMO 2 of the kids have to make a push to force a Holden trade.

They should have incentivized Vegas if they knew of losing Lindberg... but the assets weren't there to act as a trade chip... the Rangers did try and negotiate.

Market value was set very high by teams like ANA, MIN, NYI who needed favors done with the Expansion draft. ANA in particular.. Shea Theodore to lose Stoner?? That is a high premium to pay.

With the signings this off-season, the Rangers really need to look and see if there is an internal forward option (or three) for the 4th line that can handle 20-25 games.

Once the Thanksgiving marker hits, you will see teams on the outside looking in start to make moves... I think the Rangers needs will be obvious by then.

Holden @ 50% + Nieves for a Premium 4th line Center would be a contender like move. LA makes a good trade partner. I'm partial to Brodzinski.. Shore is another proven option... but if Jonny B can PK... that's an excellent pick up imo.

great all around post. but,
IMO 2 of the kids have to make a push to force a Holden trade
disagree. We should not go to the other extreme and throw kids to the wolves, sink or swim; but we do not need to constantly, overcautiously, overprotect them either.

Day is not ready, tho he has shaped up since being drafted and progresses nicely. I give him up to the 10 game max peek to incentivize him further, but prob only 3-5 games vs weaker teams to give regular guys a breather.

I am bullish on Graves, Beargloves and Pionk. We should be making room for these guys, not holding back for guys like Holden.

However, I am not eager to move Nieves yet. Too much raw talent to give the short shrift for denying him roster spot. Yes, he has to earn it, but let's not throw away a good elc with upside



BTW Vegas has 10 defensemen on one way deals, and none of whom are waiver exempt... so the teams that are short on D will pick up one of those player... say 3 of them get claimed.

They send Theodore down, and carry 7...

Rangers won't be a team that picks one up... but there are several teams across the league that are short...

The higher the waiver order... the less likely the team picks up a player... say an injury hits to one of those teams... and 2 of the kids on D make a push...

That will result in a premium plus for Holden... so from an asset management perspective, the Rangers should not be in a rush.

What they need to do... is to trade an upside prospect/farm hand... for a reliable 4th line center... and then gauge the return for Holden.

Outside of Lias Andersson... you have Nieves & Gropp as NHL level skaters... Gropp can fill a role and do it well imo... upside is not that of a top 6 guy, but his game is tailor made for a very effective bottom 6 NHLer... if the hockey wits are there, it's a matter of when and not if.

Nieves... he has deficiencies with decision making... good speed and skating ability... but very passive... very passive player.

DD will play center and make the team... I don't see him as a 82 game player... crafty veteran.. but not one you win with imo.


There will be NHL bodies on waivers this September... Gorts smart move may be to move an SPC early in training camp.. and then go for a waiver pick up.

The team is 2-3 reliable slot fillers away from contending... and that's not bad... but just a number of what ifs.

Miller in the middle as an effective center would be the biggest impact this team could gain.

We should not take less than market value for Holden. If we can manipulate that into a premium, great. IMO his value is late 1st to mid 2nd. If we have to add a 2nd to bump that up to a mid to late 1st and expedite things, it's a worthwhile investment.

As to
Nieves... he has deficiencies with decision making... good speed and skating ability... but very passive... very passive player.
I am not so sure at this point that is the case.
Yet is possible; he has had concussion issues.
However, I believe he is on track, barring injury, to progress his game.
Defensively, he could be a larger Jan Erixon type if gives up a 2 way game and focuses on this and gets help to develop in this area.

However I see atm a more overall game, basically status quo where he is defensively, but growing offensively.

Now I have maintained that just like with Kreider when we first got him, we didn't know what kind of shot he might or might not have; or how he would fill out. All we knew was CK at drafting time was = to possibly one of the 5 fastest skaters in the NHL.

I am not saying it is quite that with Boo. But his shot, what there is, may yet reveal itself. He does seem comfortable as a pivot, including as to passes. He had no Ws of worth down on the farm; handing off to guys who can bury it up here will make a difference.

As to passive, I don't believe this is so much raw indecision as to still trying to learn properly.

