Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part IX: Trying To Reason With The Upcoming Season

[Gardner McKay]

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[Ghost of jas]

@Ola...I don’t think this is that great a return for MaxPac. It might be better than the Skinner deal. But, look at what Gorton got for Nash, and the return for McDonagh/Miller was better.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

That MaxPac trade on first glance is on the underwhelming side of a ‘fair’ deal IMO

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I think that’s a very good return for Montreal.

Suzuki is a coup IMO. If we got back that level of prospect for Zucc, I’d be stoked. Not to mention the second and getting back a guy who could give you 60-70% of Patches’ production.

 

[Inferno]

That MaxPac trade on first glance is on the underwhelming side of a ‘fair’ deal IMO

I just don't see it at all. Patches is the best player in the deal by a mile. Suzuki will never be as good as him and Tatar is overpaid and kinda....good I guess.

I'd call it a bergevin typical trade...he lost...by a lot.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Tatar at 5.3m for 3 more years is a dump for me. Not a big fan at all.

We'll see what they do with Patches though. If they give a 29 yr old a monster 6-7 year deal, it might all be moot.

If Vegas regresses and sucks, they could potentially even flip him at the TDL and recoup some of that.

 

[Inferno]

Isn't he looking for like 7x9 or something .obscene?

 

[NYR Viper]

Tatar at 5.3m for 3 more years is a dump for me. Not a big fan at all.

We'll see what they do with Patches though. If they give a 29 yr old a monster 6-7 year deal, it might all be moot.

If Vegas regresses and sucks, they could potentially even flip him at the TDL and recoup some of that.

I heard on Sirius XM that Vegas is holding 10% of Tatar's contact so it would be ~$4.77m?

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I just don't see it at all. Patches is the best player in the deal by a mile. Suzuki will never be as good as him and Tatar is overpaid and kinda....good I guess.

I'd call it a bergevin typical trade...he lost...by a lot.

I mean, when you’re trading a star player, 99% of the time you’re only going to get a package of lesser assets in return, so I understand it from that angle. The problem I have is that while Suzuki’s a fine prospect, Tatar and the 2nd aren’t really good enough to fill out the rest of the trade to make it fair. But I’m also not really surprised that the team that spends months tanking the value of their most valuable players that they decide they need to trade keeps getting underwhelming returns for them

 

[Ghost of jas]

I think that’s a very good return for Montreal.

Suzuki is a coup IMO. If we got back that level of prospect for Zucc, I’d be stoked. Not to mention the second and getting back a guy who could give you 60-70% of Patches’ production.

How would you compare Suzuki to both Howden and Hajek? I’m thinking Tatar and Namestnikov are a wash, so, the 1st and conditional 2nd/potential 1st are better than a straight up 2nd. So to say this return is much better than the deal with TB is not accurate.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

We won't get that kind of prospect back for Zucc.

Not only does he not have the pedigree/reputation of Patches, teams will also be paying for a few months+playoffs vs a whole season.

Plus theres the risk of him declining even further.

 

[Webster]

When it comes to Zucc, be prepared for a possible contract extension. I've said this so many times.

Of course he's on the table, so is Hank for that matter. But in Hank's case he has to approve. In Zucc's case the offers have not been good enough.

 

[nyr2k2]

We won't get that kind of prospect back for Zucc.

Not only does he not have the pedigree/reputation of Patches, teams will also be paying for a few months+playoffs vs a whole season.

Plus theres the risk of him declining even further.

Agree in general.

Disagree with the specific point of a full season of control being more valuable than just the stretch run. I mean, there is undeniably more value in having a guy for 82 games as opposed to 20 or whatever; however when you get to the deadline or thereabouts, there are teams that are desperate to add a piece to get in, that feel they're one piece away from a Cup, think they really just need to add one more player to reinforce their position as the favorite, etc. And all of those factors can drive up the price of a rental until it's comparable to or even exceeds that of a guy acquired in the summer.

Of course, this isn't always the case. The opposite, which you stated, can definitely be true. However I'm just making the point that sometimes deadline deals yield stupid returns because teams feel much more pressure at the TDL than they do (or might) in the summer.

 

[Matz03]

It's really a decent deal for Montreal, timing is good since it helps with the tank right away. Suzuki is a really nice prospect. Tatar can be moved at a future deadline again for additional assets.

 

[Lion Hound]

I think this was a win for the Habs on this deal.

Patches wanted out. He's already 29. He's scored over 30 goals 5 times in his career. His next contract is going to be a beast. Patches is certainly the best player in this deal. If he was traded last year the team should have garnered a better deal. Maybe a first instead of a second.

Tatar is not on a terrible contract. Slightly overpaid, but a solid 25 goal guy. Maybe he can pop 30 for the Habs this year? Adding Suzuki in the deal to me is huge. Former 1st round pick who IMO is a tremendous player. The 2nd is gravy.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

The Montreal trade is fair for both sides. It looks a bit bad for Vegas because of what they gave up for Tatar, but Pacioretty is way better than Tatar and will help them now, and in the future.