Miller is a good example.
When he had to think of everything before he did it, it slowed his game - in his case, we think it was understanding defensive choices/options. Once he got comfortable, it was the 2nd nature it needs to be function smoothly at highest level.

Nieves will be okay. Rough edges need to be smoothed, sure, but he will be fine.

DD I think is not just limited but sucks. Pitlick signed for same 1.0 but 3 yr deal. That was the ticket, if he was willing to come here.


Graves or Nieves and 2nd for AA
Nope.
They are in a group with upside, do not want to give up on them too soon, if at all.


AA would be huge for the team... that's Hagelin 2.0 and a center to boot. DET messed up their cap and they need to move a body to accommodate AA.

They need futures... a 2nd and 3rd is fair value from a offer sheet price... but I'd rather move bodies for him.

Nieves + Graves + 3rd for AA


or you can bail DET out by taking Sheahan for a conditional 5th.

I would rather have AA... but if they aren't moving him, one year of Sheahan as a filler can help the Rangers. 36 points two years ago.

No. You are offering above sheet price, which is fine, but in the wrong currency.
Don't want Sheahan.


A 1st round pick for AA?
Just stop. The infatuation and drooling over speed has completely scrambled some people's brains.

Agree and disagree.
Largely disagree in that "Speed kills" --- in every sport, is a common adage. A guy who can deliver it and give a competitive advantage is worth a strategic investment. Since the competition is also looking to max speed options, we should be receptive to possibilities. However, I said "and give a competitive advantage", which means no Gene Carr types pls - skates like wind but couldn't put puck in the OCEAN, per original Big Whistle Bill Chadwick. And I said "strategic" which means care as to payment and currency for it.

Agree that a 1st is the wrong currency.
The guy has a limited track record, and there is nothing wrong with gambling, within reason, that his upside will deliver going forward. However there is another factor to consider.

From a standpoint of chronological age, AA is fine.
From a standpoint of cap mgmt, we are getting a guy who would be starting his RFA yrs. That is not bad. moving from Nash [trade] Staal [trade or buy out] and Hank [retires or re-signs as backup at a team friendly 2-ishm] will provide funds to extend the young core. And that is not counting other vets.

But what is bad is, especially for a team which gambled and lost so often on EStaal, Clowe, and other foolish win now overreaches, is to give up a 1st. Use other currency of players and possibly later picks, or preferably, use of $ as a backscrach, ie DD for Helms in a package.


Detroit unfortunately isn't a match for Holden; they have Oullett, Dekeyser, Kronwall, Ericsson,Daley, Nick Jensen (the other one :laugh:), Sproul, not to mention Mike Green's huge contract with one year left.

Rangers have no need for Mike Green as an RHD because he'd be behind Shatty/Deangelo and even with salary retained it wouldn't work.

So it would literally have to be AA for prospects/picks. Sign him to a one year bridge deal in the 2.50-2.75 range, and deal with arb next summer.

A 2nd rounder plus is probably fair value for him at this point. Why? While he's only had one strong year, he's a reasonably cost controlled asset for four more seasons that can play all aspects of the game. In today's NHL young cost controlled assets > deadline rentals.

There is one other play.
we can use our cap space to take on 4 years of Helm at 3.8 for 1 yr DD at 1.0.
That is a net of 2.8 savings for DRW and most of their just over 3 cap deficit.
That's HUGE

Then as a package, a 5th for AA's rights.
We may sweeten that with conditional additional picks, something
if he signs with us [say another 5th or 5th];
or how well he performs [say a 4th which could go as high as a 2nd, but more likely a 3rd].

That would be measured
we can stopgap Helm and have the option to move him after a year or two.

Other teams might offer more for AA, but Wings are strapped as to making a return fit.
This is a win win.

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RGY

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Sure they do. Statistically, its about a 33% chance that they play 100 games. What you're saying is that you would rather keep a 2nd rounder who has a low % of becoming a full time NHLer instead of trading it for a kid who is already an NHLer and still has some upside.

Got it. :laugh:
Yep. To each their own.
 

CasusBelli

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Yep. A 2nd rounder for a guy who scored 9 goals in 37 games in 2015-2016 and 18 goals in 64 games last year is an absolute no brainer. Especially when you consider that you are unlikely to draft someone in round 2 who will even play 100 games (which AA already has).

I'd trade a 2nd + 3rd and not think twice. The kid is 23, fits the make up of our team and can score.

The problem is that some posters want to acquire tons and tons of picks, go through 3 - 10 years of suck and then finally have a bunch of 20 year olds all hitting the NHL at the same time in order to live out some NHL 17-esque cup dynasty fantasy.

And let's not forget the importance of diverse ages -- not least because of how player salaries progress. A heavy skew towards talented young players is attractive in the short run but may make it very difficult to stay under the cap down the road (salaries, like the cap, increase over time). Of course, you could trade those players when they become too expensive, but you'd have to take a haircut from their "fair value."
 

Edge

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And let's not forget the importance of diverse ages -- not least because of how player salaries progress. A heavy skew towards talented young players is attractive in the short run but may make it very difficult to stay under the cap down the road (salaries, like the cap, increase over time). Of course, you could trade those players when they become too expensive, but you'd have to take a haircut from their "fair value."

While not ideal, it's still easier to get value for talent than it is to try and get value for something you don't have.

Let's for argument's sake say that AA is a steady 20 goal, 35 point player for the next several years. At the very least, the Rangers should be able to at least recoup their initial investment.

Of course, all of this for naught. Detroit might have no intention of moving him and is willing to let him go to the KHL, and we are likely one of several teams that would make an offer for AA.

Very rarely do we post about a situation like AA's on here and come away with the guy. Certainly makes for a fun off-season conversation though.
 

Gardner McKay

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While not ideal, it's still easier to get value for talent than it is to try and get value for something you don't have.

Let's for argument's sake say that AA is a steady 20 goal, 35 point player for the next several years. At the very least, the Rangers should be able to at least recoup their initial investment.

Of course, all of this for naught. Detroit might have no intention of moving him and is willing to let him go to the KHL, and we are likely one of several teams that would make an offer for AA.

Very rarely do we post about a situation like AA's on here and come away with the guy. Certainly makes for a fun off-season conversation though.

Yep. If all the Trouba talk wasn't evidence of that I don't know what is.
 

mas0764

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I don't think I'd give up a 1st for a 23 year old who is probably topping out as a 20 goal scorer, similar to a Hayes or Miller caliber guy.

Those guys are worth firsts for sure, but I feel like the Rangers have been above average drafters recently and I like the gamble that I can do better, and get someone younger and cheaper to boot.
 

CasusBelli

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While not ideal, it's still easier to get value for talent than it is to try and get value for something you don't have.

Let's for argument's sake say that AA is a steady 20 goal, 35 point player for the next several years. At the very least, the Rangers should be able to at least recoup their initial investment.

Of course, all of this for naught. Detroit might have no intention of moving him and is willing to let him go to the KHL, and we are likely one of several teams that would make an offer for AA.

Very rarely do we post about a situation like AA's on here and come away with the guy. Certainly makes for a fun off-season conversation though.

Indeed. I've been looking for game theory articles / studies on optimal trading strategies in major league sports (ideally the NHL) but to no avail. It'd be interesting to see an objective (if simplified) analysis of such a complex aspect of our game.
 

Avery16

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I don't think I'd give up a 1st for a 23 year old who is probably topping out as a 20 goal scorer, similar to a Hayes or Miller caliber guy.

Those guys are worth firsts for sure, but I feel like the Rangers have been above average drafters recently and I like the gamble that I can do better, and get someone younger and cheaper to boot.

100-something games over two pro seasons. How does anyone have a clue about where he's topping out? I saw so many fans on this and other boards calling Miller a peak bottom-sixer until a couple of seasons ago.
 

BBKers

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Sure, something like Holden, Nieves and a 3rd is better for us than a 1st and accomplishes the same. This is a lot of talk about a player that Detroit might not be shopping.

Very true. Time Will Tell if something comes out of this. Detroit has handled this situation before and not dealt the player.But something says they might deal differently at this given moment and stage. They need a rebuild from the bottom up. We are rebuilding on the fly
 

Tawnos

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Sure they do. Statistically, its about a 33% chance that they play 100 games. What you're saying is that you would rather keep a 2nd rounder who has a low % of becoming a full time NHLer instead of trading it for a kid who is already an NHLer and still has some upside.