I saw someone on twitter explain it as basically trading Tatar and a bunch of lottery tickets for a 30 goal scorer who will help Vegas now. Vegas pushing their chips in to try and win that cup, I don't think they'll be as good this year, but god knows they're going to try.

I would also imagine this takes them out of any potential Karlsson move.

 

[I Eat Crow]

We won't get that kind of prospect back for Zucc.

Not only does he not have the pedigree/reputation of Patches, teams will also be paying for a few months+playoffs vs a whole season.

Plus theres the risk of him declining even further.

Have to agree here. Was last year the beginning of the end for Zuccarello, or was it just an off year? He just didn't look right this past year. Was he nursing an injury that wasn't made public? Regardless, I'd deal him this year for what you can get and explore bringing him back in July depending on how he looks this year.

Buyer beware with Pacioretty though. He's 29. Not exactly the fastest of skaters, but should be good for 25 goals a year at least for the next 4-5 years. He's due for a big bounce back year.

 

[Fitzy]

I'm not 100 percent up to date on what Montreal is trying to do- but Pacioretty is gonna get a mad contract at the time when he starts to decline- and he's only ever really been just a streaky goal scorer. Doesn't offer much else for you.

Age works differently for different types of players, and Pacioretty strikes me as more of a Vanek or Gaborik than a MSL or Hossa. He'll give Vegas a couple good years and then you've got a problem contract.

Tatar is a good player- just needs the right scheme. Suzuki probably is worth Howden and Hajek together in terms of real net value. He's the kind of prospect TBL wouldn't let us have in the McDonagh trade.

 

[haveandare]

We won't get that kind of prospect back for Zucc.

Not only does he not have the pedigree/reputation of Patches, teams will also be paying for a few months+playoffs vs a whole season.

Plus theres the risk of him declining even further.

Pacc, primarily a goal scorer, didn't break 40 points or 20 goals last year. How is that not doubly true for him?

I don't think we'll get that kind of prospect back for Zucc because Vegas made a terrible deal. Not sure Pacc has all that much more value though.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Pacc, primarily a goal scorer, didn't break 40 points or 20 goals last year. How is that not doubly true for him?

I don't think we'll get that kind of prospect back for Zucc because Vegas made a terrible deal. Not sure Pacc has all that much more value though.

It is true for Patches but it's no longer a factor since he's been traded. Zucc is still here.

He does have more value than Zucc though, it just works that way with brand names. We've seen it work in our favor as recently as a few months ago (Nash.)

I don't really have a problem with the deal value wise, I'm just not sure what Montreal is trying to accomplish. They've said that they want to win and that makes sense with them going into the first year of Price's extension but they're actions make it look like they want to tear it down, they've looked like they're more committed to rebuilding than the Rangers are.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

There is no risk for Vegas on a Pacioretty contract. They sign him, squeeze a couple more 30 goal seasons out of him, and if he falls off a cliff, you use the inevitable compliance buyout coming after the lockout

 

[haveandare]

There is no risk for Vegas on a Pacioretty contract. They sign him, squeeze a couple more 30 goal seasons out of him, and if he falls off a cliff, you use the inevitable compliance buyout coming after the lockout

The risk would be no more 30 goal seasons and no compliance buyout. Not super likely, but both are possible.

 

[haveandare]

It is true for Patches but it's no longer a factor since he's been traded. Zucc is still here.

He does have more value than Zucc though, it just works that way with brand names. We've seen it work in our favor as recently as a few months ago (Nash.)

I don't really have a problem with the deal value wise, I'm just not sure what Montreal is trying to accomplish. They've said that they want to win and that makes sense with them going into the first year of Price's extension but they're actions make it look like they want to tear it down, they've looked like they're more committed to rebuilding than the Rangers are.

I guess it's hard for me to gauge the larger thoughts on Zucc, but I'd think his brand would be pretty valuable. He's always appeared to be very highly regarded around the league.

I think Pacc returning what he did after a really poor year and with it being public that they absolutely intend to trade him is pretty bad value for Vegas to give up. I think people saw their run and thought McPhee was actually a genius, but it's look more like he's the same horrible trading GM as before, but he managed to catch lightning in a bottle in the expansion draft. Then again I was 100% wrong about Vegas this time last year so what do I know.

 

[Tawnos]

I guess it's hard for me to gauge the larger thoughts on Zucc, but I'd think his brand would be pretty valuable. He's always appeared to be very highly regarded around the league.

I think Pacc returning what he did after a really poor year and with it being public that they absolutely intend to trade him is pretty bad value for Vegas to give up. I think people saw their run and thought McPhee was actually a genius, but it's look more like he's the same horrible trading GM as before, but he managed to catch lightning in a bottle in the expansion draft. Then again I was 100% wrong about Vegas this time last year so what do I know.

I've found that this kind of thing generally has no effect on trade value.

 

[NYR Viper]

I've found that this kind of thing generally has no effect on trade value.

All it takes is 2 teams to be interested and that point of needing to trade him goes out the window