Got it. :laugh:

Even with the Rangers, who have gotten some good results out of 2nd round picks, only 4 of 14, post 2004 firesale, have played 100 games. Granted that includes Halverson, Gropp and Nieves who aren't of an age to determine if they're going to make it that far. Also, Sauer played 98 games.

So say 5/11 for us, but we're definitively above average.
 

RGY

Kreid or Die
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Kyle Palmieri set the table for this type of deal. 2nd + 3rd.

And I feel Kyle Palmieri is a better player than AA or at the very least when the deal was made for KP there was more value there. To see some willing to deal a 1st is ludicrous.

3rd and Holden.
 

Hire Sather

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That is because Anisimov has established himself in this league. Athanasiou has not. You dont trade 1st or 2nd round picks for a guy who has had one good season.

This is kind of a funny statement in a vacuum because you would be using that pick to draft someone who has had zero good seasons :)
 

Ghost of jas

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I'd be okay moving someone like Graves, as it seems like he's been pushed down by the likes of ADA, BearGloves and Pionk. This team needs to stop bleeding draft picks.
 

NYR Viper

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I'd consider Sheahan from Detroit along with Athanasiou if it lowered the price. Looking back over the last 3 years, Sheahan has been a much better player. Last year was not a good one for him, that's obvious. One more season @ just over $2m. He's a big body and he uses it down low.

Even when he came out of college, I never expected him to be a top-6 guy. His size, strength and ability and willingness to grind led me to believe 3rd line was his peak. I think he can get back to that 25-30 point range which is a useful player.
 

TheTakedown

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Very true. Time Will Tell if something comes out of this. Detroit has handled this situation before and not dealt the player.But something says they might deal differently at this given moment and stage. They need a rebuild from the bottom up. We are rebuilding on the fly

This. If AA was 19 and still on an ELC I'd say they have no reason to trade him...

AA is, however, 23, his ELC is expired, and he needs a contract. Detroit is 3 to 5 years away from even reaching the playoffs, let alone contending for a cup. Detroit also has several contracts that they need to get out from under in order to keep that rebuild time closer to 3 years rather than 5 years...

Kyle Palmeiri was also better and had proven more in the NHL at the time of his trade and was the same age.

Double games played, double the goals, double the points.

Damn, did not know this. if that's the case, I offer:

2018 2nd
2019 3rd

Detroit's alternative is to let AA run to the KHL, which will tank his trade value down to a 2018 4th rounder at the trade deadline. AA won't want to return because he'll probably be making better money in the KHL, and Detroit's cap situation does not necessarily improve with the 2018-19 season, which will tank his trade value down to a 5th rounder in 2019...

Ball is in Holland's court. If he doesn't want to maximize the return now, AA's value will tank and he'll play out his 4 years in the KHL and then come back to the NHL as a UFA
 

Charlie Conway

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I'd consider Sheahan from Detroit along with Athanasiou if it lowered the price. Looking back over the last 3 years, Sheahan has been a much better player. Last year was not a good one for him, that's obvious. One more season @ just over $2m. He's a big body and he uses it down low.

Even when he came out of college, I never expected him to be a top-6 guy. His size, strength and ability and willingness to grind led me to believe 3rd line was his peak. I think he can get back to that 25-30 point range which is a useful player.

I figured Sheahan would basically be a Callahan type of player if everything went well and fit in as a 2nd/3rd line tweener. Suffice to say, that didn't come together.

What about Cap space? We have $3 million free. Sheahan eats up 2/3 of that. We would need to move some pieces to also fit in AA.

With 11 forwards signed (and Franzen hitting LTIR), that would leave Detroit with 9 signed forwards if we're taking AA and Sheahan. Even if they call up Frk and Svechnikov, they're short.

It would be nice to get both AA and Sheahan, but I think Detroit would be unwise to sell low on Sheahan after last year at a time when they're looking to rebuild. No harm for them in waiting and seeing.
 
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